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Apple set to announce likely its best quarter ever on January 24

post #1 of 65
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Apple on Wednesday confirmed that it will report its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Tuesday, Jan. 24, when it will reveal the results of the iPhone 4S launch and holiday shopping season.

Officials at Apple already projected during their last quarterly earnings conference call in October that they were "confident" they would set new company records for both the iPhone and iPad in the just-concluded September quarter. The existing records are 20.3 million iPhones and 11.2 million iPads.

The December quarter represents not only the holiday buying season, but also the launch quarter for the iPhone 4S. During the quarter, Apple initiated its fastest iPhone roll-out yet, debuting the handset in the U.S., U.K., Japan, Hong Kong, India, and even Russia, Brazil and Taiwan late in the quarter.

Current expectations on Wall Street call for Apple to report profits of $9.83 billion on revenue of $38.16 billion. A total of 46 analysts polled skew as high as $10.74 billion and as low as $8.88 billion in their predicted revenue.

Recent rumors have suggested Apple's earnings report won't be the company's only public newsworthy event later this month. Apple is also said to be gearing up for a press conference in New York City where a publishing-related announcement pertaining to education is expected to occur.

As usual, AppleInsider will have live, extensive coverage of Apple's earnings report and conference call when they occur on Jan. 24.
post #2 of 65
And the stock market will do what regarding AAPL I wonder ...?
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
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Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
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post #3 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

And the stock market will do what regarding AAPL I wonder ...?

Apple could sell 40 million iPhones, 6 million Macs but announce that they sold only 12 million iPads and it would tank the stock.
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post #4 of 65
Yea it's pretty disgusting how undervalued APPL is. I hate fraud.
post #5 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

And the stock market will do what regarding AAPL I wonder ...?

Well usually the stock takes a dive, the better the news the worse the dive.

I'm not sure how good news makes the stock holders sell, I guess many are simply retarded.
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post #6 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

Well usually the stock takes a dive, the better the news the worse the dive.

I'm not sure how good news makes the stock holders sell, I guess many are simply retarded.

Come on people, cheer me up don't agree with me!
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
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Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
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post #7 of 65
Apple is DOOMED!!!!

</s>
post #8 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

Yea it's pretty disgusting how undervalued APPL is. I hate fraud.

It isn't fraud, just people taking a wait-and-see attitude after last quarter's earnings "miss," and Steve's death. The former should be resolved in three weeks, but the latter is going to take a year or two to fully flush out.

So, if you have faith in the company, part shoUld be paid off at the announcement, and part longer term.

...or, apple will stumble, justifying the current valuation.

(My bet is that they will guide to $10EPS for Q2! Which in a rational world Would pop them right close to $480.)
post #9 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

Well usually the stock takes a dive, the better the news the worse the dive.

History does not support that observation, although I understand it's gratifying to be cynical.

[QUOTE=saarek;2019178
I guess many are simply retarded.
[/QUOTE]

How does that make you look intelligent or enlightened?
post #10 of 65
It's a shame that record earnings doesn't help boost Apple share price to any degree. The bulls will again be disappointed when hardly any investors purchase Apple stock around earnings. Analysts continue to boost target prices but the share price barely moves. At least Apple shares today aren't down as much as most tech stocks, so I guess I should consider myself lucky that Apple shares have stayed over $400 for a week or so which is somewhat satisfactory. The last few times Apple hit over $400, it dropped like a stone after a couple of days. $450 a share seems very far off and $500 is nearly impossible. Despite what the Apple bulls say, I'll take my $450 and be grateful for that much.
post #11 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

It isn't fraud, just people taking a wait-and-see attitude after last quarter's earnings "miss," and Steve's death. The former should be resolved in three weeks, but the latter is going to take a year or two to fully flush out.

So, if you have faith in the company, part shoUld be paid off at the announcement, and part longer term.

...or, apple will stumble, justifying the current valuation.

