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Apple seen taking 5% of HDTV market, earning $17B in revenue

post #1 of 125
Thread Starter 
If Apple were to offer high-definition television sets with an average selling price of $1,500, one Wall Street analyst believes the company could capture 5 percent of the market and earn $17 billion in revenue.

Ben A. Reitzes with Barclays Capital calculates that the LCD market will reach about 230 million units in calendar year 2012. He suggested that Apple could, over time, capture 5 percent of that market and earn $17 billion in revenue, which would be almost 10 percent of his fiscal 2013 estimate of $183.1 billion for the company.

With assumed gross margins of around 40 percent on a full-fledged Apple television set, he sees the company gaining about $5.40 earnings per share, or about 11 percent of his fiscal 2013 EPS estimate of $48.46.

"Apple's eventual television could be so much more than a TV — including gaming, video, communication, content delivery, apps, computing and all the capabilities of the current Apple TV — it is not really fair to compare it to products already available on the market," Reitzes wrote.

His note to investors was issued soon after a Best Buy survey polled customers for their thoughts on a hypothetical Apple television set. The speculative survey questions described a 1080p LED flat panel display offering connectivity with iCloud and the ability to use an iPhone or iPad as a remote control for $1,499.

Reitzes is confident that the living room is Apple's next major target in the consumer electronics space, but he's not sold on the rumored television set launching in 2012. This year, he believes Apple will continue to focus on its next generations of iPads and iPhones.

Instead, he thinks Apple is more likely to launch a television set in fiscal 2013. Apple's next fiscal year begins in October.

"It appears more and more likely that the company is actively engaging partners about a potential device and content," he said. "If Apple were to sell a TV, we continue to believe its margins and pricing could be industry leading given its vertical integration with content. We believe that Siri could be used as a groundbreaking interface for TV,which could be used as a content hub — glued together by iOS and iOS devices."




The note from Reitzes also comes on the heels of a rumor from The Globe and Mail, which received information from an anonymous source on Monday that Canadian telecommunications companies Rogers and Bell Canada allegedly have an early version of the Apple television set in their labs. It was said that the content carriers are in negotiations to enter into a partnership for the device, which some have referred to as the "iTV."

Separately, another analyst report highlighted by AppleInsider on Monday also named Rogers and Bell as potential partners for Apple, along with AT&T and Verizon. Peter Misek with Jefferies said he thinks it's most likely that Apple will forge partnerships with existing cable operators for video content, and use that to supplement the offerings available on its iTunes Store.

[ View article on AppleInsider ]
post #2 of 125
Here's the problem with all those impressive numbers & statistics: IT HASN'T HAPPENED YET. LOL.

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post #3 of 125
The only valid comment Ben makes is that a full TV would most likely be at the top of the fiscal year, which is also he top of holiday shopping

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post #4 of 125
Price it around $1300 - $1600 and I'm buying it!

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post #5 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aizmov View Post

Price it around $1300 - $1600 and I'm buying it!

Make it at all and I'll never buy it.

I will buy THREE A6 Apple TVs on the day of launch. I will NEVER buy an Apple HDTV.

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Originally posted by Marvin

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post #6 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Make it at all and I'll never buy it.

I will buy THREE A6 Apple TVs on the day of launch. I will NEVER buy an Apple HDTV.

I could use a new TV so I might which is not the same as thinking these rumours make sense as presented but I'd rather buy a set top box and then choose the specific TV I want from hundreds of choices.

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post #7 of 125
I haven't read a TON comments about the HDTV thing, but had a thought. This may have been covered before. But, with the idea of partnering, what if they subsidize the iTV purchase as cell phone carriers do with the iPhone? For example, sign a 2 year contract with Comcast and get a 50" iTV for $599....

Thoughts?
post #8 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Make it at all and I'll never buy it.

I will buy THREE A6 Apple TVs on the day of launch. I will NEVER buy an Apple HDTV.


Apple will probably discontinue the Apple TV

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post #9 of 125
it will be interesting to see how high Apple will be able to price a TV and still have it sell.

