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Rumored March launch of high-res 'iPad 3' portrayed as 'completely accurate'

post #1 of 76
1/6/12 at 12:55pm
Thread Starter 
Rumors of a March launch for Apple's third-generation iPad with a high-resolution Retina Display have been deemed "completely accurate," though a claim that Apple will launch an "iPad 4" this October was written off as "completely made-up nonsense."

John Gruber of Daring Fireball issued a response on Friday to a new report from DigiTimes that gained attention earlier in the day. That report from the Taiwan-based publication said that Apple will ship a third-generation iPad in March with a high-definition display.

"Wait a minute. What's going on here?" Gruber responded sarcastically. "A DigiTimes report about Apple and the iPad that's completely accurate? No completely made-up nonsense? Is something wrong with me?"

He then went on to quote the portion of the article that said an "iPad 4" with "killer applications" will arrive in October. To that he responded, "OK, phew, what a relief."

Though the post was tongue-in-cheek, Gruber seemingly does use it to confirm a March launch of the next iPad, consistent with the timeframe of the the iPad 2 launch in 2011. He has also said on previous occasions that he believes the next iPad will sport a high-resolution Retina Display. Gruber is well-connected and has a reliable track record on Apple predictions.

Separately, Gruber took a few guesses at what Apple might do in 2012 for Macworld. There he suggested that Apple's Retina Display branding would only apply to new high-end models.



"I think Apple will continue selling the existing iPad 2 alongside the new ones, or introduce a new lower-end model that still sports today's 1024-by 768-pixel screen, simply because I think the retina-display iPad will be a bit expensive," he said. "I think the new iPad models will use the same screen size as today's -- no 7-inch model."

As for the next iPhone, Gruber believes it will be a completely redesigned model that will arrive in late 2012, like the iPhone 4S. He doesn't expect that the new iPhone will have a larger display, but he does see Apple including an even better camera than is in the iPhone 4S.
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post #2 of 76
1/6/12 at 1:06pm
You don't need any connections or contacts at Apple to guess that the next iPad will arrive about a year after the last one or to predict that the resolution will increase. You could also extrapolate that it will have probably have better cameras, Siri, faster CPU and GPU as well. duh...

As to his last prediction, I would be shocked if the next iPhone doesn't have larger than a 3.5" screen. No, Apple won't make a 4.65" monstrosity, but certainly something in the 3.8" to 4.1" range seems not only plausible but very likely.
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post #3 of 76
1/6/12 at 1:09pm
These analysts have completely no idea.
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post #4 of 76
1/6/12 at 1:11pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

You don't need any connections to guess that the next iPad will arrive about a year after the last one or to see that the resolution will increase. You could also extrapolate that it will have better cameras, CPU and GPU as well. duh...

As to his last prediction, I would be shocked if the next iPhone doesn't have larger than a 3.5" screen. No, Apple won't make a 4.65" monstrosity, but certainly something in the 3.8" to 4.1" range seems not only plausible but very likely.

As long as it will slip into my pocket and not break when I sit I am happy. My Brother's Galaxy S broke on his second time of sitting, but the damn thing is way to big and too tight in the pocket. Yes, we are a family divided. LOL
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post #5 of 76
1/6/12 at 1:11pm
When even the analysts are making fun of analysts, you know something's wrong.
PhilBoogie
That's Google alright. For a stupid company they sure do dumb things.
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PhilBoogie
That's Google alright. For a stupid company they sure do dumb things.
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post #6 of 76
1/6/12 at 1:19pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Radjin View Post

As long as it will slip into my pocket and not break when I sit I am happy. My Brother's Galaxy S broke on his second time of sitting, but the damn thing is way to big and too tight in the pocket. Yes, we are a family divided. LOL

Tell him the 80's are over and to stop wearing skin tight jeans.

