The next ten years of Mac OS X - Page 2

Well... yeah. That was what I was saying!

Sorry, I wasn't addressing a pissing match between AAPL and MSFT. I was pointing out the difference between your comparison of Apple's Mac minority share among PCs and Microsoft's failure to launch WP7 after letting WM6 fall off a cliff.

Microsoft's revenues come from Windows, Server and Office. WP7 is thrown in with Xbox, Zune and other efforts that are basically experiments to find new ways to make money outside of the PC monopoly. They have all been rather tremendous failures if you look at how much money was put in to get the results obtained. WP7 has been an extreme failure.


WP7 is a "new platform" in a BS marketing sense because MS wants you to forget about WM6. But there's nothing new about MS' business in mobile phones. Unlike Apple, it didn't have to develop a channel or muscle its way into the market. Despite many years of head start and all of its partners (including Samsung, LG, Sony, and now NOKIA!!) WP7 has been an absolute failure.

You don't have to take my figures as gospel, but don't doubt them based on what you'd like to believe and suggest there must be a better number without actually pointing out a source to disprove it. WP7 hasn't sold worth a damn.


You could have observed the same thing over the last couple years about the Zune. There is no momentum for WP7. It is dead in the water, and vaporware PR about "exciting" phones that won't be sold for another year was part of the failed strategy MS used last year. It didn't work out well.


Hilarious! The Zune was a response to the iPod after the "open" WM PlaysForSure failed, just like WP7 failed over the past year and is showing no signs of life apart from cheerleading by some fans. That didn't help PFS or the Zune, did it? It also won't turn around WP7.

You can' t drop a product into the market and let it fail for a year and then expect it to turn around. Ask Google about Google TV or Buzz or Honeycomb. They're not taking off again.


What you believe isn't as important as what the reality is. Apple owns the vast majority of PC sales above $900. Google for facts, don't just tell me what you believe must be the case. Here's some help:

http://www.google.com/search?q=Apple+market+share+PC+$1000

The answer was +90% a couple years ago. PC prices haven't gone up since.

Linux as a desktop OS is fading into history. the "consumerization" of computing is morphing OS's into hybrid cloud/portable device ecosystems, and no one is bothering to work on this huge task for Linux.

of course open source fans delude themselves that the continuing Linux kernel adaptations - most of all Android of course - is somehow carrying the Linux OS thread forward. well, as an industrial core component that powers a lot of devices, yes there is still a life for Linux. but not as a top level UI.

I fully admit that my argument is thin, but if you were to ask someone what big cat Apple would have saved for OSX10.9, I think most would agree it would be Lion.

I don't doubt that we could see iterative improvements for several years, and that this particular desktop paradigm can and likely will continue to evolve and mature. That said, if Apple did have a sea change in the works (and who knows what that means), they're not going to release a 10.8 and 10.9 and just tread water if they're ready to make a bigger shift.

BTW try not to get trolled. The idea that any product that earns less profit than Apple does must be a complete failure identifies a Dilger-esk level of stupidity.

You can talk about great products, or you can talk about profits. Start mixing them too much and you end up at a straw man party.

hate to quibble, but no one on earth has a clue where computing will be in 10 years. the pace of evolution and disruption has picked up dramatically in the last few years, starting with the iPhone. everything mentioned in this article is within a 5 year horizon at most. which makes sense, since that is about as far ahead as current trends can be envisioned.

all we can really say is all consumer products will get "smarter," simpler, and usually cheaper. how much of our daily activities will be almost invisibly managed and delivered by digital assistants of all kinds in 2022 is anyone's guess.

near term, no doubt Jobs left Apple with a 5 year roadmap of some kind, and some product plans that will take two or three more years of R&D before they are ready for sale. and it's a totally safe bet that iOS and OS X will continue to grow closer if not almost merge.

Your relationship to a company is yours alone and is not relevant to a discussion of the industry and corporate performance. My product choices are not based on company dynamics but my appreciation for them as a corporate entity does.

MS does of course contribute to the low margins on PCs since the $50-80 slice they take off the top kills the OEMs margins especially on cheap machines.

