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Emerging markets expected to propel tablet market to 383 million units in 2017

post #1 of 24
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A new analysis projects worldwide tablet shipments to grow to 383.3 million in 2017 as the portion of tablets purchased by customers emerging markets increases.

Research group NPD published data on Monday (via TechCrunch) supporting its belief that the emerging market will grow from a 36 percent share of worldwide tablet shipments in 2011 to 46 percent in 2017.

"The emerging market opportunity for tablets has been flying under the radar mainly because the device brands aren’t household names and there are concerns regarding the sustainability of the market," said NPD Senior Analyst Richard Shim.

Shim went on to say that "some of the better known brands" have begun investing in developing regions. "We expect this to not only continue, but to flourish as competition improves,” he continued.

NPD said China and Asia Pacific currently have the highest tablet penetration rates among emerging markets, though Brazil, India and Russia are also expected to experience significant growth. Apple is expected to contribute strongly tablet sales with its iPad, but, according to the firm, low-end pricing will be crucial to opening up growth in those regions. As such, budget tablet makers may seize an opportunity to gain market share in developing nations.




Assuming that NPD's estimates are correct, the global tablet market is set to surpass the current size of the PC market in the next five years. Gartner estimated earlier this month that worldwide PC shipments last year total 353 million, up just 0.5 percent from 2010. The fourth quarter was a particularly difficult quarter for the PC market, as worldwide shipments declined 1.4 percent, while U.S. shipments fell 6 percent year over year.

A separate analysis from Canalys on Monday showed that the PC market experienced a quarterly gain when the iPad was counted and a loss without it. Apple's combined 15.4 million iPads and 5.2 million Macs were estimated to account for 17 percent of worldwide PC shipments in the December quarter.

Improvements to screen resolution and processor performance are also expected to drive rapid growth in the tablet platform, especially in developed markets. NPD believes tablets with pixel densities of between 250ppi to 300ppi will make up roughly 30 percent of shipments by 2017. As tablet makers increase specifications for their devices, the market will likely split into "premium" and "value" category tablets.

Apple is widely believed to be readying a third-generation iPad with a pixel density of 254ppi. CEO Tim Cook said last week during a quarterly earnings call that he already views "limited function" tablets such as Amazon's Kindle Fire as being in a different category from the iPad.
post #2 of 24
In other words, selling plastic junk to people in loin-cloths.
post #3 of 24
Wow, that's some extrapolation, predicting sales all the way out to 2017, when the device in question has only existed for 2 years.

However I hope it's true, that tablets being cheaper than PCs will result in more people in developing countries having access to IT. More information and education has to be a good thing for humanity. Just as long as the local dictator is not allowed to control the content they see.

But I wonder if maybe mobile phones will be more of a vector in those countries.
post #4 of 24
For the emerging markets Apple is already prototyping the iAbacus.

Already the iPad is so easy to use, they are popular in the primate house.

post #5 of 24
What price will the low end iPad be in 2017?

In 2012 the low end iPad will be $399. Imagine even at $299 it would sell like a demon. At $249 who wouldn't get one?

Gooooo AAPL!
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #6 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by res08hao View Post

In other words, selling plastic junk to people in loin-cloths.

WE HAVE SHIRTS, DARNIT! Of course, counterfeit Nike and what not, but still)
post #7 of 24
What's the point in predicting anything for more than a year ahead? Do people get paid for plotting these straight lines? If so, I'd like one of these jobs, to do from my phone while sitting on the can...
post #8 of 24
The PC market shrank. But that is including mac sales. Remove mac sales and PC went down almost 9% Q4 2011.

AMD/Intel can continue to play and blame lacking hard drives. The truth is that we are seeing the PostPC world. The Ipad2 is powerful enough of all people who wants to surf/pay bills. imagine this year with 3-4 times faster iPads. Hook up a big screen + BT keyboard and you have a computer setup. That is the future.

Intel have gone lazy. 2006-2011 they increased speeds a bit over 100%. 2006-2011 ARM increased their speeds 17 times.

