Apple could collect $10 for every Android device sold, expert says - Page 2

Originally Posted by melgross

It's not a lot of assumptions, if you understand what is happening to their sales. I follow it pretty closely, as part of my investment strategy. I have to know what these companies are doing.

MS's Windows sales have been a problem since the middle of last year. This isn't because of the economy either, as Mac sales have risen strongly during the same period.

We can look to the 2011 financial year for both, which is over, but not exactly with the same timing. It will be more interesting to see it in Jan, to see the calendar years compared.

MS

Earnings growth...........28.1%
This year so far..............2.1%
Next 10 years est.........10.00%
Revenue growth last.....11.94%

Apple

Earnings growth............82.7%
This year so far.............25.49%
Next 10 years est..........18.00%
Revenue growth last......66.9%

Ms is still doing pretty well, but there are trends. Look at earnings growth so far this year as a percentages of the total from last year. Small. Now, look at Apple's, more than 25% of the total from last years 4 quarters. One is accelerating, and one is declining.

If you go to MS's financial reports, you will see smaller growth in almost every division. It began with Windows last year, when the others still did well, except for tools, which slowed down. But look at this years, and you will see Windows even slower, with Office and others slower as well. It took a year, but it's happening. I'm not the only one who notices these things, which is why MS's stock hasn't risen for 10 years. Actually, it's lower now than it was 10 years ago, despite the small dividend.

MS is being hurt by several trends. One is the smartphone, which allows business people to do things for which they no longer need a netbook. I know that doesn't seem possible, but many business people, on trips, don't need a laptop. They just used them because there was no good way to get e-mail, and read documents.

The iPad is hurting. SAP which recently bought over 12,500 iPads, and the same number of iPhones, stated that half of iPad sales were to businesses. That's about 20 million this year. And it's just the second year it's out! You can read articles on the business sites, and even PC mag about how people are getting along without their laptops by using iPads.

Businesses are buying more Macs, and there are now articles in the techfinancial sites about how to manage this increasing OS X portion of their business.

These aren't assumptions, guesses, or fanciful wishes. You can go to the many sources and read it yourself.

Smarter heads than mine are advising that MS should drop their consumer initiatives such as the XBox, for which they get little, Bing, from which they are losing several billion a year, with little, if no prospect of ever not losing money, their phone OS, from which, if they ever do get more than a minor number of licenses, will not be able to get much profit, given how little they can charge from it, and other areas. They should then concentrate on their business software, and windows.

Will they do that? Maybe after Ballmer leaves.

Originally Posted by melgross

is whether their lawsuits will damage Android enough so that some people will decide that it doesn't work as nicely as they would wish, and therefor switch to iOS..

Originally Posted by Hellacool

I am in no way trying to claim MS is doing better than Apple. I am simply saying MS is not a fail company by any means. There is a misconception that is you are not number 1 you are fail. That just is not true.

Originally Posted by stelligent

How much will Apple pay others for each iPhone sold? To an extent, that's already happening, even if indirectly.

This is simply not that big a deal. But if Apple insists on the "thermonuclear" strategy and refuses to license any key technology, then the current fiasco will continue.

Originally Posted by Dickprinter

Isn't the more important question....will the smartphone manufacturers dish out $15-20 per handset to license Apple's and MS technology just to be able to use the Android OS in their devices?

Originally Posted by melgross

I keep thinking about these things. I've got to admit that I have no idea what these companies think. As Apple is making such a large part of the cell manufacturing industry's profits, I wonder just how much is made on each phone from other companies, on average. It can't be much.

How much would tip them over into a loss? If it took $10 that would be a disaster. But at least a couple of those companies are losing money, so perhaps the rest are doing somewhat better.

There's got to be some point at which they would find the business to be a loss. I would think that if Apple did recover and get to 30% worldwide, that could trigger it. But will that happen, or will they remain at 22-25%?

So going by that, how much more could companies pay in royalties? I read that the average smartphone already has $50 of royalties attached.

Originally Posted by Hellacool

Yeah, making money is such a waste.

Originally Posted by stelligent

How much will Apple pay others for each iPhone sold? To an extent, that's already happening, even if indirectly.

