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Apple projected to sell at least 1 million of new iPad on launch day

post #1 of 35
Thread Starter 
This Friday's iPad launch will be another blockbuster for Apple, with one new analysis projecting that the company will sell at least one million on the first day alone.

Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said in a note to investors on Monday that he expects Apple will sell more than a million iPads on Friday when the new model hits shelves. That would be a positive for the company, which has likely seen iPad sales slow down after the holidays in anticipation of a new model.

Wall Street watchers generally expect Apple will sell about 10.1 million iPads in the current March quarter. Sales of one million in just one day would go a long way toward exceeding that projection for the three-month period.

"That said, even if iPad sales are less than 10 (million) in (the March quarter), we see it as a win-win given investors will attribute the miss to a slowdown ahead of the new iPad and start to anticipate a strong rebound in the June-12 quarter," Munster wrote.

Back in 2010, Apple sold more than 300,000 iPads on the first-generation product's launch day. Supply for the iPad 2 launch was very constrained, and Apple did not give a launch-day sales figure.

For the third-generation iPad launch, Munster drew a comparison to the iPhone 4 debut in 2010. He noted that since the launch of the first iPad, Apple has sold just over 55 million iPads, while the iPhone 4 debuted in 5 countries after Apple had sold over 50 million iPhones through the March 2010 quarter.




"The company took 600 (thousand) pre-orders in one day (6/5/10) before systems were overloaded and pre-orders were halted," Munster wrote. "Then on 6/24 retail sales began and by 6/26 (with 3 days of sales) the company had sold 1.7 (million) iPHone 4 units. Given the new iPad will be sold in 12 countries on 3/16, we are confident the company will sell over 1 (million) on launch day."

As of Monday, new iPad orders have an estimated shipping date of two to three weeks. Shipping dates began to slip last Friday, after the new iPad was available for preorder for less than two days.

[ View article on AppleInsider ]
post #2 of 35
mine is at ontario CA now.
post #3 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Analyst Gene Munster

Say no more!
post #4 of 35
I'm predicting more...more like 2 million over the entire weekend. Does that make me an analyst? Can you pay me now?
post #5 of 35
Wall Street finds themselves in chaos when the heads of every analyst in the industry suddenly exploded after Apple announced selling 20 million iPads on launch day


I wish

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

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post #6 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

Wall Street finds themselves in chaos when the heads of every analyst in the industry suddenly exploded after Apple announced selling 20 million iPads on launch day


I wish

Well I'd bet that if they actually had that many on hand at launch they would sell them.
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post #7 of 35
It does not matter what they do on day one. In 12 months, 60 million units is very likely. If they can manufacture more and expand distribution, I can see 80 million in 12 months.
post #8 of 35
"At least 1,000,000"? Pre-orders arriving on launch day are considered launch day sales with launch day as the 16th, no? Add in-store sales and the 1,000,000 seems pretty low to me.

But I'm just another arm-chair analyst.
post #9 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleGreen View Post

It does not matter what they do on day one. In 12 months, 60 million units is very likely. If they can manufacture more and expand distribution, I can see 80 million in 12 months.

One ipad for every man, women, and child!!!
post #10 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by jinjo235 View Post

I'm predicting more...more like 2 million over the entire weekend. Does that make me an analyst? Can you pay me now?

For the weekend I'm thinking that is low. The iPhone 4S topped 4 million the first weekend with sales in 7 countries. Granted, the iPhone is cheaper out the door and more of a necessity than the iPad but the iPad is going on sale in 10 countries and has no market competition. I think 2 million would be the low tend for the entire weekend. I'd like to say that 2.5 to 3 million seems more right but without having any info on the iPad 2 first day or weekend sales I won't commit to any guess work.

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post #11 of 35
My SWAG for the pre-orders and launch weekend is 3 Million iPads.
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post #12 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChristophB View Post

"At least 1,000,000"? Pre-orders arriving on launch day are considered launch day sales with launch day as the 16th, no? Add in-store sales and the 1,000,000 seems pretty low to me.

