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Street consensus for Apple's iPad sales in Dec. quarter stands at 13.5 million units

post #1 of 50
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A survey of Wall Street and independent analysts has found that all of them expect Apple to report record iPad sales when it releases its December quarter financial results on Jan. 24, though independent analysts have a 10 percent higher average than the Street's consensus of 13.5 million units.

The 42 analysts polled by Fortune's Philip Elmer-DeWitt produced estimates ranging from 11.73 million to 19.47 million iPad units sold during the most recent quarter.

The low estimate came from Gabelli & Co. analyst Hendi Susanto earlier in the December quarter, while the highest forecast came from Apple Finance Board's Alexis Cabot earlier this month. Both numbers were considered outliers by Elmer-DeWitt.

By comparison, Apple set a record high for iPad sales in the September 2011 quarter with 11.2 million units. Assuming improved sales during the holiday season, Apple should have little trouble besting its previous record.

According to the report, the survey revealed "more agreement than usual" among professional and independent analysts. The average estimate from independents was 14.8 million, roughly 10 percent more than the Wall Street average. The same poll of analysts conducted for Apple's iPhone last week saw a more than 12 percent difference between professionals and independents.

When both groups are counted together, the consensus of nearly 14 million iPad units would imply 90 percent growth in iPad sales year over year. But, analysts have had some trouble accurately projecting iPad sales since the tablet was released in 2010. In the third quarter of calendar 2011, they were slightly disappointed by Apple's iPad results, as they were expecting sales of 11.92 million units.

Source:Fortune

Some analysts have voiced concern that Amazon's new Kindle Fire tablet ate into some of Apple's iPad sales in the fourth quarter of calendar 2011. Investment research firm Morgan Keenan believes the Cupertino, Calif., company's results were adversely affected by one to two million units "at most." Canaccord Genuity's Michael Walkley projects total iPad sales of 55 million in the 2012 calendar year.

Apple will report its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Tuesday, Jan. 24. The company is widely believed to have achieved a blowout quarter that will set all-time records for both the iPhone and the iPad. AppleInsider will provide live, extensive coverage of Apple's earnings report and subsequent conference call.

iPad sales will likely see a significant jump in volume later this quarter, as recent reports have pointed to a launch of the third-generation iPad in March. Bloombergclaimed last Friday that the device is now in production and will include 4G LTE support, a high-resolution display and a quad-core processor.
post #2 of 50
Meh, iPad 3 iPad 3 iPad 3!
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #3 of 50
The answer is 42 !
post #4 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Some analysts have voiced concern that Amazon's new Kindle Fire tablet cannibalized some of Apple's iPad sales in the fourth quarter of calendar 2011.

I keep seeing references to cannibalization but it's not possible for the Kindle Fire to have cannibalized iPad sales as they are made by different companies. It's just competition.
post #5 of 50
I take it these numbers are all just pulled out of thin air?
post #6 of 50
I wonder how many did as my brother's family did. Everyone got fires at Christmas, a week later they had all traded them on for iPads.
post #7 of 50
13.5M seems low to me by 2M.

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post #8 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Radjin View Post

I wonder how many did as my brother's family did. Everyone got fires at Christmas, a week later they had all traded them on for iPads.

Kindle Fire is no more than a gateway drug for the iPad. My mother has a Kindle Fire, and after roughly 15 minutes of use, I was scratching my head wondering what I should do with it. The browser however is much faster than I had read in the reviews.
post #9 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by McRCN View Post

I take it these numbers are all just pulled out of thin air?

Actually, sales estimations are often augmented by spot checks and many other indicators and are usually more like estimations than thin-air-guesses than other things analysts talk about like details of product launches or future industry trends.
post #10 of 50
Tip: It's whatever Gene Munster and Shaw Wu say, these guys know their shit, no one else really has a clue.
post #11 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stashman View Post

Tip: It's whatever Gene Munster and Shaw Wu say, these guys know their shit, no one else really has a clue.

Totally agree. And has been the case for the last decade.
post #12 of 50
Kindle Fire this and Kindle Fire that... Why don't they say that the Kindle Touch is also eating into iPad sales. I really don't get it. The Kindle Fire isn't even close in features to compare to the iPad and the price is nowhere's near iPad price, either. That's like saying Nissan Sentra sales are eating into BMW M3 Coupe sales merely because they lumping all certain size cars together. No one ever mentions how many Fires are getting returned because they don't want to hurt Jeff Bezos ego. Why don't they mention that the iPad is stealing sales from the Kindle Fire because if that's the case it should go either way? Apple is doing a bang-up job selling products on its own and the iPad doesn't need to be linked to whatever Amazon's tablet sales are doing.
post #13 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stashman View Post

Tip: It's whatever Gene Munster and Shaw Wu say, these guys know their shit, no one else really has a clue.

Really? Look at the rankings in the table in this article.