This is simply not that big a deal. But if Apple insists on the "thermonuclear" strategy and refuses to license any key technology, then the current fiasco will continue.

Originally Posted by Wovel

Apple actually is making money...

Originally Posted by Hellacool

I wonder whathappens when all these Chinese and Korean companies get tired of Apple's antics and decide not to renew contracts? Who then builds Apple LCDs and memory, cases ect..... Apple manufactures nothing. I understand that Apple is a payday for many but all these lawsuits will play a toll, plus some of these companies will do as they are told by their countries (China). It is a dangerous game. If Samsung pulled the plug right now on all Apple LCDs, Apple would be screwed. So would Samsung with lawsuits but Apple would be hurting while Samsung went on producing Samsung products and battle the courts for years and during those years Apple would lose billions.

Originally Posted by Hellacool

Understand a profit is a profit. If a company is making money, after everything is paid why would they stop? Sure it sucks when someone is dipping into your profit margins but you are still making money. If they are now making $100 per phone after everything, then Apple takes $20, they are still making $80, of course they will pass that $20 on too the consumer some how but still.

Originally Posted by Hellacool

If Samsung pulled the plug right now on all Apple LCDs, Apple would be screwed.

Originally Posted by melgross

These days, few large "manufacturers" manufacturer anything. apple can afford to do what they do because of vastly higher purchasing. In addition, no other company gives billions every years to suppliers in plant expansion, new equipment, and help in paying new workers so these companies can meet Apple's needs. These are the equivelant to business loans. And it's difficult to get those these days.

If Samsung did as you suggest, they would be in court in one minute flat, and would be in serious trouble. In addition, no other customer would ever trust them again. You just don't go behind a customers' back and copy the products you are involved in supplying parts for. You just don't.

Then Apple would switch suppliers, as everyone else would. Sansung would lose 40% of its business, and its entire board would get fired.

Originally Posted by pdq2

You seriously believe there aren't other sources for LCD panels out there?

"With slower than expected demand and excess production capacity, a persistent oversupply of inventory during 1H'11 led to a dramatic reduction in key component costs..."

Six panel makers just settled a price-fixing suit the other day - panel prices have nowehere to go but down now in a scrap for market share. Maybe you missed that Sony just dumped Samsung in a combined LCD joint venture, originally formed to ensure Sony a steady supply of panels - apparently they figure they can do fine on the open market.

If Samsung dumped Apple, the only thing cut off would be Samsung's nose.

Originally Posted by rkevwill

One thing people tend to forget (perhaps they weren't born yet), was Apple sued Microsoft for Windows, and lost. Of course, some state that apple stole the gui from Parc, when actually they licensed it, for a ton of Apple stock. (look it up) Thing is, they probably should have won that suit, and didn't. I hope they win all their Android suits, but $10 per Android phone would be a nice dividend for Apple stockholders. Time will tell. I doubt if they will settle.

Originally Posted by AppleInsider



"It's like a dam. Using their patents to keep rivals out is like putting rocks in a stream. The stream is going to find a way around. Wouldn't it be better to direct where the water goes?"

Originally Posted by Hellacool

Start backing foreign companies into a corner and see what happens.

Originally Posted by melgross

These days, few large "manufacturers" manufacturer anything. apple can afford to do what they do because of vastly higher purchasing. In addition, no other company gives billions every years to suppliers in plant expansion, new equipment, and help in paying new workers so these companies can meet Apple's needs. These are the equivelant to business loans. And it's difficult to get those these days.

If Samsung did as you suggest, they would be in court in one minute flat, and would be in serious trouble. In addition, no other customer would ever trust them again. You just don't go behind a customers' back and copy the products you are involved in supplying parts for. You just don't.

Then Apple would switch suppliers, as everyone else would. Sansung would lose 40% of its business, and its entire board would get fired.

Originally Posted by pdq2

Who's backing who? You're positing that _Samsung_ would cut _Apple_ off cold. Sharp or any of a dozen other companies - yes, foreign companies - would kill to get the business in this environment, and the panache of being supplier to Apple.

