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Apple's iPhone 4S propels iOS smartphone market share to 43% in Oct., Nov. 2011

post #1 of 64
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The release of the iPhone 4S has driven significant growth for the iOS platform, with one analysis finding that Apple's share of U.S. smartphone sales grew from 26 percent in the third quarter of 2011 to 43 percent in October and November.

According to research firm The NPD Group's data, Android smartphone sales dropped off from 60 percent in the third quarter of 2011 to 47 percent during the two-month period, as noted by TechCrunch. Research in Motion continued its decline, falling from 8 percent to 6 percent during the same timeframe, while Windows Phone remained largely irrelevant with just a few percentage points of market share.

NPD characterized 2011 as the year the smartphone industry came down to a "two-horse race" between iOS and Android. A previous report from the firm had pegged combined iOS and Android smartphone market share in the U.S. at a crushing 82 percent during the third quarter of 2011.

With Apple and Google dominating the market, smartphone penetration continues to increase. According to the firm, smartphones comprised 67 percent of handset sales in October and November, compared to 18 percent for messaging devices and just 15 percent for basic phones.






As for individual phone models, Apple dominated the competition in the first two months of the holiday quarter by taking the top three spots for best-selling handsets. The iPhone 4S was the most popular, followed by the iPhone 4 and the iPhone 3GS. The Samsung Galaxy S 4G took fourth place, followed by the Samsung Galaxy S II. Devices by HTC, Motorola, LG and Samsung rounded out the rest of the top 10.




It's possible Apple will have caught up to Android even more when the month of December is included in market share calculations. Christmas Day iOS activations appear to have outnumbered Android activations by 1.6 million units, though those numbers include tablets and media players in addition to smartphones.

Google Android boss Andy Rubin revealed last month that Christmas Eve and Christmas Day activations totaled 3.7 million devices, while Flurry Analytics reported that 6.8 million new iOS and Android devices were activated on Christmas Day, implying 353 percent growth compared to earlier in the month.

Though Apple's older iPhone models have continued to sell well, pent up demand for the iPhone 4S is likely the largest growth factor for iOS in the smartphone market. After reaching a peak in the second quarter of calendar 2011, iPhone sales actually declined sequentially in the third quarter of the year as customers held off on purchasing new handsets in anticipation of a refresh.




Apple is widely expected to report soaring iPhone sales when it announces its December quarter results on Tuesday, Jan. 24. The consensus estimate among a poll of professional analysts stands at 29.74 million, while the average forecast among independent analysts and bloggers is 33.4 million units.

The iPhone's growth momentum could also carry into 2012, as a recent survey of North American consumers revealed that 54 percent plan on buying an iPhone.
post #2 of 64
Here, slappy, slappy...

...who's a good boy...

...roll over, play dead.
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post #3 of 64
Microsoft and RIM have become irrelevant fast. The numbers Apple pulled off are remarkable given the breadth of the Android handsets variations.

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post #4 of 64
It's an amazing smart Phone. So no wonder they are doing so well. But 17% up !!! Oh boy oh boy! That' more then I expected. I hope they keep a similar design for the next iteration. That's about when my contract has to be renewed. Else I may just upgrade from iP4 to iP4S which to my knowledge is already quite a jump.
post #5 of 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

Here, slappy, slappy...

...who's a good boy...

...roll over, play dead.

I don't think slappy (or is it slapppy?) is for real. He is just too good to be true.
post #6 of 64
I am surprised that android did so well. A lull in android sales was expected before the ICS devices hit the US. I thought this lull would be bigger than it appears to have been.


Maybe 4G has a lot to do with android performing this well with four 4G devices in top 10. Will be interesting to see what happens when iPhone releases a 4G device.
post #7 of 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nairb View Post

I am surprised that android did so well. A lull in android sales was expected before the ICS devices hit the US. I thought this lull would be bigger than it appears to have been.


