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Amazon earnings miss Street estimates, Kindle sales nearly triple - Page 4

post #121 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

I couldn't disagree more.

Further, if markets are 'irrational', what are you doing there?

Balderdash. In these stock threads we are constantly seeing people post about how a stock "should" be worth this or that, and how they can't understand why it's not worth more or less than the current price. They are expecting the markets to follow some sort of clear set of rules with predicable outcomes. In fact the markets are a function of mass behavior, which is inherently emotional, not rational. I presume you've heard about the classic polar driving forces behind the markets: fear and greed. Good luck rationalizing ether one. If you ever could, you'd be the first. Your Nobel Prize awaits.

I am in the market because I don't worry about its inherent irrationality. Maybe the difference between you and I is, I don't try to pretend that it is rational.

Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

People are only doing to you what you often do unto others.

Oh, sure. Fine excuse.
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post #122 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

People are only doing to you what you often do unto others.

The Doctor and I are actually in a state of amicable détente... but I do rib him on occasion.
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post #123 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Yeah, that's why the stock plummeted.

I'm fascinated by those who believe the effectiveness of the Fire strategy can be assessed so quickly. And the stock did not *plummet*.
post #124 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by stelligent View Post

I'm fascinated by those who believe the effectiveness of the Fire strategy can be assessed so quickly. And the stock did not *plummet*.

If the action we saw today on AMZN continues in the same trend... then, yes, it plummeted.
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post #125 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

They only lose $50 or so when you include their R&D and marketing costs.

To paraphrase Frank Perdue's old TV chicken commercials, "Costs is costs."

Quote:
Originally Posted by thataveragejoe View Post

What puzzles me is why Amazon went so aggressive from the gate. If they had gone with even 249, they would have built a small profit and probably made at least 3/4 of the same sales anyway, and cut it to 199 in 6 months when the costs come down. Oh well, not my problem.

You've been mind-reading, well, my mind at least...

Quote:
Originally Posted by kresh View Post

Why? The Kindle Fire is not what compressed margins this quarter. Amazon's margins have been suppressed for the past few quarters due to the huge spending on physical warehouse construction, cloud infrastructure build-out, video on demand build-out, and feature discounts. Amazon continued this trend with $500 billion USD in infrastructure expenditures..

Quote:
Originally Posted by malax View Post

Wow. You could buy a war in Iraq (maybe 2) for that kinda money.

We both picked up on those deep Amazon pockets! However, FTR, from what I've read, you could only buy about half of the Iraq war costs for that - not including all the VA and other vet benefits that will pile up over coming decades. The Civil War (1860's for the historically challenged) was still costing the US government money well into the 20th Century, and WWII (1940's) continues to be a source of payouts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Oak View Post

Last, why do they continue to hide Kindle sales? If I was long, I would be pretty upset that they are hiding the economics and performance of a product that is fundamental to the prospects of the company. It's bizarre.

My question is how do they get away with this as a public company when this is clearly intended as a key strategic direction for the corp?

Quote:
Originally Posted by slapppy View Post

Yes, enjoy your moment of levity at my expense. Look carefully at these statements from Amazon. By the end of 2012, Amazon will surpass Apple iPad easily. Remember, thats just one company. There are many, many more Android powered Tablets coming in 2012. So, enjoy, revel, celebrate at my expense. By years end, most of you will be questioning why Apple has again failed and relegated back to a small minuscule market share.

1. Repeat yourself in the same paragraph much? (And actually those extraneous electrons are pushed "at AI's expense.")

2. Remind me again of Apple's recent "failing agains" and "miniscule market shares" on any strategic initiative.

a) PC's - 90% share of models $999 and above. And for the last 4-5 years continually increasing US and world share (and on a trajectory to be #1 in the US).

b) MP3 player gizmo thingies - stable over 70% (in a mature and declining market, where nearly all phones now include those functions).

c) Smart phones - #1 profit share (by a country mile), and now blunting Android's share growth in the US and strongly growing sales around the world.

d) Pads/Tablets - over 70% even with competitors selling below costs and a new model just about to debut.

e) Content and apps - number one music seller in the US (tho' video/movie content is still very competitive among a number of companies), far more app revenue per device than any other (read Android) platform and a huge lead in quality tablet apps, while it will take a year or more for a fairly large number of ICS-capable tablets to even be in consumer's hands. And the Mac App store seems a burgeoning success as well.

