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Apple now worth more than Google and Microsoft combined [u] - Page 2

post #41 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by kenshinluo View Post

496... what's going on...

The most remarkable thing is, Apple's trailing P/E is still only 14x, even at this price. Essentially, the same as that of Walmart! The average for the S&P500 during the last 100 years is 16x!!

Let's not even talk about Apple's forward P/E.....
post #42 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by focher View Post

I be luvin me my's Apple stock. I moved my previous employer 401k over to a Rollover IRA last year, then promptly bought all AAPL with it. I'm long on Apple.

You are pursuing a risky strategy.
post #43 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

Apple and Apple shareholders are only getting what has been due from Wall Street over the last couple of years. What I mean is that Apple is finally being recognized as a very successful company that has changed both the computer and cellphone industry immensely and has provided many jobs whether locally or abroad. For Wall Street to ignore Apple the way it has just seems criminal. Over this past quarter, I'm more than satisfied over Apple's share price boost and I have no reason to call for a dividend or buyback. I'm content with the slow and steady climb of the stock over the past year and hope it continues for the rest of the year. Apple is certainly the best stock I've ever owned or could ever hope to own. Thanks, Apple. Put the screws to Wall Street and make them take notice.

The Apple Effect begins to be noticed and taken seriously.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Why did the stock go up $17 so far today?! What happened last night to do this? It's a normal day; it's supposed to go up by $1 at most and down by $4-10 like the insane ramblers believe.

Not that I know anything, but Groupon's numbers came in and were pronounced "disappointing."

Contrasted with Apple's grounding in real hardware and massive competence in global sourcing, manufacturing and marketing, maybe the idea is beginning to sink in that we are witnessing the birth of a new kind of industry, and it's not a vaporous Internet scam or a software-only monopoly, or a product based on algorithms and ads.

I heard Brian Wesbury, the economist ("It's Not as Bad as You Think"), on Tom Ashbrook's "On Point" (WBUR/NPR) saying with no hesitation in his voice that we are seeing a new tech economic front developing around smartphones and tablets.

Even the PC-heads in finance may be waking up to this revolution that has been happening in front of them since -- when? 2007?
post #44 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by focher View Post

I be luvin me my's Apple stock. I moved my previous employer 401k over to a Rollover IRA last year, then promptly bought all AAPL with it. I'm long on Apple.

100%? Put in a stop-loss order, please. No tree grows to the sky.
post #45 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by OriginalG View Post

Alternatively, the question that should be asked is "will Apple earn more than MS and Google combined in a future quarter?"

That already happened.

Last reporting period, Google had revenues of $10.584B and Microsoft had revenues of $17.37B. Apple had revenues of $42+ billion. Apple doesn't even see those guys in its rear view mirror.

Google revenue
Microsoft revenue
post #46 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by I am a Zither Zather Zuzz View Post

I'm not sure how many said "immediately".

Usually these things take a while. It is like redirecting a battleship. Analysts know that.

I'm rarely adamant in disagreeing but most [trolls and Apple haters] said immediately. They predicted [hoped] instant shock and horror would occur. The truth is the initial illness did cause some shock and devaluation but thanks to excellent planning and Apple's top team it was already factored into the valuation by the time of sad the event. So there is no analogy to battleships or otherwise that are remotely relevant.
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post #47 of 191
Look like someone somewhere knew iPhone number in China (from Chinese carriers perhaps).
post #48 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Great news for some of the very patient Apple investors here who've been waiting for significant stock movement the past few months.

I think some of you guys should send out gift cards to the rest of us poor folk who don't have Apple in our portfolios. You know, just to rub it it.

A simple VISA gift card will work fine for me. No need for anything special.

Months? Try many, many years

But ... it's not too late, go buy a few hundred now and sit back and watch it reach 650 in a year or so.
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post #49 of 191
That must really cheese Eric Schmuck.
post #50 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I'm rarely adamant in disagreeing but most said immediately. They predicted instant shock and horror would occur. The truth is the initial illness did cause some shock and devaluation but thanks to excellent planning and Apple's top team it was already factored into the valuation by the time of sad event. So there is no analogy to battleships or otherwise that are remotely relevant.

OK. Maybe you are correct.