Maybe 4G has a lot to do with android performing this well with four 4G devices in top 10. Will be interesting to see what happens when iPhone releases a 4G device.

With Siri and everything the iPhone has come a little closer to be an AI, but I think it still has a way to go before it can release a 4G device on it's own.
post #8 of 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

Here, slappy, slappy...

...who's a good boy...

...roll over, play dead.

Lol

SlapHappy's having a smoke
post #9 of 64
People who went the "cheap" Android route only to discover what a terrible UX it actually has (not to mention the fragmentation issue or being orphaned a few months later by their vendor as happened with the Moto Milestone which was in theory a hero Android device)... as those contracts run out you could see people seeing the advantages of the Apple eco-system.
post #10 of 64
Put in perspective, if Apple did sell 35M iPhones worldwide in the last quarter, it would be around 25% of the estimated total smartphone sales during that time period. That's an impressive percentage considering the numerous players.
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post #11 of 64
All done without Apple on T-Mobile.

This will be a key effort I imagine for 2012

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post #12 of 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rabbit_Coach View Post

I don't think slappy (or is it slapppy?) is for real. He is just too good to be true.

I believe he's a Poe and thus a troll. No Android sites collaborate with him. To claim Android has marketshare is one thing but to even say iOS is dead is borderline insane.
post #13 of 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by aknabi View Post

People who went the "cheap" Android route only to discover what a terrible UX it actually has (not to mention the fragmentation issue or being orphaned a few months later by their vendor as happened with the Moto Milestone which was in theory a hero Android device)... as those contracts run out you could see people seeing the advantages of the Apple eco-system.

FWIW with the exception of the LG (never heard of it) none of the android devices listed are cheap ones (well the s4g is old)
post #14 of 64
That first graph is just beautiful... I was hoping for that trend, but those numbers are simply amazing... Giddy up aapl.....
post #15 of 64
Amazing considering the number of devices running Android vs iOS. Even more amazing that a nearly 3 year old phone is beating out one of Samsung's flagship phones. I thought Galaxy with the bigger screen and 4G LTE was supposed to smoke iPhone?
post #16 of 64
Shareholder smiley time.
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post #17 of 64
A surge in sales around the release of the new iPhone is to be expected. What these sales numbers dont tells us.is how many are new activations. With the assumed loyalty of iPhone ownersthe 4s should have been the benefactor of a lot of 3gs ownersready for an update.
post #18 of 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrispoe View Post

A surge in sales around the release of the new iPhone is to be expected. What these sales numbers dont tells us.is how many are new activations. With the assumed loyalty of iPhone ownersthe 4s should have been the benefactor of a lot of 3gs ownersready for an update.

The number of updates vs new activations is irrelevant in a discussion of market share. Market share is simply the percentage of total units sold during a given time period (or, less frequently, the percentage of total dollars spent). From a market share perspective, it doesn't matter if they were new users or upgrades.

From an installed base perspective, of course, it matters - but that's not what's being discussed here.
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post #19 of 64
What do you guys think the Max penetration of smart phones will be in the US? I cant see it going over 80% any time soon. If so there's only 13% of market left for every one to fight over. Soon we will see over saturation and growth of over all US smart phone market will slow. I guess international markets (china, India) are were the action is going to be. Great to see apple getting into those markets, but since those are more price sensitive it might be a tough battle.
post #20 of 64
Of course there will be a slight uptick with a new model from Apple. A new iPhone released within that time frame will generate a perceived momentum with market share. Please remember that this uptick is in direct relation to a new product release. Mark my words. As 1st and 2nd quarter approaches, iOS share will quickly return to its proper levels, and will continue to drop year to year.
post #21 of 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrispoe View Post

A surge in sales around the release of the new iPhone is to be expected. What these sales numbers dont tells us.is how many are new activations. With the assumed loyalty of iPhone ownersthe 4s should have been the benefactor of a lot of 3gs ownersready for an update.

