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Rumored March launch of high-res 'iPad 3' portrayed as 'completely accurate'

post #1 of 72
Thread Starter 
Rumors of a March launch for Apple's third-generation iPad with a high-resolution Retina Display have been deemed "completely accurate," though a claim that Apple will launch an "iPad 4" this October was written off as "completely made-up nonsense."

John Gruber of Daring Fireball issued a response on Friday to a new report from DigiTimes that gained attention earlier in the day. That report from the Taiwan-based publication said that Apple will ship a third-generation iPad in March with a high-definition display.

"Wait a minute. What's going on here?" Gruber responded sarcastically. "A DigiTimes report about Apple and the iPad that's completely accurate? No completely made-up nonsense? Is something wrong with me?"

He then went on to quote the portion of the article that said an "iPad 4" with "killer applications" will arrive in October. To that he responded, "OK, phew, what a relief."

Though the post was tongue-in-cheek, Gruber seemingly does use it to confirm a March launch of the next iPad, consistent with the timeframe of the the iPad 2 launch in 2011. He has also said on previous occasions that he believes the next iPad will sport a high-resolution Retina Display. Gruber is well-connected and has a reliable track record on Apple predictions.

Separately, Gruber took a few guesses at what Apple might do in 2012 for Macworld. There he suggested that Apple's Retina Display branding would only apply to new high-end models.



"I think Apple will continue selling the existing iPad 2 alongside the new ones, or introduce a new lower-end model that still sports today's 1024-by 768-pixel screen, simply because I think the retina-display iPad will be a bit expensive," he said. "I think the new iPad models will use the same screen size as today's -- no 7-inch model."

As for the next iPhone, Gruber believes it will be a completely redesigned model that will arrive in late 2012, like the iPhone 4S. He doesn't expect that the new iPhone will have a larger display, but he does see Apple including an even better camera than is in the iPhone 4S.
post #2 of 72
These analysts have completely no idea.
post #3 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

You don't need any connections to guess that the next iPad will arrive about a year after the last one or to see that the resolution will increase. You could also extrapolate that it will have better cameras, CPU and GPU as well. duh...

As to his last prediction, I would be shocked if the next iPhone doesn't have larger than a 3.5" screen. No, Apple won't make a 4.65" monstrosity, but certainly something in the 3.8" to 4.1" range seems not only plausible but very likely.

As long as it will slip into my pocket and not break when I sit I am happy. My Brother's Galaxy S broke on his second time of sitting, but the damn thing is way to big and too tight in the pocket. Yes, we are a family divided. LOL
post #4 of 72
When even the analysts are making fun of analysts, you know something's wrong.

Originally Posted by Marvin

The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
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Originally Posted by Marvin

The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
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post #5 of 72
Wait.. Didn't Gruber said the exact same thing last year? (iPad in March and iPad Pro in Oct).

I think he just realized how silly that sounded. The truth is Apple will only release one major iPhone update and one major iPad update every year.
post #6 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

Personally I would love a 4.6" iPhone and don't find them too big at all.

I ask because they don't let us actually use them in the stores, but is it even possible to use a 'phone' like that with one hand?

Quote:
But Apple is not stupid and realize that 3.5" seemed huge 5 years ago but now it might be time to make the screen a tad larger.

Which is why they had 3G on the first iPhone and added LTE the second other companies started including it.

Originally Posted by Marvin

The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
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Originally Posted by Marvin

The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
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post #7 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

As to his last prediction, I would be shocked if the next iPhone doesn't have larger than a 3.5" screen. No, Apple won't make a 4.65" monstrosity, but certainly something in the 3.8" to 4.1" range seems not only plausible but very likely.

I like how a mere half-inch separates reasonable from "monstrosity."
post #8 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

Personally I would love a 4.6" iPhone and don't find them too big at all. I know I might be in the minority on this forum, but my best friend has the Galaxy SII Epic Touch with a 4.65" screen and it fits in my pocket fine. Not really that much bigger than my iPhone. But Apple is not stupid and realize that 3.5" seemed huge 5 years ago but now it might be time to make the screen a tad larger.

