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Apple projected to reach 116M iPhone, 55M iPad sales in 2012

post #1 of 20
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Combined iPhone and iPad sales in calendar 2012 are expected in one new forecast to reach more than 170 million in another record breaking 12-month span.

Analyst Michael Walkley with Canaccord Genuity issued a pair of research notes to investors on Friday in which he has projected how the tablet and smartphone markets will shake out over the next year. He sees 2012 being another banner year for Apple, with sales of 116.4 million iPhones and 54.6 million iPads.

He sees iOS representing 18 percent of the mobile operating system share, good for second place behind only Google's Android with 51.9 percent on sales of 335.5 million handsets. Projected sales of 116.4 million iPhones would be nearly 20 million greater than he estimates Apple sold in 2011, with conservatively estimated holiday sales of 30.5 million. Apple will officially confirm iPhone sales on Jan. 24.

"We believe Apple sold through at least (12 million) iPhone units in the U.S. market during the December quarter," Walkley wrote. "With some channel inventory built for the new 4S, we believe the U.S. market could exceed (14 million) iPhones sold into the channel during the December quarter."

In the month of December, Walkley said the iPhone 4S was the best selling smartphone at all three carriers where it is available: AT&T, Sprint and Verizon. Samsung had the No. 2 selling smartphone at all carriers, with the Galaxy S II taking second at AT&T and Sprint, while the Galaxy Nexus took second at Verizon. Apple's $99 iPhone 4 was the third-best selling handset at AT&T, while at Verizon the Motorola Droid Razr took third.



Outside the U.S., Walkley said his industry sources have indicated that Apple's iPhone is also seeing strong market share gains in countries such as Brazil and Russia. He also has high hopes for the forthcoming launch of the iPhone 4S in China.

As for the iPad, Walkley has called for Apple's market share to dip to 52.4 percent in 2012 on sales of 54.6 million. He assumes Apple closed out 2011 with total sales of 38.1 million iPads, with 13 million sold in the last quarter of the calendar year. Those totals for 2011 would represent 63.2 percent of tablets sold in the year.



Projected to see the greatest gain in tablet market share in 2012 is Amazon, growing from an estimated 6.2 percent in calendar 2011 to a projected 10.3 percent in 2012. Samsung is also seen growing its share from 8.3 percent in 2011 to 9.6 percent in 2012, reaching sales of 10 million units over the next year.

Walkley said his industry checks have indicated that the iPad 2 is the top selling global tablet with the newly released Amazon Kindle Fire its closest competitor. He believes the main reason the Kindle Fire found initial success is because of its "materially lower price" of $199.

Canaccord Genuity continues to rank AAPL stock a "top pick" with a "buy" rating, and has maintained its price target of $560.
post #2 of 20
Nope, they'll sell maybe 100,000 iPads and 400,000 iPhones.

Apple will have only 2% marketshare by the end of 2012. I'd be very surprised if that wasn't the case. There, now slapppy doesn't have to post at all.

Originally posted by Relic

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Originally posted by Relic

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post #3 of 20
Since we're guessing...

I'd say that "if" Apple brings out a redesigned v.6 iPhone in July then you can expect the iPhone numbers to increase in the last two quarters to about 80 million total and possibly 90 million if they can make them fast enough.
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post #4 of 20
Those numbers seems very low.

If Apple sells 35 million iPhones this quarter, historically and with the new markets for 2012 they will continue that average ±7% for the next two quarters. That's over 100 million for the first 3 fiscal quarters of 2012. If they are only counting calendar quarters that's 70 million for only 2 quarters and the final quarter likely being a new iPhone for the holiday quarter that will double the previous year's unit sales, based on history and smartphone adoption rates which means 140 million just from 3 calendar quarters of 2012.

We already know Apple sold 72.3 million units for 2011 fiscal year and a projected 91.06 million for 2011 calendar year so going to 116 million is only 60% or 27%, respectively, which is well below what Apple has been averaging in this growing market. It's also without considering the 3GS being sold free on contract and the iPhone 4 likely taking that position next year.

The iPad is too new to use historical data but their pre-holiday quarter when the device was midcycle sold 11.12 million units. That tells me this is also quite low. Holiday sales and 3rd generation upgrades along with market interest will boost these these numbers. I would expect no less than 70 million for calendar year 2012, and 90 million if they can pull off the HiDPI display without a performance or battery hit while maintaining the same price points.

