Apple seen taking 5% of HDTV market, earning $17B in revenue - Page 2

I suspect you are referring to the ATV mark 1. Since the second version, all streaming, AirPlay and iCloud I fail to see how any Mac new or old can substitute the ATV and that isn't even taking the $99 price into account.

I would buy THREE A6 headless macs, but it wont happen.

The reason why Apps are not available in todays AppleTV is because Apple is holding out for the Apple LCDTV.

If Apple is going to release a LCDTV we will probably not see an upgraded AppleTV. I know about the AppleTV 3.1 drives. But we should have seen this product last year with A5.

(and when I still dream: I want an A6 Time Capsule so that I can get more then 6Megabyte against the USB disks. Even a 4 bay A6 Time Capsule to capture the NAS market)

We bought one of the current Apple TV's and love it, even though we live in Japan where there are no TV show downloads and the movie remains a bit short and many movies, though made in the US, are only available dubbed in Japanese (all the Disney films, for example). The DVDs available at the convenience store down the street often contain several languages. Go figure.

If they put out an HDTV, we would certainly be in the market, but they are going to have to improve on content for Japan. That, sadly, is not completely up to Apple (); Gaga Usen and Sony have supposedly been rather obstructionist over making content available here, despot giving it to Yahoo downloads and other sources. Dunno for sure, just a rumor I heard.

Our current TV is a Hitachi with built-in HD recording. We have satellite TV with several awesome channels and the ease with which we can select a show and record it is fantastic (all done on the TV without fiddling with multiple deices), and this TV is almost seven years old. DVDs, BluRay... those are a separate box, as is Apple TV.

Hopefully, they will make it work as seamlessly as our current TV, with recording. In my dreams, they would include a built-in BluRay/DVD player, but we know Apple's aversion to BR...

All TV in Japan is digital from last year, which means we have great quality. The TV will need plenty of recording ability.

Different stuff for different people.
I want to look at blu rays.

Had to buy an MacMini with graphic card to be able to see bluray. Worked great.
Then Bluray 3D was released and I had to swap to a HDMI 1.4 MacMini.

Why have 50 inch TVs and watch 720P? Only blu ray have the full 1080P resolution.

Its also fun to have a couple of thousends of TV shows/movies connected to the mini using thunderbolt/USB.

Here's what I still can't figure out...
What feature(s) does a built in monitor add over a STB?
Why would they focus so completely on building/selling a full-on TV set and leave all of the people who are perfectly happy with their current monitor off of the table?

Will this be full TV only, or will there be a STB?
The only things I can think of that a unified TV offer are
- an ideal place for a camera
- ease of use for all of the settings/adjustments that are such a nightmare on all current TVs
- ??

What am I missing about the need for built-in monitor that STB doesn't address?

I dunno... they're working with AT&T, Verizon et al.
I'm beginning the think partnering with Comcast and the others is exactly what they're going to do, and focusing on providing an actually good user interface for the first time, something the cable/fios companies have never been able to do.

Another 'how the hell did we live with that crap before Apple' opportunity from which they can then devour their hosts.

WOW...i actually find myself agreeing with TS.....
I think Apple will provide their own way to provide the content and turn the present industry upside down...........

That first part would surprise me. Cut out anyone that owns a TV now or wants features not available on an Apple made television? I figured they'd keep the appliance and use it like a gateway drug to iOS and cloud subscription content the way the iPod was to iTunes content and Mac.

There's no evidence for that whatsoever, nor is there any explanation for why they'd need to have their own panel.


None. Unless you consider 'paying more for no reason' to be a feature.


Well, because people with their own TVs don't have... I mean, they're not... And if you don't use a...


I've always seen this situation as a Highlander. And aside from the inherent humor of the idea of an HDTV, that has been part of the reason I hate the idea of an HDTV from Apple.


And even then, to what end? Who the frick wants to FaceTime someone sitting in their recliner with Cheetos dust down their front? They're WAY far away from the camera, so you can't really see them, and they're looking at you–you who are probably in Paris or wherever showing them some awesome stuff in real life.


Oh, what about this: on the release of the A6 Apple TV (box), Apple pitches additions to the HDMI 1.5 spec that allows devices connected with HDMI to have their own interfaces for television hardware controls?

So not only do you get to control your TV's settings with the Apple TV, you'll have an Apple-quality interface in which to do it.


I can't see them selling both. They've never done anything like that. So it's either cut them out by selling an HDTV or give these features to everyone by selling an Apple TV. You can see why I pick the latter.

