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Wall Street expects new iPad to continue dominating tablet market

post #1 of 39
Thread Starter 
Shortly after Apple unveiled the new iPad, Wall Street analysts weighed in with their opinions of the device. Most are predicting that it will help "cement" Apple's market dominance.

Apple's new iPad features a 2,048-by-1,536 pixel resolution Retina Display, a faster processor, LTE 4G, a 5-megapixel camera and voice dictation. The tablet goes on sale March 16 in 10 countries.

Though the third-generation iPad was largely in line with analysts' expectations leading up to Wednesday's media event, they view the new tablet as a positive for Apple and expect it to help the company widen its lead over its competitors.

Piper Jaffray

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster wrote in a note to investors that the new iPad is a "significant upgrade" to the iPad 2. He expects the device and a new version of iOS will help Apple maintain its lead in the tablet market.

Munster also noted that the lower-priced iPad 2 is "a strong defensive move" in the face of competition from Amazon's Kindle Fire and other budget tablets. The analyst does not expect the older entry-level iPad to cannibalize sales of the new model, noting instead that it will expand "Apple's addressable market in the rapidly growing tablet space."

The investment bank expects Apple will lead the tablet market to outgrow the PC market in the long term. Given the firm's long-term outlook, Munster cautioned that its current near-term estimate of 26 percent year-over-year unit growth may be too conservative. Piper Jaffray's estimate of 450 million tablet sales, including 225 million iPad sales, in 2016 implies an annual growth rate of 40 percent over the next four years.

The firm maintains an Overweight rating for Apple stock with a price target of $670.

UBS

Maynard Um reiterated UBS' Buy rating for Apple and its $550 price target. According to the analyst, the accelerated international launch of the new iPad could "provide upside" to estimates for the March quarter. Apple will launch its third-generation tablet first in 10 countries on March 16 and 25 more countries a week later. The company waited two weeks before going international with last year's iPad 2 launch.

UBS currently expects Apple to ship 12 million iPad units during the March quarter




RBC Capital Markets

Analyst Mike Abramsky said Wednesday he expects the new iPad to "maintain Apple's tablet dominance." According to him, Apple's "powerful ecosystem," which includes iTunes, iTunes Store, iCloud, iOS, App Store, and carrier/store distribution should help drive sales of the device.

RBC continues to expect Apple will ship 62 million iPads during calendar 2012, holding on to a 74 percent share of the tablet market. Abramsky viewed the third-generation iPad as "raising the performance bar" for tablets, since it has the highest-resolution screen on a tablet, a faster processor than the NVIDIA Tegra 3 and 4G LTE.

The analyst added that the cheaper iPad 2 should have a better appeal to price-sensitive buyers. An RBC survey from late last year found that 20 percent of non-iPad buyers were "likely" to purchase a $399 iPad 2.




Deutsche Bank

Chris Whitmore described Apple as "lapping the competition again" with the new iPad. The launch of the device arrived earlier than the analyst originally expected, so he also noted a potential upside in March quarter iPad sales.

Whitmore expressed the belief that Android and Windows tablet competitors will "have trouble matching" the price-performance specs of Apple's current iPad lineup. He expects Apple to "continue to dominate the category." The firm now believes its 60 million iPad estimate for 2012 is "beatable."

Deutsche Bank also believes developers will "flock" to the iPad's raw performance characteristics. A side-by-side comparison of the third-generation iPad and the iPad 2 showed that the new hardware was "particularly impressive" when running graphics intensive applications such as games or video content.

"We expect this upgrade to attract even more developers to the iOS platform (315M+ units shipped) whose new Apps (200K+ and counting) will attract even more users to the platform," he said.

Whitmore viewed the iPad ecosystem as winning out against its rivals. He pointed out that Windows 8 is receiving "mixed reviews" and is not expected until the second half of 2012. According to him, Android is in "disarray," making the iPad's value proposition for developers "abundantly clear."

J.P. Morgan

J.P. Morgan's Mark Moskowitz said the combination of upgrades in the new iPad should "cement Apple's market dominance in a preemptive response" to the flood of Windows 8 tablets later this year. He called the third-generation tablet a "quality" upgrade.

The analyst also marveled at Apple's ability to add LTE without compromising battery life. J.P. Morgan's research shows that battery issues have been an "impediment to broader manufacturing and adoption of 4G LTE-capable devices." As such, he noted Apple has having accomplished an "impressive feat" by dramatically improving iPad specs while maintaining 9-10 hours of battery life.

Moskowitz also said he expects comments from Apple CEO Tim Cook that there is "a lot to look forward to" from Apple in 2012 to stoke speculation about the rumored full-fledged TV offering. In the firm's view, Apple's leadership through innovation "stands to continue" and should drive the company's stock even higher.

