Originally Posted by asdasd
You contradict yourself. If they are selling an eco-system they need overall market leadership, or a large share. . you also contradict Tim Cook, who points to the 95% yet to get (in all phones), and which he is interested in.
Oh, don't worry, there is plenty to go around still, and a long ways to go yet...
"Smartphone" share of all mobile phone use is very small:
Horace Dediu of Asymco writes, "Global smartphone penetration nearing 10%"
As smartphones replace and grow into the overall current market of existing mobile phones and subs, the smart phone market is going to grow and grow for a good while yet -- probably faster than any apparent acceleration in Android activations.
Android is flavor of the year. What a lot of people don't seem to recognize is that it is merely holding the status quo, it is a placeholder. OEM's will drop it in a minute if something else comes along.
Google started it simply to hedge against Windows Mobile. That worked. But it is just something free that OEMs use to sell phones. It replaces java or symbian or whatever else they might have used in the past.
So all these millions of phones have to run something... and of course OEMs are going to go for what is a "modern", "smart", robust mobile OS that you can install apps on. They have to go with something like that, because Apple revealed the future in 2007 and that's what many people want. Google steps in and fills a void with Android, quickly adding Touch UI, etc. This is the status quo, nothing more, nothing less.
If Amazon licenses out some clone (why not, Google stole a lot from Sun/Oracle), or if WebOS gets OpenSource or becomes viable in some way... OEMs will use them and there goes a load of Android activations. Many OEMs are already hedging their bets with 2 or 3 OS choices.
So, where can Apple go? Nowhere but up: billions of "non-consumers" (feature phones users out there); and certainly, Apple gets switchers from Android, etc. Do iPhones users switch to Android? NOt hardly.