or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › Strong sales of iPhone 4S a precursor to 'monster' launch of redesigned 'iPhone 5'
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Strong sales of iPhone 4S a precursor to 'monster' launch of redesigned 'iPhone 5'

post #1 of 241
Thread Starter 
With iPhone sales over the holiday quarter expected to exceed 30 million, despite the fact that the iPhone 4S features the same form factor as its predecessor, one analyst believes the launch of a completely redesigned next-generation iPhone later this year will be a "monster."

Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray sent a note to investors on Wednesday, in which he increased his projected iPhone sales for the just-concluded December quarter from 26 million to 30 million. He said that total remains conservative, as the latest domestic data from the NPD Group suggests sales could be as high as 34 million in the quarter.

But record setting iPhone sales aren't the biggest story for Apple, in Munster's eyes. Instead, he's looking toward the future, with a redesigned next-generation redesigned iPhone, which he believes is going to accelerate Apple's growth even further than the current iPhone 4S.

"If Apple sells 30 (million)-plus iPhones in Dec., with no new form factor, up from 17.1m in Sept., it would be evidence supporting our survey work indicating that 94% of iPhone users plan to upgrade to a new iPhone," Munster wrote. "This theme suggests iPhone 5, which we are expecting in Aug. with a new form factor, will be a monster upgrade."

Munster believes the iPhone will represent 48 percent of Apple's sales in the December quarter. Official earnings will be revealed by Apple after markets close on Tuesday, Jan. 24.

As for the iPad, Munster sees the touchscreen tablet taking up 21 percent of Apple's total sales, with 13.5 million units sold in the quarter. He said informal checks during the holiday shopping season showed iPad demand was up 68 percent year over year from similar checks performed in 2010. He believes Apple will launch a third-generation iPad in April.

Finally, Munster has forecast the Mac will account for 17 percent of Apple's sales in the December quarter. His estimates call for Apple to have sold 5.2 million units in the quarter, an increase of 25 percent year over year.




If his projections prove accurate, it would be a record quarter for all three of Apple's major product categories. Previous bests for the iPad and Mac came last quarter with sales of 11.2 million and 4.9 million, respectively, while the iPhone record was set in the June quarter with sales of 20.34 million handsets.

Piper Jaffray has maintained its "overweight" rating for AAPL stock, and reiterated that it is the firm's top pick for 2012 with a price target of $607. He believes Apple's revenue for the December quarter will be $40.19 billion, good for $10.50 earnings per share.
post #2 of 241


Yes, yes, redesign, yes, yes, 5" screen. Yes, yes, LTE. Yes, yes, wider, thinner, and with an aluminum back; let's get this all out of the way.

Gotta space these threads out, guys. We have until October until it happens…

Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

…AAPL stock… … [has] a price target of $607.

My target is $370 after the earnings call, but that's me.

Quote:
He believes Apple's revenue for the December quarter will be $40.19 billion, good for $10.50 earnings per share.

Oh, great. Now I have to assume it'll go to $350…
post #3 of 241
3.7" screen. Same resolution. Same basic physical width of device.

Happy shareholder : )
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
Reply
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
Reply
post #4 of 241
smack that: already got my 4S, so I'll let the rest of the world to wait&go for 5.
sent from my... internet browser of choice.
Reply
sent from my... internet browser of choice.
Reply
post #5 of 241
I'm really tired of the guys that write articles claiming that iPhone 4s is the same design as the 4. It is just plain ignorance folks and frankly Apple insider can do better. The phone has all of the following new: antenna, battery, processor, base band chips, GPS system, effectively all new electronics.

As to a flat panel, how much innovation does one expect there? A little bigger a little smaller, a little brighter or a little darker, all nice to contemplate but they are not something that is as compelling as a the other new capabilities.

As to iPhone 5 sorry guys but don't get wound up in the hype, it is a phone that sits in your pocket next to your best friend. Apple has already done the major moves to deliver innovation in this field, the rest is incremental improvements. And yes a larger screen is an incremental improvement.

Really I don't understand why so many get so wrapped up in their cell phones. It is nothing more than a tool and frankly iPad beats it hands down in many ways. Gotta believe many have something missing in their personal life.
post #6 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2992 View Post

smack that: already got my 4S, so I'll let the rest of the world to wait&go for 5.