Personally I would love a 4.6" iPhone and don't find them too big at all. I know I might be in the minority on this forum, but my best friend has the Galaxy SII Epic Touch with a 4.65" screen and it fits in my pocket fine. Not really that much bigger than my iPhone. But Apple is not stupid and realize that 3.5" seemed huge 5 years ago but now it might be time to make the screen a tad larger.
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post #7 of 76
1/6/12 at 1:24pm
Wait.. Didn't Gruber said the exact same thing last year? (iPad in March and iPad Pro in Oct).

I think he just realized how silly that sounded. The truth is Apple will only release one major iPhone update and one major iPad update every year.
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post #8 of 76
1/6/12 at 1:25pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

Personally I would love a 4.6" iPhone and don't find them too big at all.

I ask because they don't let us actually use them in the stores, but is it even possible to use a 'phone' like that with one hand?

Quote:
But Apple is not stupid and realize that 3.5" seemed huge 5 years ago but now it might be time to make the screen a tad larger.

Which is why they had 3G on the first iPhone and added LTE the second other companies started including it.
PhilBoogie
That's Google alright. For a stupid company they sure do dumb things.
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PhilBoogie
That's Google alright. For a stupid company they sure do dumb things.
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post #9 of 76
1/6/12 at 1:29pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

As to his last prediction, I would be shocked if the next iPhone doesn't have larger than a 3.5" screen. No, Apple won't make a 4.65" monstrosity, but certainly something in the 3.8" to 4.1" range seems not only plausible but very likely.

I like how a mere half-inch separates reasonable from "monstrosity."
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post #10 of 76
1/6/12 at 1:31pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

Personally I would love a 4.6" iPhone and don't find them too big at all. I know I might be in the minority on this forum, but my best friend has the Galaxy SII Epic Touch with a 4.65" screen and it fits in my pocket fine. Not really that much bigger than my iPhone. But Apple is not stupid and realize that 3.5" seemed huge 5 years ago but now it might be time to make the screen a tad larger.

You've ignored the different aspect ratios being used. A 4.6" iPhone would be considerably wider than a 4.65" Galaxy which is already too large for the average to use in one hand using a standard thumb radius.

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post #11 of 76
1/6/12 at 1:33pm
There won't be an iPad 4 released this year. Apple has no need to release another major version that soon. They could release tweaks later (e.g. one with LTE support inside) but that does not qualify for a major revision number on its own.
Tory Hagen
Break the Wedge!
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Tory Hagen
Break the Wedge!
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post #12 of 76
1/6/12 at 1:34pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by redbarchetta View Post

I like how a mere half-inch separates reasonable from "monstrosity."

For a phone, it quite easily can.
PhilBoogie
That's Google alright. For a stupid company they sure do dumb things.
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PhilBoogie
That's Google alright. For a stupid company they sure do dumb things.
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post #13 of 76
1/6/12 at 1:38pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by redbarchetta View Post

I like how a mere half-inch separates reasonable from "monstrosity."

Are you serious??
a 1/2 inch is extremely significant in the palm of a hand.
We're talking about a cell phone; not a building.
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post #14 of 76
1/6/12 at 1:45pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

These analysts have completely no idea.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

When even the analysts are making fun of analysts, you know something's wrong.

Gruber isn't an analyst, people. He's a blogger.
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post #15 of 76
1/6/12 at 1:45pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by redbarchetta View Post

I like how a mere half-inch separates reasonable from "monstrosity."

I said that very tongue in cheek since a lot of people here have used that term. As I said, I would love a larger screen. I know Apple doesn't blindly copy or follow trends, but I think that is a natural progression. I didn't really have any problems using the SII epic touch with one hand and I have pretty average sized hands. I had an Evo before which is slightly smaller with 4.3" but I really miss the screen size. That really is the only thing I really miss now that I have the iPhone 4S.