Morgan Stanley

Katy Huberty told investors she expects the new iPad to "drive strong demand." The investment bank's model conservatively predicts a 1.2x unit increase in iPad shipments over the next four quarters as compared to the prior four. A 2.3x increase in iPad shipments occurred after the iPad 2 was introduced last year.

If the iPad were to continue growing at the 2.3x rate, Apple could ship as many as 90 million iPads this year. The firm currently expects shipments of 51 million units during 2012.

Morgan Stanley characterized Apple's price cut on the iPad 2 as an important move to "expand its addressable market and grow profit dollars." An earlier survey by the firm showed that Apple could stimulate 15-20 million incremental U.S. unit demand and 38 million global demand by lowering the iPad 2 price by $100. According to Huberty, each incremental one million iPads could add $0.20 of earnings per share.

The analyst does not expect the iPad 2 discount to affect Apple's gross margins. She estimates Apple has negotiated 20 percent annual component cost decreases from suppliers. Assuming a 30 percent shipment mix of cheaper iPads, the gross margin of the iPad would deteriorate by just half a point, Huberty noted.

[ View article on AppleInsider ]
post #2 of 39
Considering the trash that Android offers, the iPad2 itself would still dominate the market even if the iPad3 never came out. That's a testament to Apple's brand and pathetic for Android and it's fanboys that continue to defend its half-baked offerings all in the name of "open".

I'm waiting for Win8 to challenge the iPad.
post #3 of 39
iPad 2 still expected to dominate tablet market. In other news, rain still expected to be wet.
post #4 of 39
Wow, UBS is really going out on a limb there with an AAPL price target of $550.
post #5 of 39
In other news, Wall Street expects water to continue being wet.

Thanks Captain Obvious aka Wall Street analyst.
post #6 of 39
Jeez, there are so many clueless and dumb people on the internet. I've been reading some comments today on various sites, and certain people never learn. Some people, apparently born with underdeveloped brains, are calling this a minor upgrade. Others, who were obviously beaten and physically abused when they were children, are calling this an iPad 2S.\

The truth is that the new iPad will dominate like a motherfucker!

This is also good news for AAPL, and for those who are smart enough to hold that stock, because Apple is on a damn roll! And things are looking mighty good for 2012. I wonder if Apple is going to release preorder numbers soon? I expect them to be massive. I'm just happy that I managed to order one today, and I won't have to be standing in any ridiculous line come next week.
post #7 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shunnabunich View Post

iPad 2 still expected to dominate tablet market. In other news, rain still expected to be wet.

Lol!

I was typing the same thing as you.

Great minds think a alike!

I would've been 2nd post... if it weren't for those meddling kids!
post #8 of 39
I don't know guys, that Asus thingy has a docking station... Apple better watch out.
post #9 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Postulant View Post

I don't know guys, that Asus thingy has a docking station... Apple better watch out.

Yeah, the same people who like that tablet are probably the same clueless and backwards people who wish that they could use a mouse with their tablet.

Some people just don't get it, but that's ok. I suppose that It's good that options exist for such people. On a technological level, those people have the mindset of a neanderthal.
post #10 of 39
Android Tablets are soooooo lame. It seems that the tablet industry out side of Apple just doesn't get it. I think the only one that comes close is Samsung. Yet they cant keep up and innovate like Apple can. Samsung copies most of Apples iPad ideas. The iPad 3 will keep the the others way behind. LOL.
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post #11 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by sflocal View Post

I'm waiting for Win8 to challenge the iPad.

There are some really good things about Win8 and Metro for a touchscreen, but like WP7 it's not good enough, soon enough. In fact, the gap between iOS for iPad and Win8/Metro is wider than iOS for iPhone and WP7.5 and MS is still losing marketshare according to the last comScore.


Quote:
Originally Posted by MacQuest View Post

I would've been 2nd post... if it weren't for those darn meddling kids!

You sound like every Scooby Doo villian.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Postulant View Post

I don't know guys, that Asus thingy has a docking station... Apple better watch out.

Does Asus have a phone that fits into a notebook dock that fits into a keybaord dock?

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #12 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Jeez, there are so many clueless and dumb people on the internet. I've been reading some comments today on various sites, and certain people never learn. Some people, apparently born with underdeveloped brains, are calling this a minor upgrade. Others, who were obviously beaten and physically abused when they were children, are calling this an iPad 2S.\

The truth is that the new iPad will dominate like a motherfucker!

