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Led by Apple's iPad, tablet sales seen exceeding desktop PCs in 2013

post #1 of 39
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Industry insiders now believe there will be greater consumer demand for the rapidly expanding tablet market, led by Apple's iPad, than there will be for desktop PCs in 2013.

Global tablet sales are expected by Taiwan-based PC makers to reach 130 million next year, DigiTimes. That could be enough to exceed worldwide demand for traditional desktop PCs.

Total worldwide tablet sales in 2011 were said to be 60 million units, with Apple accounting for 40 million of those. Industrywide sales are expected to reach 90 million to 95 million units in 2012, with Apple's new Retina Display iPad the most popular option among consumers.

"Since more tablet PC hybrids will appear in 2013 with some even featuring traditional PC functions, the tablet PC market is likely to enjoy surging growth similar to that of the smartphone market, helping its shipments to trail closely behind global network shipments," the report said.

Late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs predicted the market transition in 2010, when the iPad was still new to the market. Speaking at the All Things D conference, he said the transformation from traditional PCs to new form factors like the tablet is "inevitable."




Jobs compared the coming market shift to a time in the U.S. automobile industry when most vehicles were trucks, because they were driven by farmers. But as cities rose, cars became more popular, and smaller cars gained features like power steering and automatic transition over time.

"PCs are going to be like trucks," Jobs said, noting that they would still be around, but would represent a smaller number of people.

In unveiling the new iPad this week, Apple's executives repeatedly spoke of "post-PC," a term they use to refer to the iPad. For Apple, the iPad already easily outsells the Mac, as last quarter it sold three times as many iPads as Macs.

In fact, if iPad sales are included alongside Macs, Apple is already the largest PC maker in the world. Data released in January from Canalys showed that categorizing the iPad as a PC allowed Apple to leapfrog HP to become the world's No. 1 PC vendor.

Though mobile laptops have taken over the PC industry, desktops remain an important part of the market. Apple has found its greatest success with the iMac, which accounts for nearly a third of all-in-one desktop PC sales. Portable MacBooks, however, still account for about three-quarters of all Mac sales.

[ View article on AppleInsider ]
post #2 of 39
It's not hard to envision the new standard for your digital life to be iMac as your base home "computer", the iPad for portability at home and away and the iPhone for communication. Throw in an Apple TV or the potentially new Apple Television and you've got all bases covered.
post #3 of 39
I think this prediction originated with Horace Dediu over at Asymco. He's predicting 100% growth in iPad sales this year and next, 80% for Android and 7% for Windows. If it all falls as he thinks then it's possible tablets could outsell pc's by the end of 2013.

http://www.asymco.com/2012/03/02/whe...the-pc-market/

BTW, the picture could change significantly if Apple does morph the MacBooks into tablet pc's. Remember ASUS building a tablet with a slot for a smartphone, calling it the PadFone? I think the next evolution could be Apple combining their notebook, tablet and smartphone in a similar do-it-all form. Intel is moving in that direction and various Apple patents and trademarks point that way too.
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post #4 of 39
What are people like me going to do who rely on the Mac Pro for 3D modeling, and animation? The iPad just won't cut it for me. I think Apple is just about ready to kill the Mac Pro.
post #5 of 39
I am looking forward to reading AI in five years and looking back to this. By then the interesting thing will be to see what companies are left standing. This is going to ravage the PC clone makers to the point of extinction for many and their attempts to make a tablet will probably accelerate their demise. Unless Microsoft can manage to come up with an mobile OS that gets traction they face a bleak future by fast too. That leaves Google and a few companies battling over the lower end of the phone market but even that starts to get hard if all the tablets are iPads.
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post #6 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I am looking forward to reading AI in five years and looking back to this. By then the interesting thing will be to see what companies are left standing. This is going to ravage the PC clone makers to the point of extinction for many and their attempts to make a tablet will probably accelerate their demise. Unless Microsoft can manage to come up with an mobile OS that gets traction they face a bleak future by fast too. That leaves Google and a few companies battling over the lower end of the phone market but even that starts to get hard if all the tablets are iPads.

I think the iPad as we see it now may not even exist in another two years. See my edit above.
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post #7 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by tony3d View Post

What are people like me going to do who rely on the Mac Pro for 3D modeling, and animation? The iPad just won't cut it for me. I think Apple is just about ready to kill the Mac Pro.

I hope not ... After all we need trucks!
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post #8 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by tony3d View Post

What are people like me going to do who rely on the Mac Pro for 3D modeling, and animation? The iPad just won't cut it for me.

