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NPD data suggests 'soft' sales of 4.9M Macs in December quarter

post #1 of 22
Thread Starter 
The latest U.S. sales data from the NPD Group suggests Apple sold around 4.9 million Macs last quarter, a number that will likely be seen as a mild disappointment on Wall Street.

Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray revealed in a note to investors on Tuesday that domestic NPD retail data for all three months of the December quarter shows U.S. Mac sales up 12 percent year over year. The data has prompted him to lower his forecasted Mac sales for the holiday quarter by 300,000 units to 4.9 million.

Munster's latest projection calls for Apple to see growth of 18 percent year over year. At 6 percent higher than NPD's data, the projection matches the differential of the September quarter, when actual growth was 26 percent and NPD's domestic data saw a 20 percent increase.

"Soft" Mac sales in the December quarter could be a result of tough comparisons from 2010. It was in October of that year that Apple launched its redesigned MacBook Air lineup.

Even if Mac sales do disappoint, Munster isn't worried. In fact, he raised his iPhone estimates by 600,000 units, to 30.6 million -- a number which will fully offset any reduced Mac revenue. In addition, Munster does not believe NPD's data suggests anything about Apple's iPad or iPhone sales in the December quarter.

Munster has been closely following NPD's monthly data for the quarter. Last month, he revealed that quarterly Mac sales in the U.S. were up 13 percent over the first two months of the quarter. The analyst had initially projected that Mac sales would spike in month of December.




The latest data suggests Apple is on pace to match its previous best for Mac sales in a three-month span. The company's current record came in the September quarter when it achieved sales of 4.89 million Macs.,

The full NPD data for the quarter also shows iPod sales down 16 percent, suggesting the final tally will be ahead of the market's consensus of 15.5 million units. Munster now believes iPod sales will be closer to 16 million for the quarter.
post #2 of 22
Oh here we go, AAPL will drop 20 points and 'Apple is doomed ™' ...
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Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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post #3 of 22
One more week and we'll find out if NPD is right..
post #4 of 22
Historically Apple share have gone up until the quality report.

"Experts" always find something that is disappointing with Apple. Almost overtime its something that are totally wrong. Last year it was Ipad disappointment. They did not tell that the number was affected by the Ipad1 to 2 transformation.

Same thing Q3 last year. Iphone disappointment. Nothing about the Iphone4 to S transformation. I also love how they harped that Apple missed Wall street when Apples profit only went up 54%.

Analytics have now seeded 3 stories that they can play up as disappointing:
1) The most insane analytics belive Apple sold 36 million phones. When Apple "only" sells 30-31 million its a "huge" disappointment
2) Ipad2 numbers. Many analytics have said it will be 13+ million. It will come in a couple of million short. "Kindle Fire is killing Ipad"
3) And now the Mac sales numbers. "Apple's luster is gone. No one bought macs during the holidays.

I predict that the shares will fall after the report and that they will bounce back starting about 3 weeks before the Ipad3 introduction. After the Ipad3 intro, the shares will fall again and then start to rise before Q1 report. After Q1 it will go down until 3 weeks before the next Apple event.
post #5 of 22
Who cares if its 4.9 or 6.2? They still did better than the PC industry by a long way....
post #6 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by pmz View Post

Who cares if its 4.9 or 6.2? They still did better than the PC industry by a long way....

Just as long as it isn't 5.

Originally Posted by asdasd

This is Appleinsider. It's all there for you but we can't do it for you.
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Originally Posted by asdasd

This is Appleinsider. It's all there for you but we can't do it for you.
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post #7 of 22
For some reason the establishment still doesn't believe Apple is for real. They keep looking for reasons to confirm their doubts. Even the craziest fanboy has to admit that this tremendous growth over the last decade can't continue but it just keeps on going anyway. Apple doesn't play nice with the establishment and they don't like it. The pundits all want to be ale to say "Told 'ya." No other company gets treated like this by Wallstreet.
post #8 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Oh here we go, AAPL will drop 20 points and 'Apple is doomed ' ...

You ain't lying!
I can't stand the greed on wall street. It is always about sell,sell,sell!!!!!!
It is never enough for wall street.NEVER! Even if you streamlined the tax code like so many have said we should it won't mean sh**! WS will still say"SHOW ME THE MONEY!".
And it better be more than you made last year or any previous year at that.
OMFG!!!
post #9 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

You ain't lying!
I can't stand the greed on wall street. It is always about sell,sell,sell!!!!!!
It is never enough for wall street.NEVER! Even if you streamlined the tax code like so many have said we should it won't mean sh**! WS will still say"SHOW ME THE MONEY!".
And it better be more than you made last year or any previous year at that.
OMFG!!!

Well not to worry, the short term hiccups are only a source of amusement and fascination to me really. I've had my AAPL a long time and intend to hold tight for a long time to come ... BTW I was wrong it's up ... perhaps this story hasn't filtered out to day traders yet!
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Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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Use duckduckgo.com with Safari, not Google Search
Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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post #10 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

For some reason the establishment still doesn't believe Apple is for real. They keep looking for reasons to confirm their doubts. Even the craziest fanboy has to admit that this tremendous growth over the last decade can't continue but it just keeps on going anyway. Apple doesn't play nice with the establishment and they don't like it. The pundits all want to be ale to say "Told 'ya." No other company gets treated like this by Wallstreet.