Correct. Nice to know that some can read these reports objectively.
post #22 of 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrispoe View Post
A surge in sales around the release of the new iPhone is to be expected. What these sales numbers dont tells us.is how many are new activations. With the assumed loyalty of iPhone ownersthe 4s should have been the benefactor of a lot of 3gs ownersready for an update.
Correct. Nice to know that some can read these reports objectively.
Quote:
Originally Posted by slapppy View Post

Correct. Nice to know that some can read these reports objectively.


Let me explain this so that a 5-year old can understand:

If there are 3 people, and 1 of the 3 is using apple's iphone, then iOS has 33.3% market share. If after some time that same person buys a different iphone, say upgrades to the 4S, and is still the only one person using iOS out of the 3, then iOS market share is 1/3 or STILL 33.3%. Now, if say that person upgrades AND another person decides to use iOS, now there are 2/3 or 66.6% iOS market share. Now, this next scenario is going to really blow your mind so you may want to sit down before you read it slapster, IF that one person who was using the iphone decides to switch (dont worry, after going to the dark side they will come back, they always do) and then 1 out of the other 2 people decides to switch to an iphone, that means we have two people switching and still 1 out of 3 people using iOS, or 33.3%. And finally since smart phone usage is always increasing we have new customers to the game so say this, that 1 person upgrades and 1 new person comes into the mix, and decides to use an iphone, now we have 2 out of 4, or 50% iOS market share. Let me conclude for you in case this is too much to handle: An INCREASE IN MARKET SHARE MEANS APPLE HAD TO HAVE AT LEAST ADDED NEW CUSTOMERS, upgraded existing customers would simply retain current market share numbers... but im thinking you must of known this already........
post #23 of 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by slapppy View Post

Of course there will be a slight uptick with a new model from Apple. A new iPhone released within that time frame will generate a perceived momentum with market share. Please remember that this uptick is in direct relation to a new product release. Mark my words. As 1st and 2nd quarter approaches, iOS share will quickly return to its proper levels, and will continue to drop year to year.

And didn't Android have some big launches in the quarter too? Apple released iPhone 4.1 and still completely dominated this quarter. Just wait until they release the REAL next gen iPhone next year. That's when Apple and Android will equalize.

And since it's just a matter of time before Apple is making $10+ on every Android device sold, it's a good time to be an Apple shareholder!

EDIT: It's actually perfect. What more could a company ask for than to maintain about 50% market share, and make a healthy profit off your competitor who controls the other 50%. Stay away from the the monopoly/ anti-trust allegations and rake in the cash. Also not to bad when your main competitor makes $0 off it's marketshare!
post #24 of 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by jhende7 View Post

Just wait until they release the REAL next gen iPhone next year.

I'd love to hear you tell us what you think isn't 'next gen' about the iPhone 4S.

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post #25 of 64
If only Steve was around to see this.

Apple's strategy keeps getting vindicated, over and over again, regardless of the sea of cynics and doubters. Everytime people proclaim the tide is turning, Apple becomes stronger than ever. The iPhone is singlehandedly holding off the entire gamut of phones from dozens and dozens of companies.
post #26 of 64
c'mon, everyone knows apple fanbois bought all 3 versions of the iphone. That's the only explanation.

/s

i wonder what the profit share is for the last quarter...
post #27 of 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

c'mon, everyone knows apple fanbois bought all 3 versions of the iphone. That's the only explanation.

I've not heard that one before.

That sounds way too good; don't let that spread around.

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post #28 of 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpy View Post

If only Steve was around to see this.

Apple's strategy keeps getting vindicated, over and over again, regardless of the sea of cynics and doubters. Everytime people proclaim the tide is turning, Apple becomes stronger than ever. The iPhone is singlehandedly holding off the entire gamut of phones from dozens and dozens of companies.

