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Facebook IPO filing expected within weeks, could reach $100B valuation

post #1 of 68
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Facebook is making plans to file papers for an initial public offering as early as next week with a valuation that is expected to range between $75 and $100 billion, a new report claims.

After putting off an IPO for years, the world's largest social networking website is nearly ready to submit its papers, people familiar with the matter revealed to The Wall Street Journal. The deal will likely raise as much as $10 billion dollars for the company, sources added.

Facebook is reportedly close to picking investment bank Morgan Stanley to arrange the deal as the "lead-left," the title reserved for the bank that takes the lead in a financial transaction, such as an IPO. That would come as a blow to Goldman Sachs, which had originally been favored for the role. Sources did say, however, that Goldman would likely play a significant role alongside its rival.

According to the report's sources, Facebook may file documents with the Securities and Exchange Commission as soon as next Wednesday, though they noted that company executives may also wait to file until a few weeks later.

The IPO is expected to take place between April and June. If Facebook does manage to raise $10 billion on the deal, that would give it the fourth-largest IPO for a U.S. company, behind Visa, General Motors and AT&T Wireless. The company would also supplant Google as the biggest U.S. internet offering. The search giant, which has come into increasing competition against Facebook, raised $1.9 billion when it went public in 2004.

With a $100 billion valuation, Facebook would be worth almost one-fourth of Apple's current market capitalization of $417 billion. By comparison, Google was worth $188 billion as of the close of market on Friday.

Facebook is believed to have managed $3.8 billion in revenue last year, according to research firm eMarketer. While the company's revenues might not yet reflect those of a $100 billion company, investors are likely to place a high value on the fact that the website has become a household name with its more than 800 million users, 500 million of which visit the site daily.

Tipsters said Facebook CEO and founder Mark Zuckerberg, who was coached by late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs, put off an IPO because of concern that it would adversely affect the company's culture. A former Facebook employee revealed last year that Zuckerberg had modeled his "aggressive" early management style after Jobs.

Facebook eventually ran up against a government regulation that would require the company to publicly disclose its financial information once it had more than 500 shareholders. As such, Zuckerberg reportedly decided that an IPO was a better option than releasing financial information while remaining private.

The IPO will take place within a difficult economic climate, but analysts expect it to attract plenty of interest.

"The excitement around Facebook is still enormous," Max Wolff, an analyst at GreenCrest Capital who specializes in researching companies going public, told the Journal.

Peter Falvey, co-head of the technology banking group at Morgan Keegan & Co., admitted that the recent IPO environment "hasn't been particularly strong," but he noted that, with "the recent stock market strength and maybe some green shoots in the economy, there could be a fortuitous window for Facebook."

Apple and Facebook have maintained a delicate friendship in recent years. Though a Facebook app was one of the first applications on the App Store when it launched in 2008, an official iPad version didn't arrive until a year and a half after Apple released its touchscreen tablet. Jobs said in 2010 that Facebook had demanded "onerous terms" for compatibility with Apple's Ping social music discovery service. According to one report, talks between the two companies went on for 18 months before eventually breaking down.
post #2 of 68
I admit, I use FB all the time. But I can't imagine it being worth a quarter as much as Apple!
...Of course, I thought Google was overvalued after its IPO, so I suppose I should just shut it...
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post #3 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

I admit, I use FB all the time. But I can't imagine it being worth a quarter as much as Apple!
...Of course, I thought Google was overvalued after its IPO, so I suppose I should just shut it...

I'm with you. I don't see how some of these companies get their valuation when they don't produce anything except more ways to sell our information.

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post #4 of 68
Remove Zuck's appreciation for and having some level of friendship with Jobs and Apple on some level wanting to work with Facebook (like most companies)... what the heck does this article have to do with Apple???!!!!! Why is this on an Apple gossip/news site?!!!??
post #5 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by mesomorphicman View Post

Remove Zuck's appreciation for and having some level of friendship with Jobs and Apple on some level wanting to work with Facebook (like most companies)... what the heck does this article have to do with Apple???!!!!! Why is this on an Apple gossip/news site?!!!??

So you're wanting to know what an article has to do with Apple if you remove everything about Apple from the article. What I want to know is why you think your question makes any sense.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #6 of 68
How can I profit from this?
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #7 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

How can I profit from this?

Be an employee with options or a founder. Otherwise, Facebook IPO is about as safe of investment as Netscape, AOL, LinkedIn, MySpace, etc.
post #8 of 68
bubble bubble bubble POP!!! They've been on a slow decline since August 2011...
post #9 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

So you're wanting to know what an article has to do with Apple if you remove everything about Apple from the article. What I want to know is why you think your question makes any sense.

