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54% of future smartphone buyers say they'll choose Apple's iPhone

post #1 of 49
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A new survey has found Apple has "explosive momentum" at the beginning of 2012, with more than half of people who plan to buy a smartphone in the next 90 days choosing Apple's iPhone.

The latest data revealed on Monday by ChangeWave Research comes from a survey of 4,000 North American consumers. Among imminent smartphone buyers, 54 percent said they will get an iPhone.

Though that number is down 11 points from the 65 percent who said they planned to buy an iPhone just after the iPhone 4S launched, ChangeWave noted the numbers show Apple has held on to much of that launch momentum.

"Apple has never dominated smartphone planned buying to this extent more than two months after a major new release," the research firm said.

The poll, conducted in December, also reveals a strong showing for Samsung, which saw its purchase intent grow from 5 percent in the previous survey conducted in September to 13 percent in December. Samsung's surge puts it well ahead of Motorola's 7 percent, HTC with 3 percent, and Research in Motion with just 2 percent.




And as in previous surveys, the latest ChangeWave poll once again revealed that customer satisfaction with the iPhone handily trumps the competition. Among those surveyed, 75 percent said they are "very satisfied" with Apple's iPhone.

Samsung and HTC were in a dead heat for second place among customer satisfaction, with 47 percent of users of each company's devices saying they are "very satisfied." In fourth, 45 percent of Motorola customers were "very satisfied," followed by 31 percent for LG, 23 percent for Nokia, and 22 percent for RIM.




The survey shows little good news, if any, for RIM and its struggling BlackBerry lineup. While demand for the iPhone has grown and customer satisfaction has remained high, RIM hit new lows in the latest ChangeWave survey. Even the BlackBerry operating system could only muster a 22 percent satisfaction rating.

Among mobile operating systems, the poll found that Microsoft's new Windows Phone platform, which the company admits was a response to the success of the iPhone, ranks higher than Google's Android. The survey found 55 percent of Windows Phone users were "very satisfied," compared to 47 percent of Android users. But Microsoft's previous generation Windows Mobile operating system dragged down the company's overall score, as only 12 percent of Windows Mobile users said they were "very satisfied."
post #2 of 49
The iPad 3 and the iPhone 5(or whatever they call it) will send Apple's bank account North of 100 billion. I'm saving for the psp vita, the iPhone # and the iPad 3. Hell yeah!!!!
post #3 of 49
Or for a different view based on the same data.

Interest in iPhone drops 17% in 3 months, while the number of people planning on buying samsung has increased 160% in the same period.
post #4 of 49
Yeah to me it looks like a number of perspective buyers have basically switched from wanting an iPhone to wanting a Samsung (probably Android) phone. Although the number of people wanting an iPhone is still amazingly high, such a considerable decrease/increase should be well noted. Samsung is very quickly becoming synonymous with Android.
post #5 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrochester View Post

Yeah to me it looks like a number of perspective buyers have basically switched from wanting an iPhone to wanting a Samsung (probably Android) phone. Although the number of people wanting an iPhone is still amazingly high, such a considerable decrease/increase should be well noted. Samsung is very quickly becoming synomonous with Android.

I would also like to note that people who 'claim' they will buy a device has no direct relation to people who actually buy them.

For instance http://psvitaplanet.com/sonys-survey...l-buy-ps-vita/

Even higher than these numbers

Additionaly, these statistics do not show these people will 'choose' the iPhone, as there will be people who will buy for instance both an iPhone as well as a galaxy s2/note. Choosing implies something different....
post #6 of 49
What was the interest drop over the same period for past iPhone releases? Changewave says this is App,e hanging on to momentum, but the first commenters say bad news for Apple. Which commenters looked up that important past info? I bet changewave did...
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post #7 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by mausz View Post

I would also like to note that people who 'claim' they will buy a device has no direct relation to people who actually buy them.

For instance http://psvitaplanet.com/sonys-survey...l-buy-ps-vita/

Even higher than these numbers

Yeah it's typically the case that what people say they will buy is different to what they actually buy. But it's still a shift regardless.
post #8 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by shen View Post

What was the interest drop over the same period for past iPhone releases? Changewave says this is App,e hanging on to momentum, but the first commenters say bad news for Apple. Which commenters looked up that important past info? I bet changewave did...