iAuthor, iBooks2 and the expanded iTunes U are also all looking promising, if not revolutionary.

f) The "cloud" - after a number of false starts I believe I read there are already 85 million iCloud accounts, and iTunes match is going to be my web music repository of choice. (Though SugarSync is my off-line big backup solution and I don't believe any one company's going to dominate "cloud services" for awhile at least.)

g) The living room - still a "hobby" and many viable or potentially viable competitors (X-Box, other boxes, Samsung TV's with modular plug-in firmware updates, etc., etc.) but many signs point to Apple's going "pro" in this arena sometime this year or next (and we'll see how they do).

h) Connectivity - I believe Thunderbolt's still going to be the real deal and that Apple has and will hold the lead. And also that Apple's going to be first to market (or close to first) with 811ac Wi-Fi and the first "all day," "smaller than a bread box" 4G phone.

i) The "Enterprise" - despite dropping server hardware and not giving the MacPro much (if any) love of late (if ever again), iPhones, iPads and MB Airs and Pros are making sizable inroads into big companies, and IT is finally starting to come to terms with them in both general and vertical areas (like Medicine, photography, etc.).

So actually, things have never looked better for Apple in the F500. (Allowing, of course, that MS, IBM, Oracle and others will continue to dominate the "big iron," productivity programs and infrastructure software areas.

j) Brick and mortar - Apple stores have the highest revenue per sq. foot of any retail chain of its size or larger. Period. They're even tourist destinations, and in Hong Kong you have to enter a lottery for a chance to actually buy iPhones at the store.

And the chain is growing steadily around the globe.

i) Disappointments and areas to work on - iAds, Ping, video calls over cell networks, Finder (STILL!), hiccups in video content distribution, and the release of an immature Final Cut redo that is admittedly biting them on the butt. But none of these are utterly strategic (except maybe Final Cut, and the iAd and video distribution spaces are going to be huge for someone[s]), so I'm going to stop there and allow the more critical to "populate this point" with whatever I've missed (or you think I'm missing).

An iPhone, a Leatherman and thou...  ...life is complete.

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An iPhone, a Leatherman and thou...  ...life is complete.

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post #126 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

I presume you've heard about the classic polar driving forces behind the markets: fear and greed. Good luck rationalizing ether one. If you ever could, you'd be the first. Your Nobel Prize awaits.

You presume right.

But, dang, my Nobel prize for operationalizing greed and fear have been usurped, unfortunately: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markowitz (the vertical axis, btw, is 'greed,' and the horizontal axis, 'fear.')

You should read up a bit more about the basics of finance, since you seem to like it (certainly, have very strong views on it -- it's always better when those views are less uninformed).
post #127 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

You presume right.

But, dang, my Nobel prize for operationalizing greed and fear have been usurped, unfortunately: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Markowitz (the vertical axis, btw, is 'greed,' and the horizontal axis, 'fear.')

You should read up a bit more about the basics of finance, since you seem to like it (certainly, have very strong views on it -- it's always better when those views are less uninformed).

Maybe you should read the random articles you link. Markowitz is the godfather of the theory of portfolio diversification as a method of maximizing returns at tolerable risk levels. This is foundational work for contemporaries such as David Swenson (who I know I have mentioned here at least once). I didn't have to google that because I have Swenson's book and he talks about Markowitz.

The axises on the charts are all "risk vs. return." This article says nothing about markets being rational, and the words fear and greed never even appear. (And why would they, since these concepts have nothing to do with his work?)

But I guess it's me who needs to be better informed. Yup, it sure looks that way.
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post #128 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

....Markowitz .... is foundational work for contemporaries such as David Swenson ....

Wow, I am impressed! Even more that you appear to follow his insights in institutional investing to apply to your individual investing when he tells you that might be a foolish thing to attempt. (But there's no law against it).

Btw, it's Swensen. Also, as an aside, Markowitz (84, bless him), and Swensen (60) are hardly 'contemporaries.'

The rest of your points are not even worthy of a serious response.
post #129 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by tundraBuggy View Post

Its not a 5 to 10 dollar loss per unit, its a 50 dollar loss per unit according to posts before the kindle fires introduction. Its so easy to sell a product when your giving it away and furthermore losing money on every sale. Dump the hardware Amazon, stick to what you know.

Just the fact that $50 is a round number should tell you that its made up. It was an analyst figure, and it's already been debunked.

Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

They only lose $50 or so when you include their R&D and marketing costs.


Amazon needs to do something to lock people in once state sales tax agreements start to come into play. They have a couple years to become fully entrenched...

Ordering online retains a convenience factor, especially with cheap/free shipping. The $50 thing was a made up number. You know that, and you can stop trolling with it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kresh View Post

Why? The Kindle Fire is not what compressed margins this quarter. Amazon's margins have been suppressed for the past few quarters due to the huge spending on physical warehouse construction, cloud infrastructure build-out, video on demand build-out, and feature discounts. Amazon continued this trend with $500 billion USD in infrastructure expenditures.

What came out of the blue was Amazon's buy back of 1.6 million shares of stock at over $600 million USD. It has been a while since they bought back stock. Net income would have been over $750 million USD instead of the $177 million USD without the buyback.

I am glad to see the investments to improve their physical and financial positions.

This was hardly a miss. Amazon managed a $0.38 per share earnings, crushing the street's estimste of $0.17.

That's quite a lot of investment.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MacQuest View Post

See Amazon?

Selling many pieces of cheap junk = windows pc's/samsung phones/pretty much all android devices in general such as your Kindle Fizzle... fo' shizzle.

The cherry on top is missing Wall Street estimates.

Did they actually miss Wall Street estimates? All I see here is biased journalism.
post #130 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by hmm View Post

Just the fact that $50 is a round number should tell you that its made up. It was an analyst figure, and it's already been debunked.

Where has it been debunked? And it wasn't $50. It was something close to $50 - and the articles that cited the original source rounded it off.

The original source claimed to have found the cost of all the components and added them up and it came to $250 (roughly). That's a $50 loss - JUST ON THE COMPONENTS. When you add in labor, shipping, packaging, quality, overhead, etc, the total loss would be greater.

Now, I don't know if that's an accurate number, but at least they showed how they derived it - unlike all the people claiming that the loss was only $5 or 10.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hmm View Post

Ordering online retains a convenience factor, especially with cheap/free shipping. The $50 thing was a made up number. You know that, and you can stop trolling with it.

So what's the real number? Please show us something that proves the $50 figure to be wrong.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hmm View Post

Did they actually miss Wall Street estimates? All I see here is biased journalism.

They missed not only Wall Street revenue estimates, but also their own guidance. PLUS, their future guidance was that they might lose money this quarter. So what's the bias?
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
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post #131 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Where has it been debunked? And it wasn't $50. It was something close to $50 - and the articles that cited the original source rounded it off.

The original source claimed to have found the cost of all the components and added them up and it came to $250 (roughly). That's a $50 loss - JUST ON THE COMPONENTS. When you add in labor, shipping, packaging, quality, overhead, etc, the total loss would be greater.

Now, I don't know if that's an accurate number, but at least they showed how they derived it - unlike all the people claiming that the loss was only $5 or 10.

So what's the real number? Please show us something that proves the $50 figure to be wrong.

I don't know if the $50 figure is right or wrong for sure. But if it was arrived at using the simple arithmetic you've just outlined then I'd strongly bet that it is wrong. It's not a simple calculation you can put together because you're not factoring in the volume discounts Amazon will be getting from suppliers for a start. People can guess and estimate, as they do with Apple products too, but usually even "expert analysts" are way off base with these projections. Apple demonstrated that perfectly last week when they announced their quarterly results and another solid increase in margins.

I say there's about 0.0% chance of Amazon taking a 25% loss on every Kindle sold.
post #132 of 132
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Wow, I am impressed! Even more that you appear to follow his insights in institutional investing to apply to your individual investing when he tells you that might be a foolish thing to attempt. (But there's no law against it).

Btw, it's Swensen. Also, as an aside, Markowitz (84, bless him), and Swensen (60) are hardly 'contemporaries.'

The rest of your points are not even worthy of a serious response.

Because you don't want to admit that you either misread or deliberately misrepresented the work you cited.

His insights apply to investing generally, but the key point that apparently completely eludes you is that they have nothing whatsoever to do with the argument you were trying to make. They have nothing to do with the rationality of markets. They have nothing to do with fear-greed forces.

Contemporary, meaning in the current day. Dictionary definition.

I humbly apologize for the typo. Now it's your turn to apologize for being wrong. I have a feeling that the earth's crust will cool sooner.
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