(My bet is that they will guide to $10EPS for Q2! Which in a rational world Would pop them right close to $480.)

I disagree with the bolded. Apple's P/E multiple has been far lower than peer companies for years.
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post #12 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

The existing records are 20.3 million iPhones...

Interesting to see how they go against Samsung.

Just in! Samsung Galaxy S II is top selling phone in the UK this year. A single phone released in May outsold any single iPhone for the year - even the iPhone 4 which was available all year. This single phone also outsold the iPhone 4S in December in the UK.

The top selling devices in the UK in December

Ist - Samsung Galaxy S II
2nd - iPhone 4S
3rd - Samsung Galaxy Ace
4th - HTC Wildfire S
5th - iPhone 4

In total 8 android phones in the top 10 for the Christmas rush.

http://www.pcadvisor.co.uk/news/mobi...phone-of-2011/
post #13 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nairb View Post

Interesting to see how they go against Samsung.

Just in! Samsung Galaxy S II is top selling phone in the UK this year. A single phone released in May outsold any single iPhone for the year - even the iPhone 4 which was available all year. This single phone also outsold the iPhone 4S in December in the UK.

The top selling devices in the UK in December

Ist - Samsung Galaxy S II
2nd - iPhone 4S
3rd - Samsung Galaxy Ace
4th - HTC Wildfire S
5th - iPhone 4

In total 8 android phones in the top 10 for the Christmas rush.

http://www.pcadvisor.co.uk/news/mobi...phone-of-2011/

Never mind... uSwitch.com is an "impartial" comparison and "switching" service.

I'll leave it up to everyone to come to their own conclusions.

[ Why do they list the 4S 16g and 4 16g as number 1 and number 3 of top ten selling phones on their mobile phone page? ]
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post #14 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Never mind... uSwitch.com is an "impartial" comparison and "switching" service.

I'll leave it up to everyone to come to their own conclusions.

LOL. you changed your post as i was replying. Anyway in answer to your 'now unseen' question. No uSwitch makes up shit. It works things out by using "live sales and search data to rank handsets in order of popularity".
post #15 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nairb View Post

Interesting to see how they go against Samsung.

Just in! Samsung Galaxy S II is top selling phone in the UK this year. A single phone released in May outsold any single iPhone for the year - even the iPhone 4 which was available all year. This single phone also outsold the iPhone 4S in December in the UK.

The top selling devices in the UK in December

Ist - Samsung Galaxy S II
2nd - iPhone 4S
3rd - Samsung Galaxy Ace
4th - HTC Wildfire S
5th - iPhone 4

In total 8 android phones in the top 10 for the Christmas rush.

http://www.pcadvisor.co.uk/news/mobi...phone-of-2011/

Since you are basing your shit on PC Advisor, I'll quote them

"Eight handsets in the top 10 run Android, demonstrating growing interest in Google's mobile platform, which recently overtook Apple as the dominant mobile platform."

Hmm, OK, if we forget about Symbian or RIM. Gota love how facts are so 2010. Maybe I should say 2011, when was it that Apple stated selling more smartphones than RIM?

Nairb, stop trolling or at least don't post links that make it clear you are a fool.
post #16 of 65
On the bright side, AAPL has a very steady growth pattern over the last several years.

There are no big surprises and no fear of losses. Just no get-rich-quick jumps.
post #17 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

I disagree with the bolded. Apple's P/E multiple has been far lower than peer companies for years.

Lower than peers, yes. But, they were at least in the 20's until Steve took his medical leave. I'm not expecting anybody to value Apple's growth like Amazon's or Salesfarce, but at least in the 20's as a company with a long-term growth rate between 15 and 25%. That borders on possible at least.
post #18 of 65
Historically, Apple's share price goes up more than it goes down right after their earnings reports. But as with human nature, we tend to remember things we aren't happy with more than those that we are happy with, so we remember the times it went down more strongly.