Ditto. My skip generation as well.
Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
Reply
Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
Reply
post #7 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


Gotta space these threads out, guys. We have until October until it happens…

I say Apple is back to the June announcement / July release. I often wonder if Apple waited until October for the 4S release so as to not have it on the market for long as Apple's top phone.

2nd fiscal quarter announcement in April might tell us what to expect.

I'd guess that Apple would want to get the full impact of a redesigned iPhone. Why bother with one monster quarter in 2012 when you could easily have two.

We'll see.
na na na na na...
Reply
na na na na na...
Reply
post #8 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2992 View Post

5

post #9 of 241
the next time you'll see Apple's stock price at $370 is after a 2:1 stock split
post #10 of 241
post #11 of 241
I think it's possible and not altogether unlikely that the next iPhone will largely stick with the same form factor. I don't think Apple are in the habit of changing things for changes sake, and the design of the 4 and 4S still stands out head and shoulders above the market. There is no rule that says Apple changes the external design every two years.

Bigger screen, different, but not better.
Aluminium back, different, but not better.
Any of the other stuff that routinely gets thrown out in the rumour wash, different, but not better.

censored

Reply

censored

Reply
post #12 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

3.7" screen. Same resolution. Same basic physical width of device.

Happy shareholder : )

3.5" 3:2 = 5.65" sq
3.7" 3:2 = 6.32" sq (11.8% more area)
4.0" 3:2 = 7.69" sq (36.1% more area)

Is 11% really worth wreaking havoc for Apple and 3rd-party devs?

This bot has been removed from circulation due to a malfunctioning morality chip.

Reply

This bot has been removed from circulation due to a malfunctioning morality chip.

Reply
post #13 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crowley View Post

I think it's possible and not altogether unlikely that the next iPhone will largely stick with the same form factor. I don't think Apple are in the habit of changing things for changes sake, and the design of the 4 and 4S still stands out head and shoulders above the market. There is no rule that says Apple changes the external design every two years.

Bigger screen, different, but not better.
Aluminium back, different, but not better.
Any of the other stuff that routinely gets thrown out in the rumour wash, different, but not better.

I agree, but in the consumer market, "different" often correlates to "better." Designs get changed because they've been around for a long time and look tired. A few live on to become "classics," but very few.
Please don't be insane.
Reply
Please don't be insane.
Reply
post #14 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

I agree, but in the consumer market, "different" often correlates to "better." Designs get changed because they've been around for a long time and look tired. A few live on to become "classics," but very few.

I agree that I think they need a refreshed look. I would personally like to see a thinner and bigger form-factor, though I don't want to spark a big debate here on this since I am sure its been hashed around many many many times before the 4S was released.
post #15 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Is 11% really worth wrecking havoc for Apple and 3rd-party devs?

He specifically said to keep the resolution the same. I'm not sure it would affect much.

What I don't understand is why people aren't just doing everything in VECTOR to begin with.

Scribblenauts. On the DS. Great game. But on the iOS version? Everything is now vector based. It looks WONDERFUL and translates beautifully from the iPhone to the iPad.
post #16 of 241
The iphone 4S is barely 3 months old!
post #17 of 241
Does anyone track if these analysts are accurate after the future actually happens?
post #18 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

He specifically said to keep the resolution the same.

Hence my comment on dimensions.

Quote:
What I don't understand is why people aren't just doing everything in VECTOR to begin with.

Scribblenauts. On the DS. Great game. But on the iOS version? Everything is now vector based. It looks WONDERFUL and translates beautifully from the iPhone to the iPad.

As Apple found when trying to add Resolution Independence a long time ago back in Tiger (maybe sooner) making everything distance vector simply isn't the most efficient way to use system resources. You can look at Mac OS and iOS icons to see different resolutions being used.

This bot has been removed from circulation due to a malfunctioning morality chip.

Reply

This bot has been removed from circulation due to a malfunctioning morality chip.

Reply
post #19 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Hence my comment on dimensions.

Well yes, but I don't see how it 'wreaks havoc' when nothing changes. I'm sure I'm missing something here.
post #20 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Well yes, but I don't see how it 'wreaks havoc' when nothing changes. I'm sure I'm missing something here.