I suspect that the September 2011 results were artificially high in expectation of the new iPhone. The December results might just be that stabilising.
post #9 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by mausz View Post

Or for a different view based on the same data.

Interest in iPhone drops 17% in 3 months, while the number of people planning on buying samsung has increased 160% in the same period.

Or alternatively, many of those intending to buy the 4S have now bought it, leading to a dip in those planning to buy. There are presumably dips and troughs in sales as new models of phones from the various manufacturers are released.

It would be much more interesting if sales figures for the same market were available to compare. If these data are representative then they should approximately equal the forward 90 day rolling average sales share. Since there is very likely to have been a spike in iPhone sales after the 4S was released, the numbers don't seem unreasonable.
post #10 of 49
Despite the "decline", iPhone demand is not going down if you exclude the pent-up demand. Although no solid previous data shown, the logic is pretty straight forward (emphasis mine):
Quote:
While down slightly from a September survey, iPhone demand remained unusually high in December, according to new ChangeWave Research poll data. Of people planning to buy a smartphone in the next 90 days, 54 percent in the most recent survey said they were aiming to get an iPhone. While the number is down from 65 percent in September, ChangeWave remarks that Apple has never held such solid control more than two months after a major product release; the iPhone 4S shipped in mid-October.

Read more: http://www.electronista.com/articles...#ixzz1iyP6w1Ud
post #11 of 49
Except that the current buying trends don't support any of these "future buying predictions". Apple is nowhere near even 50% of current smartphone purchases even considering just the US, it's strongest market.
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post #12 of 49
A percentage of them will buy Androids, because they will either get cheap at actual purchase time, or a Fandroid will convince them to. I know a handful of people who fall into one of the two categories. A number of them are females persuaded by their boyfriends/husbands.

They all regret not getting an iPhone.
post #13 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleZilla View Post

A percentage of them will buy Androids, because they will either get cheap at actual purchase time, or a Fandroid will convince them to. I know a handful of people who fall into one of the two categories. A number of them are females persuaded by their boyfriends/husbands.
They all regret not getting an iPhone.

I also know lots of people who got an android phone and absolutely love them. They also bought them for other reasons than the 2 you mentioned.
post #14 of 49
Two years from now I'm replacing my iPhone 4S with another iPhone

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post #15 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleZilla View Post

A percentage of them will buy Androids, because they will either get cheap at actual purchase time, or a Fandroid will convince them to. I know a handful of people who fall into one of the two categories. A number of them are females persuaded by their boyfriends/husbands.

They all regret not getting an iPhone.

I do think AppleZilla is right, the people who buy Apple products (including me) are low educated or female.

It's not about specs, it's not about the brand, it's about the status you get with an iPhone.
That's the reason I bought my iPhone.
post #16 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Pedro View Post

…low educated or female.

And I'm neither, so there goes your argument.

Quote:
it's about the status

For the first week, perhaps.

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post #17 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleZilla View Post

A percentage of them will buy Androids, because they will either get cheap at actual purchase time, or a Fandroid will convince them to. I know a handful of people who fall into one of the two categories. A number of them are females persuaded by their boyfriends/husbands.

They all regret not getting an iPhone.

Or they say they are going to buy an iPhone because that's what people talk about, but once they walk into the carrier's store or visit their web site and see all other choices they can't considered before that, and then they decide they want a bigger screen or something like that.

But contrary to your last statements, I have yet to meet an Android owner who regrets their choice. They usually have specific reasons why they chose Android, and it's never been about price. And the comment about females being pursuaded by their boyfriends/husbands to get Android is very curious since I think a higher percentage of female friends have Android vs the men, including the women's significant others who have iPhones. One reason: women often carry purses so it's easier to carry around a larger screened device. (I know one couple where the husband will ask his wife to carry his "small" iPhone in her purse when they are out together because he doesn't want to carry it in his pocket.)
post #18 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Except that the current buying trends don't support any of these "future buying predictions". Apple is nowhere near even 50% of current smartphone purchases even considering just the US, it's strongest market.

It's not about a direct correlation to buying habits. It's more about mindshare, and control thereof.

As long as Apple controls the mindshare, they're in a very good position.
post #19 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by mausz View Post

Or for a different view based on the same data.

