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Apple could collect $10 for every Android device sold, expert says

post #1 of 214
Thread Starter 
If Apple were to abandon its lawsuits against Android smartphone manufacturers and instead negotiate licensing fees for its patented technology, one expert believes Apple could collect $10 for each Android device sold.

Kevin Rivette, managing partner at intellectual property firm 3LP Advisors LLC, said in an interview with Bloomberg that he believes Apple could probably collect up to $10 in royalties for every Android device sold. That would be twice the $5 per unit Microsoft is believed to receive for each HTC Android device sold.

But Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs indicated before he died to biographer Walter Isaacson that he had no interest in licensing Apple's patented technology to Android manufacturers. Jobs said he believed Android was a "stolen product," and indicated he was "willing to go thermonuclear war" to stop it.

That aggressive approach could be detrimental to Apple shareholders, Rivette believes, because it is prompting device makers to modify their infringing products and work around Apple's intellectual property. Instead, Rivette thinks Apple should reach settlements in cases where it can't win import restrictions against competing devices.

"A scorched-earth strategy is bad news because it doesn't optimize the value of their patents -- because people will get around them," Rivette told Bloomberg.

"It's like a dam. Using their patents to keep rivals out is like putting rocks in a stream. The stream is going to find a way around. Wouldn't it be better to direct where the water goes?"

Evidence of how Android smartphone makers will work around Apple's intellectual property has come in a few cases already. Earlier this month, the U.S. International Trade Commission found that HTC was in violation of an Apple patent related to "Data Detectors," but only a day later HTC said it was testing new devices that work around Apple's patent. As a result, the ITC's ruling is not expected to have an immediate impact on either HTC or Apple.



Similarly, after Apple found legal success with its patented iPhone and iPad designs in Germany, Samsung opted to redesign its Galaxy Tab 10.1 tablet with thicker edges and speakers that accompany the front screen. With those changes, it is not expected that Apple will win a ban on sales of the Galaxy Tab 10.1N in Germany.

While Apple has opted to sue, Microsoft has forged licensing agreements with more than half of Android device makers. The Redmond, Wash., software giant has agreements in place with Samsung, HTC, Acer and Viewsonic, while lawsuits against Motorola Mobility, Barnes & Noble and others continue.
post #2 of 214
Or Apple sticks to their guns, wins, and collects $10 in damages per device AND keeps the tech only at Apple like Steve wanted

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #3 of 214
With a reported 700,000 activations per day average that is 63,000,000 per quarter which is $630,000,000 in profit for Apple. If we figure 30M iPhones and 15M iPads with an average sale price of $630 we get $28.350B which means $5.67B in net profits if we consider 20%.

So why is Apple suing over licensing if we're talking about billions per year in profit? Does this legitimize the thievery? Would Samsung have licensed from Apple all the trademarks and patents they stole or would Apple have been laughed at when trying to ink deals from vendors?

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #4 of 214
The stream analogy is an interesting one, but again, it depends if Apple really wants to license it's tech as a policy of revenue enhancement. For a company like IBM, part of their business strategy is to license the tech to all comers for research borne from their labs...regardless if it is used by competitors or not. Apple already has a ton of money and can't really be bought. The law states that a patent holder doesn't have to license the tech to anyone if they don't want to.
post #5 of 214
Pass the parcel may suit Apple who obviously may have to pay $10 per iDevice too.

$10 ain't a lot compared to the near $600+ they get per iSmart user.
post #6 of 214
Works for Microsoft, why not?
post #7 of 214
Apple is a corporation, and according to US: corporations are people. So would people go to war with each other over dumb things? HEEELLLSSS YEAAAHH!
Apple had me at scrolling
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Apple had me at scrolling
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post #8 of 214
Or ... Apple continues on its present course and wins a few more usability patent infringement cases, where Android has to come up with an alternate method which doesn't work as well, or has to drop the feature entirely, then Apple may win over even more Android users. If they win over just one user then they make an additional $200 versus getting $200 by license fees from 20 Android users. So they stand to make more if they can get 5% or more converts (or newcomers who were about to choose Android) by forcing Android to drop features.