This is also good news for AAPL, and for those who are smart enough to hold that stock, because Apple is on a damn roll! And things are looking mighty good for 2012. I wonder if Apple is going to release preorder numbers soon? I expect them to be massive. I'm just happy that I managed to order one today, and I won't have to be standing in any ridiculous line come next week.

You see, if you would have said that colorful Mother Fuxxxx word in Mac Rumors they would ban you. Of course Mac Rumors is a pro communist organization.
An Apple man since 1977
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post #13 of 39
I hadn't realized that there were over a 100 different android tablets released last year. Where are they hiding?

And don't tell me underneath dust on store shelves.
post #14 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Postulant View Post

I hadn't realized that there were over a 100 different android tablets released last year. Where are they hiding?

And don't tell me underneath dust on store shelves.

Okay we won't tell you . . .

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

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post #15 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Postulant View Post

Where are they hiding?

And don't tell me underneath dust on store shelves.

Don't be ridiculous... they're still in boxes at the warehouse. Stores don't want 'em.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #16 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Don't be ridiculous... they're still in boxes at the warehouse. Stores don't want 'em.

That's funny. I remember reading a review of the PlayBook were the guy had literally planned to fly to Canada to return the review unit because RIM had no interest in getting it back. For 3 weeks they ignored his calls and emails. It wasn't until he threatened to kill himself, did they recover the unit...
post #17 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Jeez, there are so many clueless and dumb people on the internet. I've been reading some comments today on various sites, and certain people never learn. Some people, apparently born with underdeveloped brains, are calling this a minor upgrade.

The New York TImes, still smarting from being ignored by Apple, treated the news like it was a minor improvement bump.
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post #18 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by tylerk36 View Post

Android Tablets are soooooo lame. It seems that the tablet industry out side of Apple just doesn't get it. I think the only one that comes close is Samsung. Yet they cant keep up and innovate like Apple can. Samsung copies most of Apples iPad ideas. The iPad 3 will keep the the others way behind. LOL.

It's because most Android manufacturers make tablets as an afterthought. Samsung put way more effort into the Galaxy Note (5.3" phone) than any tablet. And large screened phones cannibalize most potential tablet sales. I personally have a 4.3" Android phone, why would I want an Android tablet with inferior specs and the same capabilities, especially when the 4.3" screen satisfies my craving for a larger device. A Galaxy Note is a tablet and a phone, so that's only 1 sale instead of a potential for 2 sales.

The iPad dominates because a 3.5" device is too small to use all the time, and because Apple puts alot of effort into making the iPad a great device to use. Apple executes perfectly the balance between making each device (phone, tablet, computer) useful on it's own, but just limited enough, but also integrated enough to encourage the buying of all 3 devices.

Asus is making IMO the only Android tablet that's interesting, but more to the technophile types. The Asus Padphone is incredibly innovative and interesting, but because it's a phone-tablet-laptop in one, has limited sales potential and will cannibalize sales of every category.
post #19 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post

It's because most Android manufacturers make tablets as an afterthought. Samsung put way more effort into the Galaxy Note (5.3" phone) than any tablet. And large screened phones cannibalize most potential tablet sales. I personally have a 4.3" Android phone, why would I want an Android tablet with inferior specs and the same capabilities, especially when the 4.3" screen satisfies my craving for a larger device. A Galaxy Note is a tablet and a phone, so that's only 1 sale instead of a potential for 2 sales.

The iPad dominates because a 3.5" device is too small to use all the time, and because Apple puts alot of effort into making the iPad a great device to use. Apple executes perfectly the balance between making each device (phone, tablet, computer) useful on it's own, but just limited enough, but also integrated enough to encourage the buying of all 3 devices.

Asus is making IMO the only Android tablet that's interesting, but more to the technophile types. The Asus Padphone is incredibly innovative and interesting, but because it's a phone-tablet-laptop in one, has limited sales potential and will cannibalize sales of every category.

Some interesting thoughts.

For me, anything less than about the iPad's size is of no use as a tablet and would better be thought of as a PDA. Also, I'm one 'technophile' who has no interest at all in Android (although I work with Linux and OS X). Regardless, opinions don't matter much, especially ours. Sales do the talking and profits provide the motivation for future developments and success. \

All the best.
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post #20 of 39
Gene Munster thinks Apple will lose nearly half their current market share by 2016 (95% down to 50%) ? Time to let Eddie Munster take over for dad.

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post #21 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd_in_sb View Post

Gene Munster thinks Apple will lose nearly half their current market share by 2016 (95% down to 50%) ? Time to let Eddie Munster take over for dad.

DigiTimes is reporting eInk display sourcing are down 65%. While it's hard to take anything they say seriously I can see how eInk could be faltering in favor of tablets the way the PMP market faltered with modern smartphones hitting the market.