One thing though, Apple's shares have tended to go down during the winter months for the past several years, while moving up Spring through December.
post #19 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

Lower than peers, yes. But, they were at least in the 20's until Steve took his medical leave. I'm not expecting anybody to value Apple's growth like Amazon's or Salesfarce, but at least in the 20's as a company with a long-term growth rate between 15 and 25%. That borders on possible at least.

I'm not too disappointed with Apple's share price. Look at the comparisons:

Dow Jones average up 5.5% for the year.

Standard and Poor's 500 was flat for the year, ending up almost exactly where it began, and

Nasdaq down 1.8% for the year while Apple was

UP 25.56%.

So yes, While the P/E, trailing, leading, etc were down, performance of the stock was very good. How many people can say their investments go up about 25-30% year after year?
post #20 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

But as with human nature, we tend to remember things we aren't happy with more than those that we are happy with, so we remember the times it went down more strongly.

I think you are projecting. That might be your nature, but it is not the nature of all humans.
post #21 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Historically, Apple's share price goes up more than it goes down right after their earnings reports. But as with human nature, we tend to remember things we aren't happy with more than those that we are happy with, so we remember the times it went down more strongly.

I think it might be an enduring myth that has been said so many times that others tend to believe it... no matter how many times you or the good Doctor point out the error each time it comes up.
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post #22 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

History does not support that observation, although I understand it's gratifying to be cynical.



How does that make you look intelligent or enlightened?

Because, he's right - it's true. History absolutely supports his statement, or at least for the past 15 years that I've been following the stock. As a rule, Apple appreciates until one to two days prior to the earnings announcement. Then, no matter the news, Apple stays flat or drops. If it's extra, really good, super exciting news, it MIGHT gain 5%.

Apple, unfortunately, is a rumor-driven stock, as evidenced by the fact that it doesn't adhere to normal market metrics and no one can seem to "figure it out" - analysts included. The vast majority of rumor information in the public domain is traded and amplified on a single website - this one (arguably the most important Apple rumor site on the internet)- and I'm sure you've noticed the stock rise or fall based on a report disseminated from appleinsider.com. Apple's stock price volitility is amplified because analysts really don't *get* why consumers are willing to pay slightly more for what they continue to mistakenly think has become a commodity.
post #23 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Historically, Apple's share price goes up more than it goes down right after their earnings reports.

Don't believe it based on my experience. Numbers, please.

Guess that also depends on how "right after" is defined. One day? One week? One month? I'll agree that the stock rebounds fairly consistently after earnings, but I still say it goes down more often than up.
post #24 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

History does not support that observation, although I understand it's gratifying to be cynical.

QFT. If Apple beats consensus expectations by at least 10% the stock usually rises on the news. Anything less is generally taken as a disappointment. This is the pattern we've seen over and over again.

We also have to like how the term "record quarter" is tossed around as though it has any meaning. An increase in EPS of $0.01 would be a "record" -- but it would also be a disaster. Year over year growth is what matters to investors, and that's not mentioned here at all.
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post #25 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I'm not too disappointed with Apple's share price. Look at the comparisons:

Dow Jones average up 5.5% for the year.

Standard and Poor's 500 was flat for the year, ending up almost exactly where it began, and

Nasdaq down 1.8% for the year while Apple was

UP 25.56%.

So yes, While the P/E, trailing, leading, etc were down, performance of the stock was very good. How many people can say their investments go up about 25-30% year after year?

I know you're comfortable with compressing PE, but I'm not. The reason AAPL managed a 25% increase in 2011 is because earnings were up by twice that much. If this had occurred in only one year, I would not be very concerned (the entire market behaved that way in 2011), but in the case of AAPL it's been going on for several years running now. This is not a comforting trend, particularly as we move inevitably towards lower earnings growth rates. The market is anticipating this way in advance of the actual event so the concern has to be what happens when earnings growth rates actually do decline.