But ISTM that a company like Apple has momentum. It also has an effective leadership team, albeit crippled by Steve's demise. I don't see anything happening quickly, but that said, I'm amazed at the rate of growth they have displayed. For such a big company, it is truly amazing.
post #51 of 191
Tell me about it I made 10000$ with just 2000$ in one day with options. The stock has been rising so fast this week I already did 4 options roll up, took 20k profit out and I am still in play in case it keeps going.

insane. and the thing is its still way way undervalue compare to fundamentals.

I think we are having a feb 23rd stockholder meeting rally for dividends.
or we could be in a ipad 3 annoucement rally, like it always does.
or this could just be a P/E compression correction from 12 to 15.
or Apple TV noise
or all of the above
post #52 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by I am a Zither Zather Zuzz View Post

OK. Maybe you are correct.

But ISTM that a company like Apple has momentum. It also has an effective leadership team, albeit crippled by Steve's demise. I don't see anything happening quickly, but that said, I'm amazed at the rate of growth they have displayed. For such a big company, it is truly amazing.

Because they are not crippled by Steve's demise.

Edit: Your "ISTM" there. ConradJoe used to be fond of those initialisms. Under your present identity, maybe you should quit using them. Besides, I don't know what the hell it means, and I refuse to look it up.
post #53 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by I am a Zither Zather Zuzz View Post

You are pursuing a risky strategy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OldMacGuy View Post

100%? Put in a stop-loss order, please. No tree grows to the sky.

Who said that's my only investment fund? Besides, I'm so far ahead that only the Mayan prediction for the end of the world could result in a cataclysm sufficient enough to set me back.

If someone would like to propose a better place to put this money right now than AAPL, I'm all ears.
post #54 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by I am a Zither Zather Zuzz View Post

OK. Maybe you are correct.

But ISTM that a company like Apple has momentum. It also has an effective leadership team, albeit crippled by Steve's demise. I don't see anything happening quickly, but that said, I'm amazed at the rate of growth they have displayed. For such a big company, it is truly amazing.

I don't think they are crippled by Steve's passing although I truly hope he passed on to them a ton of innovative ideas for the future (and I bet he did). But that's one heck of a team he left running Apple.

Regarding growth, I really believe "we ain't seen nothing yet!"
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post #55 of 191
Market cap is misleading. Look at Enterprise Value which strips out excess cash and adds back debt outstanding. This is the real price a company's profit-generating assets are worth to the market. Apple's EV (as of 12:40 EST) is $364.8B vs. $377.6B for XOM and $211.5B for MSFT.
post #56 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by focher View Post

Who said that's my only investment fund? Besides, I'm so far ahead that only the Mayan prediction for the end of the world could result in a cataclysm sufficient enough to set me back.

If someone would like to propose a better place to put this money right now than AAPL, I'm all ears.

Well said. My wife, on my suggestion, moved about half of hers to AAPL, her broker screamed blue murder and made her sign a paper to say she acknowledged he disagreed. His investments are still down several years later and last summer she moved half of those. He didn't say as much that time. His expert investments which are mostly in 'safe' funds are still down. Some times you have to take a risk but after tracking Apple closely for over thirty years I think it wasn't much of a risk this last decade and I am still confident, although there will be ups and downs, the slope continues upward.
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post #57 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by focher View Post

I be luvin me my's Apple stock. I moved my previous employer 401k over to a Rollover IRA last year, then promptly bought all AAPL with it. I'm long on Apple.

omg way to much risk. Activate your account for level 1 option trading, invest 80% of the portfolio in dividends stock from 5 different sectors, then play Apple with options with only 20% of the capital.

You could just buy deep in the money JAN 2013 options it will be like stocks but you will have leverage and own the same amount of stocks you currently have. Always stay about 50$ in the money, if the stock rise by more than 10$, sell the options and buy another set 50$ in the money. This is called rolling up.
post #58 of 191
The title is wrong.

Apple has been worth more than Google and Microsoft combined for years. It's just that the market finally recognizes that fact.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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post #59 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

omg way to much risk. Activate your account for level 1 option trading, invest 80% of the portfolio in dividends stock from 5 different sectors, then play Apple with options with only 20% of the capital.