Of course it can continue. Why would you even doubt it?
Use duckduckgo.com with Safari, not Google Search
Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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Use duckduckgo.com with Safari, not Google Search
Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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post #11 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by shompa View Post

Historically Apple share have gone up until the quality report.

"Experts" always find something that is disappointing with Apple. Almost overtime its something that are totally wrong. Last year it was Ipad disappointment. They did not tell that the number was affected by the Ipad1 to 2 transformation.

Same thing Q3 last year. Iphone disappointment. Nothing about the Iphone4 to S transformation. I also love how they harped that Apple missed Wall street when Apples profit only went up 54%.

Analytics have now seeded 3 stories that they can play up as disappointing:
1) The most insane analytics belive Apple sold 36 million phones. When Apple "only" sells 30-31 million its a "huge" disappointment
2) Ipad2 numbers. Many analytics have said it will be 13+ million. It will come in a couple of million short. "Kindle Fire is killing Ipad"
3) And now the Mac sales numbers. "Apple's luster is gone. No one bought macs during the holidays.

I predict that the shares will fall after the report and that they will bounce back starting about 3 weeks before the Ipad3 introduction. After the Ipad3 intro, the shares will fall again and then start to rise before Q1 report. After Q1 it will go down until 3 weeks before the next Apple event.

Debunking this ludicrous old argument seems to be constantly required. No, this is not "historically" true. If Apple beats the street significantly, the shares typically rise in response. That is what has been true historically -- in fact not just for AAPL but for most stocks.

To understand this more fully, it helps to chart AAPL against the market in the weeks before an earnings announcement. If you do this, you will find that the stock reacts to a building consensus of analysts over what earnings will be. The market then reacts when the actual earnings are announced. Since investors well understand that affiliated analysts tend to estimate low, the announced earnings are expected to beat the street by a significant margin. What the stock does in the day or so after depends on the announced earnings relative to consensus, primarily, and secondarily, to guidance.

Before makings predictions it helps to have some actual knowledge and experience.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #12 of 22
Not a single machine in their mac line has gotten a physical revamp in a long time. The most recent redesign was the Macbook Air in Oct 2010, more than 15 months ago. Everything else (MBP, iMac, etc) is even older. I think the predicted redesign of their computers this year will give an uptick of sales and interest.
post #13 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpy View Post

Not a single machine in their mac line has gotten a physical revamp in a long time. The most recent redesign was the Macbook Air in Oct 2010, more than 15 months ago. Everything else (MBP, iMac, etc) is even older. I think the predicted redesign of their computers this year will give an uptick of sales and interest.

You must be referring to case design. And why should they? Just to tittilate the tech pundits' jaded tastes and demands for something different? Witness the large number of would-be competitors trying to mimic (or in the case of Intel) or use the design as a benchmark. Since Apple has locked up the large majority of the CNC production lines to produce the current casing, there will be a time-life for that contract which will be a threshold for any design changes. Apple product development leads from 2-5 years ahead of current categories. With casing remaining as it is - could mean that there is a major design change in the works (like the move from plastic to aluminum). The current designs give them significant advantages across the board - rigidity of the monocoque design, shorter assembly times (parts mount directly to casing, requiring fewer parts), as well as fully recyclable waste stream from the machined aluminum. Moving to another materials stream would require a lot of effort.
If you are going to insist on being an ass, at least demonstrate the intelligence to be a smart one
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If you are going to insist on being an ass, at least demonstrate the intelligence to be a smart one
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post #14 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpy View Post

Not a single machine in their mac line has gotten a physical revamp in a long time. The most recent redesign was the Macbook Air in Oct 2010, more than 15 months ago. Everything else (MBP, iMac, etc) is even older. I think the predicted redesign of their computers this year will give an uptick of sales and interest.

Well said. It's nice to read a quote from a fellow Mac consumer rather than all the shareholders on here who don't really give a damn about the products, they just want to make sure the share price doesn't fall. This site should be called AppleShareholder rather than AppleInsider. I couldn't give a shit about the share price. I just want a steady stream of new products instead of the same minor cosmetic changes and spec bumps year after year on the Mac range.
post #15 of 22
I am mildly disappointed in Wall Street too, with all of the imaginary numbers that they pull out of their asses.

I don't own any Apple stock, and it wouldn't make a difference to me if the shares dropped 25% tomorrow. A lot of those people who hold Apple stock don't care about Apple. They just care about meeting some imaginary, made up numbers each quarter that they pull out of their asses.

And they blame Apple when Apple doesn't meet the numbers that they pull out of their asses. I blame the dumbasses who made bad predictions, not Apple.
post #16 of 22
Sometimes the irony is so thick you'd need a hacksaw to cut it.
Please don't be insane.
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Please don't be insane.
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post #17 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun, UK View Post

Well said. It's nice to read a quote from a fellow Mac consumer rather than all the shareholders on here who don't really give a damn about the products, they just want to make sure the share price doesn't fall. This site should be called AppleShareholder rather than AppleInsider. I couldn't give a shit about the share price. I just want a steady stream of new products instead of the same minor cosmetic changes and spec bumps year after year on the Mac range.