You've ignored the different aspect ratios being used. A 4.6" iPhone would be considerably wider than a 4.65" Galaxy which is already too large for the average to use in one hand using a standard thumb radius.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply
post #9 of 72
There won't be an iPad 4 released this year. Apple has no need to release another major version that soon. They could release tweaks later (e.g. one with LTE support inside) but that does not qualify for a major revision number on its own.
post #10 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by redbarchetta View Post

I like how a mere half-inch separates reasonable from "monstrosity."

For a phone, it quite easily can.

Originally Posted by Marvin

The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
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Originally Posted by Marvin

The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
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post #11 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by redbarchetta View Post

I like how a mere half-inch separates reasonable from "monstrosity."

Are you serious??
a 1/2 inch is extremely significant in the palm of a hand.
We're talking about a cell phone; not a building.
post #12 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

These analysts have completely no idea.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

When even the analysts are making fun of analysts, you know something's wrong.

Gruber isn't an analyst, people. He's a blogger.
post #13 of 72
for the statistical majority of people: if you hold the iPhone in the palm of your hand you can comfortably reach the opposite corner of the touchscreen with your thumb. this is HUGE from a useability standpoint. try clicking a button in that corner on a 4.6" screen - you'll have to reposition the phone in your hand. This FORCED change in how you have to hold the device in order to operate it is incredibly subtle to some, but to Apple designers it's a major nuisance and a design failure.
post #14 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

...certainly something in the 3.8" to 4.1" range seems not only plausible but very likely.

"Plausible" how? How will apps scale to a larger screen without needing to be re-written?

"Likely" how? Likely as in, they've refused to make a larger iPhone in 5 years, with absolutely no detrimental effect on sales? So now all of a sudden they're gonna make it bigger?
post #15 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by NasserAE View Post

Wait.. Didn't Gruber said the exact same thing last year? (iPad in March and iPad Pro in Oct).

I think he just realized how silly that sounded. The truth is Apple will only release one major iPhone update and one major iPad update every year.

Totally agree. Apple realizes they only have to release what they absolutely have to. They are already so far ahead of the competition as it is now. The realize they should milk each product as much as they can to create the greatest return on their investment.

Also, they need not counter the Kindle except by lowering the price of the existing iPad 2 when the iPad 3 comes out. And, that's about as far as they'll go in terms of trying to compete with the Kindle. Fact is they realize they don't have to own the entire market nor do they want to if it means compromising on their position in the marketplace.

As for the iPhone, it is clear how the phone could be improved (better cameras, thinner, LTE, NFC, etc). Whether they do or not depends on what they feel they can implement the way they want to (which is why LTE has not been implemented yet) and what they need to do to keep their phones selling like crazy (but not necessarily keeping their phones competitive in all features just for the sake of staying competitive).

As for a larger screen, one will only see this within the confines of the existing form-fractor of the phone. The beauty of the iPhone is that you can touch all areas of the screen with the fingers of the hand you are holding it in. Steve Jobs was adamant about this being the case and it makes so much sense. This means edge to edge and perhaps to incorporate a toch sensitive home key is the largest screen you are going to see. But, this may not even happen as it will require developers to create different versions of their software. So, you can be sure Apple will think long and hard about this before they implement it.

Apple is not stupid and nothing they do is a knee-jerk reaction.
post #16 of 72
The iPad 4 rumor in 2012 makes as much sense as Gruber's iPad 3 prediction, which was supposed to happen in the fall of 2011. Both predictions and rumors were and are equally retarded.
post #17 of 72
I still put no stock in the Retina display on iPad3. Makes no sense from a manufacturing or competitive standpoint.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #18 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

I still put no stock in the Retina display on iPad3. Makes no sense from a manufacturing or competitive standpoint.

"Makes no sense from a manufacturing or competitive standpoint."

Why not? It definitely became a competitive standpoint when the iPhone 4 was introduced. Adding a 2048x1536 resolution screen would definitely making reading and using Safari so much better plus the added benefit of improving graphics in games.
post #19 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleStud View Post

"Plausible" how? How will apps scale to a larger screen without needing to be re-written?

"Likely" how? Likely as in, they've refused to make a larger iPhone in 5 years, with absolutely no detrimental effect on sales? So now all of a sudden they're gonna make it bigger?

The way I see it as plausible is 3 fold.