The last quarter was an odd quarter - first time in 2 years that Apple didn't blow out its guidance. In that extraordinarily low quarter, their rankings were pretty good. OTOH, in every previous quarter (including many quarters earlier than those on the table), these guys were near the bottom of the heap.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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post #14 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Radjin View Post

I wonder how many did as my brother's family did. Everyone got fires at Christmas, a week later they had all traded them on for iPads.

My mom got a Kindle Fire for Christmas. It goes unused because shed much rather use my iPad.

However, the reason she got the Kindle Fire (over an iPad) still applies, in that it is something she can fit in her purse, which you can't do with the iPad. I would really love to see a 7" iPad Mini, even if it was a limited device, which only served media, kind of like the Fire.
post #15 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by addicted44 View Post

My mom got a Kindle Fire for Christmas. It goes unused because shed much rather use my iPad.

However, the reason she got the Kindle Fire (over an iPad) still applies, in that it is something she can fit in her purse, which you can't do with the iPad. I would really love to see a 7" iPad Mini, even if it was a limited device, which only served media, kind of like the Fire.

That goes back to the original point that the Kindle will not iPad sales. The Kindle should be selling rather well because of the low price of entry but that is a different thing altogether. It's more like the PMP or smartphone didn't unseat the PC even as those markets took off. In fact, it's the iPad that is the first device to show any affect on the PC market but we'll have to wait longer to make sure this is a continuing trend among the iPad and any full-capacity tablets that might enter the market.

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #16 of 50
How does 13.5 million compare to the top selling Android tablets?

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iPod nano 5th Gen 8GB Orange, iPad 3rd Gen WiFi 32GB White
MacBook Pro 15" Core i7 2.66GHz 8GB RAM 120GB Intel 320M
Mac mini Core 2 Duo 2.4GHz 8GB RAM, iPhone 5 32GB Black

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post #17 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aizmov View Post

How does 13.5 million compare to the top selling Android tablets?

Probably 12.5 million more than the top Android tablet. I'm sure, however, that Samsung will announce 13.6 million shipped tablets.
post #18 of 50
Yes, growth of 90% year-over-year certainly sets a "record." But then so would growth of 0.01%. So can we please retire the meaningless word "record" (used four times in the article) and just refer to the actual growth numbers?
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #19 of 50
Why dont analysts just admit that they dont really know and are groping in the dark desperately for numbers to show that there relevent.
post #20 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

Meh, iPad 3 iPad 3 iPad 3!

Meh too! iPad 3 iPad 3 iPad 3!
post #21 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by addicted44 View Post

My mom got a Kindle Fire for Christmas. It goes unused because shed much rather use my iPad.

However, the reason she got the Kindle Fire (over an iPad) still applies, in that it is something she can fit in her purse, which you can't do with the iPad. I would really love to see a 7" iPad Mini, even if it was a limited device, which only served media, kind of like the Fire.

All such Fires should not count towards sales totals. If this is iPad cannibalization then bring it on. There are plenty of bags out there for those whose purses do not allow the size of the iPad.
post #22 of 50
Where is Alex Gauna ? Flipping burgers?

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/tag/alex-gauna/
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post #23 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by y2an View Post

I keep seeing references to cannibalization but it's not possible for the Kindle Fire to have cannibalized iPad sales as they are made by different companies. It's just competition.

you stole the words out of my mouth. People recently have been way overusing cannibalize, innovate, and other words popularized by the iPhone's and iPad's groundbreaking debuts.
post #24 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by y2an View Post

I keep seeing references to cannibalization but it's not possible for the Kindle Fire to have cannibalized iPad sales as they are made by different companies. It's just competition.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iObserver View Post

you stole the words out of my mouth. People recently have been way overusing cannibalize, innovate, and other words popularized by the iPhone's and iPad's groundbreaking debuts.

One definition of cannibalize: to cut into; cause to become reduced; diminish
post #25 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Radjin View Post

I wonder how many did as my brother's family did. Everyone got fires at Christmas, a week later they had all traded them on for iPads.

I've said the same thing in other posts
Amazon doesn't publish fire sold volume
And certainly WON'T publish return %
I have similar stories
Sales people pass off fire as "just like iPad"
Great sales pitch but it's a pitch to deceive
I don't know anyone that has kept the fire
To save money they buy refurbished ipad2
Or one family got 3 iPad 1 off eBay returning the fire
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I APPLE THEREFORE I AM
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post #26 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by y2an View Post

I keep seeing references to cannibalization but it's not possible for the Kindle Fire to have cannibalized iPad sales as they are made by different companies. It's just competition.

You are correct.

Quote:
Definition of 'Market Cannibalization'
The negative impact of a company's new product on the sales performance of its existing related products.
\t
Investopedia explains 'Market Cannibalization'

If a company is practicing market cannibalization, it is eating its own market. For example, say Coca Cola puts out a new product called Coke2, and customers buy Coke2 instead of regular Coke. Although sales may be up for the new product, these sales may be eating into Coke's original market, in which case the overall company sales would not be increasing. Because of the possibility of market cannibalization, investors should always dig deeper, analyzing the source and impact of the success of a company's new but similar product.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/...#ixzz1jYwsxfPw
post #27 of 50
The more Fires that got into people's hands, the better for Apple. Fact is, the iPad is simply so much more enjoyable to use, useful, etc. that getting a glimpse at what it would look like if other manufacturers dictated the direction tablets should go in merely makes the iPad seem that much more compelling.

