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Morgan Stanley: Apple's next iPhone to be slimmer, may include quad-mode LTE chip

post #1 of 45
Thread Starter 
Investment bank Morgan Stanley hinted on Friday that Apple's next-generation iPhone will be slimmer when it arrives later this year and could include a quad-mode chip from Qualcomm that would allow for 3G and LTE functionality across all "network flavors."

Apple will remain impervious to a broader decline in consumer demand throughout the technology industry through the release of its third-generation iPad in the first half of 2012 and the launch of a thinner iPhone later this year, analyst Katy Huberty wrote in a note to investors detailing takeaways from a recent trip to Asia.

Data points for Apple are "mostly positive," she said, as the company is expected to maintain unit shipments this quarter, compared to a 10 percent sequential decline from the December quarter in the broader market.

"Apple will also launch iPad 3 in H1 and a slimmer iPhone later this year," she wrote.

Huberty believes production for the next iPad will ramp up at the end of this quarter. She voiced expectations that Apple's next-generation tablet will have a higher resolution display.

As for Apple's next iPhone, Huberty said details on the device remained "sparse," but she believes the device will be ready at the end of the second quarter. The launch will depend on "manufacturing yields," she said, adding that she expects the next-gen iPhone to arrive in the third quarter "unless competition heats up."

According to her, new touch panel technology will enable Apple to make the device thinner. Huberty also claimed Apple is "considering" new casing materials.

The Cupertino, Calif., company also benefited in the December quarter from a decision to keep the iPad 2 on the market at a reduced price after the the third-generation iPad arrives, the analyst noted. Looking ahead to the March quarter, Apple's strength appears to be iPhone 4S driven, though signs also point to the iPad performing "better than seasonal" during the period.

Huberty said it appears that the next-generation iPhone will incorporate Qualcomm's quad-mode chip that would allow it to "run on all 3G and LTE network flavors," but she said it was "too early to know for sure." If Apple were to ink a deal with China Mobile, it would increase confidence that Apple would utilize the chip, she added.

"What is clear about iPhone 5 is that Apple and its supply chain are positively surprised by the demand for iPhone 4S, which increases confidence in strong sales for iPhone 5 later this year. Overall, the supply chain looks for stronger than market growth for both the iPhone (50%+ y/y vs. market 20-30%) and the iPad (20-40% growth, higher with a lower priced iPad 2)," she wrote.

Recent reports have hinted that Apple is in talks with carriers to release LTE-compatible iOS devices later this year. Apple is also said to be in negotiations with China Mobile and has reportedly given the world's largest carrier a "positive answer" on an future LTE iPhone compatible with its network.

Huberty's Asian sources suggested that Apple's strength will be the exception, rather than the rule, in the coming year. The tech supply chain is experiencing "worse than normal seasonality" during the first half of this year due to "macro pressures and back-end loaded product cycles," she said.

More specifically, the analyst cited weak sales in Europe, a seasonal demand drop in the U.S., limited technology/product cycles and "weakening commercial put pressure" in the first half of 2011, especially in the first quarter.

Though Apple's competitors in the PC industry expect the release of Microsoft's Windows 8 operating system to give lift to PC sales, Huberty cautioned that "visibility into pricing, a key determinant of growth," of such devices remains low. The analyst also said she was surprised by the "lack of HDD supply concerns" and expects prices to normalize by the end of the second quarter.

PC makers will need to determine pricing for ultrabooks in particular, Huberty said, noting that the laptop category's bill-of-materials needs to fall in order to hit a selling price that will attract high volumes. Even so, "it remains unclear when or if these price cuts can ultimately stimulate Ultrabook demand," she added. Earlier this week, analysts at Gartner said consumers hesitated to adopt ultrabooks in the fourth quarter of 2011.

Companies Huberty spoke to said they expect the first Windows 8 products to arrive in the middle of the third quarter of 2012, with ARM-based devices taking "longer to ramp to volume" because of software compatibility issues and additional R&D efforts. PC demand is likely to see "at least a modest uptick" following the release of Windows 8.

"Reasons for optimism include: 1) Initial Win 8 engineering feedback is positive, 2) Windows has more corporate support than Android and Apple, and 3) Most vendors expect Microsoft to provide free apps or even products to stimulate demand if necessary," she said.