Raw power Intel will continue to lead against most CPUs, but ARM is fast enough starting this year with quod core ARM15 CPUs. Stuff that needs extreme CPU power can be converted to use NOVA SIMD/Apple visual processor and GPU.
post #9 of 24
Surely there can't be this level of demand for what are effectively just jumped up iPod Touch's??



Edit - this was meant to be a sarcastic comment!
post #10 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdyB View Post

Surely there can't be this level of demand for what are effectively just jumped up iPod Touch's??


Oh, I didn't realize this prediction featured iPad 1
post #11 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdyB View Post

Surely there can't be this level of demand for what are effectively just jumped up iPod Touch's??


If you think an iPad2 is just a jumped up iPod Touch ... you need a reality fix.
Second, iPad2 is a personal device, and it will grow in demand so that every one wants one, not just one per family. Get it.
post #12 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by madhatter61 View Post

...
Second, iPad2 is a personal device, and it will grow in demand so that every one wants one, not just one per family. Get it.

One per bathroom should suffice
post #13 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post


However I hope it's true, that tablets being cheaper than PCs



As of now, many many different PCs are available for less than $500. So I'm not sure that "tablets" are cheaper. Only certain tablets are cheaper than PCs. Full laptops are available starting at $269.
post #14 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by madhatter61 View Post

If you think an iPad2 is just a jumped up iPod Touch ... you need a reality fix.
Second, iPad2 is a personal device, and it will grow in demand so that every one wants one, not just one per family. Get it.

I thought the smiley after the comment would have indicated sarcasm - I was obviously wrong - apologies.

Re the iPad2, I love mine to bits - it has taken the place of my Macbook 80% of the time.
post #15 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by I am a Zither Zather Zuzz View Post

As of now, many many different PCs are available for less than $500. So I'm not sure that "tablets" are cheaper. Only certain tablets are cheaper than PCs. Full laptops are available starting at $269.

Exactly. And that's not just the lowest range; an 11.6'' Sony Vaio is less than $500 on Amazon.
post #16 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

Wow, that's some extrapolation, predicting sales all the way out to 2017, when the device in question has only existed for 2 years.

Right?! And they are predicting farther out than the iPhone has been on the market. There is no way they can have a sound model for this projection and it's dumb that they came to a very specific 383 million instead of simply saying 350, 375, 400 million, or used a more realistic upper and lower projection limit values.

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

 

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post #17 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by I am a Zither Zather Zuzz View Post

As of now, many many different PCs are available for less than $500. So I'm not sure that "tablets" are cheaper. Only certain tablets are cheaper than PCs. Full laptops are available starting at $269.

There are plenty of tablets under all those prices, with many going for under $100 on Amazon. They aren't good tablets but they are cheap. If you look at the market the premium tablet, the iPad, starts at $499 and the premium notebooks, the MBA and MBP, start at $999 and $1,299, respectively.

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

 

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post #18 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

There are plenty of tablets under all those prices, with many going for under $100 on Amazon. They aren't good tablets but they are cheap. If you look at the market the premium tablet, the iPad, starts at $499 and the premium notebooks, the MBA and MBP, start at $999 and $1,299, respectively.

What are the relative component prices for tablets vs laptops?

There seems to be a lot more stuff included with a cheap laptop. That makes it seem like they should cost more to produce.

But big touchscreens are expensive, aren't they?

So, in theory, which should be cheaper to manufacture?

I realize that manufacturing costs are only tangentially related to selling prices.
post #19 of 24
Apple will be the first company to surpass $1 trillion in annual revenue.

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post #20 of 24
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Originally Posted by jd_in_sb View Post

Apple will be the first company to surpass $1 trillion in annual revenue.

I like you enthisiasm, and I think you are joking.

