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Christmas Day activation numbers suggest iOS topped Android by 1.6M

post #1 of 80
Thread Starter 
New data from a variety of sources suggests the combination of the iPhone, iPad and iPod touch was enough for iOS activations to top Google Android on Christmas Day by more than 1.6 million units.

Parsing out some of the latest data, Philip Elmer-Dewitt of Fortune reported on Wednesday that at least 4.2 million iOS devices were activated on Dec. 25. That compares to a total of 3.7 million Android devices activated on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, according to Google Android Chief Andy Rubin.

In years past, Android activations have seen a boost of about 50 percent on Christmas Eve. So with at least 1.1 million Android devices assumed activated on Christmas Eve (up from its usual daily total of 700,000), Christmas Day Android activations would be 2.6 million.

Subtracting that estimated total from recently released data from Flurry Analytics gives the estimated total of 4.2 million activated iOS devices. Flurry revealed on Tuesday that iOS and Android activations combined grew 353 percent on Christmas day, reaching 6.8 million units. A breakdown of iOS versus Android devices was not given.

Apple's estimated 4.2 million iOS activations on Christmas Day would give Apple a 1.6 million unit lead over Google's Android. Both platforms are available on smartphones, tablets and media players.

"Given that Android phones outsold iPhones by 2:1 worldwide in the second quarter of 2011 and more than 3:1 in the third quarter," Elmer-Dewitt wrote, "it's likely that if Apple did beat Android in the Christmas bake-off by more than a million and a half units, sales of the iPad and iPad touch probably accounted for the difference."

Rubin announced last week that Android device activations had reached 700,000 per day. Apple has not revealed its daily device activations in over a year, and did not share any data about Christmas activations, but did state in October that it had sold more than 250 million iOS devices to date.

Estimates based on Flurry Analytics and Google tweets. Source: Fortune.

The data from Google also does not include the Amazon Kindle Fire, which runs a heavily modified version of Android and does not show up in activations for the mobile operating system. Amazon has said that it has sold millions of the Kindle Fire and that it is its best-selling device, but has declined to give specific figures.

Apple's sales figures for the iPhone, iPad and iPod touch will be revealed next month, when the company holds its quarterly earnings conference call. That will cover the company's first fiscal quarter of 2012, which runs through December and includes the holiday shopping season.
post #2 of 80
Apple Is Doomed

post #3 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


"Given that Android phones outsold iPhones by 2:1 worldwide in the second quarter of 2011 and more than 3:1 in the third quarter,"

I didn't realize that Android phones outsold the iPhone by a 3:1 margin. I thought that Android outsold iOS by 2 to 1.


When the Android tablet makers start coming out with ICS tablets, will the tablet market share revert to this same ratio? Looking at Amazon's list of best-selling tablets, the iPad is nowhere near the top already. 2012 is going to be a great year for the consumer!
post #4 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

Apple Is Doomed


Not unexpected since we're talking about all iOS-based devices (for once). Since a 2-year contract is required for a smartphone in the US that adds an extra challenge as a gift. This gives the iPad and iPod Touch some advantage in the activations, and since Android OS has failed to make a dent in the PMP or tablet market this goes to iOS. If we count only smartphones I would expect Android OS to have bested iPhone iOS by its usual amount.

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post #5 of 80
Where's slapppy to tell us these numbers are wrong? Or that this is the "last hurrah" of a dying Apple?

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post #6 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Where's slapppy to tell us these numbers are wrong?

He's waiting for more of his fans to join the thread. Keep sitting there waiting for his arrival. You'll know he's close when a hush falls over the crowd.
post #7 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Where's slapppy to tell us these numbers are wrong? Or that this is the "last hurrah" of a dying Apple?

That's why I came into this thread. His comments are pure comedy gold
post #8 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Where's slapppy to tell us these numbers are wrong? Or that this is the "last hurrah" of a dying Apple?

"It won't last. Apple's focus on customer service, brand loyalty, and ability to make healthy profits will be their death because they aren't pointlessly going after marketshare with low-quality products with no support or profit margin."

How is that? I think I used too many adult words.