We are a long ways off from from the next iPhone though so no need to even worry about it for the time being.
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post #16 of 76
1/6/12 at 1:45pm
for the statistical majority of people: if you hold the iPhone in the palm of your hand you can comfortably reach the opposite corner of the touchscreen with your thumb. this is HUGE from a useability standpoint. try clicking a button in that corner on a 4.6" screen - you'll have to reposition the phone in your hand. This FORCED change in how you have to hold the device in order to operate it is incredibly subtle to some, but to Apple designers it's a major nuisance and a design failure.
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post #17 of 76
1/6/12 at 1:48pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

...certainly something in the 3.8" to 4.1" range seems not only plausible but very likely.

"Plausible" how? How will apps scale to a larger screen without needing to be re-written?

"Likely" how? Likely as in, they've refused to make a larger iPhone in 5 years, with absolutely no detrimental effect on sales? So now all of a sudden they're gonna make it bigger?
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post #18 of 76
1/6/12 at 1:49pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by NasserAE View Post

Wait.. Didn't Gruber said the exact same thing last year? (iPad in March and iPad Pro in Oct).

I think he just realized how silly that sounded. The truth is Apple will only release one major iPhone update and one major iPad update every year.

Totally agree. Apple realizes they only have to release what they absolutely have to. They are already so far ahead of the competition as it is now. The realize they should milk each product as much as they can to create the greatest return on their investment.

Also, they need not counter the Kindle except by lowering the price of the existing iPad 2 when the iPad 3 comes out. And, that's about as far as they'll go in terms of trying to compete with the Kindle. Fact is they realize they don't have to own the entire market nor do they want to if it means compromising on their position in the marketplace.

As for the iPhone, it is clear how the phone could be improved (better cameras, thinner, LTE, NFC, etc). Whether they do or not depends on what they feel they can implement the way they want to (which is why LTE has not been implemented yet) and what they need to do to keep their phones selling like crazy (but not necessarily keeping their phones competitive in all features just for the sake of staying competitive).

As for a larger screen, one will only see this within the confines of the existing form-fractor of the phone. The beauty of the iPhone is that you can touch all areas of the screen with the fingers of the hand you are holding it in. Steve Jobs was adamant about this being the case and it makes so much sense. This means edge to edge and perhaps to incorporate a toch sensitive home key is the largest screen you are going to see. But, this may not even happen as it will require developers to create different versions of their software. So, you can be sure Apple will think long and hard about this before they implement it.

Apple is not stupid and nothing they do is a knee-jerk reaction.
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post #19 of 76
1/6/12 at 1:49pm
The iPad 4 rumor in 2012 makes as much sense as Gruber's iPad 3 prediction, which was supposed to happen in the fall of 2011. Both predictions and rumors were and are equally retarded.
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post #20 of 76
1/6/12 at 1:50pm
I still put no stock in the Retina display on iPad3. Makes no sense from a manufacturing or competitive standpoint.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #21 of 76
1/6/12 at 1:55pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by desarc View Post

for the statistical majority of people: if you hold the iPhone in the palm of your hand you can comfortably reach the opposite corner of the touchscreen with your thumb. this is HUGE from a useability standpoint. try clicking a button in that corner on a 4.6" screen - you'll have to reposition the phone in your hand. This FORCED change in how you have to hold the device in order to operate it is incredibly subtle to some, but to Apple designers it's a major nuisance and a design failure.

Maybe so but do people hold the phone in their actual palm? I am right handed but actually find that holding the phone in my left hand is more comfortable and the phone rests more on my fingers than in my palm because it is more comfortable for me at least. I just did a test and my thumb extended about a half an inch beyond the top of the phone and on the sides. I do not have large hands either. In any case I used a 4.3" Evo and already know it was no harder to use one handed than an iPhone and know plenty of women petite in stature that also seem to manage quite well.
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post #22 of 76
1/6/12 at 2:10pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

I still put no stock in the Retina display on iPad3. Makes no sense from a manufacturing or competitive standpoint.

"Makes no sense from a manufacturing or competitive standpoint."

