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With new iPad & Macs coming, $500 milestone seen as just the start for Apple stock - Page 2

post #41 of 50
2/15/12 at 3:17pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul94544 View Post

I sold my entire apple stake at $505 on Tuesday. If ever there was ever a sell signal the recent up tick is a classic example of one. Admittedly I didn't sell at the $525 top, but its really hard to figure out a top. Now look at it trading under 500 and all those fools who bought on $500+ hysteria on Wednesday are now looking at losses. I bought my stake at $364. I hope to try get back in at around 470-480 soon. I may even wait until after the iPad3 announcemnt or dollar cost average it for a few months. So far my portfolio is up 10% this year. I don't want to be too greedy and make mistakes. This cyclical bear market is tough one to time. my strategy is to jump in and out and not expose my self too much to the inevitable down periods that occur in a cyclical bear. Any time an analyst starts suggesting you can't afford not to be in the market is time to go to the sidelines. The competition in the TV and tablet market is only going to increase. I don't buy in to this idea that Apple is a complete lock. I'm an apple fan but not stupid like some.

Well, there definitely was a lot of profit taking today. Volume was quite high. I see no reason to believe that you won't get back in at $470. Hell, even a $10 difference can get you a couple of iPads on 100 shares.

Oh... just a thought... even if a person bought in at the $526 top today I still believe they will make some good money if they hang in for a while... so they aint fools yet... but that's just another opinion from some guy on the internet.
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post #42 of 50
2/15/12 at 11:01pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul94544 View Post

I sold my entire apple stake at $505 on Tuesday. If ever there was ever a sell signal the recent up tick is a classic example of one. Admittedly I didn't sell at the $525 top, but its really hard to figure out a top. Now look at it trading under 500 and all those fools who bought on $500+ hysteria on Wednesday are now looking at losses. I bought my stake at $364. I hope to try get back in at around 470-480 soon. I may even wait until after the iPad3 announcemnt or dollar cost average it for a few months. So far my portfolio is up 10% this year. I don't want to be too greedy and make mistakes. This cyclical bear market is tough one to time. my strategy is to jump in and out and not expose my self too much to the inevitable down periods that occur in a cyclical bear. Any time an analyst starts suggesting you can't afford not to be in the market is time to go to the sidelines. The competition in the TV and tablet market is only going to increase. I don't buy in to this idea that Apple is a complete lock. I'm an apple fan but not stupid like some.

Decent analysis. Apple is going good, but as the market cap grows, returns will be harder to come by. A lot of people will be looking to sell it right now.

By comparison, so far this year, the entire Hang Seng index is up nearly 20% (the Hong Kong stock exchange is my favorite place to trade by the way).
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post #43 of 50
2/16/12 at 9:44am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post

Decent analysis. Apple is going good, but as the market cap grows, returns will be harder to come by. A lot of people will be looking to sell it right now.

By comparison, so far this year, the entire Hang Seng index is up nearly 20% (the Hong Kong stock exchange is my favorite place to trade by the way).

I agree thanks for the tip about Hang Seng I will take a look 20% pretty decent return. my goal has always been to average 12% per year and not to get too greedy. Depending on where we are in econ cycle I vary my strategy to suit. This year, as I said, I'm trying to limit downside potential. I don't think holding Apple long is as safe as riding it up and down its quarterley rolling cycles. I just got back in again at $490 and will hold until Apple board meets to issue a dividend which will be I think around 2% or $8-10 a share then sell some. After that it will all depend on how new iPad3 sales and iTV does and the new MacBook Pros. I'm getting more in into energy stocks going forward as long as China's growth doesn't drop too much. However as usual I see oil going up as election approaches I bought into Chevron because it run the most efficient oil business right now.
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post #44 of 50
2/16/12 at 12:05pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul94544 View Post

I agree thanks for the tip about Hang Seng I will take a look 20% pretty decent return. my goal has always been to average 12% per year and not to get too greedy. Depending on where we are in econ cycle I vary my strategy to suit. This year, as I said, I'm trying to limit downside potential. I don't think holding Apple long is as safe as riding it up and down its quarterley rolling cycles. I just got back in again at $490 and will hold until Apple board meets to issue a dividend which will be I think around 2% or $8-10 a share then sell some. After that it will all depend on how new iPad3 sales and iTV does and the new MacBook Pros. I'm getting more in into energy stocks going forward as long as China's growth doesn't drop too much. However as usual I see oil going up as election approaches I bought into Chevron because it run the most efficient oil business right now.