The low share of high-value machines is clear in the low ASPs of the mainstream PC vendors. HPs's is less than half of Apple's (~$650) meaning that it has a lot of cheap machines in the mix. Nothing inherently wrong with that, it is just where the market is. Custom PCs are a market irrelevance so would hardly upset a true accounting of the market value.

The PC market is not going anywhere but inexorably down - unit growth is negligible, margins are... marginal. Nibbled away by tablets, smartphones and the general webification of things. Expensive, high-powered terminals will not be required to get most "jobs" done over the next few years. Devices aren't going away, but they are changing. This will also impact Macs but Apple has carved out a much more defensible spot in the market than the other traditional manufacturers and it is ready for the cannibalization. You say there a winners, losers and complainers... the only real winners in PCs these days are MS, Intel and Apple - all the other major players are struggling (even HP).

Maybe I'm just cynical, but I think Dillger plans to plant some "revisionist history" seeds... so he has started to till the soil a bit.

My guess is that in part two of "the next ten years of Mac OS X" Dillger will have Apple bringing OSX and iOS together.

So that he can paint Apple as the trail blazer and everyone else as hopeless copycats he needs to pretend that OSX and iOS are similar versions of the same OS, and that Apple had this planned all along.

Then again I could be completely and utterly wrong (it wouldn't be the first time! ). We'll have to wait for part two of the series to see!

http://betanews.com/2009/07/22/apple...-pcs-says-npd/
To bad the statistics you refer to are from NPD, a North American market research company, That wouldn't apply here in NZ, or many other countries. Also the staticstic is outdated, Windows 7 would have has some effect on this.
Also plenty of people still get custom PC's, this doesn't necessarily mean home built, but you choose the parts and another company puts it together, there are some great companies in New Zealand and Austrailia, and if maket segements lke this are ignored, it's not a fair comparison. For instance I have have help customize two PC's for my workplace, and another worker also customized other machines, which the company has bought. I also have suggested computers to other people, who have gone on to buy them.

Apple earned its money by creating products people chose to buy on the open market next to a wide range of competitors.

Microsoft collected its revenues by taxing PC sales as it illegally forced competitors out of business, preventing Windows from ever being challenged by alternative PC platforms, the web, Java, NCs, and so on until Steve Jobs kicked its ass and broke through the monopoly in a way nobody else managed to do.

That's a pretty significant distinction. I wonder why you are so impressed with Windows 8. It is Windows 7 with a layer of Zune interface on it and a copycat App Store. What's so impressive about that? The only impressive thing is that Microsoft managed to lose its control of the PC market, which was as much Microsoft's fault as Apple's success. Windows 7 sales still haven't rebounded to pre-Vista sales. That's not a good sign, is it?

If you think OS X and iOS need to be "brought together," it's only because you lack an understanding that they are the same thing with iOS having an optimized user interface environment. Do some research, it's not a secret.

Jobs said iPhone was running "OS X" at its launch, and Apple originally referred to iOS as iPhone OS X. Same kernel, same Cocoa API, same development tools.

In contrast, there's extensive differences between the same elements of Win95/98 and WinNT/XP/Vista/7 and WinCE WinMob, WP7 and Zune, even if dummies call them all "Windows."

What planet are you living on? There was plenty to learn and grasp from this article on the direction Apple has taken and its future. If it's too hard for you to understand perhaps spending more time getting an education and less time commenting would help.

It never ends, you can't say anything here, without the fans able to stay objective, it's a never ending loop. Yes Apple is super cool...and make lots of money, and will never do anything monoplostic, even by accident, or later decreed by a court. Apple make everything innovative, have never made one mistake, every other company is braindead, and has copied every feature Apple has made. Any area a competitor is doing well in, is because they are evil, stole ideas, or making tiny profit. Apple are perfect and have never stole any idea, despite their founders fond use of the quote "Good artists copy, great artists steal. And we have always been shameless about stealing great ideas". AppStore was a completley new thing, it had never been done before...
Oh Yeah I think Windows 8 is super-bad because Microsoft makes it, in answer to Corrections.
Also I believe Apple did a better job with the iconography of their religion...A biten Apple...perfect!
Furthermore Steve Jobs came up with every idea personally himself, he should have fired all his staff, as they came up with no ideas and didn't actually build them - They deserve no credit for specific features.... He was like Tony Stark.....but better and a nicer personality....He was a magician...and Apple is perfect

I agree. They may have one more Lion version (e.g. Red Lion or something) but it is clear iOS is the new kid on the block with Apple's direction being iDevices.