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #5 of 20
Yes. That, or they'll invent a new product category that make both obsolete.
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post #6 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by RKpro View Post

Yes. That, or they'll invent a new product category that make both obsolete.

The iPadhone? iPhoneblet? The Lucy?

Originally posted by Relic

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Originally posted by Relic

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post #7 of 20
Thrown in the traditional hardware offerings and add the HDTV option and it's clear Apple can push between $125 - $150 Billion in gross sales for the year.
post #8 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Nope, they'll sell maybe 100,000 iPads and 400,000 iPhones.

Apple will have only 2% marketshare by the end of 2012. I'd be very surprised if that wasn't the case. There, now slapppy doesn't have to post at all.




Should you too be banned? I was doing the exact same thing.
post #9 of 20
All you have to do is look at the Android Market to realize that the data present is not consistent with reality. NOTE: They are talking "sales".

The Android Market supports about 6.6 million Android tablets in use (sold) for 2011. If we add up Gartner's numbers:

Samsung: 5.0
MMI: 1.0
LG: 1.7
HTC: 1.2
Asus: 3.0
Toshiba: ?
---------
Total: >11.9 million

REF: http://developer.android.com/resourc...-versions.html
REF: 200 million Android devices activated (This includes tablets without cell access)

So the question is, we know the total is about 6.6 million Android tablets sold in 2011. How do they account for the missing >5.3 million tablets? For 2012, it will be an Amazon/Apple year. Amazon will simply kill all other Android tablets. Expect Amazon to get 20-30% market share with Samsung/HTC/LG down to around 1%.

WP7: Let's say it does grow like they predict (It is good so it might). Where is the canibalization in Android's market share as a result? WP7 growth will come from Android/RIMM and not iOS. Why does the iPhone all of a sudden flat line on growth?

For a better historical understanding of this (Analysts use this data to make future predictions), read this:

http://www.asymco.com/2011/12/22/who...easonable-now/
post #10 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Nope, they'll sell maybe 100,000 iPads and 400,000 iPhones.

Apple will have only 2% marketshare by the end of 2012. I'd be very surprised if that wasn't the case. There, now slapppy doesn't have to post at all.

Is that you, Slappy?
post #11 of 20
It's really hard to compare all these numbers - I've seen comparisons of sales, shipments, users, and even bandwidth consumption. Additionally, Apple, being tightly controlled knows exactly how many devices they make, ship, sell, and are in use.

Android, however, is a different thing - no one really knows how many devices are sold, shipped, or used. You can get a good idea from the top tier manufacturers, but exact numbers are impossible.

Google has said that they're "activating" 700k devices per day - but it's unclear how that relates to the real number of android devices out there (and if certain devices like the Kindle which do not "activate" with Google should count).

My gut feeling is that Apple is at least slowing down in comparison to the market growth (many released reports support this), but it's entirely unclear what the magnitude of this loss is. Apple, Google, et al, are not going to be helpful in figuring this out.
post #12 of 20
He sees iOS representing 18 percent of the mobile operating system share, good for second place behind only Google's Android with 51.9 percent on sales of 335.5 million handsets.

Wait a minute, I'm confused.
Don't iPods and iPads run the iOS mobile operating system? Aren't there more iOS devices being sold than there are Android devices?
( I don't give s**t whether they are "cell phones" or not.) How many copies of iOS are out there in the world vs. how many copies of Android OS are out there.
post #13 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by isaidso View Post

He sees iOS representing 18 percent of the mobile operating system share, good for second place behind only Google's Android with 51.9 percent on sales of 335.5 million handsets.

Wait a minute, I'm confused.
Don't iPods and iPads run the iOS mobile operating system? Aren't there more iOS devices being sold than there are Android devices?
( I don't give s**t whether they are "cell phones" or not.) How many copies of iOS are out there in the world vs. how many copies of Android OS are out there.

Right now they're roughly the same based on estimates. Cumulatively there should be more "official" Google-counted Android devices in consumer hands than iOS sometime early this year if it hasn't already occurred.

http://www.asymco.com/2011/12/21/how...een-activated/
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post #14 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by isaidso View Post

He sees iOS representing 18 percent of the mobile operating system share, good for second place behind only Google's Android with 51.9 percent on sales of 335.5 million handsets.