Then you continue to use a Mac Pro.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tony3d View Post

I think Apple is just about ready to kill the Mac Pro.

There's no evidence of that.
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Gatorguy 5/31/13
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"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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post #9 of 39
I wonder if the "Tablet" market is starting to face the same degree of hype that the netbook market was receiving not that long ago. There is a market for cheap n cheerful netbooks but not to the levels previously forecast by some, whilst Apple never went into this area, instead playing a higher spec, price and functionality card with the MacBook Air.

I wonder if the same thing will happen with tablets, with cheaper, more limited devices selling for a while but demand for them falling away whereas higher end devices will continue to sell?
post #10 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I think the iPad as we see it now may not even exist in another two years. See my edit above.

I agree the morphing will continue in all directions. Along with portable versions I predict large tablet devices to use on the desk top and I see communications possibly coming to the tablets too, after all why pick up another device if you could tap an icon to talk to someone. The iPad as we know it will be very powerful in five years and maybe very different for sure.

I also predict Windows 8 is DOA for this reason. MS went out of their way to create something that wasn't a copy of iOS, to their credit, but Apple spent a very long time designing the best possible user experience and a new OS from the ground up. By simply bringing out an adapted version of the same old thing only mobile, MS has totally missed the point, it's not about simply being mobile and not looking like iOS ... It's about a decade of research and development.

I truly believe Apple had a detailed long term plan which they have been working towards as technology becomes possible and we only get to see a small part each time they release products and services. All their competition are blindly reacting to these releases by copying and rushing me too products to market. Their products a not part of any long term, coordinated plan like Apple's and we see them dropping like flies every month.
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post #11 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

I think the iPad as we see it now may not even exist in another two years. See my edit above.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tony3d View Post

What are people like me going to do who rely on the Mac Pro for 3D modeling, and animation? The iPad just won't cut it for me. I think Apple is just about ready to kill the Mac Pro.

My guess is in five years you and I will be using a very large touch based based system that is designed for pros and for creation. It will be as big of a leap forward as the Mac and a mouse was over the IBM PC that used DOS and a keyboard. When we introduced folks to the Mac many screamed they needed a command line and could not see the future of creativity unleashed by the mouse and a GUI. I suspect in five years we will look back at the OS X GUI and remember fondly as we use a touch interface, artificial intelligence, voice input and cloud services on a large screen and will be many times more productive. By the way the screens will be angled for comfort not verticle all the time ...
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post #12 of 39
I still use my Mac the most.

iPod nano 5th Gen 8GB Orange, iPad 3rd Gen WiFi 32GB White
MacBook Pro 15" Core i7 2.66GHz 8GB RAM 120GB Intel 320M
Mac mini Core 2 Duo 2.4GHz 8GB RAM, iPhone 5 32GB Black

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iPod nano 5th Gen 8GB Orange, iPad 3rd Gen WiFi 32GB White
MacBook Pro 15" Core i7 2.66GHz 8GB RAM 120GB Intel 320M
Mac mini Core 2 Duo 2.4GHz 8GB RAM, iPhone 5 32GB Black

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post #13 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I am looking forward to reading AI in five years and looking back to this. By then the interesting thing will be to see what companies are left standing. This is going to ravage the PC clone makers to the point of extinction for many and their attempts to make a tablet will probably accelerate their demise. Unless Microsoft can manage to come up with an mobile OS that gets traction they face a bleak future by fast too. That leaves Google and a few companies battling over the lower end of the phone market but even that starts to get hard if all the tablets are iPads.

You are assuming that the tablets are replacing desktop/laptops. To some extent they are but mostly they are in addition to.

For myself, I could see everyone in my family (4) having a tablet but we would still have the need for the traditional PC (1 desktop and at least one laptop). At work I can't think of anyone who would get a tablet if that meant they had to give up their PC.

With the exception of the AIR class laptop the PC market is close to saturated so there won't be much growth but there will still be the need for a steady supply of replacements.
post #14 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by tony3d View Post

What are people like me going to do who rely on the Mac Pro for 3D modeling, and animation? The iPad just won't cut it for me. I think Apple is just about ready to kill the Mac Pro.

The iPad has enough horsepower run OSX. It is a matter of time... As for size I just bought a Samsung Series 7 with 4GB of RAM and the l5 CPU for 3D modeling.
post #15 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Touch1 View Post

The iPad has enough horsepower run OSX. It is a matter of time... As for size I just bought a Samsung Series 7 with 4GB of RAM and the l5 CPU for 3D modeling.

updated.
post #16 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Touch1 View Post

The iPad has enough horsepower run OSX. It is a matter of time

No, it will never happen.