Within the mobile industry, Huberty sees non-iPhone smartphone demand as having tapered off in recent weeks. She warned that Qualcomm could provide "sub-seasonal" guidance for its Mobile Station Modem chips in the second quarter of fiscal 2012 as a result of the slowdown in demand.
post #2 of 45
Also, tomorrow the sky "may" be blue in colour. Anyways, Windows8 will probably keep the PC industry waddling along, while Windows 8 tablets don't seem to hold much promise IMHO. Windows Phone 7/8... not sure what's happening there.
post #3 of 45
Please post link of article if full of quotes. Thanks!
post #4 of 45
And Morgan Stanley got all their information from Apple Insider

Please update the AppleInsider app to function in landscape mode.

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Please update the AppleInsider app to function in landscape mode.

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post #5 of 45
Funny. in the ancient times of computer industry, there were "IBM watchers", trying to decipher Big blue strategy, and to anticipate the next move. Seems they are recycled into Apple watchers ... Even though, as financial analysts, they do not seem to me very qualified for this ... But well, in this particular occasion, they do not take many risks, do they ?
post #6 of 45
Quote:
The Cupertino, Calif., also benefited in the December quarter from a decision to keep the iPad 2 on the market at a reduced price following the arrival of the third-generation iPad, the analyst noted. Looking ahead to the March quarter, Apple's strength appears to be iPhone 4S driven, though signs also point to the iPad performing "better than seasonal" during the period.

iPad 2? iPad 3? Benefited? December quarter?

Are we already in 2013?
post #7 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by kriskkalu View Post

iPad 2? iPad 3? Benefited? December quarter?

Are we already in 2013?

You're right that the article is really odd. Talking about the iPad 2 remaining at reduced prices in the past tense? Perhaps this one wasn't supposed to be published until April.
melior diabolus quem scies
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melior diabolus quem scies
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post #8 of 45
makes you wonder how much slimmer phones can possibly get. at the present moment manufacturers are gloating about 0.5 mm advantage. it's getting to the point where the world's slimmest phone will be about 3 microns thinner than the next one. in other words, it's just marketing crap that the informed consumer should not care about.

kinda like having a display with 600 ppi. what's the point? time to focus less on measuring contests that make no sense and focus on things that do. like screen technology. a super AMOLED plus high density display would be amazing. wish I could get a TVs made out of that stuff.
or maybe a new kind of battery that can play a week of video before dying.

that's the kind of stuff I would buy. not a phone that is 0.05mm slimmer.
post #9 of 45
Thinner and bigger don't necessarily mean better, unless your perspective is entirely unsophisticated. The IP4/S form factor is nearly perfect, and I think it could last another few generations. (It may not, but it could.) We all know the downsides of bigger -- i.e., the phone becomes a pain to carry around and use -- but, thinner, at least siginificantly thinner, which might sound like a good thing, isn't really either.

Use as a camera has become a really big deal with smartphones, but, if they get significantly thinner, they'll become a pain to use as a camera. A significantly thinner IP4/S would start to become difficult to work with as a camera. The current form factor, with flat sides works very well in this regard.
post #10 of 45
I'd love to have Kay Huberty's job. Get paid to browse the internet all day and rehash the same rumors you read everywhere, then make 'analyses' out of it. Beats having to figure out difficult programming problems and dealing with crazy managers and project planners all day.
post #11 of 45
Elsewhere the report stated that water may well be wet.

Verizons recent "all future smartphones must have LTE" announcement (http://www.intomobile.com/2012/01/12...o-feature-lte/) pretty much guarantees the LTE part of this report unless Apple have got themselves some so far unannounced exception to this ruling.
post #12 of 45
I think Apple could stand to go just slightly bigger on the iPhone's screen size. Maybe 4" max. But I agree that I'm tired of this thinness war, it's stupid. However I like what Motorola did with the Razr Maxx. Build the thinnest phone possible then strapped twice the battery to it so it brings it back out to normal, in the process giving it twice the run time of almost anyone else.

Maybe Apple will do something similar. Decide the ideal thickness based on ergonomics and then just cram it full of battery. I think the extra weight would be fine, at least until we get those Lithium Ion Graphene batteries into production.
post #13 of 45
I wouldn't expect much thinner when we jump to quad core. The battery will be bigger, making the phone as thick as it is now.
post #14 of 45
This true "world phone" will cause a price war neither of the carriers will survive. I predict that Apple & Google will be carrier shopping soon.
post #15 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

Thinner and bigger don't necessarily mean better, unless your perspective is entirely unsophisticated. The IP4/S form factor is nearly perfect, and I think it could last another few generations. (It may not, but it could.) We all know the downsides of bigger -- i.e., the phone becomes a pain to carry around and use -- but, thinner, at least siginificantly thinner, which might sound like a good thing, isn't really either.