But I'm just another arm-chair analyst.

Your posts always sound reasonable and well thought-out to me so if you're an arm-chair analysts then most here are beanbag chair analysts.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #13 of 35
Tech Company sell a MILLION of it's products in one day?

I don't know... just asking
post #14 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChristophB View Post

"At least 1,000,000"? Pre-orders arriving on launch day are considered launch day sales with launch day as the 16th, no? Add in-store sales and the 1,000,000 seems pretty low to me.

But I'm just another arm-chair analyst.

Regardless of where you are sitting , it will all be based on how many they could make and ship. If they are constrained on the retina displays, it will limit the launch sales. If they've stacked up 4M in the warehouses/factories, then we're golden for a big stretch number.
post #15 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Your posts always sound reasonable and well thought-out to me so if you're an arm-chair analysts then most here are beanbag chair analysts.

Like your latest sig... anything to do with the rear-facing camera?
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post #16 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by iccguy View Post

One ipad for every man, women, and child!!!

Oooooh !! That would be 7 billion units. More like 0.0114 for every man, woman and child.

post #17 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Like your latest sig... anything to do with the rear-facing camera?

I was thinking you said that but it was a tweet from Funny or Die.

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #18 of 35
With such a mediocre upgrade, I'd be surprised if Apple sells more than 50k. The Retina display is overkill. Bluetooth 4.0 stinks. The better cameras aren't necessary. LTE is a joke. The A5X can't hold a candle to the Tegra 8. I need 24 hrs of battery life. iCloud was a complete failure - Who needs access to their content on the go? The new iPhoto app looks like Microsoft's Paint. Quad core graphics? Child, pleaseeee.

lol, the 16th can't get here fast enough.
post #19 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I was thinking you said that but it was a tweet from Funny or Die.




Maybe Tallest could submit this as a smiley -- a poopy, actually...

It would come in handy to denote the AI forum trollers that crept in, crapped and crept out
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post #20 of 35
I think that Apple built for a huge launch but are still surprised by the demand. So, if they planned for a blowout of 3 M, then they have sold at least 2 M already (assuming 2M for pre-orders and 1M for in-store).

It is possible that they had as many as 4M ready for launch weekend. That would be astounding.
post #21 of 35
Go iPad!
post #22 of 35
Hmmm......

I wonder how you simulate an iPad retina display using Xcode and the iPad Simulator...

Apple doesn't make a desktop display that can handle 1536 lines of vertical resolution.
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"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
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post #23 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Maybe Tallest could submit this as a smiley -- a poopy, actually...

It would come in handy to denote the AI forum trollers that crept in, crapped and crept out

Well, when you take into account all the various types of trolls that have crept in, crapped, caused controversy, been caught, come into conflict, tried to curry favor, cower, concede, crinkle up, creep out, and then creep back in with a new username under cover of Poeism and STILL get caught…

… I forget where I was going with that. Oh, I think we're doin' just fine in the 'catch, tag, and release' department.
post #24 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

Hmmm......

I wonder how you simulate an iPad retina display using Xcode and the iPad Simulator...

Apple doesn't make a desktop display that can handle 1536 lines of vertical resolution.

They used to. 30-inch screen are easy to find, but not from Apple anymore.
It is scary that you can not fully display an iPad screen in landscape on a 27-inch monitor let alone in portrait orientation.
post #25 of 35
At the end of 2010, I estimated that all iPad sales for 2011 would be above 60 million units... blew it!

I suspect we are at over 10 million iPads so far this year and will hit 13 million for CQ1 2012.

So, if Apple can sell 8 million iPads (all kinds) per month for the next 6 months (CQ2 & CQ3)... Then sell 18 million for CQ4...

It is possible that Apple can sell 13 + (8 x 6) + 18 == 79 million iPads for CY 2012.

