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Verizon numbers may suggest 35M iPhone sales in holiday quarter, analyst says

post #1 of 29
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Verizon's revelation that it sold 4.2 million iPhones in the December quarter has prompted one analyst to suggest that Apple may have sold as many as 35 million iPhones during the period.

UBS analyst Maynard Um extrapolated Verizon's sales figures late Wednesday to show a possible upside to the firm's 30 million unit estimate for Apple's December quarter iPhone performance.

Verizon CFO Francis Shammo had said earlier on Wednesday that the carrier sold 4.2 million iPhones during the period. Meanwhile, rival AT&T announced in early December that "strong" iPhone 4S sales had brought the carrier's smartphone sales in the first two months of the fourth quarter to 6 million, just shy of its quarterly record of 6.1 million sales.

Um estimated that AT&T's iPhone sales will reach 8 million and Sprint 's will hit 1.2 million for combined U.S. iPhone sales of 13.4 million. When compared to the firm's projection of 30 million units during the period, 13.4 million stateside iPhone sales would represent roughly 45 percent of global sales. According to Um, the U.S. mix of Apple's handset sales hasn't been that high since June 2009.

In fact, the analyst reports that the U.S.' proportion of worldwide iPhone sales ranged from 25-29 percent in fiscal 2011, as Apple continued "rapid expansion of international countries and carriers." The iPhone 4S launch should be even more skewed toward overseas, as it has been the fastest international rollout ever for the handset, reaching almost 70 countries by the end of 2011. The device will launch in 22 more countries, including China, on Jan. 13.



Um speculates that a conservative 38 percent mix, which is the highest mix from fiscal 2010, would imply demand for 35.3 million iPhones. That would represent more than 70 percent growth from the previous record of 20.3 million from the July 2011 quarter. Wall Street consensus expects Apple to have sold 25 million iPhones in the quarter.

Apple officials tipped their hand in October when they confidently stated that the iPhone 4S launch would drive handset sales to an all-time high in the December quarter. According to one analysis, Apple is poised to report the biggest earnings blowout in history on Jan. 24. The company has guided for $37 billion in the holiday quarter, representing the first time it will pass the $30-billion mark.
post #2 of 29
Uh oh, the Droidbois are going to be butt sore in the morning...

Anyway, grats Apple! Well deserved.
post #3 of 29
Well, according to the recent rumors we won't see the next iPhone until fall. The next three quarters Apple will have sequential decline in iPhone sales back to 15-20m.
post #4 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post

Well, according to the recent rumors we won't see the next iPhone until fall. The next three quarters Apple will have sequential decline in iPhone sales back to 15-20m.

35 million. Looks like world wide iPhone and Samsung sold the same number of smartphones last quarter. iPhone 4s and cheaper older iPhones did not seem to make much difference to Androids dominance.


"Analysts Expect Blowout Quarter for Samsung, Smartphone Sales of 35 Million"

http://www.dailytech.com/Analysts+Ex...ticle23669.htm

And this doesn't include all the other Android manufacturers.


But the one thing you can't deny, Apple is the big winner in terms of profits. Appears that they will more than double Samsungs Q4 profit, and tripple HTCs.
post #5 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post

Well, according to the recent rumors we won't see the next iPhone until fall. The next three quarters Apple will have sequential decline in iPhone sales back to 15-20m.

O dear o dear, woe is me, the sky is falling!

Are you people for real?
post #6 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post

Well, according to the recent rumors we won't see the next iPhone until fall. The next three quarters Apple will have sequential decline in iPhone sales back to 15-20m.

I don't think that sales will go down that far as (stated in the article) additional 22 countries are going to driver further growth.
post #7 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by copeland View Post

I don't think that sales will go down that far as (stated in the article) additional 22 countries are going to driver further growth.

Exactly. The 4S hitting mainland China will keep sales afloat for the next quarter, and if they were to strike a deal with one of China's larger carriers, sales would probably go up for the next 3 quarters.
post #8 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post

Well, according to the recent rumors we won't see the next iPhone until fall. The next three quarters Apple will have sequential decline in iPhone sales back to 15-20m.

You need to factor in china and the other 20 or so countries who won't receive the iPhone 5 for at least a year.
post #9 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post

Well, according to the recent rumors we won't see the next iPhone until fall. The next three quarters Apple will have sequential decline in iPhone sales back to 15-20m.