Interest in iPhone drops 17% in 3 months, while the number of people planning on buying samsung has increased 160% in the same period.

Well, Apple has likely already sold about 25 million 4S's, so the number of people wanting to buy one soon has dropped, and Samsung has just come out with new models, so that number has grown. It's still a small number though.
post #20 of 49
Where do they find these future people?

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post #21 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrochester View Post

Yeah to me it looks like a number of perspective buyers have basically switched from wanting an iPhone to wanting a Samsung (probably Android) phone. Although the number of people wanting an iPhone is still amazingly high, such a considerable decrease/increase should be well noted. Samsung is very quickly becoming synonymous with Android.

Other Android manufacturers have to worry about Samsung more than Apple does. HTC in particular, from articles in the business sites, has problems.
post #22 of 49
My daughter has finally given up on non-iPhone options and will be getting one in a few months when her current contract is up.
post #23 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Pedro View Post

I do think AppleZilla is right, the people who buy Apple products (including me) are low educated or female.

It's not about specs, it's not about the brand, it's about the status you get with an iPhone.
That's the reason I bought my iPhone.

Keep getting paid to write tag lines. You'll do great in local politics where the true lowest common denominator voter resides.

The end-to-end quality of the product speaks for the interest and return interest.
post #24 of 49
21% is missing. What are they buying?
post #25 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by mausz View Post

Or for a different view based on the same data.

Interest in iPhone drops 17% in 3 months, while the number of people planning on buying samsung has increased 160% in the same period.

The 2 survery results leave large chunks unlisted. Below are the totals for the 2 surveys, leaving us 18-20% unknown each time.

Sep 2011 - Totals 80%
Dec 2011 - Totals 82%

Figuring Apple's portion based on the given totals:
65/80 = 81.25
54/82 = 65.85

Actual percentage drop:
18.95%

Count my wife and I as 2 of the people planning iPhones soon. Filing taxes at the end of the month and getting them. New iPads and MacBooks (Pro or Air, depending) this spring. I think the assumption of pent up demand for the next iPhone driving the September poll higher makes sense and the extra blurb about Apple never having this high a "I plan to buy" percentage 2 months after a new product launch speaks well of them.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

And I'm neither, so there goes your argument.

I think you missed the sarcasm involved in that post.
post #26 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don Pedro View Post

I do think AppleZilla is right, the people who buy Apple products (including me) are low educated or female.

It's not about specs, it's not about the brand, it's about the status you get with an iPhone.
That's the reason I bought my iPhone.


Talking about an invalid statement...high-end Apple products are being compared to the BMW of mobile phones/computers, and people who generally buy Apple not only wants quality but EXPECTS top-notch QUALITY with excellent resale value (and not just superficial status) which of course Apple delivers big-time!

Therefore, the typical profile of Apple users (target market) are not the low-educated, cheap, pizza-eating individuals, but most likely those that have discriminating tastes, and can afford expensive, yet QUALITY products--mostly in the middle, upper middle, highly educated and wealthy class of society!

PS

Of course I can't discount the fact that there are a sprinkling of low-educated and female Apple users just like YOU, who buy Apple for the perceived status lift they get...lol!
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post #27 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Where do they find these future people?

In Phone(y) 'BLaBLaLand', a few missed calls beyond the ''Bridge on the River K'why' ".
post #28 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrochester View Post

Yeah it's typically the case that what people say they will buy is different to what they actually buy. But it's still a shift regardless.

correct -- it's the change in a measure like this that matters more than the level.
post #29 of 49
IPhone Built for China Telecom Gains Regulator Approval

http://www.pcworld.com/article/24750..._approval.html

China Telecom and China Unicom together have about 320 million mobile subscribers

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post #30 of 49
What was left out of this article was the chart showing Apple interest over the time since the iPhone first came out. While these numbers bounce up and down, varying from highs and lows often relating to when new phones come out, and afterward, the trend is clearly up.

http://www.macrumors.com/2012/01/09/...-to-iphone-4s/

People who look at the numbers from just the two last quarters and gloating about the drop, are failing to see the reality.
post #31 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

What was left out of this article was the chart showing Apple interest over the time since the iPhone first came out. While these numbers bounce up and down, varying from highs and lows often relating to when new phones come out, and afterward, the trend is clearly up.

http://www.macrumors.com/2012/01/09/...-to-iphone-4s/

People who look at the numbers from just the two last quarters and gloating about the drop, are failing to see the reality.