I don't even believe what I'm writing cause I don't think Apple is doing this for the money anyway, as Jobs already stated.
post #9 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by aBeliefSystem View Post

Pass the parcel may suit Apple who obviously may have to pay $10 per iDevice too.

$10 ain't a lot compared to the near $600+ they get per iSmart user.

If we compare profits we're talking about ≈$150 to $10. That's still a huge difference and Android OS is not outselling iOS anywhere close to 15:1. In most markets Android OS still appears to be lower than iOS, only besting it when you compare smartphones OSes.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #10 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hellacool View Post

Works for Microsoft, why not?

Because the day apple follows microsofts business strategy will be a very sad day.
post #11 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

Or Apple sticks to their guns, wins, and collects $10 in damages per device AND keeps the tech only at Apple like Steve wanted

If it was acceptable to have posts containing only "+1", this post would only be "+1".

Seems to me that they're nowhere near losing this battle. With Oracle's help (via completely unrelated lawsuits), Apple can see Android torn apart.
post #12 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

With a reported 700,000 activations per day average that is 63,000,000 per quarter which is $630,000,000 in profit for Apple. If we figure 30M iPhones and 15M iPads with an average sale price of $630 we get $28.350B which means $5.67B in net profits if we consider 20%.

So why is Apple suing over licensing if we're talking about billions per year in profit? Does this legitimize the thievery? Would Samsung have licensed from Apple all the trademarks and patents they stole or would Apple have been laughed at when trying to ink deals from vendors?

It's a complex issue, as are all issues involving IP. Is Apple's reputation hurting because of all the lawsuits? If so, how much is that worth? Does it cause people to buy Android instead? We don't know, but there could be some fallout.

The question that really matters here, and one I would hope Apple is considering, is whether their lawsuits will damage Android enough so that some people will decide that it doesn't work as nicely as they would wish, and therefor switch to iOS. But will this happen? Are the reasons people are buying Android more important than a few UI ease of use questions? After all, it's mostly agreed now that Android is cruder and doesn't work quite as well. That hasn't stopped its march.

With HTC, we see a feature that isn't being "worked around", but removed. Will that removal help Apple, or will people even care? It's a useful feature. It recognizes text such as phone numbers and allows them to be dialed by just tapping on them.

If people would like that, but not enough to stop them from buying a phone without it, then Apple would be better trying to get a license fee than stopping it. After all, Google put it in, and so they do think people would like it.

I don't think anyone can answer these questions. They're too subtle. Microsoft is different, they don't make phones (yet), and so are very happy to get license fees, because that's what they do anyway.
post #13 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

If we compare profits we're talking about ≈$150 to $10. That's still a huge difference and Android OS is not outselling iOS anywhere close to 15:1. In most markets Android OS still appears to be lower than iOS, only besting it when you compare smartphones OSes.

But if these suits aren't slowing Android's growth, it would be better for Apple to take a billion a year in addition to the rest of their profits, as Android is continuing to grow.

Let's not forget that Smartphones are still just a small percentage of the worlds phones. That $600 million now will be $4 billion in a few more years. That ain't chicken feed.
post #14 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wings View Post

Or ... Apple continues on its present course and wins a few more usability patent infringement cases, where Android has to come up with an alternate method which doesn't work as well, or has to drop the feature entirely, then Apple may win over even more Android users...

I don't even believe what I'm writing cause I don't think Apple is doing this for the money anyway, as Jobs already stated.

This exactissimo.

Somebody did an interesting analysis a while ago of just ONE of the parents in question. It has to do with the little "bounce" animation that happens when you're scrolling down (or up) a list or a window and reach the of it. Boing! You know.

The writer's point was -- and Apple's point is -- that they invented this cool thing, and only they should be allowed to use it. I don't know jack about patent law, so I have no opinion about the legal merit of this point of view, but as Wings points out, this isn't about the money. It's about Apple preserving its unique user experience.