We haven't had this little debate for a while. I wonder if anything has changed?
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post #26 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by quinney View Post

I think you are projecting. That might be your nature, but it is not the nature of all humans.

Sure it is. Take some psychology courses.
post #27 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by parksgm View Post

Because, he's right - it's true. History absolutely supports his statement, or at least for the past 15 years that I've been following the stock. As a rule, Apple appreciates until one to two days prior to the earnings announcement. Then, no matter the news, Apple stays flat or drops. If it's extra, really good, super exciting news, it MIGHT gain 5%.

Apple, unfortunately, is a rumor-driven stock, as evidenced by the fact that it doesn't adhere to normal market metrics and no one can seem to "figure it out" - analysts included. The vast majority of rumor information in the public domain is traded and amplified on a single website - this one (arguably the most important Apple rumor site on the internet)- and I'm sure you've noticed the stock rise or fall based on a report disseminated from appleinsider.com. Apple's stock price volitility is amplified because analysts really don't *get* why consumers are willing to pay slightly more for what they continue to mistakenly think has become a commodity.

It's not true though. Several months ago Andy Zaky did a good article on this.
post #28 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by parksgm View Post

Don't believe it based on my experience. Numbers, please.

Guess that also depends on how "right after" is defined. One day? One week? One month? I'll agree that the stock rebounds fairly consistently after earnings, but I still say it goes down more often than up.

Don't believe it. I've been investing in Apple for some time, and this is what I see. If you're watching the winter months, then Apples price often drops then, and of course, dropped during the recession, which lasted for some time. Without realizing it, people have that time stuck in their minds.
post #29 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

I know you're comfortable with compressing PE, but I'm not. The reason AAPL managed a 25% increase in 2011 is because earnings were up by twice that much. If this had occurred in only one year, I would not be very concerned (the entire market behaved that way in 2011), but in the case of AAPL it's been going on for several years running now. This is not a comforting trend, particularly as we move inevitably towards lower earnings growth rates. The market is anticipating this way in advance of the actual event so the concern has to be what happens when earnings growth rates actually do decline.

We haven't had this little debate for a while. I wonder if anything has changed?

I'm not comfortable with it, but I'm growing used to it. It can't compress forever. And I often wonder if P/E's are really expressing actual value, or whether they're pretty much all too high. The numbers assume certain values for articles which may not be as relevant as others. Just because the markets have certain P/E's for different industries doesnt mean those numbers are correct. Perhaps anything over a P/E of 20 is massive over exuberance.

Why is Amazon over a 90 P/E? Makes no sense.
post #30 of 65
As impressive as AAPL is, it's by definition one of the more likely stocks to disappoint, especially 3-5 years out. Such growth cannot continue. A piece of knowledge we have is that it can't grow to 1 trillion valuation. I predict they will handle maturity far better than Sony. And Sony was full of highly intelligent leaders in electronics. Eventually the valuation was... near zero. AAPL has one decade down. They are doing great. I say congratulations. Eventually Apple will be the grandpa in the industry. Rot can set in. They are doing an ideal job, but they are still human.
post #31 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by bwik View Post

As impressive as AAPL is, it's by definition one of the more likely stocks to disappoint, especially 3-5 years out. Such growth cannot continue. A piece of knowledge we have is that it can't grow to 1 trillion valuation. I predict they will handle maturity far better than Sony. And Sony was full of highly intelligent leaders in electronics. Eventually the valuation was... near zero. AAPL has one decade down. They are doing great. I say congratulations. Eventually Apple will be the grandpa in the industry. Rot can set in. They are doing an ideal job, but they are still human.

Well, there's no doubt that the law of large numbers must come about. It might show up this year. But Apple won't likely show 10% growth a year for years. Can it reach $1 trillion? Sure it can! There's no reasonable number that's out of reach eventually. Inflation alone will account for that. It's only 2.6 times Apple's current value as of close today. Asked ten years ago, no one would have thought Apple would have been worth $100 billion, much less almost $400 billion.