SJ just proved that the universal principle of "you REAP, what you SOW" is true...you sow EXCELLENCE and you will reap EXCELLENT results...SJ even at death, has proven his incredible wisdom--it is truly in his beloved Apple's DNA!

SJ you will forever be missed!
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post #29 of 64
I try not to take sides, since i just want what is best for me.

but this is huge!!!!! it's just in the US right? oh god.. what is going to happen when those million of middle class chinese can buy them??

if i was google i would heavily bet in europe, africa, india.

some folks are not getting it.. that market share with a 650dollars phone? also with the possibility of royalties against google? damn.. it's dangerous for the whole industry! we need the bad to admire and feed the good..

i always thought that apple would be with 8 to 10 % share when the smartphone market = handset market simply because they would still selling every phone they can and only a "portion" of the people that live on earth can afford them or the expensive data plans. then they would slowly grow, just like with the mac. i also expect the same with the iPad...

but this.... this is huge!!!!!!
post #30 of 64
Since happpy has finally decided to chime in, it's good to remember that any actual advantage that Apple has (remember, 26% to 43% is a "slight uptick"), will be dismissed out of hand, and that the eventual reign of Android will not be denied!

And please those who must respond to this poster, do not "respond" to the posting. It makes ignoring those entries less effective when we are forced to read the inevitable blather that attempts to pass itself off as insightful analysis. Much in the same way a dog in a petticoat might be passed off as the Queen of England, and equally effective IMO.

80-90% saturation would be outstanding for smartphones taking over the old feature phone category, which would also result in eventually redefining mobile telephony in the marketplace. Because if all mobile phones are smart, then that becomes the new baseline - right?

If that point has been reached here in the US, then it is now time to move into the market adjustment phase - where the players (both majority and minority) jockey for segment and the real competition begins. To date Android has largely been pulling in feature phone users after impacting RIM, Nokia and Microsoft. Asuuming these players remain viable competitors (not yet a given) then here is where the strength of the brand will come into play. Nokia may well give Microsoft the boost it needs to claim back 10-15% of the market, RIM has to move itself significantly forward to stop the bleeding and to again retain a solid 10-15% of the market alongside Nokrosoft/Mickia. That leaves the remaining 70-80% contested between iOS and Android.Which assumes however that Apple does nothing further to disrupt this market, and maintains continuity in delivery. Which is what they did for iPods up until the introduction of the iPhone and iPod Touch.
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post #31 of 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post

I try not to take sides, since i just want what is best for me.

but this is huge!!!!! it's just in the US right? oh god.. what is going to happen when those million of middle class chinese can buy them??

if i was google i would heavily bet in europe, africa, india.

some folks are not getting it.. that market share with a 650dollars phone? also with the possibility of royalties against google? damn.. it's dangerous for the whole industry! we need the bad to admire and feed the good..

i always thought that apple would be with 8 to 10 % share when the smartphone market = handset market simply because they would still selling every phone they can and only a "portion" of the people that live on earth can afford them or the expensive data plans. then they would slowly grow, just like with the mac. i also expect the same with the iPad...

but this.... this is huge!!!!!!

Few pay 650 for that phone. Don't be naive.
post #32 of 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrispoe View Post

A surge in sales around the release of the new iPhone is to be expected. What these sales numbers dont tells us.is how many are new activations. With the assumed loyalty of iPhone ownersthe 4s should have been the benefactor of a lot of 3gs ownersready for an update.

same can be said for Android devices. How many users like Android but was stuck on 2.1 and needed to upgrade.
post #33 of 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by AbsoluteDesignz View Post

Few pay 650 for that phone. Don't be naive.

You forgot that Apple's target market are those with discriminating tastes that CAN afford expensive BUT QUALITY products--most likely they own expensive cars like a Benz, Audi, BMW, etc. BUT even for those that can HARDLY afford Apple, once they own an Apple, that person finds himself NOT wanting to go back to lesser quality products!

iPhone actually IS a very good introduction to the much-vaunted Apple QUALITY of EXCELLENCE (insanely GREAT!) and once they TASTE Apple QUALITY through their iPhones and iPods, these people will NEVER go back to mediocre stuffs anymore--and that is where APPLE LOYALTY comes into play!