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #9 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Apple's sales figures for the iPhone, iPad and iPod touch will be revealed next month, when the company holds its quarterly earnings conference call. That will cover the company's first fiscal quarter of 2012, which runs through December and includes the holiday shopping season.

the earnings call is scheduled for monday, january 23. that's a few days later than usual ... they must need some extra time to add up all those sales numbers.
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post #10 of 80
So now it's a contest to see who has the biggest penis? Market share does matter to iOS fans even though we say it doesn't? I'm as guilty as the next fanboy but even I'm starting to get tired of this constant one- upsman-ship. We don't need to worry about what Abdroid is up to.
post #11 of 80
Retarded math
post #12 of 80
This is obviously due to the fact that little to no one actually gives smartphones on christmas due to complications in upgrading/contracts. Most of theae christmas activations are ipods touches and ipads.
post #13 of 80
What is with Apple Insider no longer posting links to sources??? They drop all these numbers and statistics but zero references.

"New data from a variety of sources "

WHAT SOURCES?
post #14 of 80
According to Philip Elmer Dewitt at Fortune, Flurry's activation numbers DO include the Amazon Fire as an "Android activation."

Which really makes these numbers interesting.
post #15 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by bongo View Post

This is obviously due to the fact that little to no one actually gives smartphones on christmas due to complications in upgrading/contracts. Most of theae christmas activations are ipods touches and ipads.

If what you say is true, then ~3.7 million Android Tablets were activated Christmas eve and day -- excluding Kindle Fire and Nook.
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post #16 of 80
I mentioned this is another thread when someone was trying to claim Android beat iOS handily in Christmas activations.

With two different sources for figures using two different methods of determining activations over two (supposedly) different timeframes and adding a third guesstimate based on previous years estimated results, even the author notes that any claims as to who did what on what day is simply guesswork.

"Without a press release from Apple (AAPL) crowing about their Christmas sales, we're forced to rely on data from a mobile analytics firm and tweets from a Google (GOOG) senior vice president to make some rough guesses."
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/12/...tmas-bake-off/

Still a fun read relying on some assumptions to arrive at the basis for a story, but certainly not definitive enough for reliable hard numbers.
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post #17 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vendrazi View Post

According to Philip Elmer Dewitt at Fortune, Flurry's activation numbers DO include the Amazon Fire as an "Android activation."

Which really makes these numbers interesting.

True. "New data from a variety of sources" claim 4.2 Million iOS devices, Android claims 3.7 Million devices equaling 7.9 Million devices NOT including the Fire, Flurry claims 6.8 Million devices between Android and iOS, including Fire. I honestly think no onw knows. What we do know is that is was a steller year for Apple and Google.
post #18 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I mentioned this is another thread when someone was trying to claim Android beat iOS handily in Christmas activations.

With two different sources for figures using two different methods of determining activations over two (supposedly) different timeframes and adding a third guesstimate based on previous years estimated results, even the author notes that any claims as to who did what on what day is simply guesswork.

"Without a press release from Apple (AAPL) crowing about their Christmas sales, we're forced to rely on data from a mobile analytics firm and tweets from a Google (GOOG) senior vice president to make some rough guesses."
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/12/...tmas-bake-off/

Still a fun read relying on some assumptions to arrive at the basis for a story, but certainly not definitive enough for reliable hard numbers.

Sooooooo, what you are saying is, know one knows
post #19 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


"Without a press release from Apple (AAPL) crowing about their Christmas sales, we're forced to rely on data from a mobile analytics firm and tweets from a Google (GOOG) senior vice president to make some rough guesses."
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2011/12/...tmas-bake-off/

While we're reading tea leaves, does the absence of a press release from Apple mean anything, in this context? I know Apple has a habit of issuing statements about first-day sales of new products, but does it ever do the same for Xmas numbers?

This is kind of like measuring how many feet General X was standing from Minister Y at Kim Il Jong's funeral. But sometimes, that's all the hard data you've got.
post #20 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vendrazi View Post

According to Philip Elmer Dewitt at Fortune, Flurry's activation numbers DO include the Amazon Fire as an "Android activation."

Which really makes these numbers interesting.

PED doesn't actually say that... But you could infer that from the Way the article was written.