Why not? It definitely became a competitive standpoint when the iPhone 4 was introduced. Adding a 2048x1536 resolution screen would definitely making reading and using Safari so much better plus the added benefit of improving graphics in games.
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post #23 of 76
1/6/12 at 2:10pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleStud View Post

"Plausible" how? How will apps scale to a larger screen without needing to be re-written?

"Likely" how? Likely as in, they've refused to make a larger iPhone in 5 years, with absolutely no detrimental effect on sales? So now all of a sudden they're gonna make it bigger?

The way I see it as plausible is 3 fold.

1) Scaling to around 4" while lessening the side border and/or thinning the device could allow for the same or even better range with your thumb when one handed.

2) Apple did not release a new iPod Touch this past Autumn. While the Autumn release for the iPod is typical Apple has never released the iPod Touch alongside the new iPhone which tells me the G5 iPod Touch will come early this year, perhaps demoed with the next iPad. This would be the perfect opportunity for Apple to grow the iPod brand by offering a larger size in the ≈4"( and, perhaps, ≈7") size.

3) Still maintaining the 960x640 resolution. With games items would simply be a bit larger and for detailed apps elements would be larger but not annoyingly so even though not ideal. While iOS would have been adjusted for the change they could release an updated version of Xcode that day and give developers about 6 months to ready their wares for an impending iPhone of the same dimensions. The difference in PPI still falls within Retina Display for someone with 20/20 vision from 12" away. Since this would be a PMP release and not a smartphone the "detrimental effect" is severely diminished.

This is not to say this is a prediction, just a scenario that would facilitate Apple being able to move the iPhone into a larger default display with minimal drawback.

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post #24 of 76
1/6/12 at 2:15pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by John Gruber

Hardware: New iPads early in 2012, including high-end models with double-resolution retina displays. I think Apple will continue selling the existing iPad 2 alongside the new ones, or introduce a new lower-end model that still sports today’s 1024- by 768-pixel screen, simply because I think the retina-display iPad will be a bit expensive. I think the new iPads models will use the same screen size as today’s—no 7-inch model.

Hmm. This makes me think I was right to believe there'd be a $200 difference between the carry-over iPad 2 and iPad 3, but wrong that the iPad 3 would still start at $499. Based on Gruber's comment, I'm now thinking that the line-up will start like this:

iPad 2 16GB/WiFi (dual-core A5, 1024x768 display)i: $399
iPad 3 32GB/WiFi (quad-core A6, 2048x1536 display): $599

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

The iPad 4 rumor in 2012 makes as much sense as Gruber's iPad 3 prediction, which was supposed to happen in the fall of 2011. Both predictions and rumors were and are equally retarded.

I don't recall Gruber ever backing the 2011 iPad 3 release rumor; in fact I remember him being very much opposed to it.
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post #25 of 76
1/6/12 at 2:20pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

I still put no stock in the Retina display on iPad3. Makes no sense from a manufacturing or competitive standpoint.

thats a certainty, by now.
I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
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post #26 of 76
1/6/12 at 2:21pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

I still put no stock in the Retina display on iPad3. Makes no sense from a manufacturing or competitive standpoint.

I put plenty of stock in Retina Display on the iPad, my only concern is that the technology to support it may be not be ideal for a 2012 release. Cost, display thickness, backlight brightness, power usage, and GPU performance are my main concerns.

As tru_canuk stated the iPhone 4's display was a competitive move. Right now the iPad's display isn't pretty good others are coming out with slightly higher PPI displays on 10" tablets reminiscence of the iPhone 3G compared to other high-end smartphones and on 7" tablets and especially eReaders reminiscence of the iPhone 3GS compared to other high-end smartphones*the PPI is even higher with much crisper reading which I think Apple want to focus on, especially with textbook, magazines and newspapers where HiDPI is greatly appreciated.