That's the reason why Apple can sell NOT only iPhones or iPods BUT CAN also sell iPads, iMacs to a person that just converted to Apple!

You will MOST likely hear an Android/PC user CONVERTING to Apple, BUT you will HARDLY hear an Apple user REGRESSING back to Windows/Android
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My job is NOT to be easy on people. My job is to take these great people we have and to push them and make them even BETTER.

--Steve Jobs on being a CEO
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My job is NOT to be easy on people. My job is to take these great people we have and to push them and make them even BETTER.

--Steve Jobs on being a CEO
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post #34 of 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by ko024 View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrispoe View Post

Let me explain this so that a 5-year old can understand:

If there are 3 people, and 1 of the 3 is using apple's iphone, then iOS has 33.3% market share. If after some time that same person buys a different iphone, say upgrades to the 4S, and is still the only one person using iOS out of the 3, then iOS market share is 1/3 or STILL 33.3%. Now, if say that person upgrades AND another person decides to use iOS, now there are 2/3 or 66.6% iOS market share. Now, this next scenario is going to really blow your mind so you may want to sit down before you read it slapster, IF that one person who was using the iphone decides to switch (dont worry, after going to the dark side they will come back, they always do) and then 1 out of the other 2 people decides to switch to an iphone, that means we have two people switching and still 1 out of 3 people using iOS, or 33.3%. And finally since smart phone usage is always increasing we have new customers to the game so say this, that 1 person upgrades and 1 new person comes into the mix, and decides to use an iphone, now we have 2 out of 4, or 50% iOS market share. Let me conclude for you in case this is too much to handle: An INCREASE IN MARKET SHARE MEANS APPLE HAD TO HAVE AT LEAST ADDED NEW CUSTOMERS, upgraded existing customers would simply retain current market share numbers... but im thinking you must of known this already........

Except – the graph is labeled "OS share of smartphone sales", presumably meaning that it only represents the ratio of sales during that period, not the overall market share. So unlike the total market share that you are referring to, it is possible that it could be changed by sales to existing iOS users.
post #35 of 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by slapppy View Post

Of course there will be a slight uptick with a new model from Apple. A new iPhone released within that time frame will generate a perceived momentum with market share. Please remember that this uptick is in direct relation to a new product release. Mark my words. As 1st and 2nd quarter approaches, iOS share will quickly return to its proper levels, and will continue to drop year to year.

the article is talking about the new SALE market share figure, not device number market share, per OS. per my understanding, SALE figure is: given a number of total smart phone new activations during holiday season as H, the share of the SALE is (X/H), X is the number of phones sold by a given OS brand.

android has had constant product release almost every month while apple only does 1 per year. so it is pretty good performance for apple during this quarter.

robin from google mentioned that 3.7m android were activated on xmas eve and day. one marketing research firm provided 6.8m activation during xmas day for both android and iphone, and iphone is outselling 1.6m on xmas day. so basically apple activated 4.2m on xmas day and android activated 1.1m on xmas eve and 2.6m on xmas day. it is unclear how many apple activated on xmas eve.

window phone is coming. of course, it will take some sales from apple. but android will have more challenges. at a given price and by the same phone vendor, android phone might be more expensive compared with window phone because of license fees.

so we will see how far every one can go at the end of 2012...
post #36 of 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by muppetry View Post

Except the graph is labeled "OS share of smartphone sales", presumably meaning that it only represents the ratio of sales during that period, not the overall market share. So unlike the total market share that you are referring to, it is possible that it could be changed by sales to existing iOS users.

Exactly.

I was under the impression that whenever there is a report about "market share" that they're referring to sales during a certain timeframe... and NOT the total market share.