If true, and we accept the 2.6 million Christmas Day Android devices, then Flurry's numbers are

6.8 mm iOS + Android + Android Forks

And

6.8 mm - 2.6 mm == 4.2 iOS + Android Forks

I SWAG there were between 1-2 mm Android Forks

...that leaves between 2.2 mm and 3.2 mm iOS devices???
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post #21 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hellacool View Post

True. "New data from a variety of sources" claim 4.2 Million iOS devices, Android claims 3.7 Million devices equaling 7.9 Million devices NOT including the Fire, Flurry claims 6.8 Million devices between Android and iOS, including Fire. I honestly think no onw knows. What we do know is that is was a steller year for Apple and Google.

Yep. Better for Apple than Google since Apple actually makes money off of their product. Google not so much.
post #22 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steven N. View Post

Yep. Better for Apple than Google since Apple actually makes money off of their product. Google not so much.

Same as it ever was ~ David Byrne, 1984
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post #23 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steven N. View Post

Yep. Better for Apple than Google since Apple actually makes money off of their product. Google not so much.

That's what I was thinking. Apple sees real dollars from every sale. Google hopes and prays for ad revenue from each device.
post #24 of 80
IMHO Google recognizes they need to spread their wings a bit more if they're to maintain their excellent profit margins. Do a little web research and it's clear they've got some pretty heavy projects underway, yet managing to keep them off the radar.

I fully expect to see Google-branded hardware this next year, and it won't be in smartphones or tablets. They've assured their partners they weren't playing fav's in those markets. What I do expect is a potentially market-changing product moving way beyond current bulky smart-devices for navigation, information-retrieval and searches.

Personally I see hardware in Google's future instead of just ad placement revenue.
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post #25 of 80
Ok... I closed this window, but opened it again because... I don't know... I'm an idiot for posting this... but...

Why does Google have to lose for Apple to win?

Why does America have to vociferously ALWAYS choose sides? Red State/Blue State... MS/Apple/Google... Winner/Loser .... Rulez/Sukz ???

I'm just happy that people are moving along and embracing technology. Period!

As many know, I'm quite the Apple Fanboy... but this bashing and parsing of fictitious numbers, with "guestimate" mathematics, is getting quite old.

Apple = 5% share of ANY market they are in, will continue to make boat-loads of money for their investors, and for future research and products.

MS or Google = 95% of the market in anything, will net them marketshare only, and a few bucks for licenses and/or search. Their fans, regardless, will get on with their choice just fine. LET THEM!

At the end, Apple will still be the most valuable tech company on the face of the planet, with legions of satisfied customers using desirable and exceptional user-experience products.

Show me the blow-out quarter results.... and until then, "Flurious Statistics" be damned! Who. Cares?!?
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post #26 of 80
The three people I know who have Androids want an iPhone.

Android = Training wheels for iPhone.

Kindle = Training wheels for iPad.
post #27 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

IMHO Google recognizes they need to spread their wings a bit more if they're to maintain their excellent profit margins. Do a little web research and it's clear they've got some pretty heavy projects underway, yet managing to keep them off the radar.

I fully expect to see Google-branded hardware this next year, and it won't be in smartphones or tablets. They've assured their partners they weren't playing fav's in those markets. What I do expect is a potentially market-changing product moving way beyond current bulky smart-devices for navigation, information-retrieval and searches.

Personally I see hardware in Google's future instead of just ad placement revenue.

Not too far fetched an idea. I think they're going to have to. Because the elephant and 1000lb. gorilla is still in it's cage. And we all know who that is. That is who is going to give Google a run for the money... for the "left overs" that is.
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post #28 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePixelDoc View Post

Why does America have to vociferously ALWAYS choose sides? Red State/Blue State... MS/Apple/Google... Winner/Loser .... Rulez/Sukz ???

That isn't a US/America thing it's a part of our very make up right down to the core of our being. There is good and evil, right and wrong as concepts. There are male and female, acid and base in nature. There is nothing American about it.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #29 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzpolice View Post

While we're reading tea leaves, does the absence of a press release from Apple mean anything, in this context? I know Apple has a habit of issuing statements about first-day sales of new products, but does it ever do the same for Xmas numbers?

I've been following Apple closely since even before Steve Jobs came back.

And the answer is "no". I have never seen them release any Xmas numbers via a press release. They release the relevant numbers at the January earnings conference call, but they don't break it out down to a day, like Christmas day. And back when they were doing MacWorld keynotes, sometimes they would tip their hand with some numbers on a couple of charts, but once again, it usually didn't specify Christmas day, or any other day, for that matter.

