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Microsoft eyes October Windows 8 launch amid growing competition

post #1 of 97
Thread Starter 
As Microsoft scrambles to finish its next generation Windows 8 tablet and desktop operating system, some analysts say that the Redmond, Wash., company must launch by October to avoid being overrun by mounting competition from Apple and Google's Android.

Citing sources with inside knowledge of Microsoft's 2012 roadmap, Bloomberg reports that the company is looking to complete Windows 8 by summer and plans to launch the OS on a variety of tablets and PCs before the holiday season in October.

In respect to tablet sales, Gartner Inc. analyst Michael Gartenberg notes that a pre-holiday shipment is necessary for Microsoft to fend off the fierce competition presented by Apple's iOS and Android.

“If they miss the September-October time frame, they’re going to be stuck without being able to ship anything in 2012,” Gartenberg said. “The last thing Microsoft wants to have is a situation where there are no compelling Windows tablets at a time when the new iPad looks like it’s going to be a good seller for the holidays.”


Windows 8 Consumer Preview. | Source: Microsoft


Gartner estimates that over 103 million tablets will be sold in 2012, with the number more than tripling to 326.3 million by 2015. Apple will take a majority of those sales, however growing competition from devices running Google's Android and, to a lesser extent, Microsoft will eat into the iPad's market share.

Since its introduction in 2010, the iPad has enjoyed the lion's share of tablet sales and moved over 15 million units in the last quarter of 2011 alone. At the end of January, the iPad accounted for 58 percent of the market while Android held a 39 percent share. Microsoft came in a distant third with 1.5 percent.

Demand for Apple's tablet has not waned, as the recently-released third-generation iPad sold a record-breaking 3 million units over its launch weekend.

Gartner expects that a flood of Android and Windows devices will dilute the iPad's market share to 46 percent in 2015, however that number is contingent on Microsoft meeting a 2012 Windows 8 launch date.

In addition to over 40 traditional Intel-based machines, Microsoft is looking to rollout devices based on the ARM platform when Windows 8 is eventually released. The number of devices running on ARM chips at launch will be limited to fewer than five, three of which are reported to be tablets.

Although no official date has been set for the Windows 8 rollout, insiders say that Microsoft will be holding a special event for industry partners in April to announce release timing and marketing.

[ View article on AppleInsider ]
post #2 of 97
My take is after running the beta, pros will prefer 7 on PCs and consumers will prefer iPads for tablets. Then I am biased.
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post #3 of 97
Micro$oft must think that someone cares. A newer buggy whip will not have much of a market, now that people are driving automobiles.
post #4 of 97
I don't think the Metro interface is bad on a tablet. I think it's a HORRIBLE idea for a desktop.
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post #5 of 97
Quote:
The number of devices running on ARM chips at launch will be limited to fewer than five, three of which are reported to be tablets.

What is the other device?

When will Intel Windows 8 Tablets be available?

Will Windows 8 ARM tablet success be dependent on Office on ARM?

Will there be a reasonable library of apps available... When?

Will consumers have any interest in these devices?

Will enterprise have any interest in these devices?

When do most enterprise departments go through their budget/approval cycle?


If MS releases Windows 8 ARM tablets in October... will it matter?
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post #6 of 97
Windows 8 on ARM should have every bit of the success that those blockbuster Kin phones had.

Sounds like Redmond is about as committed to them as they were to the Kins too.
post #7 of 97
Hey, didn't Ballmer say that Windows 8 might be the last version of Windows if people don't take to it?

And then Microsoft goes and actually creates their own interface for the first time ever (something of which I GREATLY approve), but it's to their detriment as people hate it

I think Microsoft might actually want to stop making consumer OS'

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post #8 of 97
I don't know if rushing Win8 to market will do MS any good.

I've been playing with both the DP and CP versions recently, and it feels very unfinished (OK, it's a preview) and awfully clunky. If things don't change much between now and the sales date, it'll be Vista v.2. The Metro/desktop situation is confusing at first - a lot of people are going to feel unhappy and lost.

I helped my dad through the transition from XP to 7 this week, remembering the video of Chris Pirillo's dad and thinking "if he's lost now, he'll never figure out 8."
post #9 of 97
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Hey, didn't Ballmer say that Windows 8 might be the last version of Windows if people don't take to it?

And then Microsoft goes and actually creates their own interface for the first time ever (something of which I GREATLY approve), but it's to their detriment as people hate it

I think Microsoft might actually want to stop making consumer OS'

MS just announced a new OS:

Windows 9... Anywhere?
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post #10 of 97
My prophecy for the whole Windows 8 effort:

- Microsoft will announce a roadmap to release, Their clown CEO will call it the greatest evolution of the OS since Windows NT (Neanderthal Technology)
- Poor Indians will scramble to finish it on time, and they will fail miserable, but Windows 8 will be released anyway, despite warnings from their QA departments not to do so
- Tens of thousands of bugs reclassified as "non critical" will make it into the first release, with two or three massive updates in the next 6 month following the release
- Despite the horrible bugs in the first release, Many windows developers and users will feel Microsoft finally did something "right" with Windows 8... (It's like getting a car with the nylon covers still on the seats, and that new car smell)
- New versions of the Developer Tools will be released, infuriating many Microsoft Developers (Many of the things they learned, they now have to learn to forget, and learn new things that will again change in 6 month)
- 6 month later, Both consumers and developers will all wake up from their illusion to discover they have all been fed the same old crap (They discover that there indeed was a new car smell, and there was nylon covers on the seats, but the car is actually an old 1977 Chevy Nova)
- Horrible security exploits will be discovered that compromise consumer machines and allow for theft of identity and resources (some will be made public, most won't), as well as used for bot nets and spam nets.
post #11 of 97
Windows 8 works extremely well on a desktop. I've only been using the consumer preview for 3 weeks, but have already made it my primary OS and can't imagine going back to Windows 7 or OS X.
post #12 of 97
So with windows what is the update progression? XP - Vista - 7 then 8? Or do you just see which one works on the system you have?