I read one very silly financial article that said Apple would never reach $1 trillion becauseget this: "no other company ever did." A sillier reason has rarely been expressed.
post #32 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

I know you're comfortable with compressing PE, but I'm not. The reason AAPL managed a 25% increase in 2011 is because earnings were up by twice that much. If this had occurred in only one year, I would not be very concerned (the entire market behaved that way in 2011), but in the case of AAPL it's been going on for several years running now. This is not a comforting trend, particularly as we move inevitably towards lower earnings growth rates. The market is anticipating this way in advance of the actual event so the concern has to be what happens when earnings growth rates actually do decline.

We haven't had this little debate for a while. I wonder if anything has changed?

Do you think AAPL will:

a) keep its price near present levels and therefore move the p/e higher?

b) move down in price but keep the current p/e ratio?

c) compress the p/e even further by moving down dramatically?

The scariest one would be c and that's what I'm afraid would happen... sadly.
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post #33 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I'm not comfortable with it, but I'm growing used to it. It can't compress forever. And I often wonder if P/E's are really expressing actual value, or whether they're pretty much all too high. The numbers assume certain values for articles which may not be as relevant as others. Just because the markets have certain P/E's for different industries doesnt mean those numbers are correct. Perhaps anything over a P/E of 20 is massive over exuberance.

Why is Amazon over a 90 P/E? Makes no sense.

I remembered in the past you saying you felt that the lower PE reduced the downside risk factor.

What PE expresses is investor sentiment, the premium they are willing to pay for future growth potential. For reasons that elude me, investors are expecting massive growth rates out of AMZN. With a PEG of nearly 6 they aren't getting them, but the expectations continue. For comparison, the PEG for AAPL is 0.6, so in this case investors are getting growth but not expecting it. Looking for logic there? Good luck.

What we might be forgetting here is our old friend momentum. Markets can drive stocks higher or lower for no other good reason than they are already moving in that direction. The herd effect is a powerful one. I suspect a comeuppance is due for AMZN but I would not hazard a guess as to when.
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post #34 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Do you AAPL will:

a) keep the stock price near present levels and therefore move the p/e higher?

b) move the stock price down - keeping the current p/e ratio?

c) compress the p/e even further by moving the sp down dramatically?

The scariest one would be c and that's what I'm afraid would happen... sadly.

If I understand what you are asking, I think you might be getting this backwards. If earnings increase (as we know they will) and the stock price does not increase proportionally, then PE compresses further. This is what's been going on for several years now. If Apple's earnings growth rate were to decline from its present neighborhood of 50% annually then I suspect the markets would lower the PE further by selling off the stock. AAPL could end up with a chart like MSFT.
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post #35 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

If I understand what you are asking, I think you might be getting this backwards. If earnings increase (as we know they will) and the stock price does not increase proportionally, then PE compresses further. This is what's been going on for several years now. If Apple's earnings growth rate were to decline from its present neighborhood of 50% annually then I suspect the markets would lower the PE further by selling off the stock. AAPL could end up with a chart like MSFT.

Oh, I meant if the earnings growth rate declined.

I realized that if growth declined they wouldn't raise the p/e... but I just had to add that as one scenario, even if it only had a snowball's chance in hell.

I too think the p/e would decline [and be compressed even more].

One thing that I always wonder... How is price set? Apple and Amazon are good examples of how wonky prices seem to be.

If 70% of Apple stock is held by institutions and 67.50% of Amazon stock is held by institutions then who or how is the price set?
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post #36 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

And the stock market will do what regarding AAPL I wonder ...?

The market will do what it always does... Fluctuate.
post #37 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Apple could sell 40 million iPhones, 6 million Macs but announce that they sold only 12 million iPads and it would tank the stock.