Has it occurred to you that the share price and great products might actually be closely related in the case of Apple?
Use duckduckgo.com with Safari, not Google Search
Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
Reply
Use duckduckgo.com with Safari, not Google Search
Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
Reply
post #18 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by shompa View Post

Historically Apple share have gone up until the quality report.

"Experts" always find something that is disappointing with Apple. Almost overtime its something that are totally wrong. Last year it was Ipad disappointment. They did not tell that the number was affected by the Ipad1 to 2 transformation.

Same thing Q3 last year. Iphone disappointment. Nothing about the Iphone4 to S transformation. I also love how they harped that Apple missed Wall street when Apples profit only went up 54%.

Analytics have now seeded 3 stories that they can play up as disappointing:
1) The most insane analytics belive Apple sold 36 million phones. When Apple "only" sells 30-31 million its a "huge" disappointment
2) Ipad2 numbers. Many analytics have said it will be 13+ million. It will come in a couple of million short. "Kindle Fire is killing Ipad"
3) And now the Mac sales numbers. "Apple's luster is gone. No one bought macs during the holidays.

I predict that the shares will fall after the report and that they will bounce back starting about 3 weeks before the Ipad3 introduction. After the Ipad3 intro, the shares will fall again and then start to rise before Q1 report. After Q1 it will go down until 3 weeks before the next Apple event.

Yep, that's about it! LOL

It is the 'apple inverse law of share value' at work .
Use duckduckgo.com with Safari, not Google Search
Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
Reply
Use duckduckgo.com with Safari, not Google Search
Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
Reply
post #19 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Has it occurred to you that the share price and great products might actually be closely related in the case of Apple?

Nope. Honestly can't think of a single Apple product that we wouldn't have today if the share price was lower. Can you?

In fact it's quite the opposite. SJ ran Apple very much like a Japanese company with the focus on long term developments instead of short term profits. Most US companies are managed for the maximisation of quarterly earnings so the share price keeps going up and the directors get big fat bonuses. No long term strategic thinking. I know coz I've worked in senior management positions for both global US and Japanese IT companies.

Apple is different - just look at Tim Cook. He doesn't get his share bonus for another 5 and 10 years. It's all about long term strategic thinking and steady sustainable growth for the long term not so a load of greedy bankers can make a fast buck.
post #20 of 22
If the average price tag of each of those Macs sold in the December Quarter was $1,000 (which is probably low), then that would translate to nearly 50 billion dollars in sales.

That does not include iPad, iPhone, iPod touch, Apple TV, AirPort, Software, Apps, iTunes, iBooks, eCards, etc.

No matter how I look at it, I can hardly say that those numbers are soft or disappointing. Just another record-breaking quarter at Apple...
post #21 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun, UK View Post

Nope. Honestly can't think of a single Apple product that we wouldn't have today if the share price was lower. Can you?

In fact it's quite the opposite. SJ ran Apple very much like a Japanese company with the focus on long term developments instead of short term profits. Most US companies are managed for the maximisation of quarterly earnings so the share price keeps going up and the directors get big fat bonuses. No long term strategic thinking. I know coz I've worked in senior management positions for both global US and Japanese IT companies.

Apple is different - just look at Tim Cook. He doesn't get his share bonus for another 5 and 10 years. It's all about long term strategic thinking and steady sustainable growth for the long term not so a load of greedy bankers can make a fast buck.

You are digressing from your initial attack. This is simply my rebuttal to you slamming those of us that are stock holders as well as Apple enthusiast in your earlier post, in my case for over 30 years. You are over thinking this. Apple is doing well because they make great products, doing well increases the company's bottom line. That makes the company worth more. If you like Apple products as much as I do, why not also buy a few Apple shares! Why decry us share holders, we funded the success due to our faith in Apple? In my case even when times were tough.
Use duckduckgo.com with Safari, not Google Search
Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
Reply
Use duckduckgo.com with Safari, not Google Search
Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
Reply
post #22 of 22
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

You are digressing from your initial attack. This is simply my rebuttal to you slamming those of us that are stock holders as well as Apple enthusiast in your earlier post, in my case for over 30 years. You are over thinking this. Apple is doing well because they make great products, doing well increases the company's bottom line. That makes the company worth more. If you like Apple products as much as I do, why not also buy a few Apple shares! Why decry us share holders, we funded the success due to our faith in Apple? In my case even when times were tough.

Good point well made. I'm not against Apple Shareholders and I don't mean to offend anyone. I'm just not that interested in the share price. I'm interested in the products. When you read comments like "ditch the Mac Pro it doesn't make enough money" it makes me sad because those people are not genuine Apple fans, they are only interested in making a few quid on the share price. I've never owned any shares - it's not that common in the UK. I would rather show my support by continuing to buy their great products instead.
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