We've all heard claims like this before... "Android has 30% tablet market share... iPad slips to 60%"

They're clearly referring to sales (or shipments) during that particular quarter.

If we're talking about the TOTAL market share of tablets... we know there are over 40 million iPads out in the world since April 2010. And we know damn well that 30% of the tablets out in the world are not Android tablets.

As for phones... according to this chart it appears that iPhone sales in the US have sharply increased over the last 2 months. It has nothing to do with the total market share of iPhones and Android devices.
post #37 of 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post

Exactly.

I was under the impression that whenever there is a report about "market share" that they're referring to sales during a certain timeframe... and NOT the total market share.

We've all heard claims like this before... "Android has 30% tablet market share... iPad slips to 60%"

They're clearly referring to sales (or shipments) during that particular quarter.

If we're talking about the TOTAL market share of tablets... we know there are over 40 million iPads out in the world since April 2010. And we know damn well that 30% of the tablets out in the world are not Android tablets.

As for phones... according to this chart it appears that iPhone sales in the US have sharply increased over the last 2 months. It has nothing to do with the total market share of iPhones and Android devices.

It has to be hard to track total market share - even if you know how many of each are sold, how do you know when a device stops being used?

Carriers could presumably supply that information, as they generally know what equipment the customers are using, but they don't all do that. Browsing and transaction data can be collected, but without any direct knowledge of the browsing/transacting habits of the owners of the various devices (which almost certainly differ as we have seen from iOS domination of those numbers), market share cannot be reliably inferred.

Otherwise these data always seem to be extracted from sales, and even those are questionable as not all manufacturers release numbers.
post #38 of 64
Prior to these numbers being released, message forums and tech blogs were recently filled with articles about Android almost hitting 50% market share and how it would clearly get there before iOS. Crazy how Apple has come up from second place and appears to be on track to claim that 50% before Android gets there.

And honestly, I don't really give a rip who gets there first or who sells more phones nor do I care to engage in dick-size wars about it. I just find it amazing how rapidly these things can change in technology almost overnight.


Quote:
Originally Posted by muppetry View Post

Except – the graph is labeled "OS share of smartphone sales", presumably meaning that it only represents the ratio of sales during that period, not the overall market share. So unlike the total market share that you are referring to, it is possible that it could be changed by sales to existing iOS users.

Sounds like you don't know the definition of market share. Nothing personal, but it sounds like you're using terms like "overall market share" in place of "customer base." Market share is the amount of a specific market a given company takes in a given time period. An overall market share (i.e., market share from the start of time to now) would be so broad as to be rendered meaningless.
post #39 of 64
Where are the "Apple don't care about market share" guys?
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post #40 of 64
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post

Exactly.

I was under the impression that whenever there is a report about "market share" that they're referring to sales during a certain timeframe... and NOT the total market share.

We've all heard claims like this before... "Android has 30% tablet market share... iPad slips to 60%"

They're clearly referring to sales (or shipments) during that particular quarter.

If we're talking about the TOTAL market share of tablets... we know there are over 40 million iPads out in the world since April 2010. And we know damn well that 30% of the tablets out in the world are not Android tablets.

As for phones... according to this chart it appears that iPhone sales in the US have sharply increased over the last 2 months. It has nothing to do with the total market share of iPhones and Android devices.

There is no "total market share." Market share is, by definition, the part of a given market a company takes in a specific time frame. Figuring total market share would be pointless. What would that show us? The term I suspect you're looking for is "customer base" which is the total number of customers a given company serves. That's not the same as market share.

In fact, a company can have a very low market share and very high customer base or vice-versa. I'd actually argue that in the case of Android and iOS. From what I've read, Android users appear to purchase new phones more often than iOS users. If the same people are buying phones more often, then that would create a high market share with a customer base that doesn't necessarily grow. It doesn't take a lot of imagination to figure out how that translates to misleading market share numbers.
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