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

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Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

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post #17 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Touch1 View Post

The iPad has enough horsepower run OSX. It is a matter of time... As for size I just bought a Samsung Series 7 with 4GB of RAM and the l5 CPU for 3D modeling.

I tried imovie on the iPad and was totally frustrated. It takes a lot of horsepower and memory to edit video. I just got my son an I7 with 8 Gb. This was a step up from an older quad core AMD and 4 Gb. His comment was that Adobe finally runs properly. .

As an aside, the school he is attending is is likely going to replace FCP with either adobe or avid. They don't seem to be impressed with fcpx.

Apple made a wise business decision to focus on the mass consumer market vs the pro market. It doesn't bother me, but I can understand how the pro user feels abandoned.
post #18 of 39
DigiTimes says that 130 million non-iPad tablets will be sold in 2013? That seems highly unlikely.

Please update the AppleInsider app to function in landscape mode.

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Please update the AppleInsider app to function in landscape mode.

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post #19 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd_in_sb View Post

DigiTimes says that 130 million non-iPad tablets will be sold in 2013? That seems highly unlikely.

It's DigiTimes; did you expect otherwise?

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

Reply

Originally Posted by Slurpy

There's just a TINY chance that Apple will also be able to figure out payments. Oh wait, they did already… …and you’re already f*ed.

 

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post #20 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by tjwal View Post

You are assuming that the tablets are replacing desktop/laptops. To some extent they are but mostly they are in addition to.

For myself, I could see everyone in my family (4) having a tablet but we would still have the need for the traditional PC (1 desktop and at least one laptop). At work I can't think of anyone who would get a tablet if that meant they had to give up their PC.

With the exception of the AIR class laptop the PC market is close to saturated so there won't be much growth but there will still be the need for a steady supply of replacements.

I disagree on the home user front. It's just a matter of time. The vast majority of home users with a PC (by which I mean a Wintel box) who get an iPad will never bother getting another PC. A tremendous number of PC sales to home users was done by offing another one cheaper than the cost of fixing their screwed up OS by nerds and shops alike. These folks only used them for email, web browsing and dealing with their digital music and photos plus games. Once they have had an iPad for a while the thought of getting another PC Will be far from their minds.

I agree those of us with higher computing needs will be using both for a few years to come. I do in fact see the Mac user base growing for some time to come.
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post #21 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I agree the morphing will continue in all directions. Along with portable versions I predict large tablet devices to use on the desk top and I see communications possibly coming to the tablets too, after all why pick up another device if you could tap an icon to talk to someone. The iPad as we know it will be very powerful in five years and maybe very different for sure.

I also predict Windows 8 is DOA for this reason. MS went out of their way to create something that wasn't a copy of iOS, to their credit, but Apple spent a very long time designing the best possible user experience and a new OS from the ground up. By simply bringing out an adapted version of the same old thing only mobile, MS has totally missed the point, it's not about simply being mobile and not looking like iOS ... It's about a decade of research and development.

I truly believe Apple had a detailed long term plan which they have been working towards as technology becomes possible and we only get to see a small part each time they release products and services. All their competition are blindly reacting to these releases by copying and rushing me too products to market. Their products a not part of any long term, coordinated plan like Apple's and we see them dropping like flies every month.

I think you've pretty well encapsulated what's going to go down. I agree, too, that MS is going to sit out the digital revolution until it's all but passed by.

One thing I would dispute is your concept of an all-in-one. I think there will be a place for a physical phone and a tablet and maybe even a non-portable computer. While they may be distinct form factors and individual units ion one hand, they will be cloud connected, making them a single data device.
"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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post #22 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

My guess is in five years you and I will be using a very large touch based based system that is designed for pros and for creation. It will be as big of a leap forward as the Mac and a mouse was over the IBM PC that used DOS and a keyboard. When we introduced folks to the Mac many screamed they needed a command line and could not see the future of creativity unleashed by the mouse and a GUI. I suspect in five years we will look back at the OS X GUI and remember fondly as we use a touch interface, artificial intelligence, voice input and cloud services on a large screen and will be many times more productive. By the way the screens will be angled for comfort not verticle all the time ...

I remember how the IT people of the day dismissed color displays as non-professional and worthless. After all, nothing is better on the eyes then a black screen with green text and a pulsating cursor. Color...bah!
"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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post #23 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I disagree on the home user front. It's just a matter of time. The vast majority of home users with a PC (by which I mean a Wintel box) who get an iPad will never bother getting another PC. A tremendous number of PC sales to home users was done by offing another one cheaper than the cost of fixing their screwed up OS by nerds and shops alike. These folks only used them for email, web browsing and dealing with their digital music and photos plus games. Once they have had an iPad for a while the thought of getting another PC Will be far from their minds.