When I hold something, I want to feel it. I see no benefit in going any thinner than the top phones are already.

I think motorola made the right move by slightly increasing thickness of Razr Maxx giving significantly improved battery life (21 hrs talk time). Much more important than being 0.5 mm thinner than your competition IMO.

iPhones already have a great battery but it could be even better if they do not get caught in a battle for the thinnest.
post #16 of 45
Hit the nail on the proverbial head - give me a phone with the options I need/want and a frickin' battery that will last the day!
post #17 of 45
Is Morgan Stanley sleeping with Al Gore? If their not, they should, because they would make a great pair.
post #18 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaveMcM76 View Post

Verizons recent "all future smartphones must have LTE" announcement (http://www.intomobile.com/2012/01/12...o-feature-lte/) pretty much guarantees the LTE part of this report unless Apple have got themselves some so far unannounced exception to this ruling.

"Ruling"? It's a company. They have absolutely no legal control over anything they say. Apple can do whatever the frick they want.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #19 of 45
Never understood the obsession with ultra thin. I hope phones don't continue to compete on that front as phones are plenty thin now
post #20 of 45
Morgan Stanly?
Tell me something I don't freakin know.
Duh.
post #21 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by AbsoluteDesignz View Post

Never understood the obsession with ultra thin. I hope phones don't continue to compete on that front as phones are plenty thin now

Whatever the next generation iPhone looks like, everyone will still love it unless Apple's designers make some unprecedented mistake or something.

Personally, I could go for a little thinner. If the entire phone was only as thick as the antenna band, (around 1/3 thinner), I think that would still be plenty thick enough. It's likely to have the same weight anyway, making it feel good in the hand.

If they made the screen the same size but edge to edge, it would also be about 1/4 inch smaller in height and width which wouldn't be a bad thing IMO.

The only thing I really hope they don't do, which I would see as a terrible "mistake" is to make it look like a little iPad (as in 90% of all the iPhone 5 mockups), with the sharp edges, and being so thin that it would be hard to hold. That is an iPhone that I simply would not buy and I don't think I'm alone on that.

I can't imagine what drives blogs to continually put out the idea that it will have an aluminium back and essentially look like a tiny iPad unless it's just pure laziness and a lack of photoshop skills.
post #22 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

"Ruling"? It's a company. They have absolutely no legal control over anything they say. Apple can do whatever the frick they want.

Um what? Of course they have all the legal control over anything they say, it's THEIR network. Apple can do what they want, but ultimately Verizon decides what uses it's network, sorry. If Apple for some reason did want to do CDMA only again, VZ could say no and there's nothing Apple could do about it. Likely? of course not. Now, Verizon did reiterate that LTE point pretty well here at CES (I'm actually here), so that pretty much tells iPhone 6 would have LTE.

Verizon is very actively working on VoLTE. They want to start planning the sunset of CDMA entirely.
I'm not a pessimist. I'm an optimist, with experience.
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I'm not a pessimist. I'm an optimist, with experience.
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post #23 of 45
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

This is Katy Huberty's analysis. Her track record is worse than Digitimes.

Whatever Katy predicts, the odds are that it won't happen. Her reliability is comically bad.
post #24 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

Also, tomorrow the sky "may" be blue in colour.

I had the same reaction, but then I realized that the fault lies with the AI headline and not the analyst in this case. The analyst said (apparently) "the next iPhone WILL..." I don't know why the headline watered that down since it attributes the statement to Morgan Stanley.

I wonder if it will be thinner by the .2mm that Corning was bragging about with their Gorilla Glass 2
post #25 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by thataveragejoe View Post

Apple can do what they want, but ultimately Verizon decides what uses it's network, sorry.

You're joking, right?

Quote:
If Apple for some reason did want to do CDMA only

GSM, you mean.

Quote:
VZ could say no and there's nothing Apple could do about it.

No, there's not a single thing Verizon could do about it.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #26 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by umrk_lab View Post

Funny. in the ancient times of computer industry, there were "IBM watchers", trying to decipher Big blue strategy, and to anticipate the next move. Seems they are recycled into Apple watchers ... Even though, as financial analysts, they do not seem to me very qualified for this ... But well, in this particular occasion, they do not take many risks, do they ?

Even better - notice that this is the cited analyst's *job*. She went to Asia, saw some things that she isn't giving evidence of, drew some conclusions...and ge's paid to do this. IOW, just what everyone here on AI could do, given someone show them some vague shiat in Asia.