1) Scaling to around 4" while lessening the side border and/or thinning the device could allow for the same or even better range with your thumb when one handed.

2) Apple did not release a new iPod Touch this past Autumn. While the Autumn release for the iPod is typical Apple has never released the iPod Touch alongside the new iPhone which tells me the G5 iPod Touch will come early this year, perhaps demoed with the next iPad. This would be the perfect opportunity for Apple to grow the iPod brand by offering a larger size in the ≈4"( and, perhaps, ≈7") size.

3) Still maintaining the 960x640 resolution. With games items would simply be a bit larger and for detailed apps elements would be larger but not annoyingly so even though not ideal. While iOS would have been adjusted for the change they could release an updated version of Xcode that day and give developers about 6 months to ready their wares for an impending iPhone of the same dimensions. The difference in PPI still falls within Retina Display for someone with 20/20 vision from 12" away. Since this would be a PMP release and not a smartphone the "detrimental effect" is severely diminished.

This is not to say this is a prediction, just a scenario that would facilitate Apple being able to move the iPhone into a larger default display with minimal drawback.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply
post #20 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by John Gruber

Hardware: New iPads early in 2012, including high-end models with double-resolution retina displays. I think Apple will continue selling the existing iPad 2 alongside the new ones, or introduce a new lower-end model that still sports today’s 1024- by 768-pixel screen, simply because I think the retina-display iPad will be a bit expensive. I think the new iPads models will use the same screen size as today’s—no 7-inch model.

Hmm. This makes me think I was right to believe there'd be a $200 difference between the carry-over iPad 2 and iPad 3, but wrong that the iPad 3 would still start at $499. Based on Gruber's comment, I'm now thinking that the line-up will start like this:

iPad 2 16GB/WiFi (dual-core A5, 1024x768 display)i: $399
iPad 3 32GB/WiFi (quad-core A6, 2048x1536 display): $599

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

The iPad 4 rumor in 2012 makes as much sense as Gruber's iPad 3 prediction, which was supposed to happen in the fall of 2011. Both predictions and rumors were and are equally retarded.

I don't recall Gruber ever backing the 2011 iPad 3 release rumor; in fact I remember him being very much opposed to it.
post #21 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

I still put no stock in the Retina display on iPad3. Makes no sense from a manufacturing or competitive standpoint.

thats a certainty, by now.
I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
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I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
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post #22 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

I still put no stock in the Retina display on iPad3. Makes no sense from a manufacturing or competitive standpoint.

I put plenty of stock in Retina Display on the iPad, my only concern is that the technology to support it may be not be ideal for a 2012 release. Cost, display thickness, backlight brightness, power usage, and GPU performance are my main concerns.

As tru_canuk stated the iPhone 4's display was a competitive move. Right now the iPad's display isn't pretty good others are coming out with slightly higher PPI displays on 10" tablets reminiscence of the iPhone 3G compared to other high-end smartphones and on 7" tablets and especially eReaders reminiscence of the iPhone 3GS compared to other high-end smartphones*the PPI is even higher with much crisper reading which I think Apple want to focus on, especially with textbook, magazines and newspapers where HiDPI is greatly appreciated.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply
post #23 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post

I don't recall Gruber ever backing the 2011 iPad 3 release rumor; in fact I remember him being very much opposed to it.

You obviously remember wrong, because not only did he back it, but he was one of the geniuses who started the whole rumor. How can he be making fun of any iPad 4 rumor when he was basically saying the exact same thing last year?

We don't have an official announcement of the iPad 2 yet, but Daring Fireball's John Gruber is already speculating that the iPad 3 -- what he says will be a competitor to the just-announced HP TouchPad -- will be ready by fall.

"If my theory is right, they're [HP] not only going to be months behind the iPad 2, but if they slip until late summer, they might bump up against the release of the iPad 3," Gruber speculated on Wednesday.


http://www.tuaw.com/2011/02/10/grube...ing-this-fall/
post #24 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

You obviously remember wrong, because not only did he back it, but he was one of the geniuses who started the whole rumor. How can he be making fun of any iPad 4 rumor when he was basically saying the exact same thing last year?

We don't have an official announcement of the iPad 2 yet, but Daring Fireball's John Gruber is already speculating that the iPad 3 -- what he says will be a competitor to the just-announced HP TouchPad -- will be ready by fall.