It all changes. Apple wasn't even satisfied with Helvetica on iOS for the iPhone 4 with the 960x640 display that they used Helvetica Neue. And that was only doubling the resolution but keeping the dimensions the same. If you go with a larger size they will tweak it to make it ideal for that larger size. Older apps will look alight, and certainly better than what you see on Android, but they will update Xcode so you can idealize your app for the new dimensions.

This bot has been removed from circulation due to a malfunctioning morality chip.

Reply

This bot has been removed from circulation due to a malfunctioning morality chip.

Reply
post #21 of 241
Skipped 3G S for 4.

Skipping 4S for 5.

And duh, 'analysts.'
post #22 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

I agree, but in the consumer market, "different" often correlates to "better." Designs get changed because they've been around for a long time and look tired. A few live on to become "classics," but very few.

"Different" gives salespeople more talking points...

There's a good chance that the next form factor for the iPhone could become a classic. The competition has shown its hand long ago... 4.3" and 4.7"... how much further can they go before it becomes a phone tablet. Apple can bring out a 4" or 4.1" iPhone and it'll be a design that can be used for a long time... size will not be a factor anymore.
na na na na na...
Reply
na na na na na...
Reply
post #23 of 241
If the 5 goes to 4, I'll buy it. I didn't get the first iOhone, but bought the 3G. Missed the 3GS, but bought the 4, couldn't resist the 4S.

So if the 5 has the same screen size, I'll miss that one too. But for a 4" screen, I'll pop for it. It will be just big enough to make typing easier by enough so that it will be worth it. I don't want anything bigger, so I hope they don't go that way.
post #24 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

3.5" 3:2 = 5.65" sq
3.7" 3:2 = 6.32" sq (11.8% more area)
4.0" 3:2 = 7.69" sq (36.1% more area)

Is 11% really worth wreaking havoc for Apple and 3rd-party devs?

Same resolution. Sleepy time for you.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
Reply
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
Reply
post #25 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

"Different" gives salespeople more talking points...

There's a good chance that the next form factor for the iPhone could become a classic. The competition has shown its hand long ago... 4.3" and 4.7"... how much further can they go before it becomes a phone tablet. Apple can bring out a 4" or 4.1" iPhone and it'll be a design that can be used for a long time... size will not be a factor anymore.

Samsung showed a 5" model at CES. Reminded me of the Dell Streak, which streaked by so fast, consumers never got a chance to buy one before it was discontinued. It's getting a bit ridiculous.
post #26 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

Reply
post #27 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

Same resolution. Sleepy time for you.

Not once did I mention the resolution in my post. I very, very clearly pointed out the physical dimensions that would change. It's not hard to understand, changing the size of elements changes the size of the elements. Here's an example: there are ≈4.5" 1280x720 Android phones... and there are ≈40" HDTVs with 1280x720 resolution. You still want to argue the dimensions of the elements wouldn't change? TIme for you to wake up.

This bot has been removed from circulation due to a malfunctioning morality chip.

Reply

This bot has been removed from circulation due to a malfunctioning morality chip.

Reply
post #28 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Samsung showed a 5" model at CES. Reminded me of the Dell Streak, which streaked by so fast, consumers never got a chance to buy one before it was discontinued. It's getting a bit ridiculous.

Which just shows that Samsung really does believe that bigger is better. I mean, really, do the Samsung execs really think that people want a 5" phone. Sad...

... but, if Apple does increase the size of the screen then I can hear the Android camp, "So, Apple decided to copy Samsung and the other Android vendors and use a bigger screen!". Again... sad.
na na na na na...
Reply
na na na na na...
Reply
post #29 of 241
"94%" of iPhone users plan to upgrade. 94%!

The precision!

But on a serious note, what is the upgrade plan for someone buying 3GS right now. The fact is it is the #3 bestselling smartphone in the US suggests there are many such consumers. What do they upgrade to in 2-3 years? The odds of iOS8 fully supporting 3GS are slim. What will these folks do? Upgrade to the latest iPhone then? Upgrade to whatever the cheapest version available will be?
post #30 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Which just shows that Samsung really does believe that bigger is better. I mean, really, do the Samsung execs really think that people want a 5" phone. Sad...

... but, if Apple does increase the size of the screen then I can hear the Android camp, "So, Apple decided to copy Samsung and the other Android vendors and use a bigger screen!". Again... sad.

Samsung doesn't copy Apple¡

This bot has been removed from circulation due to a malfunctioning morality chip.

