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Acer chairman sees Mac growth stalling in face of ultrabook surge

post #1 of 92
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Acer chairman JT Wang expects Apple's gains in the PC industry to weaken over the next two years as a result of a future surge in sales of notebooks matching Intel's ultrabook design specifications.

Wang admitted that platforms from Apple and Google will join Microsoft and Intel, a partnership often referred to as the Wintel platform, to make up the three major platforms of the PC industry, according to a report from DigiTimes, but he believes new gains from Windows-based PC makers will erase Apple's recent market share growth.

"[Wang] expects Apple platform growth will start weakening in the next two years and the major driver will be replaced by rapid growth of Wintel," the report said. He also added a prediction that sales of devices based on Google's Android platform will flatten out in the PC industry.

The executive went on to claim that ultrabooks will spur surging Wintel growth next year when ultrabook prices drop to $699. For its part, Intel believes it will reach a 40 percent share of the notebook market next year with the ultrabook design it unveiled in May.

Though a separate report from DigiTimes recently claimed that marketing subsidies from Intel would enable as much as 10 percent in price cuts next year, it will likely be difficult for PC vendors to reach the $699 price point. Intel's partners have already had a tough time meeting the chipmaker's sub-$1,000 goal for the specifications. Earlier this year, they reportedly lobbied Intel for a 50 percent cut on ultrabook CPUs because they were struggling to cut costs, but Intel agreed to provide just a 20 percent discount for "first-tier notebook players."

As interest in netbooks have waned and all but a few non-iPad tablets have proved failures in 2011, PC makers have come to view ultrabooks as a beacon of hope. The slide in netbook demand has hit Acer, the No. 1 netbook maker, the hardest, though the company has tepidly voiced its commitment to market the low-margin laptops in emerging markets.

Acer suffered a humbling first-ever quarterly loss earlier this year in part because of competition from stiff Apple's iPad, but Wang believes that interest in tablets is merely a "fever" that will soon recede. Last year, he claimed that the iPad's share of the market will drop to 20 percent.

Meanwhile, Apple has seen sustained growth in Mac shipments in recent years, rapidly outpacing other PC makers. The Mac platform's worldwide market share reached a 15-year high last quarter after pushing past the 5 percent mark. The MacBook Air in particular has seen substantial success, rising to account for 28 percent of Apple's notebook shipments.
post #2 of 92
More like "Acer growth stalling in the face of iPads and MacBook air surge."
post #3 of 92
you don't say Charlie Brown. Boy does this guy have a great track record..

I say they won't sell because the type of people who buy them will complain it does not have a Blu-ray Drive and a Floppy. :-P
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post #4 of 92
Apple is doomed, doomed, says Acer.
post #5 of 92
I can't believe these jokers always predict the demise of Apple based on where they hope their product will go to in years time vs the product and price point Apple has today?
Why do they think it is only their crappy net book that will grow into something better, and the Mac Air will be exactly the same as today? Why would they not be worrying (and predicting)a $299 13" MacBook Air with options they can only now dream of..
post #6 of 92
Wang has put in on the line. Wang said a mouthful.

Seriously, are 10% cuts really going to undermine Apple's long history in this area and economics of scale. If we are only seeing crappy Acer ultrabooks come in at $899 can they really shave another $200 off the price and still turn a profit? Even if they can, will it matter? Apple has owned the 'PC' market profits for years, and does even better in the notebook and >$1000 market segments, so I would expect them to continue to dominate the future of the ultrabook market.

They could even re-release the MacBook as a not as thin, but ODD-less machines that comes in at $799-899 while still turning a good profit. Or even cheaper running Cortex-A15-base chips with 4 or more cores. What would they do then?

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post #7 of 92
It's funny how all these companies are talking about Apple all the time. They, in part, created the hype for Apple.

I wonder why there is no company say "our products will sell because it's great and it's innovative, no matter how our competitors are doing". Probably they are really not innovating.

That leads me to fear now that an operations guy is in charge of Apple instead of an innovative, creative product guy. I fear that even Apple will lose its creative ability and stop innovating. Then we are really entering 1984. Hopefully I am wrong. Prove me wrong, Tim.
post #8 of 92
Who is Wang? What is Acer?
post #9 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Acer chairman JT Wang expects Apple's gains in the PC industry to weaken over the next two years as a result of a future surge in sales of notebooks matching Intel's ultrabook design specifications.