[Wow, autocorrect magically understood whether I wanted "it's" or "its" in each case in the previous sentence. Siri must be having a salutary effect on those pesky algorithms.]

What Apple wants, apparently, is to force Android designers to drop the bounce, thus making the user experience one tiny degree less cool. Extrapolate this effect over the whole field of patents involved, and I should think it results in a notable downgrade, or at best a tangible lateral shift, in the overall Android UX. Users may not even consciously register this effect on a feature-by-feature level, but they'll get that Android just doesn't feel as good, or as "alive," or (to use a favorite Jobs term) as delightful as the Apple experience.

It's hard to quantify this. How many billion $USD is "delight" worth? I'd say it's like having slightly better armor on a battlefield. You don't want the opposing generals to pay you for the right to upgrade their tanks. You want your tanks to be better, full stop.
post #15 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

Or Apple sticks to their guns, wins, and collects $10 in damages per device AND keeps the tech only at Apple like Steve wanted

Apple's strategy is 1) a losing one, and 2) doesn't make sense. It is costing Apple millions in attorney fees, years in times, and to date Apple has had little success. Meanwhile, Microsoft is 1) spending little on attorney fees, and 2) is getting a pay day on practically every Android device sold.
post #16 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

It's a complex issue, as are all issues involving IP. Is Apple's reputation hurting because of all the lawsuits? If so, how much is that worth? Does it cause people to buy Android instead? We don't know, but there could be some fallout.

Just today Bloomberg issued the first article I've read on the potential fallout from these patents.
Quote:
With HTC, we see a feature that isn't being "worked around", but removed. Will that removal help Apple, or will people even care? It's a useful feature. It recognizes text such as phone numbers and allows them to be dialed by just tapping on them.

I thought HTC had a work around for this and had already implemented it newer devices.


Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

But if these suits aren't slowing Android's growth, it would be better for Apple to take a billion a year in addition to the rest of their profits, as Android is continuing to grow.

Let's not forget that Smartphones are still just a small percentage of the worlds phones. That $600 million now will be $4 billion in a few more years. That ain't chicken feed.

I don't disagree with the money to be had but I do wonder why this golden egg hasn't been sought after. It makes me think it's too good to be true or not in the best interest of Apple's longevity with iOS-based devices in ways I can't imagine.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #17 of 214
What makes anyone believe that they haven't already tried to negotiate a licensing fee structure with Google? The lawsuits are the last straw. MS has been going directly to the handset makers to get the licensing fees and maybe Apple has tried too but with no luck.
post #18 of 214
and so they say no, we'll pay you $2.00 maybe $4.00 per device, but that's all. Now the numbers chance a lot?

Skip
post #19 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doctor David View Post

Because the day apple follows microsofts business strategy will be a very sad day.

Yeah, making money is such a waste.
post #20 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hellacool View Post

Yeah, making money is such a waste.

You think MS's business strategy is making money? That's their goal, their strategy for achieving their goal differs in nearly every way from Apple's.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #21 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

You think MS's business strategy is making money? That's their goal, their strategy for achieving their goal differs in nearly every way from Apple's.

And they make a crap load of money.
post #22 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Just today Bloomberg issued the first article I've read on the potential fallout from these patents.
I thought HTC had a work around for this and had already implemented it newer devices.



I don't disagree with the money to be had but I do wonder why this golden egg hasn't been sought after. It makes me think it's too good to be true or not in the best interest of Apple's longevity with iOS-based devices in ways I can't imagine.

HTC said they would remove the feature. That's their work around. One can't actually work around everything. That's one of the reasons why patents exist.

The golden egg hasn't been gone after because of Steve's inclinations to not go after it. We have all read what he was thinking. But not everything he thought was great. If Apple sued years ago, it might have been different. But by waiting until Android was so big, these companies are now reluctant to part with their sales the way they might have been the first year when it looked as though Android was going nowhere. That's one problem with not pouncing right away. I was surprised that after Jobs said that they would defend the iPhone (before it was called iOS), that they didn't do so immediately. They could have scared off other manufacturers back then, but not now.
post #23 of 214
Let's make this real simple so these so called analysts can understand it and try to understand Apple.