Oh clueless one, Apple still isn't even coming close to meeting demand! Asia is starved for the iPhone 4s. You can't get your hands on one without paying about $150 extra to a gray market seller here in China and totally unavailable online in Hong Kong. And even the 3Gs is sold out in Hong Kong, unable to order either model online since the 4S launch when they sold out preorders in 10 minutes. There is still a lot of runway ahead! And lets not forget that the market for smartphones is still expanding rapidly and the iPhone is the best option out there all things considered.
post #10 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ridley182 View Post

Uh oh, the Droidbois are going to be butt sore in the morning...

Oh shut up.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #11 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nairb View Post

"Analysts Expect Blowout Quarter for Samsung, Smartphone Sales of 35 Million"

http://www.dailytech.com/Analysts+Ex...ticle23669.htm

imo the article is a bit too peachy for Samsung but since the 35 millions iPhone projection didn't take into account a 7% drop in Europe, the iPhone number is too high too. The problem I see with Samsung is since Google bought Motorola there is risk of Google backstabing other Android manufactures if they give some kind of software hedge to Motorola phones. Its also possible Apple was able to make up for the EU lost by selling there phones elsewhere and still sold every phone they could make.

AAPL is still undervalue no matter what the numbers will be. On the other hand I really like Google with Android market share skyrocketing and upcoming presence in the TV business. Need to buy some Google but I am not going to buy at 52 week highs, need a dip.
post #12 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by FreeRange View Post

Oh clueless one, Apple still isn't even coming close to meeting demand! Asia is starved for the iPhone 4s.

Whilst you can walk into some authorised sellers in Japan and get a 4S straightaway, some SoftBank stores (Kawasaki Lazona, for one example) have waiting lists that mean you can't get a phone for over a month.

Horace Dedieu predicted 35mil about a month ago, interesting that the figures being floated are now coming to match that.
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post #13 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post

Well, according to the recent rumors we won't see the next iPhone until fall. The next three quarters Apple will have sequential decline in iPhone sales back to 15-20m.

That is a possibility and one that I have suspected for a while, although I would guess that the first 2012 calendar quarter will hold up rather well with the introduction in China.

If we do see a drop off in the second 2012 calendar quarter then you can expect a major drop off in the third 2012 calendar quarter.

With the possibility of Samsung also having a record quarter in the holiday season I can't see Apple waiting until fall 2012 for the release of v.6 of the iPhone.
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post #14 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

That is a possibility and one that I have suspected for a while, although I would guess that the first 2012 calendar quarter will hold up rather well with the introduction in China.

If we do see a drop off in the second 2012 calendar quarter then you can expect a major drop off in the third 2012 calendar quarter.

With the possibility of Samsung also having a record quarter in the holiday season I can't see Apple waiting until fall 2012 for the release of v.6 of the iPhone.

And looking at previous years where after the holiday sales the iPhone was 6 months old and more than halfway through their cycle thy still sold more units than the release month for the last two releases.



Q4 2007 - First full quarter for original iPhone
Q1 2008 - More sales than previous quarter

Q4 2009 - First full quarter for iPhone 3GS
Q1 2010 - Holiday quarter
Q2 2010 - On par with holiday quarter
Q3 2010 - On par with holiday quarter

Q4 2010 - First full quarter for iPhone 4
Q1 2011 - Holiday quarter
Q2 2011 - More sales than holiday quarter
Q3 2011 - More sales than holiday quarter


So why do we expect that the sales will drop off after the holidays?

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post #15 of 29
To be honest the future is all rosy for Apple at the moment.

Apple doesn't need to outsell Android or even Samsung as long as they're cashing it in... their message and product placement is just working out perfectly right now. Apple has maintained the "the phone to get" status for the iPhone now - the same status the "best" Nokia phone used to have. Best phone? Latest iPhone! That's the default reaction of the average mom in the shopping mall here in Asia. Only tech nerds know about the Galaxy Nexus and whether or not it's better. The Android numbers are made up by cheaper phones for people who don't want to or can't afford an iPhone.

That means that now, everyone and their brother will be getting iPhones and they'll continue selling like hotcakes. Meanwhile those small things that Apple do to lock people into the iPhone ecosystem are beginning to take hold. My mom just got an iPhone and suddenly her (international, I should mention) text messages were iMessage. Whoa how cool is that, free international text messages. Automatically. Which means that people like my mom can use this... my mom isn't going to install a chat client, or Kix, or whatever, she has no clue what that is... but she can send text messages and they're now free.

The only thing I have an issue with is Apple's low end - nobody wants to buy an old phone. I'd much rather buy a brand new cheap phone than the high end from 2 years ago. I think Apple doesn't quite get the phone market in this aspect. Would it kill them to release good / better / best versions every year? Not because they'd be different from the 1 and 2 year old phones internally, but just to keep it fresh.
post #16 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

And looking at previous years where after the holiday sales the iPhone was 6 months old and more than halfway through their cycle thy still sold more units than the release month for the last two releases.