Is this really newsworthy? Here's an example of his fantastic track record: "Acer exec says Apple's 'closed' iPad will drop to 20% market share." He's pulling predictions out of his .
post #10 of 92
Oh, puh-leeezzze!!! I cannot believe how deluded Mr. Wang is!!! I just don't understand how he can possibly believe that!

I guess I could sort of see how ultrabooks might have an effect if they reach the $699 price point he mentioned. But that would be a game of numbers (quantity sold) instead of actual profits. Unless his company has some miracle up their sleeve I assume the low price point is going to come at the expense of quality. And then it starts all over again: the commoditization of this new segment of the market and the "race-to-the-bottom" with razor thin margins that these manufacturers all seem to be blindly pursuing.

I don't get it. Don't they see the pattern? There's a saying that insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.
post #11 of 92
Hahahahahahaha, he has to say things like this! That's his job. Build company morale!

It's funny, "Apple's going down because we're about to flood the market with copies of their proven and successful designs!"
post #12 of 92
This is good news. When Wang comments on Apple, the reverse is generally true.

Just FYI:
2009 Wang: Netbook shipment will reach 50 million in 2010 and Acer to take 40-50% of it
2010 Wang: iPad a fad; market share will drop to 20%
2011 Wang: Android 3.0 will "enhance" tablet experience, Acer to get 15-20% market share by end of 2011.

Time for him to make his 2012 false claim!
post #13 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by caelitus View Post

It's funny how all these companies are talking about Apple all the time. They, in part, created the hype for Apple.

I wonder why there is no company say "our products will sell because it's great and it's innovative, no matter how our competitors are doing". Probably they are really not innovating.

That leads me to fear now that an operations guy is in charge of Apple instead of an innovative, creative product guy. I fear that even Apple will lose its creative ability and stop innovating. Then we are really entering 1984. Hopefully I am wrong. Prove me wrong, Tim.

The difference is this: Tim knows what he is, and is not, good at. And he knows who to look to on the Apple bench for what he's not. He knows that the Apple DNA requires innovation and that he is not the creative genius.

Tim is not going to F up. He's a 100 times smarter than Ballmer, and unlike Ballmer, he knows where his weaknesses are. Perfect.

If I can't have Steve Jobs, I would take Tim Cook as CEO over anybody else in America.

Thompson
post #14 of 92
All he's doing is flinging enough crap on the wall in the hopes something sticks. Then, he can proudly show the world how he was right. Smelly, but right.
post #15 of 92
Mr Wang belongs to the NATO category which stands for No Action Talk Only

And one more thingy about INTEL aren't they price fixing by telling every grandfather grandmother PeeCee manufacturer "to stick" to this price for Ultrabook? Is any USofA politician looking into their books? I might be totally wrong so don't stick a barrel to my head ....
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post #16 of 92
Wintel...Wiiintel....wintelll...Where have I heard that before? That's right, the 1990s, that's where. At the forefront again Mr Wang.

Maybe he is just trying to convince himself.
post #17 of 92
No doubt ultrabooks will get faster and cheaper over the next two years.

But has this guy never heard of the Wayne Gretsky puck metaphor?!
post #18 of 92
Well, if he's wrong, Wang will end up on the street just like former Acer exec Lanci.

If you're going to talk the talk, you better walk the walk, JT.

The biggest issue is profitability at PC-level price points. The margins are razor thin. As an investor, it is worth it to put money into something that returns so little?
post #19 of 92
A $699 ultrabook is an expensive, skinny netbook. Sure, they would get some adherents, but most people would see the difference in quality.

Can Intel sell CPUs to Wintel makers cheaper than they sell them to Apple? I am not sure they would want to go down that road and risk angering Apple who could switch to AMD or put A6 or A7 CPUs into MacBook Airs. Apple is not going to start losing market share. The satisfaction rating is too high. People really do not want to go back to MS. I can see their rate of growth slowing a little, but I think the incursion into the enterprise plus growth in emerging markets will keep up the growth rate.
post #20 of 92
JT Wang is sooo awesome. Everything he says is like a rolling punchline.
Because once you switch to Mac, you can't wait to switch back.