They don't need to make a profit. Theoretically, they can break even, as as long as it has an app store, they're already profiting. Obviously a more realistic scenario is that they WILL make a profit on them, but clearly apple know they can't have crazy margins like on their other devices, and I can easily sacrifice those margins simply to be a player in that space. Unlike most other people, I DO think Apple can do very well selling TVs- simply because there is so little differentiation now. People aren't loyal to anything, and if APple can incorporate enough differentiating features (which they will) I can see them grabbing a good percentage of HDTV shoppers. Why not go with the Apple model, if it isn't significantly more expensive?

Also, please don't bring up the AppleTV box. Its tough to advertise these TV boxes, and making the entire TV has a ton more possibilites from a technological (ie. facetime cam, microphone, new interaction paradigms, etc) and marketing point of view. I just wish SJ was still around to see it into fruition. I'd be much more confident that the execution will be nailed.

More in theory than in reality.


That would work but so far I have seen nothing from Apple that shows they have sufficient competiency to push to a shipping product in the next 6 months.


This is also tough to believe when the iPhone still picks up background noise that I can barely hear yet people on the other end can't ignore.


So anytime anyone on TV says "Siri' it activates then follows their commands?

• (Was going to link to the full 30 Rock clip of Jack and voice controlled TV but all the full clips seem to be down.)

And being able to pick up me across the room when there are loud speakers next to the mic blaring is an issue. Eventually this will be overcome, but again, I've seen nothing from Apple that shows they have worked out all the issues to ready a working product. Remember, Apple tends to work small and expand on technologies once they master them. So far these things are not Starship Enterprise ready.

You may be right about it being easier to sell the whole solution instead of just 'another box'. Steve made it clear he thought the proliferation of STBs was itself a part of the problem.
But Apple is NOT looking to content/apps for their $$. Apple makes its money from hardware. Everything else just supports that model. This is not the point at which they change their entire business model. Loss-leader hardware with income from content is Amazon's model, not Apple's.

This pretty much summarizes it for me. If, if, if.

Apple could put out the coolest TV hardware on the planet (and we know they could) but if doesn't break both the cable box and remote control chains of pain, then they're just another pretty face in the TV business. Apple is missing one huge connective piece here and I have yet to hear a plausible scenario for how they can create an entirely new bridge between the content providers and the living room.

No one (particularly the entrenched phone makers) thought they had the 'competency' to upend the phone market either.

As for background noise, check out the articles this week about the custom sound reception processing found to be built into the 4S... they're obviously paying a lot of attention to that kind of issue.

We can't confuse the "just another box" comment. The problem isn't the box, it's the complexity of the network setups. In that sense "just another box" will not solve the problem. Putting "just another box" inside the TV which is also "just another box" will just make it doubly pointless for Apple without a solution for the way content is dealt across the entire chain.

It's Apple. They don not subscribe to the Amazon model of "we lose money on everything we sell and somehow think this will work".


Tough to advertise? Okay, I'll give it a shot.

*Screen shows an unbranded TV (in a very short field of focus like the recent Apple commercials) in an average home showing some show available in iTunes/show made available with new licensing agreements. Throughout the commercial, the screen slowly zooms into the screen as snippets from various shows cross it.*

"For decades, you've been able to pay for your favorite shows... and everything else. For decades, you've been able to watch your favorite shows... when they're on. For decades, you've had to sit through commercials... or at least skip through them."

*The commercial that had just been playing speeds up dramatically*

"But what if you could buy just the shows you want to see? What if you could watch them whenever you wanted? And what if they didn't have commercials at all? And what if you could watch live news..."

*snippet of a generic news show*

"...sports..."

*snippet of a game*

"...and videos from the web..."

*YouTube and Vimeo logos fade by*

"...as well as your music..."

*shows the music interface*

"...movies..."

*shows the movie grid interface*

"...and photos..."

*photo slideshow*

"...like you've never seen them before?"

*All we see by now is the contents of the TV screen, not even the frame. It shows...*

"Introducing the new Apple TV. No longer a hobby."

*end on a white Apple logo on a black background, as you'd see when plugging in your Apple TV for the first time*

And seriously, people, why do you want FaceTime on your TVs? You'll be asking for it on your toasters next.

The article on EarSmart backs up my argument. Even in the recently released 4S the tech is not great. There is no way the current tech in the iPhone could be used in a large room where the speakers are 10-15 feet away from the mic when there are loud speakers next to it.

From the article...
Arm's length isn't going to cut it.

how often does a person or family change a TV? 5 years? 10 years? or life time?

iphone or ipod can be replaced in couple of years as technology advanced and new types are coming out.

macintosh computer can be replaced in about 5 years as new CPUs and components are coming out.

for an apple HDTV set, i don't see the cyclic replacement pattern there. so if apple just becomes another TV set maker with siri input method, i don't think apple would make lots of money.