Yeah I'm in some energy stocks right now (exploration companies in Kurdistan), and trade HK stocks - Geely and Lenovo have been good for me. I bought Apple at 360 a while back, out at 400 (nice trade at the time), but these days markets are going good, and smaller caps have more upside potential IMO. But I'm young and love risk.
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post #45 of 50
2/17/12 at 5:20am
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

AAPL is so overbought... I expect a story to hit the streets any second now stating that Apple sold 1 less iPhone than was expected in the last 45 days... an the stock will lose $50 in the first hour.

Manipulation is inevitable. But AAPL is ANYTHING but "overbought". It's simply correcting slightly, however since the Stock has been so manipulated and undervalued, it's correcting on the upside. It hasn't even reached near its corrected state, either.

This huge run up makes sense, and isn't even all so huge, considering the companies performance. The Stock should have broke $500 after they announced earnings, and kept going up from there (in a still valid P/E correction), if things were "fair".
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post #46 of 50
2/17/12 at 6:32am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Godzilla View Post

Manipulation is inevitable. But AAPL is ANYTHING but "overbought". It's simply correcting slightly, however since the Stock has been so manipulated and undervalued, it's correcting on the upside. It hasn't even reached near its corrected state, either.

This huge run up makes sense, and isn't even all so huge, considering the companies performance. The Stock should have broke $500 after they announced earnings, and kept going up from there (in a still valid P/E correction), if things were "fair".

Yes, it's overbought... in the chart reading sense of the word.

... and right now it appears to be bouncing off the 10 day.
We know where you are. We know where youve been. We can more or less know what youre thinking about. - Eric Schmidt
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We know where you are. We know where youve been. We can more or less know what youre thinking about. - Eric Schmidt
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post #47 of 50
2/17/12 at 7:23am
In the chart sense, yes, however, I never really go by charts as much as I do fundamentals (I gauge both, but much heavier toward fundamentals). I think it's just playing "catchup" to get to its usual level of undervalued-ness.
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post #48 of 50
2/17/12 at 7:44am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Godzilla View Post

In the chart sense, yes, however, I never really go by charts as much as I do fundamentals (I gauge both, but much heavier toward fundamentals). I think it's just playing "catchup" to get to its usual level of undervalued-ness.

but but but Netflix went up 3 times more than Apple so far this year...
We know where you are. We know where youve been. We can more or less know what youre thinking about. - Eric Schmidt
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We know where you are. We know where youve been. We can more or less know what youre thinking about. - Eric Schmidt
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post #49 of 50
2/17/12 at 11:51am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Godzilla View Post

In the chart sense, yes, however, I never really go by charts as much as I do fundamentals (I gauge both, but much heavier toward fundamentals). I think it's just playing "catchup" to get to its usual level of undervalued-ness.

Technical indicators are usually a better gauge of short term share price movement.

Fundamentals aren't always a reliable indicator. In Apple's case, they are trading at a very low PE ratio because their income is incredibly high relative to their revenue (as competition heats up, their margins could be squeezed), and because their market cap is already so huge.
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post #50 of 50
2/17/12 at 5:00pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

but but but Netflix went up 3 times more than Apple so far this year...

All the luck in the world to the bozo's making that dumb bet.

NFLX corrected to where it should have been (still was overvalued in my eyes). I think Traders are propping that thing up, and Sheep. AAPL seems to have played catchup off of fundamental balancing, in my eyes. Of course, if you're trading it, definitely agreed that watching charts is the way to go (short/immediate term). But in the general gist, it is fundamentally anything but overbought.
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