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post #21 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by big View Post

Oh, puh-leeezzze!!! I cannot believe how deluded Mr. Wang is!!! I just don't understand how he can possibly believe that! . . .

Deluded, Mr Wang? Exactly!

Saying it, doesn't make it so Chairman Wang, and paupers wont soon be riding horses. Tis doubtful Apple will suddenly take to sitting on its haunches, as Acer and others choose to do, while Apple was innovating its slim line of Air books and then began cutting pricing. I can see Apple dropping the price on the 11 inch Air as it introduces a 15 inch cousin and it is predicted the iPad 2 will be kept to compete with the cheap wares when the iPad 3 is released.

The iPad and the Air shall continue their reign as TKO couple.

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post #22 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by kgbwnet View Post

This is good news. When Wang comments on Apple, the reverse is generally true.

Just FYI:
2009 Wang: Netbook shipment will reach 50 million in 2010 and Acer to take 40-50% of it
2010 Wang: iPad a fad; market share will drop to 20%
2011 Wang: Android 3.0 will "enhance" tablet experience, Acer to get 15-20% market share by end of 2011.

Time for him to make his 2012 false claim!

yep, and acer is now ditching the ghetto PC market because it makes NO money.

i can't believe the guy is still allowed to run the company after comments like these.
post #23 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr View Post

The difference is this: Tim knows what he is, and is not, good at. And he knows who to look to on the Apple bench for what he's not. He knows that the Apple DNA requires innovation and that he is not the creative genius.

Tim is not going to F up. He's a 100 times smarter than Ballmer, and unlike Ballmer, he knows where his weaknesses are. Perfect.

If I can't have Steve Jobs, I would take Tim Cook as CEO over anybody else in America.

Thompson

I would take Larry Blankfein over at Goldman in a HEARTBEAT. Man knows how to create cash from absolutely NOTHING. Nobody can defraud a (going to be former) powerhouse nation like Blankfein.
post #24 of 92
Ultrabooks for $699 sometime next year? BFD.
Order a refurb. MacBook Air right now from Apple for $799.
post #25 of 92
Acer suffers from foot in mouth syndrome, much like many of Apple's competitors.

They need to lay off the crack at Acer. It leads to people making dumb statements, though it does provide for good comedy.

Acer's creator Stan Shih calls iPad, MacBook Air "short-term phenomena"

http://www.tuaw.com/2011/08/05/acers...hort-term-phe/

Here's another real smart guy at Acer claiming that the fever for tablet PC's will recede. He's right about tablet PC's, as those have been miserable failures, but he was obviously talking about the iPad (but didn't want to mention it by name) when he made his jealous and deranged comment.

The chairman said while he expects the "fever" for tablet PCs receding and notebooks regaining consumer interest, Acer will still see a loss in the third quarter, though it would be better than the second quarter.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7JO0HP20110824
post #26 of 92
Quote:
...new gains from Windows-based PC makers will erase Apple's recent market share growth

That could be true assuming Apple stood still and stop innovating. Which means .....
post #27 of 92
Acer makes Samsung look like an innovator.
post #28 of 92
A possible scernario: Windows 8 makes a marginal hit, but given the 95+% marketshare of Windows, it is a significant impact to the market. In parallel, Nokia brings out its Windows Phones. Now, all you Apple people out there, the big thing to note is that Microsoft and Nokia don't have to produce markedly superior products to beat Apple at the numbers game. Microsoft and Nokia have to just produce something that is adequate for most people's needs. So it's possible that a not-insubstantial portion of PC users quite like Windows 8 -- I think it's not bad, and, as a Mac fanboy, I actually liked my test of Windows Phone -- there could be a mini-halo effect where people become aware of the Windows Phone platform. From my circle of friends, most people are not even aware that Microsoft Phone 7.5 is an option, so the advent of Windows 8 could bring the Windows platform to the awareness of the masses who don't know computers well enough to know the difference between Mac and PC. You and I all have friends who ask the question - "Should I go with iPhone or Android". You see, to them, it's all the same. Also in the next year, the PC manufacturers get their act together with building good looking Ultrabooks and thin tablets. And a portion of people are attracted to the Windows 8 tablet platform because it's designed to get work done (content-creation), rather than Apple's overtly content-consumption approach. Even though Microsoft has been slow out of the blocks with its App Store, the sheer overwhelming number of PC software developers mean that in a short time Microsoft's App Store has caught up to the Apple App Store in terms of meeting the average user's needs. i.e. Microsoft might not have caught up in sheer app numbers, but virtually every function that a user needs is covered by at least some app. Thus, inspite of Apple's superior software/hardware platform, the status quo in 7 years time is similar to what we see with desktops. There's my prophecy, folks. Send me $5 bucks in 5 years time if I'm right. (Oh, I'm an Apple fan, with a purchase record of over 15 Macs, several iPods, and two iPhones - and currently have 5 working Macs.
post #29 of 92
Everyone used to say Mac was more expensive, but now PC vendors are having trouble matching their price. How times change.
post #30 of 92
Wang by name. Wang by nature.
post #31 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiteRabbit View Post