Reply

This bot has been removed from circulation due to a malfunctioning morality chip.

Reply
post #31 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

I'm really tired of the guys that write articles claiming that iPhone 4s is the same design as the 4. It is just plain ignorance folks and frankly Apple insider can do better. The phone has all of the following new: antenna, battery, processor, base band chips, GPS system, effectively all new electronics.

As to a flat panel, how much innovation does one expect there? A little bigger a little smaller, a little brighter or a little darker, all nice to contemplate but they are not something that is as compelling as a the other new capabilities.

As to iPhone 5 sorry guys but don't get wound up in the hype, it is a phone that sits in your pocket next to your best friend. Apple has already done the major moves to deliver innovation in this field, the rest is incremental improvements. And yes a larger screen is an incremental improvement.

Really I don't understand why so many get so wrapped up in their cell phones. It is nothing more than a tool and frankly iPad beats it hands down in many ways. Gotta believe many have something missing in their personal life.

Agreed, they are night and day different.
From Apple ][ - to new Mac Pro I've used them all.
Long on AAPL so biased
Google Motto "You're not the customer. You're the product."
Reply
From Apple ][ - to new Mac Pro I've used them all.
Long on AAPL so biased
Google Motto "You're not the customer. You're the product."
Reply
post #32 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

"94%" of iPhone users plan to upgrade. 94%!

The precision!

But on a serious note, what is the upgrade plan for someone buying 3GS right now. The fact is it is the #3 bestselling smartphone in the US suggests there are many such consumers. What do they upgrade to in 2-3 years? The odds of iOS8 fully supporting 3GS are slim. What will these folks do? Upgrade to the latest iPhone then? Upgrade to whatever the cheapest version available will be?

Oh come on, only to a round number?
From Apple ][ - to new Mac Pro I've used them all.
Long on AAPL so biased
Google Motto "You're not the customer. You're the product."
Reply
From Apple ][ - to new Mac Pro I've used them all.
Long on AAPL so biased
Google Motto "You're not the customer. You're the product."
Reply
post #33 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

"Different" gives salespeople more talking points...

There's a good chance that the next form factor for the iPhone could become a classic. The competition has shown its hand long ago... 4.3" and 4.7"... how much further can they go before it becomes a phone tablet. Apple can bring out a 4" or 4.1" iPhone and it'll be a design that can be used for a long time... size will not be a factor anymore.

It's not necessarily about salespeople and talking points. Tastes change, and especially in tech where change is a constant and predicting what is possible or desirable more than a few years out is a virtual impossibility. You just have to know it will be different. The consumer tech market today reminds me of the automobile market during the 1950s. Any manufacturer that doesn't constantly find new ways to excite consumers is going to get trampled.
Please don't be insane.
Reply
Please don't be insane.
Reply
post #34 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

... but, if Apple does increase the size of the screen then I can hear the Android camp, "So, Apple decided to copy Samsung and the other Android vendors and use a bigger screen!". Again... sad.

The current iPhone design is phantastic! I just hope they keep the basics the same in the next iteration. Faster processor, better battery life, more storage and maybe double RAM and I would be happy to upgrade. But pleeeaaase no bigger screen!!
post #35 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

"94%" of iPhone users plan to upgrade. 94%!

The precision!

But on a serious note, what is the upgrade plan for someone buying 3GS right now. The fact is it is the #3 bestselling smartphone in the US suggests there are many such consumers. What do they upgrade to in 2-3 years? The odds of iOS8 fully supporting 3GS are slim. What will these folks do? Upgrade to the latest iPhone then? Upgrade to whatever the cheapest version available will be?

The chance of iOS 6 (much less 8) supporting the 3Gs are slim. But if it does, it will be a big deal. Whatever iPhone people migrate to will make Apple happy. We can be sure that moving from their least expensive model to the next least expensive model is far better than them migrating to something else.

If Apple can support the 3GS one year past its discontinuance, it would be considered to be mucho important, particularly considering how long it would have been supported.
post #36 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

I'm really tired of the guys that write articles claiming that iPhone 4s is the same design as the 4. It is just plain ignorance folks and frankly Apple insider can do better. The phone has all of the following new: antenna, battery, processor, base band chips, GPS system, effectively all new electronics.

As to a flat panel, how much innovation does one expect there? A little bigger a little smaller, a little brighter or a little darker, all nice to contemplate but they are not something that is as compelling as a the other new capabilities.