The only way I can imagine that the "just another box" concept works for Apple is if they can figure out how to virtualize existing cable boxes in iOS. But even if this could be accomplished technically (both TW and Comcast have more or less done this with iPad apps) it's still a very rocky road. First, many content providers were not pleased with TW's iPad app and are still are not willing to be carried this way. Second, the content servers are not going to give up their cable box rental revenues without a fight. Third, the cable box manufacturers would likely sue if Apple's TV intercepted their proprietary data streams and abstracted them in a way that an Apple TV could display.

I'm with you here too... If Apple can come up with a viable alternative to the cable and satellite strangleholds, I'm in!

Apple turned the music and much of the phone industry on their heads, so there is some precedence for hope here. I can't imagine ever spending $1000 to $1500 on a TV, but if it means the demise of the current cable and satellite paradigms, well... I'll have to reconsider.

My wish would be for an iTunes sort of TV menu with maybe a small monthly provider charge - say under $10? I can then subscribe (with the usual commercial content) to any one channel or multiple channels for $1.99 a month each. At the end of that 30 days, I have the option to re-up or move on. Right now, I'm subscribed to over 200 channels only because I have to have that package to have access to the 1/2 dozen channels I really want. All of that comes at close to $100 a month.

A lot of people for many years wished they could buy just the "hits" off the music recordings, but were forced to pay upwards of $20 for that one song that then came along with usually a dozen other songs that were turkeys. Say what you want about MP3 fidelity, I listen to WAY more music now since the advent of "on-the-go" devices and now when I spend $20 on music, I get 20 songs that I really want to listen to. My wish is to have that same access with my TV viewing, I wish to pay for what I use and only what I use.

The problem with that is that there are a few out of way places that don't have Comcast, like NYC.

A rough estimation puts the subscribers at about 100 million so I think that's a pretty good coverage of US homes...

• Top 25 Multichannel Video Programming Distributors as of Sept. 2011

Where would AT&T, Verizon, Dish and DirectTV fit in? What about the rest of the world?

The music industry is much different from the TV/movie industry. Unlike music where there are many players and TV/movie industry has major players plus a few minor ones. I could produce a #1 hit sing in my basement but I cannot make a season of Lost. I'm really curious to see what Apple had up their sleeve.

They have to cut their margins on TVs to compete, but they thought they could make it up in sales of 3D glasses.



With Apple, I would see them bringing out a HDTV with a lower profit margin than they normally look for - because they would expect to make up the difference on the sales of media, movies, apps, etc.

But it won't be a low-budget Kindle black & white TV with a tiny screen.

40% margin I wonder what is he smoking.

It's hard to imagine how apps on an Apple HDTV will make up the loss of profit in the long term when the HW for the apps will be quickly outdated. I don't expect AppleTV HW to be updated yearly once they move to apps, but every 2 or 3 years seems reasonable. Certainly not the 5 or 10 years that TVs tend to be used.

I'm used to B&O price levels, so I would easily pay $3000 - $5000 for a nice Apple HDTV (or whatever it is called).

Rather than building a TV I wish Apple would do something in the car audio space. I just bought a new deck for car as I wanted to be able to hook up my iPhone to it. But the interface is just a nightmare. Figuring out how to use the damn thing is a pain in the arse.

Just speculating here but could it be that the dominance of content providers such as Comcast is in threatened by access to content across the web? If you can buy web based content packages from Comcast, does it matter where in the US you live? I have no basis for thinking this is even possible, but if this is what the future holds then there may be an incentive for the Comcasts in this world to partner up with someone like Apple.

The other point is that if Comcast sees a threat from the Apple model of content distribution it may be better for them to be aboard and play Apple's game and remain in control of the content.

If over time Comcast can do away with hardware they may save money.

If the market opens up to competition the one who's in bed with Apple may be better positioned.

On an Apple TV there would be no 'Video 1' option ;-) Designations such as Video 1, HDMi etc will seem archaic very quickly

I am not sure there would be a higher profit margin on a set top box than on a TV set, but the thing I would worry about buying a 'smart tv' is whether the thing will still be smart in 5 years time.

I can imagine Apple would want to sell additional hardware with a TV set. If you have paid for a content stream why limit that to a single TV? Maybe there is a business model there. A single stream costs x and two, tree or four streams cost xx,xxx, and xxxx. I imagine Apple would want to sell additional hardware to receive and distribute content in the house, building upon existing technology.

I still contend that nothing would advertise Apple's move into the living room better than a big screen with an Apple logo. That in itself has value. If this TV has a camera and Siri there is no reason the camera needs to be the same as in every other Mac. It may be able to pan and zoom. an iPhone, iPod touch or iPad would make great companions and remotes. I would imagine a separate smart controller being available, also.