With the war winding down Apple might consider its next move - robotics. Microsoft has a platform for that and Apple might want to start paying attention. Consumer robotics will start to take off beyond vacuums and lawn mowers. Surveillance/security, assisted living, and additional cleaning bots (hate cleaning windows and the bathrooms) will come to the forefront. They need programmable OSes.

Calm down. Everybody is entitled to their own opinions, but no one is entitled to their own facts. There are objective facts and there are people here who are intimately familiar with them. If you say things that contradict the objective facts, then you will be called on them.

State your opinion and move on. If someone says something that you know to be incorrect, then all you have to do is to post a link to the correct information. There is no need to pout.

If OSX has another 10 years of life, then how many big cats can Apple use for future major releases before resorting to smaller pussies...?

Very few facts on this page, other than Apple fans quick to disprove any competitor (without facts as well). My opinion stated in calm manner...depending on your opinion. Would it be okay if I loved Apple that much for real, not sarcasm? Or would that be a little over the top towards a company?

My initial statement, before many Apple fans were quick to stampede over was:
Mac OSX and Windows Phone 7.5 deserve more success, because they are competitive products in their respective areas.

Bye. (I know my opinon will be subsquently challenged and disproved in context of the users here, which is okay)

I LOL'd

My prediction still stands... although you do have a point! Dillger won't say that Apple should "bring them together" because that would highlight the fact that it was split in the first place.

He'll make out OSX and iOS have always been the same thing and that from the start Apple have had a grand plan of a "unified OS".

He can't write a paragraph without having a stab at Microsoft or Google though... so he'll probably also write about how both companies have been floundering with multiple OS's and are now trying to emulate Apple's grand plan of a unified OS.

That sounds just about ridiculous enough for a Dillger article!!!!



I completely agree! Only some kind of "dummy" would think Microsoft OS's are the same thing.

This is especially true if it's actually your job to write about this stuff. Could you imagine what kind of idiot a tech writer would be to confuse Windows CE and Windows XP Embedded? They would have to be a moron, completely incapable of performing their job right?

I mean... who would say something like Microsoft's mobile Windows CE (since re-branded as "Windows XP Embedded" to escape the stigma of Windows CE's past failures.)

OK... so yeah, I'm being facetious. We all know it had to be Dillger!

Are you joking? You think Microsoft is proud to have a fractionalized, non-cohesive OS platform across its product line? You think Google is impressed that it has Android and Chrome OS at odds with each other? Are you really that much of dipshit that you vilify competence to make competitors seem less than moronic by comparison? Or are you simply incapable of seeing reality? Is your vision really that skewed by your hatred of Apple?


You're right, the linked article should actually say "Microsoft's mobile Windows CE (since re-branded as "Windows Embedded Compact" to escape the stigma of Windows CE's past failures...."

It's interesting that you can slog though so much content to look for typos that you embrace and celebrate for over a year without ever learning anything from the accurate content in the thousands of articles AI posts. Like say, the one you linked to, which was full of original observations that were all correct a year later, apart from a product name typo that has no affect on the message of the article. But I guess the point of a troll isn't to be right, but to be listened to.

"Hatred" of Apple?!?! It's just a company mate, you need to get some perspective!!!

I couldn't really care less about "the company" Apple. When they make cool stuff I buy it. That's about the extent of our relationship!

That said, I couldn't care less about how Microsoft and Google feel about their OS's either! Could you?


The only point I'm making here is in response to Bloodshotrollin'red noticing that Dillger now refers to iOS as the "mobile edition" of OSX.

My guess is that in part two of this series Dillger will have Apple focusing on a unified OS... but since Dillger can't write anything without making Apple the trailblazing hero and everyone else useless copy cats he needs to revise history a bit and pretend that iOS and OSX were always the same thing and this was always a part of Apple's grand plan.