I agree those of us with higher computing needs will be using both for a few years to come. I do in fact see the Mac user base growing for some time to come.

Both my wife and I occassionally bring work home we need a PC. I don't think that is unusual. Even without bringing work home we still use excel and word for personal business. Likewise I think a laptop is still a better choice for a student than a iPad. Best choice is a laptop along with an iPad tho. Being a baby boomer with aging eyes I'm waiting for a 15" iPad. Maybe then I can ditch the PC.
post #24 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by tjwal View Post

Both my wife and I occassionally bring work home we need a PC. I don't think that is unusual. Even without bringing work home we still use excel and word for personal business. Likewise I think a laptop is still a better choice for a student than a iPad. Best choice is a laptop along with an iPad tho. Being a baby boomer with aging eyes I'm waiting for a 15" iPad. Maybe then I can ditch the PC.

Oh yes I agree on a larger iPad ... I'd love one!
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post #25 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post

I think you've pretty well encapsulated what's going to go down. I agree, too, that MS is going to sit out the digital revolution until it's all but passed by.

One thing I would dispute is your concept of an all-in-one. I think there will be a place for a physical phone and a tablet and maybe even a non-portable computer. While they may be distinct form factors and individual units ion one hand, they will be cloud connected, making them a single data device.

Oh I agree, I wasn't suggesting all in one as such ... rather a phone capability as well if needed on the iPad of the future. If alone why not chat using the iPad but if others are around I'd pick up my iPhone .. and obviously when not at my iPad.


My guess is MS will be to computing what Kodak was to digital photography.
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post #26 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post

I remember how the IT people of the day dismissed color displays as non-professional and worthless. After all, nothing is better on the eyes then a black screen with green text and a pulsating cursor. Color...bah!

LOL, yep I had to live through that! Of course there were some radical users that went for orange text
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post #27 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by tony3d View Post

What are people like me going to do who rely on the Mac Pro for 3D modeling, and animation? The iPad just won't cut it for me. I think Apple is just about ready to kill the Mac Pro.

Mac mini based render farm - iPad, iMac or whatever controls the front end, scalable low end server farm to do the rendering
post #28 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd_in_sb View Post

DigiTimes says that 130 million non-iPad tablets will be sold in 2013? That seems highly unlikely.

Maybe that many will be made, shipped to stores, returned or sold at a loss to clear inventory ... the term 'sold' is the part of the claim by DigiTimes that may be a little loose on its definition. Perhaps 'sold at a profit to end users that love them' would be a better definition if trying to make predictions that are credible in the context of competing with iPads.
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post #29 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

LOL, yep I had to live through that! Of course there were some radical users that went for orange text

I guess I must have been a radical!! The green phosphors used in crts emit at two different wavelengths. Since these focus at different distances the theory was that your eye was constanty adjusting. The orange phosphors emitted at a single wavelength so it was easier on the eyes. That was the theory anyway.
post #30 of 39
Not a single mention of Windows 8? Very well, carry on as if it doesn't exist.

Given Dell, HP, Samsung and others will produce Win8 slates, I think it will do fine.
post #31 of 39
Isn't it obvious?

Mac Pro/ PC workstations: for serious math, 3D, and graphics professionals, serious gamers.
iMacs/PC desktops: serious home use or work use for developers and users of apps like office, etc.
Laptops: mobile use of the above
iPads/tablets: email, Internet, wathing videos, casual gaming, casual computing at home and on the go
iPhones/phones: mobile access of the above

The iPad can't replace everything for everyone, but it can replace a traditional pc/laptop for many. It Is filling a niche people used to fill with a laptop or desktop. My parents don't need a desktop and an iPad would be perfect for them. No more confusing desktop OS to learn.

There will always be laptops and desktops, but now there will be far less sold as iPads are purchased instead by those who don't need a full pc.

The Pc market will shrink, but there will always be pcs just like there are still SUVs at $4 gas.

And I think apple will release a laptop with a strip down of OSX. It will run a version of iOS and have a Limited file system and be like a netbook, only different. When? Dunno, but it will be alongside real MacBook Pros but cost a lot less.

Apple will never stop making full-blown Mac Pros and MBPs, and they will continue to fill a gap the iPad cannot. But eventually, iPads will be pretty damn powerful and cheaper than bulky desktops. Maybe even tiny desktops that are just non-portable iPads? Four years of products were in the pipeline before Jobs died. I think the best is yet to come and the transformation of the consumer PC is just beginning.
post #32 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by win View Post

Not a single mention of Windows 8? Very well, carry on as if it doesn't exist.