And absolutely no such press releases. So, unless Apple is about to drop an invitation to an upcoming media event on us (and I doubt that) then we won't really hear any numbers about iOS devices until the earnings report. And it will cover the entire quarter, most likely.

Thompson
post #30 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

Apple Is Doomed


Maybe not Doomed, but at the very least Beleaguered.
post #31 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePixelDoc View Post

Ok... I closed this window, but opened it again because... I don't know... I'm an idiot for posting this... but...

Why does Google have to lose for Apple to win?

Is it because a divided people are easier to conquer? I feel like Apple and Google (and all other huge money making businesses) continually try to Kaizer Soze us.
post #32 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleZilla View Post

The three people I know who have Androids want an iPhone.

Android = Training wheels for iPhone.

Kindle = Training wheels for iPad.

You can state this all you want.... and some android phones are small boy phones compared with the iphones... others have features that make them compete directly with the iphone 4s.... Still this doesn't really matter, as some people don't need all the features (which is why apple still sells the iphone 3GS and iphone 4).

As far as the kindle being training wheels for the ipad... this is true in the same respect.... The kindle doesn't do everything an iphone can do, but does that mean these people are going to later buy an ipad, or even consider it? For many people, and ipad is overkill. Sure, it may have a dual core processor, and awesome graphics capabilities.... But if you use the device for reading websites and books... .WHO CARES??? If the most complicated game that you play is angry birds, what does it matter?

Most people don't need the power of an a5 processor in their tablet. I do see the kindle taking market share amongst more budget minded consumers who want something cheap, portable, with good battery life that they can use to consume content. Paying over twice as much for an ipad doesn't make sense to these people, and I can't blame them.

Personally, I'm holding out for an ipad3, but I want the processing power, and consider myself a power user. Therefore I'll pay the (large) premium that apple is charging.

Phil
post #33 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Retarded math

Guys.... these numbers were reached using this math:
Quote:
In years past, Android activations have seen a boost of about 50 percent on Christmas Eve. So with at least 1.1 million Android devices assumed activated on Christmas Eve (up from its usual daily total of 700,000), Christmas Day Android activations would be 2.6 million.

Subtracting that estimated total from recently released data from Flurry Analytics gives the estimated total of 4.2 million activated iOS devices. Flurry revealed on Tuesday that iOS and Android activations combined grew 353 percent on Christmas day, reaching 6.8 million units. A breakdown of iOS versus Android devices was not given.

It's total crap! They assume that the christmastime sales bump from years past is the same as it is this year and use that (garbage in) to infer Apple sales this year (garbage out).

This is total crap! Not worth discussion!
post #34 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

PED doesn't actually say that...

Actually, in the comments to the article, he says he has an email from Flurry saying that the Android numbers Flurry is reporting include the Amazon Fire.
post #35 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

[...] Flurry revealed on Tuesday that iOS and Android activations combined grew 353 percent on Christmas day, reaching 6.8 million units. A breakdown of iOS versus Android devices was not given. [...]

I wonder why Flurry didn't give separate numbers for iOS and Android. It's like saying "Toyota and Honda sold a combined n.n million cars last quarter." It's meaningless to lump competitors' sales numbers together like that. It would have made more sense if Flurry had summed up the entire market and published a story containing something like: "Mobile OS activations combined grew nnn percent on Christmas day..." Why did they add the numbers together into a single iOS + Android activation count?

Maybe they wanted to attract readers, since the Apple vs. Google OS war is a hot topic now. And maybe they're afraid of appearing biased in favor of Apple. Because, as we all know, being "biased" now means "reporting facts that are embarrassing to one or more persons or groups." It used to mean "partisan" and/or "prejudiced" and/or "unfair."

The word "biased" has lost its meaning. To appear "unbiased" and "objective" you need to hide your real feelings. To not express too strong an opinion on anything unless you're willing to facetiously and hypocritically contradict your own statements. To appease those who disagree. I understand that "The Media" in general needs to attract the largest possible audience. But hiding numbers when they might be embarrassing to one group is blatant pandering. Bait and switch. Click bait. Whatever you want to call it.