Sony hasn't made a profit in 8 years on TVs
Samsung, Panasonic, Philips etc haven't made a profit on TVs this year.
Pioneer left the TV business because there wasn't a big enough market for high end products.
post #10 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by stationwagon268 View Post

I haven't read a TON comments about the HDTV thing, but had a thought. This may have been covered before. But, with the idea of partnering, what if they subsidize the iTV purchase as cell phone carriers do with the iPhone? For example, sign a 2 year contract with Comcast and get a 50" iTV for $599....

Thoughts?

If Apple is still Apple, they won't be working with cable or satellite providers. They'll be killing them. It's not a 'revolutionary' device or 'cracking the TV' without killing the idiotic system we've had for so long.

Originally posted by Marvin

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Originally posted by Marvin

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post #11 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Make it at all and I'll never buy it.

I will buy THREE A6 Apple TVs on the day of launch. I will NEVER buy an Apple HDTV.

The way I look at it is, if the day comes when I want to replace my largest TV, a 60" and Apple make one with ATV built in plus all the extra cool stuff and it is priced at the same as an alternative traditional TV plus an ATV, why wouldn't I buy the Apple iTV?

On the other hand if I am not yet needing to replace I will live with the ATV and Sony for now and convince myself I don't need it ... My problem is I have zero use for a 42 inch other than maybe in a bedroom.
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post #12 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by stationwagon268 View Post

I haven't read a TON comments about the HDTV thing, but had a thought. This may have been covered before. But, with the idea of partnering, what if they subsidize the iTV purchase as cell phone carriers do with the iPhone? For example, sign a 2 year contract with Comcast and get a 50" iTV for $599....

Thoughts?

This has been presented before but the same issues are still unanswered.

Why would Comcast want to sell a TV when they could just sell a set top box? Comcast and Apple will want you stay on that same Video 1 input on the TV so making it easier to switch to your Blu-ray player or whatever isn't in their best interest. Once you plug the TV's HDMI and power into the set top box it becomes a dumb monitor that allows you to hide the remote in a draw out of view.

The beauty of the set top box is that it's easier to distribute, easier to sell, can be sold at a lower price than a TV yet have a higher profit per unit, can be sold to more consumers because 1) its cheaper, 2) it doesn't mean consumers have to get rid of their currently work and perfectly fine TVs, and 3) because they connect more units to more TVs in their home instead of just on the primary TV in the living room.

Nothing about a partnership with content providers makes putting the AppleTV HW in a TV a more lucrative maneuver. The only HW that would really only work in that sense are any cameras (FaceTime) or motion sensors. However the former has issues because TVs are not placed directly in from of the face the way FaceTime cameras on Macs and iDevices are. Mics for Siri would likely have to be placed in the remote control. You can't have it that far away from the speaker and you still need to initiate Siri with a button press. I doubt some elaborate hand gesture will work for this.

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #13 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by FriedLobster View Post

Apple will probably discontinue the Apple TV

OMG ...I never even considered that before... You never know you could be right. It was only a hobby after all.

You make me feel like running out and getting a another one while the going's good (now I think about it BestBuy haven't had them in stock for weeks) ... but then again would they continue to support existing ones ... That would really be bad ... we gave up TV in favor of really fast FiOS (upgraded) and Netflix and ATV!!!

You were just kidding .. right ..
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post #14 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by FriedLobster View Post

Apple will probably discontinue the Apple TV

Maybe but there are lots of other choices. Even an older mac mini blows the socks of the ATV.
post #15 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

This has been presented before but the same issues are still unanswered.

Why would Comcast want to sell a TV when they could just sell a set top box? Comcast and Apple will want you stay on that same Video 1 input on the TV so making it easier to switch to your Blu-ray player or whatever isn't in their best interest. Once you plug the TV's HDMI and power into the set top box it becomes a dumb monitor that allows you to hide the remote in a draw out of view.