1) Microsoft is failing and Apple is succeeding

2) Apple is succeeding in a recession and even there home computer mrket is making money when PC sales are rapidly declining.

3) APPLE IS THE MOST VALUABLE COMPANY ON THE PLANET!!! WHOSE STRATEGY DO YOU THINK IS WORKING?!?!?!

See? Very simple
post #24 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hellacool View Post

And they make a crap load of money.

In some areas of business they do which carry their overall load, include the areas in which MS loses money, but I don't see why Apple should forego their more profitable strategies for MS's less profitable strategies. Is MS making more profit in the handset business than Apple? It doesn't even seem close.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #25 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sevenfeet View Post

The law states that a patent holder doesn't have to license the tech to anyone if they don't want to.

If all the other techs took the attitude that it's their IP and they're not licensing it then there would be no iPhone, iPad, iPod, Mac etc., and perhaps no Apple at all.

Withholding basic patents doesn't benefit the consumers or mobile markets, instead throwing rocks in the road for everyone. That's my opinion at least.
melior diabolus quem scies
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post #26 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

In some areas of business they do which carry their overall load, include the areas in which MS loses money, but I don't see why Apple should forego their more profitable strategies for MS's less profitable strategies. Is MS making more profit in the handset business than Apple? It doesn't even seem close.

Forgot, unless you are Apple you are crap. regardless that your company makes billions each year. Brilliant.

Apple's more profitable strategy - Waste millions in lawyers fees, winning and then simply having your win countered by a simple software update (HTC)

Microsofts Strategy - Strike deals with handset makers and rake in the cash for doing nothing but having a patent.

Your right, Apple all the way.
post #27 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hellacool View Post

And they make a crap load of money.

And their growth is stalling. It looks as though Windows growth will end in the low single digits this year. Next year looks as though it could be the same, unless Win 8 turns out to be a big hit, rather than the Vista moment businesses are saying it will be. Of course, the poor consumer never has the choice to buy a new machine either with Windows or OS X that isn't the latest version.

And over some short time, if Windows growth stalls, so will Office sales, and all their other business software. Eventually, this will affect their tools and server divisions. Windows, for Microsoft, is the leading indicator.
post #28 of 214
Phase 1: full on attack on Android manufacturers, with the goal of sales injunctions:

Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Jobs said he believed Android was a "stolen product," and indicated he was "willing to go thermonuclear war" to stop it.

Phase 2: collect royalties from the surviving Android manufacturers:

Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

[Kevin Rivette] ... believes Apple could probably collect up to $10 in royalties for every Android device sold. That would be twice the $5 per unit Microsoft is believed to receive for each HTC Android device sold.

The two-phase approach immediately makes life miserable for Android device manufacturers, while causing a certain amount of doubt among developers, carriers, and consumers. Later, if necessary, Apple could relent and allow the Android manufacturers to license their technology. But only if they really need to, which doesn't appear likely.

Either way, it's going to cost the Android device makers. Possession of stolen property makes you an accessory to the crime.

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post #29 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by chasedcook View Post

Let's make this real simple so these so called analysts can understand it and try to understand Apple.

1) Microsoft is failing and Apple is succeeding

Billions of dollars in revenue = fail?

Quote:
Originally Posted by chasedcook View Post

2) Apple is succeeding in a recession and even there home computer mrket is making money when PC sales are rapidly declining.

Billions in dollars in revenue = fail?

Quote:
Originally Posted by chasedcook View Post

3) APPLE IS THE MOST VALUABLE COMPANY ON THE PLANET!!! WHOSE STRATEGY DO YOU THINK IS WORKING?!?!?!