"If my theory is right, they're [HP] not only going to be months behind the iPad 2, but if they slip until late summer, they might bump up against the release of the iPad 3," Gruber speculated on Wednesday.


http://www.tuaw.com/2011/02/10/grube...ing-this-fall/

Huh, yup I was definitely remembering wrong!
post #25 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post

Huh, yup I was definitely remembering wrong!

No biggie, we all forget things sometimes.

The reason I remember it, is because when I read that rumor back then, it was the first time that I'd ever heard of that guy and I was shocked at how many sites were quoting such a retarded and ignorant prediction, so the name stuck in my head.
post #26 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post

Huh, yup I was definitely remembering wrong!

I had thought what you thought. Likely assuming that Gruber, who is usually making rational remarks, wouldn't have stated such an outlandish and foolish comment.

I have to wonder if his "source(s)" only got part of it right as the rumour for the HiDPI iPad display indicate they started ramping up production of the displays in the Fall.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply
post #27 of 72
http://favstar.fm/users/The_Smoking_...tus/3901093613

To gruber -
Definition: to make incorrect predictions with great confidence: Dude, you really grubered that one, didn't you?
melior diabolus quem scies
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melior diabolus quem scies
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post #28 of 72
Someone thinks that ...

J.
post #29 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post

Hmm. This makes me think I was right to believe there'd be a $200 difference between the carry-over iPad 2 and iPad 3, but wrong that the iPad 3 would still start at $499. Based on Gruber's comment, I'm now thinking that the line-up will start like this:

iPad 2 16GB/WiFi (dual-core A5, 1024x768 display)i: $399
iPad 3 32GB/WiFi (quad-core A6, 2048x1536 display): $599


I don't recall Gruber ever backing the 2011 iPad 3 release rumor; in fact I remember him being very much opposed to it.

The current iPad with 32GB in base form retails for $599 so I think you underestimate just how much a high-rez screen at that size will add to the price.

I think what is possible is that Apple will keep the current pricing for the base model but with the difference that all iPads will come with 3G (or whatever) connectivity. So you'd have a $499 (US) 16GB iPad with wi-fi+3G and then you'd have the step-up version that would come in at around $229 more but for 32GB and of course the hi-rez screen. This would not constitute a significant price increase in that the current 32GB model with 3G retails in the US for $729, as would the new high-rez version. Apple has done this sort of thing before.

It would be interesting to find out what percentage of iPads are sold with 3G.
post #30 of 72
DaringFireballInsider! reporting on all the latest Daring Fireball news...

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

John C. Dvorak, 2007
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post #31 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carmissimo View Post

It would be interesting to find out what percentage of iPads are sold with 3G.

Back in June of this year, Jeffries claimed 66%.
http://articles.businessinsider.com/...ds-apple-execs
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post #32 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Radjin View Post

As long as it will slip into my pocket and not break when I sit I am happy. My Brother's Galaxy S broke on his second time of sitting, but the damn thing is way to big and too tight in the pocket. Yes, we are a family divided. LOL

Anyone who puts a smartphone into a rear trouser pocket deserves that to happen to them. It simply wouldn't cross my mind. Maybe he's a country boy and thus doesn't have the natural suspicion that city folk have about putting valuables in rear pockets on busy city streets.
post #33 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

You don't need any connections or contacts at Apple to guess that the next iPad will arrive about a year after the last one or to predict that the resolution will increase. You could also extrapolate that it will have probably have better cameras, Siri, faster CPU and GPU as well. duh...

As to his last prediction, I would be shocked if the next iPhone doesn't have larger than a 3.5" screen. No, Apple won't make a 4.65" monstrosity, but certainly something in the 3.8" to 4.1" range seems not only plausible but very likely.

Why? Why would Apple increase its display by 0.3"?
post #34 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Why? Why would Apple increase its display by 0.3"?

You're talking about a diagonal resulting in a height, width and area change. While I don't think 0.3" would happen I can see 0.5" or 0.6" increase.