Originally Posted by TBell

Apple's strategy is 1) a losing one, and 2) doesn't make sense. It is costing Apple millions in attorney fees, years in times, and to date Apple has had little success. Meanwhile, Microsoft is 1) spending little on attorney fees, and 2) is getting a pay day on practically every Android device sold.

Originally Posted by tooltalk

Well, it would be more like less than 5% of Samsung's business. You know there are other customers Sony (#1), HP (#3), Dell (#4), Verizon (#5) still in good relation with Samsung.

Originally Posted by Hellacool

I agree, right now the companies are doing what companies do but if say Samsung gets backed into a wall by Apple it would not suprise me if they pulled the plug. Sure many companies may never trust them again but since Samsung is one of very few manufactures producing LCD display's their business would be ok. Plus, Apple is suing EVERYONE and making many enemies, I do not think MS, Motorola, HTC ect.... would care if Samsung hung them out to dry. And as I stated before, many of these companies have strong "national" roots, China especially, what happens if Chinese companies pull the plug, Apple sues and China tells them to pound sand, not much. Apple is a US company and as we all know, the US has very few friends and may not find much help. This is a risky game being played and I can only see it getting ugly and ending badly. Corner a dog and it will bite.

Originally Posted by Hellacool

And none of them are in the US. Start backing foreign companies into a corner and see what happens. It is already well known that China will quickly put money into one of its "private" companies if they need too. US companies have already filed suit against China for dumping, selling products at a massive loss inorder to gain market (solar panels). The companies taking these losses are compensated by China. The lawsuit goes nowhere because China is backing the companies. If the US doesnt want Chinese stuff, India, Pakistan and other up and coming economies do. The US used to be the major market but that is quickly going away. Apple is playing a very dangerous game.

Also, Apple is buying up tons of plants and manufactures, again on Chinese soil. Look at venezuela a few years back. Kicked out all the foreign oil companies, took all their stuff and started a state run oil company. Nothing anyone could do about it, nothing.

Originally Posted by chasedcook

Let's make this real simple so these so called analysts can understand it and try to understand Apple.

1) Microsoft is failing and Apple is succeeding

2) Apple is succeeding in a recession and even there home computer mrket is making money when PC sales are rapidly declining.

3) APPLE IS THE MOST VALUABLE COMPANY ON THE PLANET!!! WHOSE STRATEGY DO YOU THINK IS WORKING?!?!?!

See? Very simple

Originally Posted by tooltalk

Well, it would be more like less than 5% of Samsung's business. You know there are other customers Sony (#1), HP (#3), Dell (#4), Verizon (#5) still in good relation with Samsung.

Originally Posted by melgross

Exactly which companies and plants has Apple bought that are Chinese companies. And what companies and plants on Chinese soil has Apple bought? We would really like to know!

Don't go from reasonable to unreasonable. Up to now, your arguments have been reasonable. This one is not

Originally Posted by melgross

Well, LG is a very large panel provider for Apple, and Sharp appears to be supplying panels for the iPad3, using a new, and better version of the LCD. It wouldn't surprise me if Apple moved to someone else for phones as well.

Samsung, of course, is a S. Korean company, as is Hon Hai, their main manufacturer. Apple indirectly employs hundreds of thousands of Chinese workers. The Chinese government isn't about to allow any of their companies to do anything stupid. The Chinese love Apple products, and the government even had a ceremony on Jobs' passing. Ours didn't. Perhaps they value Apple more there than we do here.

Apple isn't suing everyone, just a few companies. MS has threatened more companies than Apple has, and over 55% of Android makers are paying them royalties as a result, from their numbers. now, they're going after the rest.

Originally Posted by Hellacool

And not one of them are friends with Apple and would not shed a tear if Apple dissappeared.

Originally Posted by melgross

Well, Sony, for one, is now making most of the cameras for the 4S. At an estimate of almost $20 a pop, that will be at least 100,000,000 modules Sony will be selling to Apple this year. Considering Sony's business problems, this will add significantly to their profits. Since this module is more expensive than others, Sony might not have customers for it if Apple left, as it is a custom model, using Apple's own lens design. Somehow, losing $2 billion in business would not be happy for Sony. Others have business with Apple on that list as well.