Hell, let's just call it 80 million iPads for CY 2012!
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"The perfect [birth]day -- A little playtime, a good poop, and a long nap." - Tomato Greeting Cards -
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post #26 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Capnbob View Post

Regardless of where you are sitting , it will all be based on how many they could make and ship. If they are constrained on the retina displays, it will limit the launch sales. If they've stacked up 4M in the warehouses/factories, then we're golden for a big stretch number.

4M is a big number. Certainly you're correct that component supply would be the major constraint. Assembly has to be a lot easier and thereby faster on these than the iPhones so cranking them off the line would be less of an issue. You made me think on how many I could imagine myself fully assembling in one, twelve hour day. 40? x how many Foxconnites, 8K? x (what?) 60 days of assembly? Do they work around the clock with 2 shifts (3 including weekend)? All panels wouldn't have to be there day 1 of assembly, just enough to do that day quota.

So from my armchair, 1.9M on launch day.
post #27 of 35
I just hope they have enough at the store, I am not an outdoor kind of person nor an early bird. So I am coming at 9 am
post #28 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Postulant View Post

With such a mediocre upgrade, I'd be surprised if Apple sells more than 50k. The Retina display is overkill. Bluetooth 4.0 stinks. The better cameras aren't necessary. LTE is a joke. The A5X can't hold a candle to the Tegra 8. I need 24 hrs of battery life. iCloud was a complete failure - Who needs access to their content on the go? The new iPhoto app looks like Microsoft's Paint. Quad core graphics? Child, pleaseeee.

lol, the 16th can't get here fast enough.


ahhhh, sarcasm ...
post #29 of 35
I predict 100 million iPads in 2012. Between the new model and that continuation of the iPad 2 at a lower price point, Apple has expanded its potential consumer base. I think they'll sell at least 50 million iPad 2s again just by themselves, so the new iPad is on top of that.
post #30 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by focher View Post

I predict 100 million iPads in 2012. Between the new model and that continuation of the iPad 2 at a lower price point, Apple has expanded its potential consumer base. I think they'll sell at least 50 million iPad 2s again just by themselves, so the new iPad is on top of that.

Holy mother of someone else's God that's a lot of iPads. But I'm gonna go out on an apple tree limb and agree with you. Given Apple's market growth trends and iPad 2 sales (as you mention) - 100 million is in the realm of probability.
post #31 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by tnt View Post

I just hope they have enough at the store, I am not an outdoor kind of person nor an early bird. So I am coming at 9 am

Where are you planning to go at 9am? An Apple Store? I don't think you've got a chance. Maybe some backwoods Walmart, Best Buy or Radio Shack if they're getting any would still have some without a line at 9am but even that is unlikely. Pay a teenager $50 to stand in line from 6am till 9am and take their place. That would up your odds significantly.
post #32 of 35
I just received my Smart Cover from UPS. The driver told me that he has delivered 30 of these, today. And that's just one driver. For one route. In one city. In one day.

These new iPad sales are going to be OUTRAGEOUS!!

Glad mine's coming Friday
post #33 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by tyler82 View Post

I just received my Smart Cover from UPS. The driver told me that he has delivered 30 of these, today. And that's just one driver. For one route. In one city. In one day.

These new iPad sales are going to be OUTRAGEOUS!!

Glad mine's coming Friday

You're just a fanboy who ordered 30 thenewipads to pad (hehe) the stats. No one wants these.
post #34 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Your posts always sound reasonable and well thought-out to me so if you're an arm-chair analysts then most here are beanbag chair analysts.

Let's just say I'm in the network biz and the biz is good.
post #35 of 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Well, when you take into account all the various types of trolls that have crept in, crapped, caused controversy, been caught, come into conflict, tried to curry favor, cower, concede, crinkle up, creep out, and then creep back in with a new username under cover of Poeism and STILL get caught

I forget where I was going with that. Oh, I think we're doin' just fine in the 'catch, tag, and release' department.

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