LOL. Sad but (hopefully not) true.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

It's a shame that record earnings doesn't help boost Apple share price to any degree. The bulls will again be disappointed when hardly any investors purchase Apple stock around earnings. Analysts continue to boost target prices but the share price barely moves. At least Apple shares today aren't down as much as most tech stocks, so I guess I should consider myself lucky that Apple shares have stayed over $400 for a week or so which is somewhat satisfactory. The last few times Apple hit over $400, it dropped like a stone after a couple of days. $450 a share seems very far off and $500 is nearly impossible. Despite what the Apple bulls say, I'll take my $450 and be grateful for that much.

Firstly, AAPL was well on its way to $450+ had the Market reacted rationally after its Earnings Call. This was manipulation and fearfully nonsensical Investor knee-jerk reactions at its best. Apple beat their own guidance, and had the most tangible excuse ever, why? Because the reason that their iPhones came in "less than desired" was because of that NEW PHONE BREAKING RECORDS AND PUTTING PEOPLE IN A FRENZY EXACTLY DURING SAID EARNINGS CALL. This to any logical or remotely intelligent Investor means BUY.

Second, even after the knee-jerk misguided sell-off, the Stock was ready to soar above $410 levels again. Then, after some unsubstantiated "rumors" from no sources whatsoever revealed that "Somebody sneezed in the direction of the iPad, so everybody get reaaaallly scared now", the Stock plummeted down a massive $50 in just a couple of weeks or less, only to bounce back up.

As far as I see it, the iPad has been practically priced out of the Stock by now. How many times does AAPL have to jump down $50 before people realize that the iPad is barely even considered in the Stocks valuation or P/E Ratio?

Reading these Message Boards is a GREAT INSIGHT as to why AAPL is valued like it is. It seems to attract the most fearful and jittery Investors on the Market! This is a company that can shut its doors for a decade and reappear still richer than most everyone else on the NASDAQ! A Company who has a lot to look forward to in 2012 in terms of new Products, not counting any hopefully all-new surprises, etc. etc.

I wish we had AMZN's Investors here! Those guys are nuts!
post #38 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by constable odo View Post

it's a shame that record earnings doesn't help boost apple share price to any degree. The bulls will again be disappointed when hardly any investors purchase apple stock around earnings. Analysts continue to boost target prices but the share price barely moves. At least apple shares today aren't down as much as most tech stocks, so i guess i should consider myself lucky that apple shares have stayed over $400 for a week or so which is somewhat satisfactory. The last few times apple hit over $400, it dropped like a stone after a couple of days. $450 a share seems very far off and $500 is nearly impossible. Despite what the apple bulls say, i'll take my $450 and be grateful for that much. :d

^^^this^^^
post #39 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

History does not support that observation, although I understand it's gratifying to be cynical.



How does that make you look intelligent or enlightened?

Well let's see shall we, for example the September quarter Apple dropped 5.6% after the earning were revealed. (Source: http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/artic...g_q4_earnings/)

It also dropped in June following the results.

I could go on, however my point was accurate and history backs me up.
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post #40 of 65
Quote:
Originally Posted by saarek View Post

Well let's see shall we, for example the September quarter Apple dropped 5.6% after the earning were revealed. (Source: http://www.macobserver.com/tmo/artic...g_q4_earnings/)

It also dropped in June following the results.

I could go on, however my point was accurate and history backs me up.

Please don't go on.

Last quarter's selloff was a function of missing the street's consensus. I was surprised that the drop wasn't larger. In other quarters when they've reported substantially above the street, the stock has jumped up, such as in 3Q 2010:

http://www.foxbusiness.com/technolog...-expectations/

Quote:
Shares of Apple rallied nearly 1% higher ahead of Tuesdays close, to finish the session up $3.05 at $376.85 a share, a new record close in regular trading. The stock was up $27.80 per share, more than 7%, in after-hours trading.
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