You could just buy deep in the money JAN 2013 options it will be like stocks but you will have leverage and own the same amount of stocks you currently have. Always stay about 50$ in the money, if the stock rise by more than 10$, sell the options and buy another set 50$ in the money. This is called rolling up.

So (for simple math) if you started two years ago with $1,000 using your plan and he was 100% in APPL over the same period what would the side by side valuation be of the two accounts be today?
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post #60 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

omg way to much risk. Activate your account for level 1 option trading, invest 80% of the portfolio in dividends stock from 5 different sectors, then play Apple with options with only 20% of the capital.

You could just buy deep in the money JAN 2013 options it will be like stocks but you will have leverage and own the same amount of stocks you currently have. Always stay about 50$ in the money, if the stock rise by more than 10$, sell the options and buy another set 50$ in the money. This is called rolling up.

Thanks, but that investment advice is worth exactly the amount I paid for it. You don't have sufficient information about my overall investment portfolio to give such advice and seem to be stuck on a single fund that is only invested in a single security.

I'm way ahead of virtually every other investment strategy out there, and I'm WAY ahead of the one you just proposed.
post #61 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

So (for simple math) if you started two years ago with $1,000 using your plan and he was 100% in APPL over the same period what would the side by side valuation be of the two accounts be today?

1 option lot is the same has owning 100 shares of the stock. The problem with option is premium and the greeks. If you dont understand them you could get own and lose a ton of money. But if you buy 1 year from expiration options (LEAPS), and go 10% of the stock price in the money, you will reduce the effect of the premiums and wont have to bother with them.

But its very important to do roll ups has the stock rise to take out profits. You take the profits and buy more dividend stock with them.

Note that stock price variation go both ways, if the stock drop, options prices will drop to a much greater % than stocks because of the leverage. You own large amount of stocks for a small price, so variation are amplified both ways.

imo anyone playing with options need to learn about them, especially when trading close to expiration options.

In youre example you could had turn that 1000$ to 200 000$ easy. Easy to say after the fact because we know the stock went from 200$ to almost 500$. But when you invest you never know what will happen, so the stress can get pretty high.

Options 101:
http://www.optionsplaybook.com/options-introduction/
post #62 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by mateo999 View Post

Market cap is misleading. Look at Enterprise Value which strips out excess cash and adds back debt outstanding. This is the real price a company's profit-generating assets are worth to the market. Apple's EV (as of 12:40 EST) is $364.8B vs. $377.6B for XOM and $211.5B for MSFT.

Can you explain how you came to those values?

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post #63 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Why did the stock go up $17 so far today?! What happened last night to do this? It's a normal day; it's supposed to go up by $1 at most and down by $4-10 like the insane ramblers believe.

Probably the firming up of the iPad3 release date rumors, but I wouldn't spend a lot time trying to figure out day-to-day moves, or even week-to-week. The tendency is to get really focused on these instant numbers just because we are able to get constant readouts, but it's a trap investors should not fall into.
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post #64 of 191
Crap sold at $454!
post #65 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Probably the firming up of the iPad3 release date rumors, but I wouldn't spend a lot time trying to figure out day-to-day moves, or even week-to-week. The tendency is to get really focused on these instant numbers just because we are able to get constant readouts, but it's a trap investors should not fall into.

It will fall back somewhat once the iPad 3 is a massive sell out hit. It never fails...
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post #66 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by glui2001 View Post

Crap sold at $454!

... and yet you smile. You'll be hysterical when it's at 650 I assume
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post #67 of 191
I just sold the 10k shares I bought at $8. I AM LYING

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post #68 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by herbapou View Post

1 option lot is the same has owning 100 shares of the stock. The problem with option is premium and the greeks. If you dont understand them you could get own and lose a ton of money. But if you buy 1 year from expiration options (LEAPS), and go 10% of the stock price in the money, you will reduce the effect of the premiums and wont have to bother with them.

But its very important to do roll ups has the stock rise to take out profits. You take the profits and buy more dividend stock with them.

Note that stock price variation go both ways, if the stock drop, options prices will drop to a much greater % than stocks because of the leverage. You own large amount of stocks for a small price, so variation are amplified both ways.

imo anyone playing with options need to learn about them, especially when trading close to expiration options.