I do think Munster is off. Amazon might be able to maintain some marketshare with their $199 tablet but with a $300 10" Kindle Fire the decision to buy it over the iPad will be harder as those could actually be iPad customers. Only time will tell but I think Apple just sealed the deal with the tablet market in only two years.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #22 of 39
"He expects the device and a new version of iOS will help Apple maintain its lead in the tablet market."

Gotta love those analysts! I think what he meant was that they "will help Apple maintain its lead in the iPad market."

Give us a job mate
post #23 of 39
Bringing out a $399 version of the iPad is a no-brainer and it pretty much kills the notion that there is a place in the Apple arsenal for a 7-inch tablet.

Fact is, no other manufacturer can offer a tablet that has all the good characteristics of the iPad 2 at anywhere near the $399 price point. Maybe some might be close to offering a 7-inch tablet in around $399 but if you compare side-by-side a 7-inch device and a 9.7-inch device, the larger unit absolutely wins out.

Really, other than for a rather inconsequential niche group, for most needs, the larger screen is a plus.

Best of all, delivering a high-resolution premium-grade tablet for a starting price of $499 sets the bar so high, I just don't know what competing manufacturers can do to gain a foothold in this rapidly growing market.

Where I see some need for change is in Apple's approach to the Touch. There is a need for a computer that can comfortably be carried in one's pocket but additional screen real estate enhances the user experience. Whatever activity one could imagine using the Touch for, it is more enjoyable as the screen gets larger. So the ideal size for the Touch, as I see it, is the largest size at which the device retains its convenience as a pocketable device. That isn't, I believe, 3.5 inches. The Vita, which is the biggest threat to the Touch, has a 5-inch screen. Something similar like a 4.7-inch screen would likely hit the sweet spot and since the Touch doesn't have the physical controls of the Vita, it would be smaller in overall dimensions.

For now, though, Apple absolutely owns the tablet market it basically created and the Touch is a minor hobby in comparison.
post #24 of 39
Reading all these posts got me to thinking that dropping the price of the iPad 2 to $399 puts so much pressure on anyone selling a 10" tablet now or thinking about selling a 10" tablet (Amazon??).
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post #25 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

Jeez, there are so many clueless and dumb people on the internet. I've been reading some comments today on various sites, and certain people never learn. Some people, apparently born with underdeveloped brains, are calling this a minor upgrade. Others, who were obviously beaten and physically abused when they were children, are calling this an iPad 2S.\

The truth is that the new iPad will dominate like a motherfucker!

This is also good news for AAPL, and for those who are smart enough to hold that stock, because Apple is on a damn roll! And things are looking mighty good for 2012. I wonder if Apple is going to release preorder numbers soon? I expect them to be massive. I'm just happy that I managed to order one today, and I won't have to be standing in any ridiculous line come next week.

Arrogant people often try to prop up an elitist image of themselves in their minds by making it seem like nothing is good enough to satisfy them...especially when talking about something that is really popular. These are the same kind of people who are never satisfied with a great blockbuster movie for one reason or another. They will say it "...had too much CGI..." or something like that. Nothing is ever good enough for them. It might be good enough for you because you are not a discerning elitist like them...but it is not good enough for them.

They irritate me to no end.
post #26 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Postulant View Post

I don't know guys, that Asus thingy has a docking station... Apple better watch out.

Yep. And Samsung has a stylus. Apple is doomed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post

The New York TImes, still smarting from being ignored by Apple, treated the news like it was a minor improvement bump.

These analysts and journalists (almost all of them) are total idiots. Let's see if we can figure this out:
1. Apple absolutely dominates the full sized tablet market. No one else has even a tiny fraction of Apple's share. Amazon does OK with a low-end, entry level Fire, but Apple's own studies show that the Fire has not impacted their sales, so it's apparently an entirely unconnected niche. No one else has anything close.

2. Apple releases a substantial upgrade. They go from having a good screen to having a screen that is without compare. Their new processor is twice the speed of the vaunted Tegra 3. The price is the same as the old model.

3. They continue to have massive success with their app sales, passing 25 billion downloads (more than 3 for every single person on the planet).

4. The price of the old one (which is already better than anything else out there) is reduced by $100.

5. So if they lead the market already and then introduce a new product at the same price, while lowering the price of the old one, why is there any question of whether Apple would continue to dominate?

Quote:
Originally Posted by prosp View Post

Reading all these posts got me to thinking that dropping the price of the iPad 2 to $399 puts so much pressure on anyone selling a 10" tablet now or thinking about selling a 10" tablet (Amazon??).