Really the only thing that the numbers reflect is consumer awareness for lack of a better term. Obviously actual purchases don't follow the stated future purchasing preferences. Instead a report like this just indicates what has the consumer's attention at the moment. Samsung was barely on anyone's smartphone radar until recently, so they've done a fairly good job at garnering attention the past couple of months. More consumer's know who they are and some idea of what they offer compared to September. That won't necessarily equate to sales, but it's obviously good if people know who you are.
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post #32 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Where do they find these future people?

In the future. ChangeWave has a time machine

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post #33 of 49
This is also interesting, and shows that it's not so much Apple, but the other Android manufacturers who have to worry about Samsung.

http://www.mondaynote.com/2012/01/08/samsung-vs-google/

Will Android eventually become a Samsung exclusive to all intents and purposes? Could be!
post #34 of 49
post #35 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Really the only thing that the numbers reflect is consumer awareness for lack of a better term. Obviously actual purchases don't follow the stated future purchasing preferences. Instead a report like this just indicates what has the consumer's attention at the moment. Samsung was barely on anyone's smartphone radar until recently, so they've done a fairly good job at garnering attention the past couple of months. More consumer's know who they are and some idea of what they offer compared to September. That won't necessarily equate to sales, but it's obviously good if people know who you are.

What they do state is the purchasing trends. Please. app,e's sales have been sharply up over the years, and sales do follow this trend.

But, I do agree that ninterest, and intent to buy doesn't match the actual percentage. It's lower for all manufacturers. But, again, it's the trend that is correct. And the trend for Apple is up.
post #36 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

What they do state is the purchasing trends. Please. app,e's sales have been sharply up over the years, and sales do follow this trend.

I don't think they're indicating any purchasing trends are they? Only indicating what someone today thinks they might want for a smartphone sometime in the future, with no direct correlation to what they really do.

If there was a one-to-one relationship, Android-based smartphones couldn't logically be outselling the iPhone since I've never seen them as the preferred choice in any survey like this.
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post #37 of 49
Another interesting report of sales, or expected sales.

http://techcrunch.com/2012/01/09/ios...n-octnov-2011/
post #38 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I don't think they're indicating any purchasing trends are they? Only indicating what someone today thinks they might want for a smartphone sometime in the future, with no direct correlation to what they really do.

If there was a one-to-one relationship, Android-based smartphones couldn't logically be outselling the iPhone since I've never seen them as the preferred choice in any survey like this.

I know you can read these simple charts. We all can. The one I posted shows them from July 2007, when the first iPhone came out, until the present. That's been the trend.

So it obviously isn't "just" what people say for the future, as the future for all of those graph points are now in the past. As the iPhone has mirrored those trends, we can say that they do have meaning.

You might have noticed that I'm talking about the TRENDS not the actual percentages. My estimates overall are that the actual resulting percentages of sales are between 30-40% lower. But this is true for most all manufacturers as far as trends vs sales are concerned. None of the sales match the percentages, though the trends are pretty much correct. The actual percentage varies with the individual manufacturer.

But if you look at my last post, you can see that it's thought Apple did much better viv-a-vis Android this past quarter.
post #39 of 49
Ah, just to throw this in. We will never know Samsung's smartphone and tablet sales, as they stopped supplying them two quarter's ago, for "competitive purposes". That's usually a euphemism for: "We're not doing quite as well as we want you to think." so the 35 million number being bandied about is just an estimate from an analyst. From the estimates we see of Apple's sales, it may, or may not be accurate. So it could possibly be anywhere from, say, 25 million to 45 million. Play pin the tail on the number to find out.
post #40 of 49
Quote:
Originally Posted by mausz View Post

Or for a different view based on the same data.

Interest in iPhone drops 17% in 3 months, while the number of people planning on buying samsung has increased 160% in the same period.

That's because those who responded purchased their new iPhone 4s prior to the most recent survey! Get a grip! And of course, because they did so, one would temporarily lift in Samsung as they await the next Samsung model. This really isn't that complicated.
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