Maybe we can use those same guidelines and remove Apple's name from any unpleasant Apple news... Poof! No longer applies to Apple.
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post #10 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

How can I profit from this?

Can you short an IPO?

At least 100x what it should be!
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post #11 of 68
Overvalued.

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post #12 of 68
Boy, just a few more years of constant news items about potential Facebook IPO's and I might even be tempted to believe one of them... no doubt using my 7-inch iPad running Android, because that seems much more likely than an actual Facebook IPO.
post #13 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Can you short an IPO?

At least 100x what it should be!

A short sale is the first thing that comes into mind every time I hear "Facebook IPO."

I toyed with the idea when Zynga went public.

post #14 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by aestival View Post

boy, just a few more years of constant news items about potential facebook ipo's and i might even be tempted to believe one of them... No doubt using my 7-inch ipad running android, because that seems much more likely than an actual facebook ipo.

hah..
post #15 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Can you short an IPO?

At least 100x what it should be!

I agree, watch the stock drop like a rock after a few weeks.

This is what causes bubbles, people investing in companies that don't actually do anything.
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post #16 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post

A short sale is the first thing that comes into mind every time I hear "Facebook IPO."

I toyed with the idea when Zynga went public.


The first question would be when to short Facebook. No doubt the first week or so it will climb.

The second question would be the actual feasibility of shorting something when everyone knows Wall Street is planning the same thing, and you cannot compete with the likes of them in their marked territory. Facebook has most of the hallmarks of a pump 'n dump.
post #17 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I'm with you. I don't see how some of these companies get their valuation when they don't produce anything except more ways to sell our information.

That's what I have always said . FB don't do sh**! You go there, look at pictures and blog. Blah. Now how is that worth 100 billion?
Please.
This is just another bubble.You see it, I see it and when if pops what then? Where are the whistle blowers?
post #18 of 68
Maybe Apple should spend the $100 billion to buy FB for the next leg of growth LOL.
post #19 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by patrickwalker View Post

The first question would be when to short Facebook. No doubt the first week or so it will climb.

The second question would be the actual feasibility of shorting something when everyone knows Wall Street is planning the same thing, and you cannot compete with the likes of them in their marked territory. Facebook has most of the hallmarks of a pump 'n dump.

Well, one would have to watch FB very closely and be ready to short within that first week and particularly the first day.

Zynga opened high, then proceeded to sag throughout the opening day. Anyone shorting Zynga on day one got in at a great moment. I don't think anyone sane really thought Zynga would skyrocket. The Street was ready to short Zynga, anyone could have rode their coattails.

A retail investor may not be able to compete with Wall Street, but one should still be able to get healthy profits from a pump 'n dump, even if you can't maximize yield like a automated trading program.

FB may end up being a highly volatile issue, so going short-term on this equity might be the way to go. Grab your 10-15% every few weeks and get out, the classic Gerald Loeb playbook call.
post #20 of 68
Seems like a risky investment to me. At any moment the government could pass some kind of privacy law and destroy their whole business model.
post #21 of 68
Are you kidding me? 1/4 of AAPL valuation? I'm not saying that FB isnt' worth 100B, but AAPL is clearly worth more.
post #22 of 68
It's amazing how much and how long a stock can be overvalued. Just look at Amazon -- a P/E of 103.
post #23 of 68
Gawd, I wish they'd stop saying 800 million users. There are 800 million ACCOUNTS! A big difference.
I know people on FB that have three, four accounts, even more.......
post #24 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I agree, watch the stock drop like a rock after a few weeks.

This is what causes bubbles, people investing in companies that don't actually do anything.


How do you buy into an IPO? I have an Ameritrade account - will I be able to buy through that?
post #25 of 68
Another over valued .com bubble company.

A 4 billion revenue company should have an valuation between 4 billion to 16 depending on growth and profit.

Facebook wants 8 times as much.

Just like Pandora, NetFlix and Amazon.
All companies that have huge market share/grows fast and make no money.

Somehow WallStreet forgets the .com bubble. Growth that cost profit is stupid,still they reward Amazon with a 10 times higher valuation then Apple since Amazon releases a tablet that looses money for them.

Keep away from Facebook at that valuation.
post #26 of 68
I think many of you are underestimating the value of Facebook just because they don't release shiny products...

There are literary millions upon millions of people around the globe that use facebook for countless hours everyday of the week.