Clunky looking and not for me, but I do think the price is right and the removable front plate to accommodate future iPhone designs is a nice addition.

• http://www.iclarified.com/entry/index.php?enid=19798

That made me think of something. Remember the failed profit sharing Apple tried with the original iPhone? A set top box would be a great place to offer this. They can have contracts with cable cos to pay a nominal or no fee for the box up front but then get a monthly kickback from all customers that are using Apple's box.

I think I'd pay double the price than my current set top box for one that had the AppleTV inside just for the convenience. Over a year that could pay for itself and then some. The cable cos would have to pay less money out of pocket and Apple could make more money and be part of your everyday TV viewing habits in ways that a stand alone TV could never be.


I still contend that Apple already owns the living room with iDevices and Mac notebooks, it's the HEC (Home Entertainment Center) that they don't yet own.

But why would the cable companies ever let Apple piggy back onto their infrastructure? Apple would then sell consumers content. Why would the cable compnies give up their existing revenue streams? Not to even mention advertising dollars......

Apple wouldn't want to be tied to Comcast or anyone.

Apple wants to replace Comcast.

Apple will make an IPTV (The tech U-Verse and FIOS uses), and deliver the videos to it just like they do now with iTunes.

This thing will be a true "convergence" device.

You assume too much about my comment. I never said anything about Apple piggybacking on their infrastructure (at least any more than their devices already do), nor did I mention anything about advertising streams.

The only revenue difference I mentioned would be a large upfront savings for cable cos in the form of cable boxes that Apple would be paid for each month through the cable co from the consumer using Apple's boxes. Boxes that are still pushing the cable co's channels with all there national, regional and local ads, and with all their deals with the networks still in place.

I'm talking about Apple replacing your Motorola, Scientific Atlanta, et al. set top boxes with an Apple set top box that does what those other boxes can do but a whole lot more and at less cost direct cost to the cable companies.

I posted this before in the Rogers thread, but it still applies and I still believe it.

It's a cable box

...to compete with the upcoming Google/Motorola company and their access to the living room. Apple has a small window of opportunity to partner with cable companies and develop a compelling alternative to the end runaround that Google will pull off shortly. Google TV? Oh yeah - on every Motorola setup box.

I like my content (DirecTV - loads of 1080i). I DO NOT want to have streaming 480 and 720 net based content. Netflix streaming? Yeah...simply fantastic. (No.) Crappy picture, buffering, network hog. (Yes, I use it. LOL)

Dear Apple,

Please put your lovely box and interface in my living room, as part of my tv watching experience. Change the way I watch or think about TV.

Yours,

PowerMach

P.S. In 3-5 years when it's not "awesome" anymore, I want to buy another one...the newest one. Selling me a TV just won't fly. DVD player breaks, buy another, etc., etc.

Everyone should check out the latest Google TV (don't laugh) it's pretty freakin' good. Compare it to the current Apple TV2. http://www.google.com/tv/

Apple is going run cable to every home so they can be the ISP? No way.

Apple is going to get the networks to dump all their guaranteed payments to the cable providers and supply all the advertising but somehow run it like iTunes without ads in a costly Ã* la carte fashion? No way.

I don't. In fact, we thought it was extremely successful.

It flopped. AT&T seemed to love it and it was good for consumers but Apple had a hard time selling it to the cellular industry and abandoned it by the time the iPhone 3G arrived. It's rumoured that Apple had to agree to another year of exclusivity in order to get AT&T to dump the model.

Cool analysis, bro. Being able to predict the market share and revenue earnings based on an unannounced product, no clue on what this product even is, the features or even a price.

Exactly. Nobody has yet described a scenario where giving Apple more control over the supplier's content stream and a bite of the revenue would be even slightly attractive to the cable and satellite companies. Failing that, they will have to either think huge with plans to replicate this infrastructure entirely on their own, or smaller, by replacing the cable box with iOS software that duplicates its function in a way that doesn't suck. The latter scenario is far more realistic.

Yup, I tend to agree, but the concept of a set-top box is clunky. A flat screen with only a power cable is so much more Apple like. People will attach all sorts of devices but it would be Apple's goal to rid the living room of those. Come to think of it, doesn't Apple own the HEC? I mean each and every iDevice is you own PHEC, innit? (P as in personal)

An Airport Extreme device to send content to the TV and everywhere else in the house
iDevices for games and ... err... that's it.

I think you are right in that it makes more sense just to make a set top box type thing like aTV2, but ditto for desktop computers. Logically Apple ought only to make the mini. As Apple is very design driven / focussed I am sure the aTV will never quite appeal as much as an all in one unit.