Of course I could be wrong and he may write nothing of the sort... I'm basing my prediction off nothing more than my own observation of Dillger's inane predictability.

Oh, c'mon man... stick around and laugh it off. There's a certain amount of entertainment value in having your every word dissected and then mistranslated in the most bizarre ways.

Occasionally you actually learn something new, which is an added benefit.

That's what forums are all about. Right...

Admit it Firefly... you take a photo of a Mac IIFX to bed with you every night...

I don't take it personally, and it is worth hearing different opinions and ideas, especially since i'm mostly a Microsoft user, but I try to be open and objective to Apple. That said most people don't learn much in these forums, but arguments are always more intersting when people are passionate about their beliefs, even if their can't be a logical conclusion

I do wish for less severe platform advocates, I know their is a lot of people who use multiple platforms, and can see pros and cons either side, but in some places on the internet sometimes a reader can get the sense their is a bias...Given this is an Apple fan (or stock owner reassurance) site, this is especially expected. I have a sense from reading some Windows/Microsoft blogs, that their is a propensity for Apple users to have stronger opinions, and deride the competition more, while also wanting to know what the competition is up to more (well at least on AppleInsider, which seems to cover everything related to Windows) - but this is only my opinion.

My main reason for reading this site, is to get a sense what the Apple community is thinking about the industry and tech news, occasionly I feel inclined to read some comments, and very rarely do I actually comment. I do so knowing I will be drawn into a spiral, and at some point you have to stop....which is now...until I read some other post in the future that interests me enough...

is pretty short:

1) iOS notifications in OSX. Growl is fine, but we need the *same* system in both OSes and all apps.

2) FaceTime and iMessages integrated into iChat. FT should already be there, why they made a separate app is a mystery to me. (do I want SMS in iChat? I can't decide)

3) a voice-over-ip system in both OSes. Basically just FaceTime with the camera turned off. Combine this with the optional ability to call non-VOIP lines through a 3rd party VOIP provider of your choosing (i.e., gateway the calls from the FT central server to whatever VOIP protocol the provider uses). Apple could be that provider, but I suspect their carrier partners would be mucho-pissed.

4) A "presence" system that works. I'm using my Mac right now with the iPhone on the table. I want it so when I'm using the Mac the notifications/chat requests/etc go there, and when I put my mac to sleep it goes to the phone.

By far the slowest version of OS X was code named after the fastest cat, the Cheetah, and a tiger is far larger and more powerful than a leopard so I'd argue that the code names are essentially meaningless. Apple will probably just switch to using reptiles or raptors and keep the OS X brand.

There's one big error in the article that's often repeated elsewhere: the idea that iCloud reduces the need for local storage.

While that may be true for media purchased from iTunes, it's completely wrong for user generated data. Unlike Google Docs where the one and only copy of your work lives on the internet, iCloud functions like a sync system, automagically copying your work to all your chosen devices. That increases the need for local storage because documents that would otherwise exist on a single device now exist on all synced devices.

iCloud doesn't eliminate the need to backup your data either. Any intended change to a document is automatically pushed to all your synced devices meaning that instead of 1 bad file and 3 older backups you wind up with 4 copies of the bad file. Some applications support the Versions feature in Lion making rolling back relatively pain free, but such documents are larger than those created by applications that don't support versioning. In the case of file corruption your only recourse is to restore from backup.

"Chessie Cat" seems more appropriate... It, just mostly disappears...

.

AppleInsider and Daniel Eran Dilger

Very impressive Series you're doing

Re-cap, overview, summation, etc

And predictions

Of Apple, OSX, iThingys, etc etc

Thank You for your work, for these offerings

Will look forward to reading and studying them

Give them the proper 'digestion' they deserve

And then will leave some comments, thoughts

.

Yes Folks, like a Fine Dinner - do not rush

These Articles are comprehensive and detailed

Not some McDonalds Happy Meal

Later, BC

.



.

What do they focus on now? Did Apple go into the diary products market while I was asleep?