Apple current revenue is about 108 Billion

$24.01B $32.48B $42.6B $65.07B $108.6B (last 5 years) x4 multiple

that just over 4 times what it was in 2007

I don't think it is realistic to think that it could even get to 200B in another 5 years, 7 years at least not without at least 2-3 new catogories of device disrupting a few more industries and even then it is mute imho

I would think that they would be selling maybe 150M iPads in 2017 , that will translate into
another 26B revenue

now iPhone - even if we project 37m phones per quarter => 148M yr
thats about 60B revenue , add on macs and stores will get us to about 150B,

Now Apple HDTV, I imagine a TV will cost several $1000 each, I don't think they will be selling too many. Its just a hobby right. Lets be really silly and project them selling say I dunno a few million the first year 2012, ramping up to say 40M by 2017, and each set they make $500 on each one

thats only another $2OB. total so far: Revenue somewhere in the region of 170-180 B in five years
and thats just so over optimistic, everything has to go right. so I think its going to take Apple another 7 years to double its revenue at least, probably 10 years. The only way I think they can ever get to 1 Trillion is to buy/merge up a couple of major companies and totally dominate those markets. They have their eyes set on publishing and TV. I just can't see much esle out there except maybe a satellite co, news? they would need to buy something like Amazon! hey they could buy Facebook on its IPO! NOT what about Netflix?

Hey if they get to 160B by 2017 I think the share price will be somewhere like 700-800, which isn't shabby which means the shares I bought at $353 last year will have almost doubled. That 2 bagger is what goes a significant way to what I need so I can get my Portfolioto to my goal of 12% average returns by 2022 when I plan to retire.

nice try though
post #21 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul94544 View Post

I like you enthisiasm, and I think you are joking.

Apple current revenue is about 108 Billion

$24.01B $32.48B $42.6B $65.07B $108.6B (last 5 years) x4 multiple

that just over 4 times what it was in 2007

I don't think it is realistic to think that it could even get to 200B in another 5 years, 7 years at least not without at least 2-3 new catogories of device disrupting a few more industries and even then it is mute imho

I would think that they would be selling maybe 150M iPads in 2017 , that will translate into
another 26B revenue

now iPhone - even if we project 37m phones per quarter => 148M yr
thats about 60B revenue , add on macs and stores will get us to about 150B,

Now Apple HDTV, I imagine a TV will cost several $1000 each, I don't think they will be selling too many. Its just a hobby right. Lets be really silly and project them selling say I dunno a few million the first year 2012, ramping up to say 40M by 2017, and each set they make $500 on each one

thats only another $2OB. total so far: Revenue somewhere in the region of 170-180 B in five years
and thats just so over optimistic, everything has to go right. so I think its going to take Apple another 7 years to double its revenue at least, probably 10 years. The only way I think they can ever get to 1 Trillion is to buy/merge up a couple of major companies and totally dominate those markets. They have their eyes set on publishing and TV. I just can't see much esle out there except maybe a satellite co, news? they would need to buy something like Amazon! hey they could buy Facebook on its IPO! NOT what about Netflix?

Hey if they get to 160B by 2017 I think the share price will be somewhere like 700-800, which isn't shabby which means the shares I bought at $353 last year will have almost doubled. That 2 bagger is what goes a significant way to what I need so I can get my Portfolioto to my goal of 12% average returns by 2022 when I plan to retire.

nice try though

I didn't say the $1 trillion revenue target would be achieved in 5 years. But I do believe it will happen eventually. The iPad has a chance to become the world-wide defacto standard personal computer for the masses.

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post #22 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul94544 View Post

I like you enthisiasm, and I think you are joking.

Hey if they get to 160B by 2017 I think the share price will be somewhere like 700-800, which isn't shabby which means the shares I bought at $353 last year will have almost doubled. That 2 bagger is what goes a significant way to what I need so I can get my Portfolioto to my goal of 12% average returns by 2022 when I plan to retire.

nice try though

Don't forget inflation
post #23 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

Wow, that's some extrapolation, predicting sales all the way out to 2017, when the device in question has only existed for 2 years.

I agree. That's bold extrapolation, but it's plausible. If true, that probably means Apple selling about 300 million iPads in 2017.
Mac user since August 1983.
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Mac user since August 1983.
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post #24 of 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pendergast View Post

Don't forget inflation

is running at very low levels right now, and figuring in that electronics has been dropping in real price terms for years I wouldn't concern myself with that.

Is that all you can come up with. I must have a done a pretty good job eh lol
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