Q3-2007 first full quarter
Q4-2008 more sales than previous quaarter

So why do we expect that the sales will drop off after the holidays?

Q4 2011 looks interesting [ as does Q3 in 2010 ].

We'll see...

[regarding the statement in bold... re-read my post]
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post #17 of 29
Q4 2011 was covered in the conference call with financial analysts. The 2.4 million unit drop was anticipated due to sell through declines in anticipation of the iPhone 4S. Apple actually expected a greater decline than 2.4 million, and hence, they ended up with $3 billion more in revenue than guidance.

Q3 2010's drop was largely due to severe supply constraints of the iPhone 4. I believe Apple referred to it as "the mother of all backlogs."

With the impending release of the iPhone 4S in China, Q2 2012 promises to be very interesting and we haven't even seen the Q1 2012 numbers! In two short years, China had gone from 2% to 16% of Apple's revenue; it is now their number two top revenue market.
post #18 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

Q4 2011 was covered in the conference call with financial analysts. The 2.4 million unit drop was anticipated due to sell through declines in anticipation of the iPhone 4S. Apple actually expected a greater decline than 2.4 million, and hence, they ended up with $3 billion more in revenue than guidance.

Q3 2010's drop was largely due to severe supply constraints of the iPhone 4. I believe Apple referred to it as "the mother of all backlogs."

With the impending release of the iPhone 4S in China, Q2 2012 promises to be very interesting and we haven't even seen the Q1 2012 numbers! In two short years, China had gone from 2% to 16% of Apple's revenue; it is now their number two top revenue market.

Oh... so there were drops in numbers at some point.

Exactly what I'm saying.

I don't expect it to happen in Q1 2012 calendar quarter.

"If" a drop occurs in the Q2 2012 calendar quarter (and I think it will) then it will be even more severe in Q3.

Samsung certainly has surprised me if it's true that they also sold a record 35 million phones. As someone pointed out (in this thread or another), "Samsung markets specs" and, imo, specs sell well in the retail market, especially when the manufacturer adds spiffs. The competition has upped its game considerably over the last year and it's not like the early iPhone years. Apple truly has its work cut out for it, regardless if they are selling everything they can manufacture or not. jmho
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post #19 of 29
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Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

With the impending release of the iPhone 4S in China, Q2 2012 promises to be very interesting and we haven't even seen the Q1 2012 numbers! In two short years, China had gone from 2% to 16% of Apple's revenue; it is now their number two top revenue market.

Just imagine if Apple can get a deal and components for the iPhone on China Mobile's GSM/TD-SCDMA network.

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post #20 of 29
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Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Samsung certainly has surprised me if it's true that they also sold a record 35 million phones. As someone pointed out (in this thread or another), "Samsung markets specs" and, imo, specs sell well in the retail market, especially when the manufacturer adds spiffs. The competition has upped its game considerably over the last year and it's not like the early iPhone years. Apple truly has its work cut out for it, regardless if they are selling everything they can manufacture or not. jmho

Samsung's big sales numbers don't surprise me. Like Huawei, ZTC and Pantech and others, Samsung is selling a lot of handsets in Southeast Asia.

Apple does have their work cut out for them if they want to corner the smartphone industry's profits. I don't think Apple should remain content gobbling up only two-thirds of the smartphone profits.

post #21 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

Samsung's big sales numbers don't surprise me. Like Huawei, ZTC and Pantech and others, Samsung is selling a lot of handsets in Southeast Asia.

Apple does have their work cut out for them if they want to corner the smartphone industry's profits. I don't think Apple should remain content gobbling up only two-thirds of the smartphone profits.


... and investors in Apple will not be happy if they see sequential drops in iPhone sales (and/or drops in iPad sales).

As has been pointed out numerous times, Apple's profits don't seem to impress investors as much as they should (or we feel they should). Any pullback in growth will surely ring some alarm bells.

Investors want to see steady growth (and Apple may well continue to show that)... period.

... and I'm surprised that you don't find a bit of concern that Samsung does well in Asia just as Apple is about to enter the 4S into China.
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post #22 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by F1Ferrari View Post

Exactly. The 4S hitting mainland China will keep sales afloat for the next quarter, and if they were to strike a deal with one of China's larger carriers, sales would probably go up for the next 3 quarters.

Apple currently has a deal with the 2nd largest carrier in China. (Right?)