More like "Acer growth stalling in the face of iPads and MacBook air surge."

You took the words right out of my mouth!
That Acer guy sounds like a crack pot.
Slimming down a notebook pc with Windows ain't going to make that sh** any better. It is the Mac experience baby.
post #32 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by akhomerun View Post

yep, and acer is now ditching the ghetto PC market because it makes NO money.

i can't believe the guy is still allowed to run the company after comments like these.

He must be getting drunk with Diddy on a bottle of Ciroc because that fools talks too much.
But Wang ain't seen nothing yet. Apple will hit 100 billion in the bank by the end of the fall 2012. The iPad 3 and iPhone 5 will devastate the competition.
post #33 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

...Acer suffered a humbling first-ever quarterly loss earlier this year in part because of competition from stiff Apple's iPad,...



(Juvenile, I know...)
post #34 of 92
Sometimes that growth recedes it is the nature of any business. However if you look at Apples AIRs they are just starting to gain the capabilities to encourage wider market acceptance. The 2011 rev has hit the tipping point of acceptability. When the Ivy Bridge AIRs arrive I suspect that sales will just accelerate. Rapidly.

Outside of the AIRs I do see trouble for Apples desktop lineup. There the line is stagnet and is suffering from neglect. This is an internal problem for Apple, Acer can take credit but it is undeserved.

In any event I think this thread highlights why Apple insists on tight lips. Public statements can be twisted and bent in creative ways if you don't have product to backup those claims.
post #35 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by kgbwnet View Post

This is good news. When Wang comments on Apple, the reverse is generally true.

Just FYI:
2009 Wang: Netbook shipment will reach 50 million in 2010 and Acer to take 40-50% of it
2010 Wang: iPad a fad; market share will drop to 20%
2011 Wang: Android 3.0 will "enhance" tablet experience, Acer to get 15-20% market share by end of 2011.

Time for him to make his 2012 false claim!

I love how he thought the iPad would be a fad... and then they came out with tablets of their own...
post #36 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

He must be getting drunk with Diddy on a bottle of Ciroc because that fools talks too much.
But Wang ain't seen nothing yet. Apple will hit 100 billion in the bank by the end of the fall 2012. The iPad 3 and iPhone 5 will devastate the competition.

I'm very hopeful that iPad 3 will live up to expectations. But we could just get an iPad 2S. My iPad 1 is probably the most impressive Apple device I own, I'm hoping Apple can make the 3 version a standout but a lot if things have to all come together to make that happen.
post #37 of 92
The way I see it, Ultrabooks priced at $699 are only going to eat into sales of similarly priced Wintel notebooks. A person who wants a Mac will buy a Mac, whether it is an Air or a Pro. But a person who has a budget of about $600 may decide that $100 more for a nice slim (second-rate MBA imitator) may be worth it. So, they may not really sell more notebooks, let alone eat into the MBA's marketshare.

So if we see a report late next year saying that total sales of Ultrabooks exceeds 50 million units, I will be very interested to see what the difference is between sales of other laptops between this year and next year.

When I decided to buy my first Mac in 2009 (newbie, I know!), I decided to buy the 27" iMac. For the price I could have got a great Wintel BTO, but my priority was that it had to be a Mac.