Wait a minute, I'm confused.
Don't iPods and iPads run the iOS mobile operating system? Aren't there more iOS devices being sold than there are Android devices?
( I don't give s**t whether they are "cell phones" or not.) How many copies of iOS are out there in the world vs. how many copies of Android OS are out there.

Different question but they really should be more consistent. If you are talking "smartphones" say "iPhone". Use iOS IFF (If and only If) you are talking about iPhone/iPod Touch/iPad combined. With Android, it gets a bit confusing as well. You have anemic PMP sales a an optimistic 6.6 million tablets as part of their totals. When Google talks about "Activations" they include all these devices now. It used to only be smartphones but now includes WiFi only enabled devices if it comes with Google's proprietary software.
post #15 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Right now they're roughly the same based on estimates. Cumulatively there will be more "official" Google-counted Android devices in consumer hands than iOS sometime early this year if it hasn't already occurred.

http://www.asymco.com/2011/12/21/how...een-activated/

You are getting way ahead of your self. The best estimate right now is there are about 230,000,000 official Android devices and 300,000,000 iOS devices. It will be sometime in the 3rd or 4th quarter that the 70,000,000 device gap is closed.
post #16 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steven N. View Post

You are getting way ahead of your self. The best estimate right now is there are about 230,000,000 official Android devices and 300,000,000 iOS devices. It will be sometime in the 3rd or 4th quarter that the 70,000,000 device gap is closed.

I hadn't seen the 300M figure for iOS. Could be correct, but where did that claim come from? In June Apple was claiming approx. 200M

EDIT: Ah, got it. 250M thru September and likely another 60M or so this quarter. So currently maybe 550K per day? You're probably correct as I mistakenly thought iOS was at 240 or so rather than 300M total sold to date. Thanks for the correction
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post #17 of 20
I love how for the last year or two analysts keep predicting that WP7 will magically take off in 6 months from whenever they're making their predictions. It appears to be hardwired into their DNA that Microsoft products MUST succeed.

In reality, every quarter that passes with WP7 sales languishing reduces the chances that it will ever take off. Barring some unlikely string of devastating legal losses for Android, I'd say WP7 is done.

And yeah, the iPhone sales estimates seem low-balled.
post #18 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post

I love how for the last year or two analysts keep predicting that WP7 will magically take off in 6 months from whenever they're making their predictions. It appears to be hardwired into their DNA that Microsoft products MUST succeed.

In reality, every quarter that passes with WP7 sales languishing reduces the chances that it will ever take off. Barring some unlikely string of devastating legal losses for Android, I'd say WP7 is done.

And yeah, the iPhone sales estimates seem low-balled.

Everything Apple does is fighting a head wind and about to come crashing to the floor. Even these numbers show the iPhone and iPad all of a sudden stopping its growth. Go figure.
post #19 of 20
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I hadn't seen the 300M figure for iOS. Could be correct, but where did that claim come from? In June Apple was claiming approx. 200M

EDIT: Ah, got it. 250M thru September and likely another 60M or so this quarter. So currently maybe 550K per day? You're probably correct as I mistakenly thought iOS was at 240 or so rather than 300M total sold to date. Thanks for the correction

I am guessing numbers to be around 33-37 million iPhones. 14-16 million iPads. 6-10 million iPod Touches (oddly, I know lots that went as gifts). So a range of 53-63 million iOS devices.

In short, there is a bucket load of both iOS and Android devices being sold.
post #20 of 20
All of this talk about "market share" as if there is some contest... where if one platform doesn't reach a certain number by a certain date... they are forced to quit.

Madness!

Apple is the only company selling iOS devices... while there are a dozen manufacturers of Android devices (and hundreds of those)

Clearly... Android will have the "sheer number" advantage... and yet certain Android manufacturers are struggling. I wouldn't exactly call that "strength in numbers"

Android toppled Apple in smartphone market share a year ago. But what has that done exactly... aside from bragging rights?

I guess you could say Google is the big "winner" if there ever was one... but even that's a stretch.

Apple will continue to do what they do... despite what the "other guys" are doing.
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