The beauty of the set top box is that it's easier to distribute, easier to sell, can be sold at a lower price than a TV yet have a higher profit per unit, can be sold to more consumers because 1) its cheaper, 2) it doesn't mean consumers have to get rid of their currently work and perfectly fine TVs, and 3) because they connect more units to more TVs in their home instead of just on the primary TV in the living room.

Nothing about a partnership with content providers makes putting the AppleTV HW in a TV a more lucrative maneuver. The only HW that would really only work in that sense are any cameras (FaceTime) or motion sensors. However the former has issues because TVs are not placed directly in from of the face the way FaceTime cameras on Macs and iDevices are. Mics for Siri would likely have to be placed in the remote control. You can't have it that far away from the speaker and you still need to initiate Siri with a button press. I doubt some elaborate hand gesture will work for this.

if comcast can get rid of having millions of old cable boxes it has to support it will partner with apple. if a new apple tv will save comcast money from buying new boxes they will do it
post #16 of 125
I still think its the home theater receiver that's the real piece of crap. Come on, right down to the little monochrome LCD display. Swiching between devices is the biggest pain in the ass. T ere is a volume control on each device( When i plug my ipod in to the dock it is the only device smart enough to disable its own voume control). That's what needs to be redone. The tv is just a screen. The big question would be how much amplifier power you would want to run the speakers
post #17 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

I will buy THREE A6 Apple TVs on the day of launch. I will NEVER buy an Apple HDTV.

What if it had some compelling features which were missing from the Apple TV box?
post #18 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by tjwal View Post

Even an older mac mini blows the socks of the ATV.

In HW specs, sure, but an AppleTV is designed to work on a TV. If you connect a Mini to your TV you are wasting a lot of HW and functionality that Front Row doesn't support, and paying a lot of extra money for the limited usability.


Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post

if comcast can get rid of having millions of old cable boxes it has to support it will partner with apple. if a new apple tv will save comcast money from buying new boxes they will do it

It was pointed out yesterday that cable companies get quite a lot of money off renting the equipment. I can see your point if these Moto, SA, et al. cable boxes are a loss leader but I'm thinking they are not. If you consider service and support it's simple to test and replace a box so I'm not sure that they will save much by letting Apple take over and losing control of an important part of their setup.


PS: Why are cable boxes and cable modems separate devices. I see no reason why these can't be one device.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #19 of 125
What a nonsense story. If Apple built rocket ships they would probably be the galactic leaders with over 50% of the market.

Try giving us some real news.
post #20 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

If Apple is still Apple, they won't be working with cable or satellite providers. They'll be killing them. It's not a 'revolutionary' device or 'cracking the TV' without killing the idiotic system we've had for so long.

I disagree. It'd be no different from a model where they work with mobile service providers with the iPhone/iPad.

Apple will (and should) have no interest in the pipe business.
post #21 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by I am a Zither Zather Zuzz View Post

What if it had some compelling features which were missing from the Apple TV box?

I'm of the belief they'd only sell one or the other. I'm also of the belief they'd not make a TV at all, but that's me.

The only box that will be missing features is the current Apple TV which won't get the update to the next one's software. That's just how Apple rolls.

Oh, and to answer the question, I still wouldn't get it. I've no use nor desire for an integrated TV when buying ANY TV and a $99 box is a much better solution.

Originally posted by Marvin

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Originally posted by Marvin

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post #22 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

The way I look at it is, if the day comes when I want to replace my largest TV, a 60" and Apple make one with ATV built in plus all the extra cool stuff and it is priced at the same as an alternative traditional TV plus an ATV, why wouldn't I buy the Apple iTV?

all-in-one home entertainment is expensive to update. look at the old TV/VCR combos: the TV was still good even though everyone moved on to DVD. Look at the LCD TV/DVD combos: the TV is still fine but you can't swap the DVD for a BluRay or AppleTV. The HUGE benefit of a component system is that you only have to update the obsolete parts, and you aren't buying components you don't need. i don't plan on buying another 60" TV just because the aTV [hockey puck] has been updated - i'll just spend 99 bucks on a new aTV to plug into my $3500 TV.
post #23 of 125
I predict that if Apple works out how to turn water into gold cheaply, and if the current price of gold remains at around present levels, then Apple will be able to make a lot of money.