In youre example you could had turn that 1000$ to 200 000$ easy. Easy to say after the fact because we know the stock went from 200$ to almost 500$. But when you invest you never know what will happen, so the stress can get pretty high.

I'll stick with the stress of owning AAPL
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post #69 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I just sold the 10k shares I bought at $8. I AM LYING



Chicken ...

edit: OK got me .. I saw the white text too late ... LOL But I did buy at mostly $78 and a few at 35.
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post #70 of 191
I was recently thinking about investing a little bit of money and picking up some AAPL, I don't own any AAPL from before. I'd been thinking about it everyday this past week, and the stock has just kept on rising and rising, so I never did buy in, because I was hoping for a slight downturn and I don't have much experience with the market. And now the stock skyrockets today!

I think that I need to start one of those retarded rumors and try to manipulate the stock price down, so then I can buy in.

You all do know that the iPad 3 is going to flop don't you? I heard that it's going to be thicker than the previous model and also yep, here's the biggie, it's not going to have a retina display! And yes, it's still a toy. Samsung is going to take over the tablet lead from Apple in 3 months time. Please repeat this rumor on all forums and blogs that you can find. It's from very reliable sources ( I pulled it out of my ass), but there's enough dumb people out there that will believe anything. And also, I heard that Apple is a very inhumane company, with all of that evil China business and worker abuse taking place. So any shrewd investor would surely not hang on to such a immoral stock.

But seriously, I do hope that the stock goes down slightly, because I was actually thinking about entering the market soon and I'd prefer to buy in at a lower price, since I know zilch about the market.
post #71 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I just sold the 10k shares I bought at $8. I AM LYING

Shame on you believing in a company, taking a risk, and profiting handsomely from it! The Occupy folks are going to put a bullseye on your forehead. How dare you make money!!

Uncle Sam thanks you for the taxes you're going to pay on the gains. Bravo to you Solips!

I just about burped last-night's dinner when I saw the stock price this morning. My chunk of change in AAPL will still be marinating for a while longer. I think the stock price has a wee bit more to go before the steam begins to run out.

Are you still in the AAPL game or did you completely cash out?

[Edit -Dang you Solips!!! You got me too!!! I didn't know you could erase text like the government does. Are you FBI?? ]
post #72 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by glui2001 View Post

Crap sold at $454!

Don't worry... you should be able to pick it up again under that.
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post #73 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Can you explain how you came to those values?

Sure.

The market capitalization is simply (Price per Share * # shares outstanding). Market caps for AAPL, XOM, MSFT, WMT, and GOOG are: 461.4B, 406.6B, 257.0B, 212.7B, and 198.4B respectively. Thus all the articles that state Apple is the most valuable company are basing their "analyses" on market capitalization. Where this falls short is that it misses the entire debt portion of a company's capital structure. As a rule debt has absolute priority over equity in a bankruptcy, and interest payments have priority over any cash flows given to equity holders.

If a company has 100B in debt outstanding, and it *also* has a market capitalization of $100B, then the market is saying this company has an equity "cushion" of $100B beyond the $100B in debt outstanding. Thus the implied value of the company is $200. If a company was only worth it's market cap (as this article seems to imply), then said company should have a stock price of $0 because all its value is owed contractually to bondholders. Note: that the above analysis assumes the company doesn't have significant excess cash on hand beyond what's required to run the business.

Enterprise value is calculated as Market Cap + Market Value of Debt Oustanding - Excess Cash. EV gets to the heart of what the operating assets of a company are being valued at. It's also how most M&A transactions get valued at, as you'll often read: "the deal was valued at 8x trailing EBITDA" where value is not market cap, but EV.

Onto the calculations:

AAPL: Market cap ($461.4) + debt ($0) - excess cash ($97B) = 363.8B EV
XOM: 406.6B + 16.8B - 46.3B = 377B EV

and so forth. MSFT has an EV of 211.5B and GOOG has an EV of 159.2B

As an aside, the reason you subtract out excess cash (of which Apple has some 97B) is because this can be considered a direct offset of debt (as the cash can be immediately used to pay down debt). Often times you'll hear EV being calculated as Market Cap + Net Debt (debt, net of cash) which is the same analysis as above. Hope this helps.
post #74 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

It will fall back somewhat once the iPad 3 is a massive sell out hit. It never fails...