Originally Posted by lostkiwi

I think a lot of the people here suggesting Apple should take a cut of each Android sale in exchange for dropping the lawyering haven't read Walt's book. If they had they would know that Steve was a very binary guy - something either was a piece of crap or it was friking amazing. There is no middle ground.

When Steve said he was willing to go thermonuclear he meant it. Thermonuclear war is, as we all know Mutually Assureed Distruction. Steve was willing to burn everything to the ground if it meant killing Android/Google as well, because they betrayed him, and they stole great ideas instead of producing them like an artist. I hope the Board will feel the same - as I agree with Steve.

For the Fandroids, please don't go talking about PARC and Xerox etc and say that Apple stole as well. If you read your history you would know that Xerox were well aware of what was going on and they were paid for it. Everything was legal and above board. Stupidity is not illegal. If it was, we wouldn't have a Congress. Or a Senate.

Originally Posted by Hellacool

You are right, I thought the last company was but it was Isreali. So Apple does not own any Chinese property but they realy heavily on Chinese manufactures.

Originally Posted by lostkiwi

I think a lot of the people here suggesting Apple should take a cut of each Android sale in exchange for dropping the lawyering haven't read Walt's book. If they had they would know that Steve was a very binary guy - something either was a piece of crap or it was friking amazing. There is no middle ground.

When Steve said he was willing to go thermonuclear he meant it. Thermonuclear war is, as we all know Mutually Assureed Distruction. Steve was willing to burn everything to the ground if it meant killing Android/Google as well, because they betrayed him, and they stole great ideas instead of producing them like an artist. I hope the Board will feel the same - as I agree with Steve.

For the Fandroids, please don't go talking about PARC and Xerox etc and say that Apple stole as well. If you read your history you would know that Xerox were well aware of what was going on and they were paid for it. Everything was legal and above board. Stupidity is not illegal. If it was, we wouldn't have a Congress. Or a Senate.

Originally Posted by Hellacool

LCDs are just one part of Apple products, Chinese companies pretty much produce and assemble everything else. My point, which is getting overlooked, is that Apple is starting to play hardball with companies that belong to the Chinese government. Sure they are "public" but they will do as they are told and be compensated for it. And if China ever decides to punch Apple in the face they will and it will hurt. Sure China loves Apple, it is pouring money into its economy but do not let that fool you, they are not democratic and will do what ever they deem neccesary to defend their country. If China feels Apple is getting to big for its britches they could easily stop it. Again this is worse case scenerio stuff but not impossible and as Apple makes enemies, the likely hood grows. Even if countries get tired of their companies getting sued, they could easily stop the sale of Apple products and no one could do anything about it.

Originally Posted by Hellacool

But if Apple shut its doors today, Several other areas of Sony would gain life again. PSP, Phones, Computers ect...... With the big dog out of the picture, many would smile.

Originally Posted by AbsoluteDesignz

Everyone says Android is stolen from iOS...yet no one can actually point to how it is stolen from iOS...and I'm not talking some vague patent on a "method" I'm talking actual point by point "iOS had this then Android TOOK IT" because such a thing does not exist. (with the exception of folder creation in Android 4.0 but that is a good trade off for Apple's new innovative notification center)

iOS is a lot more polished and the software is designed for the hardware...evidenced by reality. But Android does do things better than iOS in some regards...sharing for one.

Also if you feel the board should agree with Steve's notion of mutually assured destruction then thank God you're not on any board.


Also Apple came into PARC labs as potential investors...(a lie) and took the idea (not illegal IMO and not immoral as I feel good ideas should be shared and adapted or licensed so the originator gets paid for his advancement of things - something Apple seems to be against) of the GUI and made it their own. Taking an idea and adapting it into your own is how advancement works...at least that's how it use to work before software patents.

Originally Posted by melgross

It's said because Eric Schmitt, you know, the CEO, and now Chairman of Google said that at first, they were going to copy the Blackberry, but changed to copying iOS as it looked as though it would be more successful. he said that publicly, and it's a well known statement.