That wasn't an analysis, it was stating the bleeding obvious.
post #24 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Make it at all and I'll never buy it.

I will buy THREE A6 Apple TVs on the day of launch. I will NEVER buy an Apple HDTV.

I can't say never until I see the real thing. I can rule it out if there's no model >=55". I have a few LED backlit LCDs for lesser rooms but stick with plasma for main viewing. I'm leaning toward 3x A6 Apple TV appliances as well.
post #25 of 125
The Apple TV rumor mill is on fire this week.

The TV may have an SSD expansion slot. The set-top box may have a thunderbolt port.
post #26 of 125
Based on WHAT???
post #27 of 125
I think most of these analysts are thinking too small. The iTV, if it exists, is, like all Apple's current products, likely to be a computer masquerading as a consumer electronics device. It's going to run iOS and it's going to have an App Store and it's going to solve the problem of interacting from a distance. Content deals are important but each country is different. Personally I think the iTV will be an answer to an even broader question: What is the role of large displays in a world in which tablets and smartphones dominate? Not just the big screen in your living room but the one on your desk and the projector in your conference room and so forth. How will we interact with them? How will our devices interact with them?
post #28 of 125
I still think its the home theater receiver that's the real piece of crap. Come on, right down to the little monochrome LCD display. Swiching between devices is the biggest pain in the ass. T ere is a volume control on each device( When i plug my ipod in to the dock it is the only device smart enough to disable its own voume control). That's what needs to be redone. The tv is just a screen. The big question would be how much amplifier power you would want to run the speakers
Or you give the tv all the input and switching features of the HT Reciver and included a smaller but almost adequate audio amp built in(80-100 watts / channel) and include a audio line out for a power amp. Or a powered sub woofer.
post #29 of 125
Hypothetical sales stats from a hypothetical product?

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post #30 of 125
Sky Sports
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #31 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

I'm of the belief they'd only sell one or the other. I'm also of the belief they'd not make a TV at all, but that's me.

The only box that will be missing features is the current Apple TV which won't get the update to the next one's software. That's just how Apple rolls.

Oh, and to answer the question, I still wouldn't get it. I've no use nor desire for an integrated TV when buying ANY TV and a $99 box is a much better solution.

I agree, it would be so much better if Apple released a redesigned Apple TV, even if it was $199. They could still do Facetime, Siri, Apps, and revolutionize the way we watch television, all while leaving the war between inches, display technology, reliability, brightness, clarity, and price to the current manufacturers.

As a TV maker, they would be one manufacturer in a highly competitive mature market, it would be a big uphill battle to establish a market share.

As a set top box maker, they would be virtually unchallenged and could transcend the entire market. For lack of a better term, they could be the Microsoft of TVs, which is a huge opportunity.
post #32 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

If Apple were to offer high-definition television sets with an average selling price of $1,500, one Wall Street analyst believes the company could capture 5 percent of the market and earn $17 billion in revenue.

I predict that Apple will capture 7.5% of the market and earn 25.5 billion in revenue.
post #33 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

In HW specs, sure, but an AppleTV is designed to work on a TV. If you connect a Mini to your TV you are wasting a lot of HW and functionality that Front Row doesn't support, and paying a lot of extra money for the limited usability.


I have both an ATV and a mini hooked up as an HTB. The ATV is nice and simple to use but limited to what apple puts in its menus. The mini has XBMC installed, I don't use Front Row. XBMC provides far more content that the ATV has. In addition I can use the browser to surf to sites that have content that is not available on the ATV. Things like hulu or tv station websites spring to mind.

I did have an first gen intel mini gathering dust so there was no extra money involved. Even so if I had to choose between an ATV and buying an "OLDER" mini, I'd go with the mini.
post #34 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by I am a Zither Zather Zuzz View Post

I predict that Apple will capture 7.5% of the market and earn 25.5 billion in revenue.

I ran the numbers. Apple will own 150% of the market and make -4% of the profits.