I suppose the English language, like most languages, will inevitably change over time. Even the word "hate" has lost its meaning now. Now, if you say anything critical of another person or group, you're accused of being a "hater." Times change.

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post #36 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzpolice View Post

While we're reading tea leaves, does the absence of a press release from Apple mean anything, in this context? I know Apple has a habit of issuing statements about first-day sales of new products, but does it ever do the same for Xmas numbers?

This is kind of like measuring how many feet General X was standing from Minister Y at Kim Il Jong's funeral. But sometimes, that's all the hard data you've got.

Apple mentions numbers until they get to some large number, then they may mention it only when it reaches something specific.
post #37 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

IMHO Google recognizes they need to spread their wings a bit more if they're to maintain their excellent profit margins. Do a little web research and it's clear they've got some pretty heavy projects underway, yet managing to keep them off the radar.

I fully expect to see Google-branded hardware this next year, and it won't be in smartphones or tablets. They've assured their partners they weren't playing fav's in those markets. What I do expect is a potentially market-changing product moving way beyond current bulky smart-devices for navigation, information-retrieval and searches.

Personally I see hardware in Google's future instead of just ad placement revenue.

So, that sounds interesting. Your description is vague though. Can you spell out more definitely what you expect this to be?
post #38 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePixelDoc View Post

Ok... I closed this window, but opened it again because... I don't know... I'm an idiot for posting this... but...

Why does Google have to lose for Apple to win?

Why does America have to vociferously ALWAYS choose sides? Red State/Blue State... MS/Apple/Google... Winner/Loser .... Rulez/Sukz ???

I'm just happy that people are moving along and embracing technology. Period!

As many know, I'm quite the Apple Fanboy... but this bashing and parsing of fictitious numbers, with "guestimate" mathematics, is getting quite old.

Apple = 5% share of ANY market they are in, will continue to make boat-loads of money for their investors, and for future research and products.

MS or Google = 95% of the market in anything, will net them marketshare only, and a few bucks for licenses and/or search. Their fans, regardless, will get on with their choice just fine. LET THEM!

At the end, Apple will still be the most valuable tech company on the face of the planet, with legions of satisfied customers using desirable and exceptional user-experience products.

Show me the blow-out quarter results.... and until then, "Flurious Statistics" be damned! Who. Cares?!?

It's called FUN. It's fun to do this. Why not?
post #39 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Guys.... these numbers were reached using this math:

It's total crap! They assume that the christmastime sales bump from years past is the same as it is this year and use that (garbage in) to infer Apple sales this year (garbage out).

This is total crap! Not worth discussion!

It might be, and it might not be. If the bump is about 50% for several years running, then it means a lot. If its just one year before they're basing it on, then it may mean little, if previous years were much different. You can't assume the numbers mean little without knowing more about them.
post #40 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by SockRolid View Post

I wonder why Flurry didn't give separate numbers for iOS and Android. It's like saying "Toyota and Honda sold a combined n.n million cars last quarter." It's meaningless to lump competitors' sales numbers together like that. It would have made more sense if Flurry had summed up the entire market and published a story containing something like: "Mobile OS activations combined grew nnn percent on Christmas day..." Why did they add the numbers together into a single iOS + Android activation count?

Maybe they wanted to attract readers, since the Apple vs. Google OS war is a hot topic now. And maybe they're afraid of appearing biased in favor of Apple. Because, as we all know, being "biased" now means "reporting facts that are embarrassing to one or more persons or groups." It used to mean "partisan" and/or "prejudiced" and/or "unfair."

The word "biased" has lost its meaning. To appear "unbiased" and "objective" you need to hide your real feelings. To not express too strong an opinion on anything unless you're willing to facetiously and hypocritically contradict your own statements. To appease those who disagree. I understand that "The Media" in general needs to attract the largest possible audience. But hiding numbers when they might be embarrassing to one group is blatant pandering. Bait and switch. Click bait. Whatever you want to call it.

I suppose the English language, like most languages, will inevitably change over time. Even the word "hate" has lost its meaning now. Now, if you say anything critical of another person or group, you're accused of being a "hater." Times change.

Flurry and other companies that do this work charge a pretty penny for their reports, which contain far more detail and info than they release to the public. As companies do buy them, or they would be out of business, they must be useful, and accurate enough for subscribers to use to base their own businesses upon.
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