No, they don't check out apple forums, tech news websites, reddit, gmail, use project management software, the cloud etc... no... these people use a huge percentage of their internet time on Facebook. This alone is worth vast sums of money, but there is more to it than that.

The greatest things of value on earth (and ready to exploit) are not gadgets or tech, but the basic fundamentals of life - food, sex and communication. And here we have this single company that pretty much dominate the third point.
post #27 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by jasonfj View Post

How do you buy into an IPO? I have an Ameritrade account - will I be able to buy through that?

It's an IPO not a DPO so it's not something you can just buy like that ... Here is some info:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering
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post #28 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

So you're wanting to know what an article has to do with Apple if you remove everything about Apple from the article. What I want to know is why you think your question makes any sense.

His question makes perfect sense. This not Apple news in any way whatsoever.

Facebook is very popular with teens, pre-teens and degenerates. I'm certain their news sites will cover this adequately.
post #29 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ireland View Post

How can I profit from this?

Buy low, sell high.
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post #30 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter236 View Post

Maybe Apple should spend the $100 billion to buy FB for the next leg of growth LOL.

Though sarcastic, this maybe closer to the truth then you think. Though more about integration then growth. I would absolutely expect Apple to be (at least) a major FB shareholder if this IPO goes through.
post #31 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by mgsarch View Post

His question makes perfect sense. This not Apple news in any way whatsoever.

Facebook is very popular with teens, pre-teens and degenerates. I'm certain their news sites will cover this adequately.

1) Is your misplaced bias only against Facebook or are you against AI also reporting on other partners an competitors of Apple?

2) "...teens, pre-teens, and degenerates...", eh?! you're worse than the people in AnandTech that bitch about that site reporting on Apple products because Apple only makes "toys" not real smartphones or PCs.

3) If the subject of the article doesn't interest you you shouldn't read past the title. Taking the time to bitch n the article's forum thread about the article not appealing to you just makes you sound like an ass.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #32 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I'm with you. I don't see how some of these companies get their valuation when they don't produce anything except more ways to sell our information.

That's it. The product they produce is, well, you.
post #33 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by shompa View Post

Another over valued .com bubble company.

A 4 billion revenue company should have an valuation between 4 billion to 16 depending on growth and profit.

Facebook wants 8 times as much.

Just like Pandora, NetFlix and Amazon.
All companies that have huge market share/grows fast and make no money.

Somehow WallStreet forgets the .com bubble. Growth that cost profit is stupid,still they reward Amazon with a 10 times higher valuation then Apple since Amazon releases a tablet that looses money for them.

Keep away from Facebook at that valuation.

Please stop commenting on things you don't understand.

There is absolutely no simple formula that allows you to reach the bolded conclusion.

For example, Kodak's revenues last year were around $7,000 million. Their market cap is under $100 M. OTOH, a company earning enormous profits with strong share growth could easily be worth 10 times revenues - or more.

I agree that AMZN is grossly overvalued, but not because of your formula. In fact, AMZN is trading for about 2.5 to 3 times revenues - so it's well within the range that you consider to be OK. The problem with AMZN's share price is that it's 100 times earnings (earnings tend to be low on distribution businesses). Using your simple formula, AMZN is priced just about right.

Just like anything else, a company is worth what someone will pay for it. That decision is based on profitability, growth, revenues, assets, market position, and many, many other factors. And each of those factors is considered both historically and for the future. Using a simple "1 to 4 times revenues" ratio is extremely bad advice.
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post #34 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

So you're wanting to know what an article has to do with Apple if you remove everything about Apple from the article. What I want to know is why you think your question makes any sense.

Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Maybe we can use those same guidelines and remove Apple's name from any unpleasant Apple news... Poof! No longer applies to Apple.

So, I guess by your superior and smart-as* logic... AppleInsider should post all news from every company who has any relation to Apple. All Google news, every company who makes 3rd party iPhone - iPad - Mac accessories (every case and speaker maker, etc.), when Samsung or someone launches a new product or has some new stock news, all Twitter news, every company CEO who liked or knew Steve Jobs should have their company news posted here, all Dell, MS and HP news even if it has no relation to Apple. Microsoft, EA Sports and numerous others have news every day, they should put all that here too, they have a connection to Apple. I got it now... any slight connection to Apple validates their story going here, got'cha.

If not, then tell me how this belong here... Zucker liked Jobs and Apple used Ping in place of Facebook... got'cha, that's certainly enough. Oh and forgive me for having an opinion outside of yours, goodness forbid.
post #35 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feynman View Post

That's it. The product they produce is, well, you.