3.5" 3:2 = 5.65" sq (1.94" x 2.91")
3.8" 3:2 = 6.66" sq (2.11" x 3.16")
4.0" 3:2 = 7.38" sq (2.22" x 3.33")
4.1" 3:2 = 7.76" sq (2.27" x 3.41")

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply
post #35 of 72
The title is awfully amusing when it comes to the phrase "completely accurate," seeing the content of this article is far from it.

I've long complained about the bad spelling on AppleInsider, and it's clear to me that I am one of the few who is voicing it, as evidenced by the fact these foolish misspellings continue. We don't live in the 1970's anymore, when we didn't have spelling checkers, more less PCs. Even so, we did have paper dictionaries back then, and educated people used them. But with the convenience of digital spell checking today, there are no more excuses NOT to use proper spelling. Or has the American public school system failed so badly for the majority of readers here that no one even notices it or cares anymore?

"big expensive" in the article should read "bit expensive."

Shame on everyone associated with the article for allowing the bad English to continue. I long for the day that AppleInsider spelling and punctuation is "completely accurate."
post #36 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Radjin View Post

As long as it will slip into my pocket and not break when I sit I am happy. My Brother's Galaxy S broke on his second time of sitting, but the damn thing is way to big and too tight in the pocket. Yes, we are a family divided. LOL

The family is divided and so is the Android!
post #37 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

The iPad 4 rumor in 2012 makes as much sense as Gruber's iPad 3 prediction, which was supposed to happen in the fall of 2011. Both predictions and rumors were and are equally retarded.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

You're talking about a diagonal resulting in a height, width and area change. While I don't think 0.3" would happen I can see 0.5" or 0.6" increase.

3.5" 3:2 = 5.65" sq (1.94" x 2.91")
3.8" 3:2 = 6.66" sq (2.11" x 3.16")
4.0" 3:2 = 7.38" sq (2.22" x 3.33")
4.1" 3:2 = 7.76" sq (2.27" x 3.41")


I understand the measurement refers to the diagonal. I'm lazier than you and didn't bother working out the implied increments in length and width. But from what an old Egyptian math dude taught us, it was safe to assume that 0.3" increase in the diagonal would result in a smaller change in L and W. So 0.3" makes no sense.

As for 0.5" - i.e. 4.0" diagonal ... I still see it as a slightly better than marginal increase in screen size. But, as described here - http://www.ankleskater.com/pagemaker...20110708203600, Apple might do this without increasing the physical width of the phone (i.e. using the previously much-rumored edge-to-edge display). On the other hand, they lose the Retina Display. It seems non-Applesque to introduce an iPad with a display with a higher pixel density and yet decrease the same feature on the iPhone.

These are the dilemmas that keep Apple executives up at night, not to mention Apple rumor mongers.
post #38 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

As for the next iPhone, Gruber believes it will be a completely redesigned model that will arrive in late 2012, like the iPhone 4S. He doesn't expect that the new iPhone will have a larger display, but he does see Apple including an even better camera than is in the iPhone 4S.

I like Gruber. He is right more than wrong. He also will admit when he was wrong, which I predict will be the case regarding the iPhone's current screen size. I don't necessarily see Apple upping the overall footprint of the phone, but it can do things like remove the home button to make room for the larger screen (or relocate it to the sides).

Apple's phone fits nicely in one's hands, but the larger screen phones are extremely attractive especially with men. Apple can have both. Moreover, historically speaking many Apple rumors such as larger screen size take root a year or two before they actually bear fruition. The illuminated key boards is one example. There were rumors reported about that at least a year and half before it came to life. I remember because I waited and each update I was disappointed. Product development takes time. The same was true regarding the Mac Mini. Rumors started appearing at least a year a head of time.
post #39 of 72
Wait what. Gruber made it very clear in his 2011 post that the notion of a September iPad update was his guess and gut instinct - not something he had inside knowledge about. There’s a big difference between him clearly saying that and confirming what he’s heard from sources inside Apple.
post #40 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Radjin View Post

As long as it will slip into my pocket and not break when I sit I am happy. My Brother's Galaxy S broke on his second time of sitting, but the damn thing is way to big and too tight in the pocket. Yes, we are a family divided. LOL

I see that being a real problem for people who keep phones in their front pocket. The iPhone is already tight in my pocket. Increased size would increase the pressure on the phone, potentially cracking the phone in half. This is even more so for a phone that both the front and back is glass.
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