And they probably won't strike a deal with China's largest carrier (China Mobile) until the next version of iPhone is released. Reason: the current version of the iPhone is not compatible with China Mobile's homegrown 3G data network, so it resorts to using "Edge". (Ugh!) Of course, people are running iPhones on that network using grey market phones, but I don't think that Apple wants to endorse or promote that crippled circumstance.

So I agree with you regarding sales in this next quarter. But the subsequent ones may be tough.

Thompson
post #23 of 29
Or it could be that the theory holds at least some water that Verizon users were simply waiting for the next generation iPhone instead of buying an already-8-month-old design when the iPhone first came to Verizon. First thinking that it would come in the summer, and then later being willing to wait until Fall.

After all, even Apple said that anticipation of the new iPhone caused a lot of people to hold off waiting to make their purchase, which, to a degree, backs up the theory. Let's see what ATT reports for iPhone sales. No doubt it will be more then Verizon, if for no other reason than the 3GS. But let's see if they saw the same percentage increase as Verizon did.
post #24 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

That is a possibility and one that I have suspected for a while, although I would guess that the first 2012 calendar quarter will hold up rather well with the introduction in China.

There is no way Apple could repeat or exceed sales (35M) of this quarter in the next one.
And please, do not overestimate capacity of the $700+ phone market in China.
post #25 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post

There is no way Apple could repeat or exceed sales (35M) of this quarter in the next one.
And please, do not overestimate capacity of the $700+ phone market in China.

It was also said they couldn't exceed the 16 million iPhone sales they did last holiday quarter either, but they have yet to go below that value, even with iPhone 4 pushing into it's 5th full quarter with no 5th generation iPhone in sight.

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post #26 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by jason98 View Post

There is no way Apple could repeat or exceed sales (35M) of this quarter in the next one.
And please, do not overestimate capacity of the $700+ phone market in China.

I'm not ready to concede defeat of the idea that Apple, in the current quarter, will equal or come very close to the sales in the holiday quarter.

The April - June quarter, yes, I think the sales will be significantly lower, but I'm still holding out hope for the January - March quarter.

We'll see.
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post #27 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Oh... so there were drops in numbers at some point.

Exactly what I'm saying.

I don't expect it to happen in Q1 2012 calendar quarter.

"If" a drop occurs in the Q2 2012 calendar quarter (and I think it will) then it will be even more severe in Q3.

Samsung certainly has surprised me if it's true that they also sold a record 35 million phones. As someone pointed out (in this thread or another), "Samsung markets specs" and, imo, specs sell well in the retail market, especially when the manufacturer adds spiffs. The competition has upped its game considerably over the last year and it's not like the early iPhone years. Apple truly has its work cut out for it, regardless if they are selling everything they can manufacture or not. jmho

Not all of samsungs 35 million phones are smart phones in that mix are a ton of dumb phones and "feature phones" as well.
Samsung currently sells according to there web sight 25 different android phones, 5 models of windows phones, .
They have 144 cell phones on there sight for sale right now total. That leaves the rest in the feature or dumb phone catagory, and because samsung wont break out sales in there 10k filing by model or even report acutual sell through to customer numbers you really cant tell if this 35 million is all android or not. I would strongly susspect not. Apple on the other hand does report 10k filing numbers on there iphones sold to end customers not just shipped as samsung does.
post #28 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mechanic View Post

Not all of samsungs 35 million phones are smart phones in that mix are a ton of dumb phones and "feature phones" as well.
Samsung currently sells according to there web sight 25 different android phones, 5 models of windows phones, .
They have 144 cell phones on there sight for sale right now total. That leaves the rest in the feature or dumb phone catagory, and because samsung wont break out sales in there 10k filing by model or even report acutual sell through to customer numbers you really cant tell if this 35 million is all android or not. I would strongly susspect not. Apple on the other hand does report 10k filing numbers on there iphones sold to end customers not just shipped as samsung does.

Yeah... I thought about that later.

Still... it does sound like Samsung is firing on all cylinders at the moment.

They might stagnate, though, because Apple hasn't brought out a new form factor that they can copy...
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post #29 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mechanic View Post

Not all of samsungs 35 million phones are smart phones in that mix are a ton of dumb phones and "feature phones" as well.

According to the press releases, "(Samsung) Smartphone shipments are forecast at a record 35 million in the fourth quarter, up one quarter from the preceding three months, when it first surged past Apple as the world's top smartphone vendor.
In 2012 it is expected to sell as many as 170 million smartphones . . ."


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/world...#ixzz1idos7UbG
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