That's what most people don't see. The users of Facebook, Google, etc. aren't the customers, they're the product. Our interests, searches, or favorites are all sold to companies that pay Facebook or Google for that information. Click that you like Amazon on Facebook, suddenly you see a lot of Amazon ads on your Facebook page. Search for car parts on Google, Napa ads appear in your Google search results.

Facebook's IPO is selling stock in something you already own: you.
post #36 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feynman View Post

That's it. The product they produce is, well, you.

Facebook has 800 million members. Let's round up to 1 billion to make the math simple and account for growth. Let's also ignore the growth ceiling that would be every man, women and child on this planet minus the ones the too young, too old, too sick, or too poor to be a Facebook customer. That's still each customer being worth $100 to Facebook. I just don't see that kind of per capita valuation for a company that collects info.

Then there is the uniqueness of Facebook. There really isn't any. There is nothing keeping Facebook from falling out of favour like MySpace. That's not to say it will fall but there is no permeance in the way there is with companies where we're the customer not the product. There is something tangible holding me to other products. The other unique thing about Facebook and other social networking sites is that they are based on the product choosing to sell itself instead of the customer choosing to buy the product. Think about that. To me that makes Facebook a very risky endeavor for its investors. I think the bubble analogy works well here.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #37 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by mesomorphicman View Post

So, I guess by your superior and smart-as* logic... AppleInsider should post all news from every company who has any relation to Apple.

AppleInsider is a for-profit company who should report on all news that they think their readers will be interested in which in turn produce page hits and ad-clicks that generation profit. You wanting this all or nothing reporting sounds more than a little crazy but it could just be some odd projection of your OCD onto AI's business model. Again, if the subject in the title of the article doesn't interest you then don't read the fucking article. <= Superior logic.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #38 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by mesomorphicman View Post

So, I guess by your superior and smart-as* logic... AppleInsider should post all news from every company who has any relation to Apple. All Google news, every company who makes 3rd party iPhone - iPad - Mac accessories (every case and speaker maker, etc.), when Samsung or someone launches a new product or has some new stock news, all Twitter news, every company CEO who liked or knew Steve Jobs should have their company news posted here, all Dell, MS and HP news even if it has no relation to Apple. Microsoft, EA Sports and numerous others have news every day, they should put all that here too, they have a connection to Apple. I got it now... any slight connection to Apple validates their story going here, got'cha.

If not, then tell me how this belong here... Zucker liked Jobs and Apple used Ping in place of Facebook... got'cha, that's certainly enough. Oh and forgive me for having an opinion outside of yours, goodness forbid.

Well, I have to give that much to you... at least you got it.
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post #39 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

1)
3) If the subject of the article doesn't interest you you shouldn't read past the title. Taking the time to bitch n the article's forum thread about the article not appealing to you just makes you sound like an ass.

Who's the ass... the person taking time to "bitch" about the article or the person who takes time to "bitch" about the person who gave their opinion? It's my time to decide how I want to use it, but you took time from your life also to complain about how I spend my time, so to me that makes you the ass... you got sucked into my thought process. No one made you comment on my thought. Maybe you should follow your own advice and "read past" the comments that don't appeal to you. Or will you take more time from your life to comment further about my use of free speech rights... inquiring minds want to know? To quote O'shea Jackson - "Who's The Mack?"
post #40 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by mesomorphicman View Post

Who's the ass... the person taking time to "bitch" about the article or the person who takes time to "bitch" about the person who gave their opinion? It's my time to decide how I want to use it, but you took time from your life also to complain about how I spend my time, so to me that makes you the ass... you got sucked into my thought process. No one made you comment on my thought. Maybe you should follow your own advice and "read past" the comments that don't appeal to you. Or will you take more time from your life to comment further about my use of free speech rights... inquiring minds want to know? To quote O'shea Jackson - "Who's The Mack?"

Yes, I did choose to comment on your post but not once did I say that your post shouldn't be allowed. I didn't bitch about you choosing to post, I merely pointed out the idiocy of your comment. Personally I would prefer you to post more stupid comments so I can continue to hone my debating skills by decimating your arguments but I do ask that you make it a little more challenging in the future.

Your comment is hypocritical because you choose to post about a topic that you feel isn't worth commenting on. I've made no such claim. Also, by commenting you are reinforcing AI's decision to generate more articles that indirectly refer to or concern Apple. If you really want to make a point you need to simply not read nor reply to AI articles that you feel aren't worth of being on this site. It's that simple. <= Superior logic.


PS: It's asses all the way down.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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