I assume anybody who wants a Mac will buy one. No one gets a budget and then decides whether to buy a Mac or a Windows machine. They decide first and then create a budget.
post #38 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4miler View Post

A possible scernario: Windows 8 makes a marginal hit, but given the 95+% marketshare of Windows, it is a significant impact to the market. In parallel, Nokia brings out its Windows Phones. Now, all you Apple people out there, the big thing to note is that Microsoft and Nokia don't have to produce markedly superior products to beat Apple at the numbers game. Microsoft and Nokia have to just produce something that is adequate for most people's needs. So it's possible that a not-insubstantial portion of PC users quite like Windows 8 -- I think it's not bad, and, as a Mac fanboy, I actually liked my test of Windows Phone -- there could be a mini-halo effect where people become aware of the Windows Phone platform. From my circle of friends, most people are not even aware that Microsoft Phone 7.5 is an option, so the advent of Windows 8 could bring the Windows platform to the awareness of the masses who don't know computers well enough to know the difference between Mac and PC. You and I all have friends who ask the question - "Should I go with iPhone or Android". You see, to them, it's all the same. Also in the next year, the PC manufacturers get their act together with building good looking Ultrabooks and thin tablets. And a portion of people are attracted to the Windows 8 tablet platform because it's designed to get work done (content-creation), rather than Apple's overtly content-consumption approach. Even though Microsoft has been slow out of the blocks with its App Store, the sheer overwhelming number of PC software developers mean that in a short time Microsoft's App Store has caught up to the Apple App Store in terms of meeting the average user's needs. i.e. Microsoft might not have caught up in sheer app numbers, but virtually every function that a user needs is covered by at least some app. Thus, inspite of Apple's superior software/hardware platform, the status quo in 7 years time is similar to what we see with desktops. There's my prophecy, folks. Send me $5 bucks in 5 years time if I'm right. (Oh, I'm an Apple fan, with a purchase record of over 15 Macs, several iPods, and two iPhones - and currently have 5 working Macs.


You're absolutely right of course, the rest of the industry in three or four years will have caught up to where apple is in 2011.

However, by that time Apple will have continued to evolve, innovate and kead the way.

Apple do not want the majority of the market, they want to appeal as an aspirational brand and make money at the top of the market, not with the bottom feeders and copiers.

They are doing just fine.

post #39 of 92
When Apple talks about the future, the suggestion is that there are some interesting projects being worked on that will produce significant gains for the consumer. When executives with other companies talk about the future, they sound like executives focused on figuring out how to turn a profit, grab more market share, and generally all the sort of stuff the average consumer doesn't give a darn about.

If you're talking to the media, your audience is pretty much the end user. Speaking a language that appeals to the end user would be a good idea. Apple gets that, thanks largely to the showmanship of Steve Jobs and the success he had with that approach. Apple needs to continue to focus on producing progressively better products as seen from the perspective of the end user. When talking about what's coming, that also has to be the focus.

Let the Sonys, Microsofts and Acers of the world give off a typically corporate vibe when addressing the media. It's what they do. Apple puts the consumer first and lets profits flow from that. Seems to be working. I've long believed that if you do right by your customers, you will never go wrong. I'm pleased when I see a company excel as a result of excellence that enhances our lives. It encourages companies to pursue excellence. If producing cheap products is the key to success, we're all doomed to living in a world in which there is a race towards inferior products. That companies fail at such a race is a good thing. There is already too much mediocrity, if not downright incompetence, in the world. It's not what we should strive for.
post #40 of 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Acer chairman JT Wang expects Apple's gains in the PC industry to weaken over the next two years as a result of a future surge in sales of notebooks matching Intel's ultrabook design specifications.

Wang admitted that platforms from Apple and Google will join Microsoft and Intel, a partnership often referred to as the Wintel platform, to make up the three major platforms of the PC industry, according to a report from DigiTimes, but he believes new gains from Windows-based PC makers will erase Apple's recent market share growth.

"[Wang] expects Apple platform growth will start weakening in the next two years and the major driver will be replaced by rapid growth of Wintel," the report said. He also added a prediction that sales of devices based on Google's Android platform will flatten out in the PC industry.

The executive went on to claim that ultrabooks will spur surging Wintel growth next year when ultrabook prices drop to $699. For its part, Intel believes it will reach a 40 percent share of the notebook market next year with the ultrabook design it unveiled in May.

What? [Wang] must be a smoking crack.
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