Then, it gets better - people pay the company she works for to give this "advice" to them so they can plan their portfolio. And we wonder why the financial markets crashed.
post #27 of 45
Does this mean this chip would also work with T-Mobile in the US or not?
post #28 of 45
The title of the article is misleading. Take out the colon, substitute the word "speculates" and you're telling the truth.

Also, who taught this woman to write? Her phrases are more couched, convoluted and ambiguous than a central bankers. I realize we're only reading very small snippets and her audience may appreciate her phrases but if I were paying for these reports I'd be asking her to farm it out to a copy editor.
post #29 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by mosqueda View Post

Does this mean this chip would also work with T-Mobile in the US or not?

Er, first, Quad MODE. Second, T-Mobile has no LTE, so no, it won't work for that. Third, if this chip allows the 1700MHz band alongside the 2(4?)00MHz band, we MIGHT see T-Mobile 3G.

But what good is that, really?

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #30 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

Thinner and bigger don't necessarily mean better, unless your perspective is entirely unsophisticated. The IP4/S form factor is nearly perfect, and I think it could last another few generations. (It may not, but it could.) We all know the downsides of bigger -- i.e., the phone becomes a pain to carry around and use -- but, thinner, at least siginificantly thinner, which might sound like a good thing, isn't really either.

Use as a camera has become a really big deal with smartphones, but, if they get significantly thinner, they'll become a pain to use as a camera. A significantly thinner IP4/S would start to become difficult to work with as a camera. The current form factor, with flat sides works very well in this regard.

Although I agree that the flat sides of the iPhone 4/S are better for taking photos, I disagree with you in that the form-factor being "near perfect".

Personally, I thought the iPhone3gs was the best form-factor with regards all-around use as a smartphone. I liked the curved back that cupped your hand perfectly. The current iPhone form-factor has too sharp of edges, it's really too thin IMHO and I have to have a case in order to hold it comfortably. I never had a case for my iPhone 3g/s.

I think the screen size needs work though. After using my iPad for almost a year now, I would prefer a screen that's a bit larger on the phone. Not much bigger; I'd take 4.8" over the current 3.5"

It's my hope that apple's next iPhone (6th Gen.) would look more like the iPod Touch form-factor with a bigger screen size. IMO that would be closer to perfect for me. To me, thinner is not better. give me lighter, larger screen, and better battery life. Heck you can even make it a bit thicker and I'd be fine with that.
post #31 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody View Post

The only thing I really hope they don't do, which I would see as a terrible "mistake" is to make it look like a little iPad (as in 90% of all the iPhone 5 mockups), with the sharp edges, and being so thin that it would be hard to hold. That is an iPhone that I simply would not buy and I don't think I'm alone on that.

I thought the same thing until i got an iPad. If you bothered to look, the current iPod touch has the same form factor as the iPad as well. The "sharp" edges you speak of aren't as sharp as you think. The bezel of the screen curves downward to the metal and makes a nice smooth edge. I'd like to the see the next iPhone like this but a tad thicker with a 4.8" screen...see my above post for more info.
post #32 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by antkm1 View Post

... I think the screen size needs work though. After using my iPad for almost a year now, I would prefer a screen that's a bit larger on the phone. Not much bigger; I'd take 4.8" over the current 3.5" ...

4.8" is a ridiculous size for a phone screen.
post #33 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

4.8" is a ridiculous size for a phone screen.

Indeed. 4.8" is completely unusable.

I have huge hands, see, and in landscape mode on a phone that big, I can't even reach the center bottom of the screen, much less the center top.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #34 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

4.8" is a ridiculous size for a phone screen.

Agreed.

And although my friend's Touch is sexy-cool in its thinness, it sort of freaks me out, too. It took me a bit of time to get used to the form factor of the 4S after having used the 3GS for so long, but now it's just perfect.

If they made it thinner by any appreciable amount, I don't think I would like it.
post #35 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

You're joking, right?

Not at all. As I recall it's happened before with the iPhone, oops. It's also happened for the same reason with the initial run of the GSII, Blackberry Storm 3, and others.

Quote:
GSM, you mean.

Have some more coffee, Verizon is CDMA only without LTE, as is the case with the current 4/4S, so no, I meant what I said the 1st time.

Quote:
No, there's not a single thing Verizon could do about it.

No, Verizon still decides what phones it approves for its network and there's not a single thing Apple can do about that.
I'm not a pessimist. I'm an optimist, with experience.
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I'm not a pessimist. I'm an optimist, with experience.
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post #36 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by thataveragejoe View Post

Have some more coffee, Verizon is CDMA only without LTE, as is the case with the current 4/4S, so no, I meant what I said the 1st time.