Apple has it right. Deliver a decent tablet with a starting price of around $500. There's a market for such a product and Apple has the sales numbers to prove it.

By the way, one of the reasons the iPad is so successful is that Apple made the right choice in screen size. The iPad is just the right size for a device that is not intended to be pocketable. Smaller and it's less enjoyable to use, larger and it becomes too heavy to be practical as a handheld.
post #28 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stashman View Post

Tip: It's whatever Gene Munster and Shaw Wu say, these guys know their shit, no one else really has a clue.

Mostly disagree with that statement. Based on historical accuracies, don't follow what either say IMO.
post #29 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Buckeyestar View Post

One definition of cannibalize: to cut into; cause to become reduced; diminish

Saying that the Fire is cannibalizing the iPad is crazy because they are after different markets. Do you also consider iPod Touch sales as cannibalizing iPad sales as well? Products have to be after the same market in order for them to considered as cannibals of that market. Fire is closer to the Touch than it is to the iPad.

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post #30 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by McRCN View Post

I take it these numbers are all just pulled out of thin air?

No... It's a highly technical process called sphincter-synthesis.
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post #31 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by iObserver View Post

you stole the words out of my mouth. People recently have been way overusing cannibalize, innovate, and other words popularized by the iPhone's and iPad's groundbreaking debuts.

Also overused - 'groundbreaking'

post #32 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Also overused - 'groundbreaking'


Are "cannibalising" and "groundbreaking" overused because you guys don't think they should be used figuratively?

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply
post #33 of 50
Of course if people get upset at a smaller iPad Apple could always call it an iPod!😳

Quote:
Originally Posted by addicted44 View Post

My mom got a Kindle Fire for Christmas. It goes unused because shed much rather use my iPad.

However, the reason she got the Kindle Fire (over an iPad) still applies, in that it is something she can fit in her purse, which you can't do with the iPad. I would really love to see a 7" iPad Mini, even if it was a limited device, which only served media, kind of like the Fire.

No, it really needs to run apps just like all other iOS devices. I don't see a problem with this, everyone complains that it is more work for developers but frankly developers can go screw themselves. They can either support a sub 7" iPad orgo out of business.
post #34 of 50
Q4 2010 - 4.19 (october 18, 2010)
Q1 2011 - 7.33 (January 18, 2011)

So (7.33 - 4.19) / 4.19 = 75% growth

Q4 2011 - 11.12 (October 18, 2011)
Q1 2012 - ?

So 11.12 * 0.75 = 8.34 + 11.12 = 19.46

So the guy at the top of the estimates did a ratio from last holiday quarter. The catch is Apple had a bigger tablet market share in 2010, so you need to deduce something from that number. If you take out 2 millions because of the Kindle fire and others you get 17.46. Remember the Kindle Fire is a US only product, the impact is limited to US sales only.

So that my estimate, 17.46

If the real number is anything above 17 millions the stock is going to lift off to the moon. We already know the Mac did great, the iphone did great from leaks of wireless co sales. The last unknown is the ipad.
post #35 of 50
Trying to think of the most good to come out of these estimates. AppleInsider-please start a board and let us all kick in a dollar, for donation to charity, and whoever has chosen the number closest to the actual $ will get bragging rights and the money sent to their favorite charity (but not yourself.)
post #36 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Realistic View Post

Saying that the Fire is cannibalizing the iPad is crazy because they are after different markets. Do you also consider iPod Touch sales as cannibalizing iPad sales as well? Products have to be after the same market in order for them to considered as cannibals of that market. Fire is closer to the Touch than it is to the iPad.

It doesn't have to be the same market (segment). It has to be the same company, i.e., eating its own.

As previously been defined:

Definition of 'Market Cannibalization'
The negative impact of a company's new product on the sales performance of its [own} existing related products.
post #37 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

developers can go screw themselves. They can either support a sub 7" iPad orgo out of business.

Funny how that never seems to work in any other situation.

"Movie studios/music producers/workstation users can go screw themselves. They can either work on iMacs and Mac Minis or go out of business."

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #38 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Are "cannibalising" and "groundbreaking" overused because you guys don't think they should be used figuratively?

They're just crutches for people who want a long and fancy sounding word to describe the actions of or against their favorite company.
post #39 of 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onhka View Post

It doesn't have to be the same market (segment). It has to be the same company, i.e., eating its own.

As previously been defined:

Definition of 'Market Cannibalization'
The negative impact of a company's new product on the sales performance of its [own} existing related products.

If you want to be spot on, it should be the same company AND the same market (segment) but that is too much to expect from the analysts, AI or most of these comments.

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post #40 of 50
a dividend

   I am long on my shares of AAPL at $37.00

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   I am long on my shares of AAPL at $37.00

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