As to iPhone 5 sorry guys but don't get wound up in the hype, it is a phone that sits in your pocket next to your best friend. Apple has already done the major moves to deliver innovation in this field, the rest is incremental improvements. And yes a larger screen is an incremental improvement.

Really I don't understand why so many get so wrapped up in their cell phones. It is nothing more than a tool and frankly iPad beats it hands down in many ways. Gotta believe many have something missing in their personal life.

That is one hell of a good rant.

This bot has been removed from circulation due to a malfunctioning morality chip.

Reply

This bot has been removed from circulation due to a malfunctioning morality chip.

Reply
post #37 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

I'm really tired of the guys that write articles claiming that iPhone 4s is the same design as the 4. It is just plain ignorance folks and frankly Apple insider can do better. The phone has all of the following new: antenna, battery, processor, base band chips, GPS system, effectively all new electronics.

As to a flat panel, how much innovation does one expect there? A little bigger a little smaller, a little brighter or a little darker, all nice to contemplate but they are not something that is as compelling as a the other new capabilities.

As to iPhone 5 sorry guys but don't get wound up in the hype, it is a phone that sits in your pocket next to your best friend. Apple has already done the major moves to deliver innovation in this field, the rest is incremental improvements. And yes a larger screen is an incremental improvement.

Really I don't understand why so many get so wrapped up in their cell phones. It is nothing more than a tool and frankly iPad beats it hands down in many ways. Gotta believe many have something missing in their personal life.

If I buy an old Chevy. Put in a new engine, battery, shocks, suspension, all around new under the shell it is not a redesigned car. Don't be naive.
post #38 of 241
The only problem for Apple is that the appetite for smart phones is so great that it may lose potential purchases (and thus market share) as people invesigate Samsung's ever shortening product cycles. You know, it's the: 'I think I'll try a Sammy while I wait for the next iPhone' mentality.

The smart phone market is going ballistic right now. It's like a landgrab for customers. I wonder what % of both potential and existing customers Samsung is stealing from Apple by Samsung refreshing its line-up so often.

While Apple has delivered great results with the 4S, i still tend to think it was too little, too late*. I can only imagine what a monster the much rumoured iPhone 5 would have been if it had it arrived last September?

This makes me think that Apple may return to a June roll-pout for the iPhone 5. In fact it may need to do this simply to satisfy demand in time for Christmas 2012.

Personally, i find it crazy that some people will happily change their phone two times in a year (where do these kids find the cash to do that?) but they do. They're hooked on their smart phones.

*Yes, I know the internals were new, but the market really expected a new and larger screen and this is what is most getting Samsung notices with new Gallaxy and Note models.
post #39 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rabbit_Coach View Post

The current iPhone design is phantastic! I just hope they keep the basics the same in the next iteration. Faster processor, better battery life, more storage and maybe double RAM and I would be happy to upgrade. But pleeeaaase no bigger screen!!

We know of screens (ok, one) that have the image almost from edge to edge, unlike current screens. Right now, there is about 0.1875" at each edge of the image to the edge of the phone. If they could drop that to 0.0625", they would have gained 0.125" of room.

So, right now, the 3.5" screen is actually 1.94" x 2.91".
A 4" inch screen would be ....................2.22" x 3.33"

The difference in width is just 0.28". This is just over 0.25". Apple could make a phone with a 4" screen that was just a bit over 0.15" wider than now, hardly noticeable. It would be longer, but that doesn't enter the hold-ability test. It would also be almost as easy to reach each corner of the screen for people with smaller than average hands.

I don't see a problem here, just benefits.
post #40 of 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

I'm really tired of the guys that write articles claiming that iPhone 4s is the same design as the 4. It is just plain ignorance folks and frankly Apple insider can do better. The phone has all of the following new: antenna, battery, processor, base band chips, GPS system, effectively all new electronics.

REALLY? You know good and well that when people say it has the same design as the iPhone 4 that people are referring to the external physical design and not the internals.

You're just as bad as the people you are complaining about. Kettle meet pot.
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: iPhone
  • Strong sales of iPhone 4S a precursor to 'monster' launch of redesigned 'iPhone 5'
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › Strong sales of iPhone 4S a precursor to 'monster' launch of redesigned 'iPhone 5'