See? Very simple

Someone has to be first, which does not mean EVERY other company behind Apple is a fail.
post #30 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

And their growth is stalling. It looks as though Windows growth will end in the low single digits this year. Next year looks as though it could be the same, unless Win 8 turns out to be a big hit, rather than the Vista moment businesses are saying it will be. Of course, the poor consumer never has the choice to buy a new machine either with Windows or OS X that isn't the latest version.

And over some short time, if Windows growth stalls, so will Office sales, and all their other business software. Eventually, this will affect their tools and server divisions. Windows, for Microsoft, is the leading indicator.

That is allot of assumptions.
post #31 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

If all the other techs took the attitude that it's their IP and they're not licensing it then there would be no iPhone, iPad, iPod, Mac etc., and perhaps no Apple at all.

Withholding basic patents doesn't benefit the consumers or mobile markets, instead throwing rocks in the road for everyone. That's my opinion at least.

Mostly, you're correct. Even Apple licenses much of their IP to others. This is forgotten in the stories we read about specific cases, because the rest isn't sexy enough to write about. After all, how interesting is it to write that Apple, like most tech companies licenses much of their IP, while keeping IP they think they need for their own use as an advantage, close to their vest?

We can look at Intel to see a company that refuses to license. when Intel looked as though it might go under, in the 80’s, IBM forced them to allow licensing of x86, because they were afraid that if Intel did go under, IBM would have to use another chip family. But over the years, when they became large and profitable, they withdrew licensing from every company except AMD, where they tried to, and a couple of small companies such as VIA, who had no markets left anyway.

Apple is such a well known company, that when they do what all others do, it gets in the news.

When has Microsoft ever licensed other companies to produce Windows, or Office, or the XBox? Never, of course.

Has Cisco licensed their router hardware or software? Nope.

We can look to many major companies who rarely license. Nothing wrong with that. If they develop it, and want to use it themselves, they don't have to license it.
post #32 of 214
There was that early internal Google email where they essentially admitted, yes, they could do things legally and come up with their own non-Java frameworks for Android, but that would take too long and it was easier and quicker to infringe now and work things out later. As I recall, the judge hearing the prelims said that that email and a copy of the Magna Carta (ie basic property law) was all that Oracle was likely to need to prove infringement at trial.

Since then Google has furiously and repeatedly tried to get that email tossed out of evidence to no avail, and the trial date is getting closer. Oracle is hurting and while Steve is gone, Larry Ellison is fine and strikes me as even more inclined to scorched-earth retribution here.

I dunno. HTC has also stumbled financially lately and just gotten it's first swat on the nose legally - how much longer are its stockholders going to want to take on Apple instead of concentrating on Windows Mobile? I think there's still a good possibility that 2012 is the year that things really get sticky for Android OEMs. Ten buck a phone seems awfully lowball to get Apple's attention, even post-Steve.
post #33 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hellacool View Post

Forgot, unless you are Apple you are crap. regardless that your company makes billions each year. Brilliant.

Apple's more profitable strategy - Waste millions in lawyers fees, winning and then simply having your win countered by a simple software update (HTC)

Microsofts Strategy - Strike deals with handset makers and rake in the cash for doing nothing but having a patent.

Your right, Apple all the way.

MS is suing plenty of companies. Android manufacturers. Motorola, for one. Samsung was threatened with a lawsuit. They're suing one other, though I forget which.

Don't forget the companies they put out of business with their tactics, and for which they had the Feds go after them twice. They aren't a paragon of virtue. Neither is Google.

None of these big companies is perfect, including Apple.
post #34 of 214
One way or another, Apple will capitalize on this patent. The most profitable would be to destroy the competition by not licensing IP and going full out for import bans and the like. Make no mistake that such measures are emotional reactions caused by the "theft" of Apple's technology. They are calculated attempts to protect the highest possible profit margins, and have always been.