Especially since the iPad 2 is already better than the competition in so many ways.
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post #27 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Postulant View Post

I don't know guys, that Asus thingy has a docking station... Apple better watch out.

The Asus is actually a very nice device. The docking station is extra, not much different from the Bluetooth keyboard available for the iPad.
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post #28 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post

The New York TImes, still smarting from being ignored by Apple, treated the news like it was a minor improvement bump.

The New York Times is embarrassing itself with its tech reporters (with the exception of Pogue, who, I guess, is more of a reviewer). A pretty shallow, uninformed bunch.

Btw, they changed their headline on the story after all the comments they got! Can you believe that?
post #29 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by sflocal View Post

Considering the trash that Android offers, the iPad2 itself would still dominate the market even if the iPad3 never came out. That's a testament to Apple's brand and pathetic for Android and it's fanboys that continue to defend its half-baked offerings all in the name of "open".

I'm waiting for Win8 to challenge the iPad.

My guess on the Win8 challenge is that we will see a situation similar to Microsoft's success in taking on iPods with the Zune with the same outcome.
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Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
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post #30 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

DigiTimes is reporting eInk display sourcing are down 65%. While it's hard to take anything they say seriously I can see how eInk could be faltering in favor of tablets the way the PMP market faltered with modern smartphones hitting the market.

I do think Munster is off. Amazon might be able to maintain some marketshare with their $199 tablet but with a $300 10" Kindle Fire the decision to buy it over the iPad will be harder as those could actually be iPad customers. Only time will tell but I think Apple just sealed the deal with the tablet market in only two years.

As one analyst said, Apple just lapped the rest of them. I can't wait to see what they already have cooking for the next two years. I have always thought a much larger pro pad is a possibility, that is one designed not to be carried rather used on a desk on a stand set at a nice comfortable angle. Not that it would necessarily be called a pad if it were large ... Maybe that's a 'slate'.
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post #31 of 39
Isn't iPad THE tablet market??? just saying.

A better statistic than how many iPads were sold vs PC's from vendors would have been how many sold vs ALL other tablets.... Anyone else want to see that statistic???? Maybe the numbers were statistically insignificant.

Tom
post #32 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Don't be ridiculous... they're still in boxes at the warehouse. Stores don't want 'em.

Thanks. You saved me the time of having to post that fact myself.
post #33 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by icoco3 View Post

A better statistic ..... would have been how many (iPads) sold vs ALL other tablets....

They won't tell us beyond "number 1 Bestselling Product on Amazon" (the whole Kindle range that is) or "Sales are quite small/smooth" (thank you Samsung).
post #34 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Don't be ridiculous... they're still in boxes at the warehouse. Stores don't want 'em.

Marked as 'sold', obviously, not 'shipped'.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AdyB View Post

They won't tell us beyond "number 1 Bestselling Product on Amazon" (the whole Kindle range that is)

Ah, they only say "world's best-selling eReader". And they've only said "our best-selling product" before, meaning 'of the products that Amazon itself makes'.

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post #35 of 39
If Gene Munster's predictions are right...

225 million iPads x $600 ASP = $135 billion revenue x 25% margin = $34 billion profit

$34 Billion x 15 PE Ratio = $510 billion market value

In other words, if this turns out to be true, the iPad alone is worth Apple's current market value and stock price

I use to think $1,000/share was a stretch. No more

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post #36 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Postulant View Post

I don't know guys, that Asus thingy has a docking station... Apple better watch out.

Are you talking about the Phonepad? It's a phone, no it's a tablet, no it's a phone and a tablet! I could see John Lovitz pitching that in an SNL skit. I saw the video of that fool CEO trying to be like Steve when he introduced the product. I felt embarrassed for the guy.
post #37 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Don't be ridiculous... they're still in boxes at the warehouse. Stores don't want 'em.

Not true, warehouses don't want them either. i bet the Android tabs are cozying up to "ET the video game" in a landfill somewhere.

I'm waiting for an ipad with a docking station, stylus, physical keyboard, attached printer, time machine.

The $400 ipad 2 is gonna kill any android tablets left and may put a hurting on the Fire.
post #38 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd_in_sb View Post

Gene Munster thinks Apple will lose nearly half their current market share by 2016 (95% down to 50%) ? Time to let Eddie Munster take over for dad.

I think he just wants to throw off these predictions once in a while because he fears that he gets accused of being an Apple fan boy a little too often.
post #39 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by tundraboy View Post

I think he just wants to throw off these predictions once in a while because he fears that he gets accused of being an Apple fan boy a little too often.

What's that saying? "Reality has an Apple bias"?
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