I might have messed something up.

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #35 of 125
Damn, what did they eat to keep pulling numbers out their collective backsides.
post #36 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

The Apple TV rumor mill is on fire this week.

Man, I sure hope they put it out soon. Did everyone get out safely?


Anyway...

I personally don't know what would excite me enough to spend what Apple would charge.
post #37 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I ran the numbers. Apple will own 150% of the market and make -4% of the profits.

I might have messed something up.

That reminds me of my math results in advanced physics class and why i am not now a physicist
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post #38 of 125
The technology exists today to directly, and cost effectively address your design concerns.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

.......
Nothing about a partnership with content providers makes putting the AppleTV HW in a TV a more lucrative maneuver. The only HW that would really only work in that sense are any cameras (FaceTime) or motion sensors. However the former has issues because TVs are not placed directly in from of the face the way FaceTime cameras on Macs and iDevices are.

Clearly two (or more) cameras with at least 1 the direction of which can be changed would solve this. Today's face recognition software would allow tracking easily, especially combined with a microphone array to detect who is speaking.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Mics for Siri would likely have to be placed in the remote control. You can't have it that far away from the speaker

This would easily be address with a small array of microphones acting in a phased array combined with face recognition. The TV would track faces and voices in the room and create a directional microphone to pick up voices. The SW and HW for this is inexpensive and straight forward today.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

and you still need to initiate Siri with a button press.

Give the above, the typical attention word approach - say 'Siri' - would probably suffice to activate the software.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I doubt some elaborate hand gesture will work for this.

The above would be much simpler (IMO) than hand gestures which should be reserved for other functions.
post #39 of 125
I hate these analysts. They have zero clue about products and technology. They just throw out numbers, nothing more.

1) The analyst believe that Apple LCDTV will be released world wide. Not even the AppleTV is released world wide.
2) 17 Billion in revenue is totally uninteresting since almost all LCD/Plasma vendors looses money on a 300Billion industry. The profit is interesting, not the revenue.

The Apple LCD TV project is instresting since it will pair a fast A class processor with a large LCD screen. Its a iOS Imac, more or less.
What Apple needs is content. If they can get all TV companies to rent out their content to a true OnDemand TV world, that would be huge. The TV companies get their advertising revenue and the advertising cant be sipped since its streaming. Apple is compensated somehow. Maybe the same deal as they have with the music industry 9-11% of revenue goes to Apple.

Apple needs to find compelling reasons for people like me to throw out good 50+ inch LCD/Plasma and replace it with Apples LCD.

1) A6 processor. Raw computer power like a quod core Intel. This is much better then the competition.
2) Apple visual processor. The A5 have shown what it can do. Since all TV today is 720P Apple can use it to upscale the content to the best 1080P seen in the business.
3) Apps.
4) Computer replacement for many. Just use a bluetooth keyboard and some input device and you can do everything like on an Imac (except specific programs done by companies that are lazy like Adobe)
post #40 of 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

In HW specs, sure, but an AppleTV is designed to work on a TV. If you connect a Mini to your TV you are wasting a lot of HW and functionality that Front Row doesn't support, and paying a lot of extra money for the limited usability.



It was pointed out yesterday that cable companies get quite a lot of money off renting the equipment. I can see your point if these Moto, SA, et al. cable boxes are a loss leader but I'm thinking they are not. If you consider service and support it's simple to test and replace a box so I'm not sure that they will save much by letting Apple take over and losing control of an important part of their setup.


PS: Why are cable boxes and cable modems separate devices. I see no reason why these can't be one device.


maybe revenue, but you have to figure that each box is like $500. and the times when i have been to the Time Warner Cable store to get one replaced i saw a HUGE stack of good and bad boxes there. they take it from you with some basic info and give you a new one with no testing so there is probably a lot of overhead in testing the "bad" units.

the current gen of boxes are due to be upgraded and i don't think they want to spend a lot of cash for this when you can easily put the functionality in even the cheapest of TV's or one of the many add on boxes consumers buy
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