Yeah, somebody always has a prediction that never fails. Millions of stopped clocks can't be wrong.

Anyhow, for a bit of market reality therapy, this story ran on NPR just this morning.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2012/...-mean-not-much

Something to consider.
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post #75 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

WP7 is innovative but being innovative doesn't make a product popular. . . I think MS's biggest problem with WP7 is that they decided to keep the Windows name. If they had only rebranded it they could have shed a lot of what people dislike about MS. . .

Good points. How about the yPhone and yPad using Microsoft's new yOS. I can see the MS advert slogan now: "Y Not!".

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post #76 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by mateo999 View Post

Sure.

The market capitalization is simply (Price per Share * # shares outstanding). Market caps for AAPL, XOM, MSFT, WMT, and GOOG are: 461.4B, 406.6B, 257.0B, 212.7B, and 198.4B respectively. Thus all the articles that state Apple is the most valuable company are basing their "analyses" on market capitalization. Where this falls short is that it misses the entire debt portion of a company's capital structure. As a rule debt has absolute priority over equity in a bankruptcy, and interest payments have priority over any cash flows given to equity holders.

If a company has 100B in debt outstanding, and it *also* has a market capitalization of $100B, then the market is saying this company has an equity "cushion" of $100B beyond the $100B in debt outstanding. Thus the implied value of the company is $200. If a company was only worth it's market cap (as this article seems to imply), then said company should have a stock price of $0 because all its value is owed contractually to bondholders. Note: that the above analysis assumes the company doesn't have significant excess cash on hand beyond what's required to run the business.

Enterprise value is calculated as Market Cap + Market Value of Debt Oustanding - Excess Cash. EV gets to the heart of what the operating assets of a company are being valued at. It's also how most M&A transactions get valued at, as you'll often read: "the deal was valued at 8x trailing EBITDA" where value is not market cap, but EV.

Onto the calculations:

AAPL: Market cap ($461.4) + debt ($0) - excess cash ($97B) = 363.8B EV
XOM: 406.6B + 16.8B - 46.3B = 377B EV

and so forth. MSFT has an EV of 211.5B and GOOG has an EV of 159.2B

As an aside, the reason you subtract out excess cash (of which Apple has some 97B) is because this can be considered a direct offset of debt (as the cash can be immediately used to pay down debt). Often times you'll hear EV being calculated as Market Cap + Net Debt (debt, net of cash) which is the same analysis as above. Hope this helps.

Why not simply use cash to offset debt in the calculation and add what's left back? In this model had Apple had $400B in cash it would be worthless. Or am I missing something lol
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post #77 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

Yeah, somebody always has a prediction that never fails. Millions of stopped clocks can't be wrong.

Anyhow, for a bit of market reality therapy, this story ran on NPR just this morning.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2012/...-mean-not-much

Something to consider.

2nd condescending put down today, I must be doing something right. LOL There is a historical track record of profit taking after a successful launch BTW.

I never see looking at the DOW or NASDAQ is being all that relevant to AAPL. Of course if the swing is a major catastrophe then yes, but not the day to day swings. Apple even defied the recent recession.
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post #78 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

First on AI: Apple's stock soared to new heights on Thursday, pushing the company's market capitalization to $456 billion, a number that is greater than the values of rivals Google and Microsoft combined.

Big deal... AAPL is only worth 4.5 x cash...
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post #79 of 191
P/E earnings is still low.

We're just seeing the tip of the iPad iceberg. Post-PC era is true, it's real, it's going to happen, it is happening. And the post-PC era isn't a tablet era, it's an iPad era.

Enterprise smartphone and tablet market might have reached an inflection point with Halli announcement (even though I hate the guts of that company, but that's immaterial), and today NOAA.

Macs at 5% (8%?) worldwide share and rising but still a long way to go.

Throw away all your rules of thumb about investing. Especially those along the lines of "it can't possibly get higher than this". Look at the numbers, look at the market potential out there, then make your best informed estimate.

And remember, this recession will not go on forever.
post #80 of 191
Quote:
Originally Posted by sflocal View Post

[Edit -Dang you Solips!!! You got me too!!! I didn't know you could erase text like the government does. Are you FBI?? ]

Nah, he's just testing your political persuasion.....
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