That failing -- due to legislation on anticompetitive behavior, inconvenient rulings in isolated cases, or simply competitors that couldn't care less about the current Western IP regulations -- Apple could go the Microsoft way and take a slice of Android's growing piece of the pie. It may amount to only 10% of Apple's profits for now, with Apple needing to do nothing but just count the cash, but with time it will continue to grow if current trends continue.

It's all good business for Apple.
post #35 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

And their growth is stalling. It looks as though Windows growth will end in the low single digits this year. Next year looks as though it could be the same, unless Win 8 turns out to be a big hit, rather than the Vista moment businesses are saying it will be. Of course, the poor consumer never has the choice to buy a new machine either with Windows or OS X that isn't the latest version. [...]

But PC makers can force Microsoft to allow them to install older versions of Windows on the PCs that they ship. Dell kept Windows XP alive for at least 2 years after Microsoft attempted to end-of-life it. (Dell plans to continue Windows XP driver support until December 2012, more than 11 years after Windows XP was released.)

And just why would Dell want to ship PCs running XP? Because their corporate customers demanded it. Because XP was "good enough." And Vista wasn't. From the Wikipedia entry on Windows XP: "As of November 2011, Windows XP market share is at 32.8% after having peaked at 76.1% in January 2007."

This is precisely the same problem that Windows 8 will face. Windows 7 will be "good enough" for the next decade, the way XP was "good enough" over the past decade. Windows 7 even has a "Windows XP Mode" so you can run all of your decade-old apps. There won't be any need to upgrade to Windows 8. Only people buying brand new PCs will end up with Windows 8.

Microsoft is stuck between a rock and a hard place. They can't force average consumers to upgrade. And they can't lure average consumers into buying the latest version of Windows simply by sprinkling a little eye candy on top of the same old thing. Over the last two and a half decades, they've trained users to expect a terrible PC experience. Just barely tolerable. Just barely "good enough." There's no "wow" in Windows any more. Was there ever?

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post #36 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I thought HTC had a work around for this and had already implemented it newer devices.

HTC may have a work around BUT it is still a core Android function that in future Google will be WILFULLY infringing on Apple's patent unless it is removed altogether.

All these court cases so far are opening skirmishes, the one's that stick for Apple will give them a much better bargaining position, moving on.

Steve Jobs didn't hate Android, he hated that Google seems to have no regard for other's IP and loaded Android with stolen functionality.

He was quite clear on this, he had no problem with innovation using your own work.
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post #37 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hellacool View Post

That is allot of assumptions.

It's not a lot of assumptions, if you understand what is happening to their sales. I follow it pretty closely, as part of my investment strategy. I have to know what these companies are doing.

MS's Windows sales have been a problem since the middle of last year. This isn't because of the economy either, as Mac sales have risen strongly during the same period.

We can look to the 2011 financial year for both, which is over, but not exactly with the same timing. It will be more interesting to see it in Jan, to see the calendar years compared.

MS

Earnings growth...........28.1%
This year so far..............2.1%
Next 10 years est.........10.00%
Revenue growth last.....11.94%

Apple

Earnings growth............82.7%
This year so far.............25.49%
Next 10 years est..........18.00%
Revenue growth last......66.9%

Ms is still doing pretty well, but there are trends. Look at earnings growth so far this year as a percentages of the total from last year. Small. Now, look at Apple's, more than 25% of the total from last years 4 quarters. One is accelerating, and one is declining.

If you go to MS's financial reports, you will see smaller growth in almost every division. It began with Windows last year, when the others still did well, except for tools, which slowed down. But look at this years, and you will see Windows even slower, with Office and others slower as well. It took a year, but it's happening. I'm not the only one who notices these things, which is why MS's stock hasn't risen for 10 years. Actually, it's lower now than it was 10 years ago, despite the small dividend.

MS is being hurt by several trends. One is the smartphone, which allows business people to do things for which they no longer need a netbook. I know that doesn't seem possible, but many business people, on trips, don't need a laptop. They just used them because there was no good way to get e-mail, and read documents.