Given Dell, HP, Samsung and others will produce Win8 slates, I think it will do fine.

Since there isn't even a release date for windows 8 I think we indeed should carry on as if it doesn't exist, because it doesnt yet. When it does exist and if dell, hp, Samsung and others produce win8 slates we'll have something to discuss.
post #33 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Touch1 View Post

The iPad has enough horsepower run OSX. It is a matter of time... As for size I just bought a Samsung Series 7 with 4GB of RAM and the l5 CPU for 3D modeling.

Enough horsepower yes, but you can't run x86 (Intel Chipset) apps natively on an ARM device... So all those OSX apps would have to be ported, run in a VM (which no current ARM device could do efficiently), or there'd have to be an x86 powered iPad.
post #34 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by tony3d View Post

What are people like me going to do who rely on the Mac Pro for 3D modeling, and animation? The iPad just won't cut it for me. I think Apple is just about ready to kill the Mac Pro.

Well you could always buy a truck and take up farming.
post #35 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by tjwal View Post

I guess I must have been a radical!! The green phosphors used in crts emit at two different wavelengths. Since these focus at different distances the theory was that your eye was constanty adjusting. The orange phosphors emitted at a single wavelength so it was easier on the eyes. That was the theory anyway.

I admit I liked the orange screens on my XTs and Risk mini best too but I think it was because it made me think of orange juice. I even had an Osborn Portable with orange as my choice of screen. My Apple /// s were all green but by then I had color on my Apple ][s using modified TVs ... Was that rad or what! Then my two Lisas were black on white and that was the best by far then.
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post #36 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mikeb85 View Post

Enough horsepower yes, but you can't run x86 (Intel Chipset) apps natively on an ARM device... So all those OSX apps would have to be ported, run in a VM (which no current ARM device could do efficiently), or there'd have to be an x86 powered iPad.

Its not a question of horsepower as much as interface. I do a bit of work in 3D modeling, and even a 15 inch laptop without an extended keyboard lowers productivity. You really need a big monitor (or three) and different input devices.
post #37 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I disagree on the home user front. It's just a matter of time. The vast majority of home users with a PC (by which I mean a Wintel box) who get an iPad will never bother getting another PC. A tremendous number of PC sales to home users was done by offing another one cheaper than the cost of fixing their screwed up OS by nerds and shops alike. These folks only used them for email, web browsing and dealing with their digital music and photos plus games. Once they have had an iPad for a while the thought of getting another PC Will be far from their minds.

I agree those of us with higher computing needs will be using both for a few years to come. I do in fact see the Mac user base growing for some time to come.

I don't see people being happy, holding a tiny 9.7" screen hours on end, and there are some things that a mouse + KB still do better. Also, until there is some sort of dock that allows for the connection of additional storage, monitors, input devices, an iPad just won't replace my PC with ~5-6 TB of storage, 8 GB RAM, 3 monitors, etc any time soon - tying to edit a bunch of RAW files on a tablet with limited storage and screen size for an extended period...no.

I could see getting an iPad over replacing my Mac, but my Mac was never my primary computer, and with how iCloud/iWork is improving on the iOS side, there really isn't much I couldn't do on an iPad in comparison, but I still couldn't see myself using it for more than an hour or two at a time, not without a dock, etc.
post #38 of 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by guinness View Post

I don't see people being happy, holding a tiny 9.7" screen hours on end, and there are some things that a mouse + KB still do better.

I could see getting an iPad over replacing my Mac, but my Mac was never my primary computer, and with how iCloud/iWork is improving on the iOS side, there really isn't much I couldn't do on an iPad in comparison.

So we agree.
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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post #39 of 39
We are now entering the point where all possible input means a human being can use to communicate with a computer are possible :

- mouse/keyboard
- gestures (in the air or on a surface, with or without a stylus)
- voice

The iDevices combine some of these, but the presence (or not) of a physical keyboard discriminates, as well as the mobile nature (or not) for the time being.

Gestures on a surface implies to hold the device more or less horizontally, whereas mouse/keyboard imply the user to be seated, and the screen to be more or less vertical. This is , I believe, the reason for having separate devices (at least as long as the mouse/keyboard couple will survive).

To me , one of the most fascinating aspects of the iDevices is to be able to completely hide the file system notion. I wonder if this notion will survive. I am convinced (especially when I see my kids using our Macs) that the average current user does note want to care any more about organizing his data (and probably has become much too lazy for this).
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