Ah, you said 'again'; I figured you meant 'return to GSM-only'.

Quote:
No, Verizon still decides what phones it approves for its network and there's not a single thing Apple can do about that.

Other than, you know, decide not to sell the iPhone on Verizon's network. Then we'd see who's really in charge.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #37 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse View Post

Thinner and bigger don't necessarily mean better, unless your perspective is entirely unsophisticated. The IP4/S form factor is nearly perfect, and I think it could last another few generations. (It may not, but it could.) We all know the downsides of bigger -- i.e., the phone becomes a pain to carry around and use -- but, thinner, at least siginificantly thinner, which might sound like a good thing, isn't really either.

Use as a camera has become a really big deal with smartphones, but, if they get significantly thinner, they'll become a pain to use as a camera. A significantly thinner IP4/S would start to become difficult to work with as a camera. The current form factor, with flat sides works very well in this regard.

I agree that we've pretty much reached the limit of thin. You need a certain amount of depth to enable decent camera optics and allow electronics and battery to exist behind the screen. The current model of iPod touch is simply too small to sport a decent camera or a battery that can survive a whole day of wireless connectivity. I had one lose 20% of its battery in under 4 hours yesterday just sitting on my desk with the screen off because it happened to have WiFi turned on.

I disagree that the iPhone 4 form factor is perfect. The 3GS feels 100x better in my hand because it doesn't have sharp corners. The iPhone 4 feels like a small brick to me.

I'd also like a larger screen and have strong evidence that others feel the same way. Looking around the subway there are a lot of Android phones with 4.3" screens being held in tiny Asian hands. If they can cope with the size then anyone can. I also see iPhones in cute silicone cases that sometimes increase the overall dimensions of the iPhone by as much as 50% - 3" long bunny ears, Hello Kitty, anime style aliens, etc.
post #38 of 45
Thank heavens! I had been anxiously awaiting "Investment bank Morgan Stanley to tell me about the physical shape of my next phone.
post #39 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

[...] Most vendors expect Microsoft to provide free apps or even products to stimulate demand if necessary," she said.

That does seem to be Microsoft's modus operandi these days. Sometimes they'll even pay people to use and sell Microsoft products. Bing not getting any hits? Pay people through "cashback" to use it. Windows Phones being ignored by customers and sales people alike? Pay sales people $10 to $15 for every Windows Phone they sell.

This "business model" isn't sustainable, even if you happen to have tons of cash to burn. Microsoft certainly does have those tons of cash. And as we've all seen, Microsoft isn't afraid to throw good money after bad. But why is that? Why does Microsoft shovel bricks of cash into raging dumpster fires like Bing and Zune and Windows Phone?

Here's the explanation: Windows 3.1 back in the day and Xbox now.

Microsoft spent huge amounts of time and money copying Mac OS, from Windows 1.0 to Windows 2.0 to Windows 3.0. Without success. Finally, the 3.1 release was "good enough" and the rest is history. And what enabled Microsoft to spend all that time polishing a turd? DOS revenue.

Microsoft spent huge amounts of time and money on Xbox, and even more time and money on Xbox 360 and its Red Ring of Death. They lost billions on the hardware, hoping to make it up through game and online subscription sales. The original model Xbox 360's failure rate has been estimated at anywhere from 24% to 54%. The problems weren't "solved" until the newer Xbox 360 S replaced the original model. Only now, with the release of Kinect, is the Xbox division breaking even. And what enabled Microsoft to blow all that cash on bad hardware? Windows + Office revenue.

So the "damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead" mindset is part of Microsoft's culture now. They ignore weak product launches, years of poor sales, and years of massive losses. Because they expect to get it right by their 2nd or 3rd attempt. And their Windows + Office revenue subsidizes their clueless flailing while they fire-hose money at the problem. Eventually they just might back into a solution that actually sells.

Giving out a few thousand (or million) Windows 8 pads might give them an initial market share boost, but it's unsustainable. And Windows 8 pads would only be Microsoft's "2.0" attempt in the pad computing market after about a decade of vainly hyping vanilla Windows crammed into the pad form factor.

I wonder how long it will be until their 3rd attempt...

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Sent from my iPhone Simulator

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post #40 of 45
Quote:
Originally Posted by mosqueda View Post

Does this mean this chip would also work with T-Mobile in the US or not?

According to Neville Ray, chief technology officer of T-Mobile, Yes.
http://ces.cnet.com/8301-33363_1-573...ically-happen/
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