The iPad is hurting. SAP which recently bought over 12,500 iPads, and the same number of iPhones, stated that half of iPad sales were to businesses. That's about 20 million this year. And it's just the second year it's out! You can read articles on the business sites, and even PC mag about how people are getting along without their laptops by using iPads.

Businesses are buying more Macs, and there are now articles in the techfinancial sites about how to manage this increasing OS X portion of their business.

These aren't assumptions, guesses, or fanciful wishes. You can go to the many sources and read it yourself.

Smarter heads than mine are advising that MS should drop their consumer initiatives such as the XBox, for which they get little, Bing, from which they are losing several billion a year, with little, if no prospect of ever not losing money, their phone OS, from which, if they ever do get more than a minor number of licenses, will not be able to get much profit, given how little they can charge from it, and other areas. They should then concentrate on their business software, and windows.

Will they do that? Maybe after Ballmer leaves.
post #38 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by pdq2 View Post

There was that early internal Google email where they essentially admitted, yes, they could do things legally and come up with their own non-Java frameworks for Android, but that would take too long and it was easier and quicker to infringe now and work things out later. As I recall, the judge hearing the prelims said that that email and a copy of the Magna Carta (ie basic property law) was all that Oracle was likely to need to prove infringement at trial.

Since then Google has furiously and repeatedly tried to get that email tossed out of evidence to no avail, and the trial date is getting closer. Oracle is hurting and while Steve is gone, Larry Ellison is fine and strikes me as even more inclined to scorched-earth retribution here. [...]

Oracle has all the evidence they need. It's just a matter of whether the judge will grant either 1. an injunction and / or 2. damages in a lump sum and / or 3. licensing fees. The licensing fee could be as high as $15 per device, by the way. Add that to the current $5 per device that HTC pays Microsoft and the potential $10 per device if Apple decides to license their patented technology (instead of forcing a sales ban) and Android is the world's most expensive "free" OS.

And you're right about Larry Ellison. Steve Jobs was prone to fits of temper, but he focused most of his energy on improving Apple products and services. Larry, on the other hand, doesn't just want to win. He wants to crush those who challenge him.

Quote:
"Winning is not enough. All others must lose."
- Larry Ellison

Ellison and Oracle will seek every last penny they can wring out of Android. "The full measure of damages," I believe, is the phrase.

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post #39 of 214
licensing the tech would water down the appeal of Apple products and therefore a bad idea.
post #40 of 214
Quote:
Originally Posted by SockRolid View Post

But PC makers can force Microsoft to allow them to install older versions of Windows on the PCs that they ship. Dell kept Windows XP alive for at least 2 years after Microsoft attempted to end-of-life it. (Dell plans to continue Windows XP driver support until December 2012, more than 11 years after Windows XP was released.)

And just why would Dell want to ship PCs running XP? Because their corporate customers demanded it. Because XP was "good enough." And Vista wasn't. From the Wikipedia entry on Windows XP: "As of November 2011, Windows XP market share is at 32.8% after having peaked at 76.1% in January 2007."

This is precisely the same problem that Windows 8 will face. Windows 7 will be "good enough" for the next decade, the way XP was "good enough" over the past decade. Windows 7 even has a "Windows XP Mode" so you can run all of your decade-old apps. There won't be any need to upgrade to Windows 8. Only people buying brand new PCs will end up with Windows 8.

Microsoft is stuck between a rock and a hard place. They can't force average consumers to upgrade. And they can't lure average consumers into buying the latest version of Windows simply by sprinkling a little eye candy on top of the same old thing. Over the last two and a half decades, they've trained users to expect a terrible PC experience. Just barely tolerable. Just barely "good enough." There's no "wow" in Windows any more. Was there ever?

Only for businesses. Consumer PC purchasers get no such ability. But as Vista was so very unliked, MS did relent in some areas. Businesses have been saying that now that they've upgraded, or are upgrading to 7, they have no interest in 8, though we know that some small number will do it.

They are worried about the extra training needed for Metro. This is something that businesses are skeptical about. They don't see the need for Metro.
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