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post #27 of 76
1/6/12 at 2:42pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post

I don't recall Gruber ever backing the 2011 iPad 3 release rumor; in fact I remember him being very much opposed to it.

You obviously remember wrong, because not only did he back it, but he was one of the geniuses who started the whole rumor. How can he be making fun of any iPad 4 rumor when he was basically saying the exact same thing last year?

We don't have an official announcement of the iPad 2 yet, but Daring Fireball's John Gruber is already speculating that the iPad 3 -- what he says will be a competitor to the just-announced HP TouchPad -- will be ready by fall.

"If my theory is right, they're [HP] not only going to be months behind the iPad 2, but if they slip until late summer, they might bump up against the release of the iPad 3," Gruber speculated on Wednesday.


http://www.tuaw.com/2011/02/10/grube...ing-this-fall/
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post #28 of 76
1/6/12 at 2:50pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

You obviously remember wrong, because not only did he back it, but he was one of the geniuses who started the whole rumor. How can he be making fun of any iPad 4 rumor when he was basically saying the exact same thing last year?

We don't have an official announcement of the iPad 2 yet, but Daring Fireball's John Gruber is already speculating that the iPad 3 -- what he says will be a competitor to the just-announced HP TouchPad -- will be ready by fall.

"If my theory is right, they're [HP] not only going to be months behind the iPad 2, but if they slip until late summer, they might bump up against the release of the iPad 3," Gruber speculated on Wednesday.


http://www.tuaw.com/2011/02/10/grube...ing-this-fall/

Huh, yup I was definitely remembering wrong!
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post #29 of 76
1/6/12 at 2:57pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post

Huh, yup I was definitely remembering wrong!

No biggie, we all forget things sometimes.

The reason I remember it, is because when I read that rumor back then, it was the first time that I'd ever heard of that guy and I was shocked at how many sites were quoting such a retarded and ignorant prediction, so the name stuck in my head.
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post #30 of 76
1/6/12 at 3:00pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post

Huh, yup I was definitely remembering wrong!

I had thought what you thought. Likely assuming that Gruber, who is usually making rational remarks, wouldn't have stated such an outlandish and foolish comment.

I have to wonder if his "source(s)" only got part of it right as the rumour for the HiDPI iPad display indicate they started ramping up production of the displays in the Fall.

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post #31 of 76
1/6/12 at 3:03pm
http://favstar.fm/users/The_Smoking_...tus/3901093613

To gruber -
Definition: to make incorrect predictions with great confidence: Dude, you really grubered that one, didn't you?

melior diabolus quem scies

"No theatrics and no more personal attacks, just stick to the logic and tell me why I don't have any argument ~ Jragosta/2012

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melior diabolus quem scies

"No theatrics and no more personal attacks, just stick to the logic and tell me why I don't have any argument ~ Jragosta/2012

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post #32 of 76
1/6/12 at 3:10pm
Someone thinks that ...

J.
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post #33 of 76
1/6/12 at 3:13pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cory Bauer View Post

Hmm. This makes me think I was right to believe there'd be a $200 difference between the carry-over iPad 2 and iPad 3, but wrong that the iPad 3 would still start at $499. Based on Gruber's comment, I'm now thinking that the line-up will start like this:

iPad 2 16GB/WiFi (dual-core A5, 1024x768 display)i: $399
iPad 3 32GB/WiFi (quad-core A6, 2048x1536 display): $599


I don't recall Gruber ever backing the 2011 iPad 3 release rumor; in fact I remember him being very much opposed to it.

The current iPad with 32GB in base form retails for $599 so I think you underestimate just how much a high-rez screen at that size will add to the price.

I think what is possible is that Apple will keep the current pricing for the base model but with the difference that all iPads will come with 3G (or whatever) connectivity. So you'd have a $499 (US) 16GB iPad with wi-fi+3G and then you'd have the step-up version that would come in at around $229 more but for 32GB and of course the hi-rez screen. This would not constitute a significant price increase in that the current 32GB model with 3G retails in the US for $729, as would the new high-rez version. Apple has done this sort of thing before.

It would be interesting to find out what percentage of iPads are sold with 3G.
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post #34 of 76
1/6/12 at 3:17pm
DaringFireballInsider! reporting on all the latest Daring Fireball news...
"And just like that, everyone here realizes you're just another sweaty little Google licker with an axe to grind and no idea what he's talking about." --addabox
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"And just like that, everyone here realizes you're just another sweaty little Google licker with an axe to grind and no idea what he's talking about." --addabox
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post #35 of 76
1/6/12 at 3:19pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carmissimo View Post

It would be interesting to find out what percentage of iPads are sold with 3G.

Back in June of this year, Jeffries claimed 66%.
http://articles.businessinsider.com/...ds-apple-execs

melior diabolus quem scies

"No theatrics and no more personal attacks, just stick to the logic and tell me why I don't have any argument ~ Jragosta/2012

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melior diabolus quem scies

"No theatrics and no more personal attacks, just stick to the logic and tell me why I don't have any argument ~ Jragosta/2012

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post #36 of 76
1/6/12 at 3:55pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Radjin View Post

As long as it will slip into my pocket and not break when I sit I am happy. My Brother's Galaxy S broke on his second time of sitting, but the damn thing is way to big and too tight in the pocket. Yes, we are a family divided. LOL

Anyone who puts a smartphone into a rear trouser pocket deserves that to happen to them. It simply wouldn't cross my mind. Maybe he's a country boy and thus doesn't have the natural suspicion that city folk have about putting valuables in rear pockets on busy city streets.
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post #37 of 76
1/6/12 at 4:08pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by gwmac View Post

You don't need any connections or contacts at Apple to guess that the next iPad will arrive about a year after the last one or to predict that the resolution will increase. You could also extrapolate that it will have probably have better cameras, Siri, faster CPU and GPU as well. duh...

As to his last prediction, I would be shocked if the next iPhone doesn't have larger than a 3.5" screen. No, Apple won't make a 4.65" monstrosity, but certainly something in the 3.8" to 4.1" range seems not only plausible but very likely.

Why? Why would Apple increase its display by 0.3"?
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post #38 of 76
1/6/12 at 4:17pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

Why? Why would Apple increase its display by 0.3"?

You're talking about a diagonal resulting in a height, width and area change. While I don't think 0.3" would happen I can see 0.5" or 0.6" increase.

3.5" 3:2 = 5.65" sq (1.94" x 2.91")
3.8" 3:2 = 6.66" sq (2.11" x 3.16")
4.0" 3:2 = 7.38" sq (2.22" x 3.33")
4.1" 3:2 = 7.76" sq (2.27" x 3.41")

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post #39 of 76
1/6/12 at 4:19pm
The title is awfully amusing when it comes to the phrase "completely accurate," seeing the content of this article is far from it.

I've long complained about the bad spelling on AppleInsider, and it's clear to me that I am one of the few who is voicing it, as evidenced by the fact these foolish misspellings continue. We don't live in the 1970's anymore, when we didn't have spelling checkers, more less PCs. Even so, we did have paper dictionaries back then, and educated people used them. But with the convenience of digital spell checking today, there are no more excuses NOT to use proper spelling. Or has the American public school system failed so badly for the majority of readers here that no one even notices it or cares anymore?

"big expensive" in the article should read "bit expensive."

Shame on everyone associated with the article for allowing the bad English to continue. I long for the day that AppleInsider spelling and punctuation is "completely accurate."
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post #40 of 76
1/6/12 at 4:32pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Radjin View Post

As long as it will slip into my pocket and not break when I sit I am happy. My Brother's Galaxy S broke on his second time of sitting, but the damn thing is way to big and too tight in the pocket. Yes, we are a family divided. LOL

The family is divided and so is the Android!
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