And what even happened to windows 4, 5 & 6 I never even heard of them.
post #13 of 97
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

I think Microsoft might actually want to stop making consumer OS'…

They'll always have Office...and Paris.
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post #14 of 97
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobwoods View Post

I don't know if rushing Win8 to market will do MS any good.

I've been playing with both the DP and CP versions recently, and it feels very unfinished (OK, it's a preview) and awfully clunky. If things don't change much between now and the sales date, it'll be Vista v.2. The Metro/desktop situation is confusing at first - a lot of people are going to feel unhappy and lost.

I helped my dad through the transition from XP to 7 this week, remembering the video of Chris Pirillo's dad and thinking "if he's lost now, he'll never figure out 8."

Isn't Windows 8 Desktop -- just Windows 7 with an [impervious] Metro Wall around it?
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post #15 of 97
The Metro UI is pretty nice, at least it's original compared to the route Android took. I like that you can switch to the classic Windows view too if for some reason you hate Metro. To be honest I'm a bit intrigued by these Windows 8 Intel tablets because I have specific programs that can ONLY run on Windows. Legacy support really appeals to me, I can be much more productive on one of these.

Some people just hate Microsoft, I think people are underestimating how well these will do. Apple will be approaching 100 million iPads sold by the time these are released but I really predict Windows tablets will be taking the number 2 spot eventually.
post #16 of 97
...as in Windows L8 (late)?
post #17 of 97
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

I don't think the Metro interface is bad on a tablet. I think it's a HORRIBLE idea for a desktop.

This. Ive been playing around with windows 8 on an old desktop and while there are some positives, I mainly stick to the old school desktop when trying to do anything substantial. Unfortunately I don't have a touchscreen to try it out on, but I think it is a mistake to force a touchscreen interface on a desktop device. I think they would be better served to allow apps to have one install that works as both a desktop app and then maybe a simplified metro app, but it seems like they are keeping it segregated. You really see the issue in IE in metro. If you come across a website with a plug in in IE, you can click a link to open it in IE(yes, in IE you click a link to open IE), but it s the desktop version. Maybe they can get it sorted by October, but its hardly a seamless UI.
post #18 of 97
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

As Microsoft scrambles to finish its next generation Windows 8 tablet and desktop operating system, some analysts say that the Redmond, Wash., company must launch by October to avoid being overrun by mounting competition from Apple and Google's Android.

Can anybody tell me, how they can be overrun by android or iOS. As far as I know M$ on tablets doesn't really exist yet. This is one kind of a silly report.
post #19 of 97
If win8 tablets bomb iPads will belie iPods 80-90% of market share IMHO...
post #20 of 97
Quote:
Originally Posted by Skaag View Post

My prophecy for the whole Windows 8 effort:

- Microsoft will announce a roadmap to release, Their clown CEO will call it the greatest evolution of the OS since Windows NT (Neanderthal Technology)
- Poor Indians will scramble to finish it on time, and they will fail miserable, but Windows 8 will be released anyway, despite warnings from their QA departments not to do so
- Tens of thousands of bugs reclassified as "non critical" will make it into the first release, with two or three massive updates in the next 6 month following the release
- Despite the horrible bugs in the first release, Many windows developers and users will feel Microsoft finally did something "right" with Windows 8... (It's like getting a car with the nylon covers still on the seats, and that new car smell)
- New versions of the Developer Tools will be released, infuriating many Microsoft Developers (Many of the things they learned, they now have to learn to forget, and learn new things that will again change in 6 month)
- 6 month later, Both consumers and developers will all wake up from their illusion to discover they have all been fed the same old crap (They discover that there indeed was a new car smell, and there was nylon covers on the seats, but the car is actually an old 1977 Chevy Nova)
- Horrible security exploits will be discovered that compromise consumer machines and allow for theft of identity and resources (some will be made public, most won't), as well as used for bot nets and spam nets.

you're disparaging the 77 Chevy Nova.
post #21 of 97
Quote:
Originally Posted by MusicComposer View Post

The Metro UI is pretty nice, at least it's original compared to the route Android took. I like that you can switch to the classic Windows view too if for some reason you hate Metro. To be honest I'm a bit intrigued by these Windows 8 Intel tablets because I have specific programs that can ONLY run on Windows. Legacy support really appeals to me, I can be much more productive on one of these.

Some people just hate Microsoft, I think people are underestimating how well these will do. Apple will be approaching 100 million iPads sold by the time these are released but I really predict Windows tablets will be taking the number 2 spot eventually.

When do you think Windows 8 Intel tablets will be generally available and:

1) have Acceptable power to run legacy apps

2) have An acceptable touch interface for legacy apps

3) have Acceptable battery life?

4) provide a viable cost/function alternative to a Windows 8 Laptop


From what I understand, there will be no viable Windows 8 Intel tablets before mid 2013 -- if ever.

And, no legacy desktop apps will run on Windows 8 ARM tablets.


I suspect that the iPad will hit 100 million users sometime before Dec 31, 2012.
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post #22 of 97
Quote:
Originally Posted by Knocks View Post

Windows 8 works extremely well on a desktop. I've only been using the consumer preview for 3 weeks, but have already made it my primary OS and can't imagine going back to Windows 7 or OS X.

Blessed be whoever believeth.
post #23 of 97
I'll reserve judgement until I get one in my hands. I personally hope Microsoft gets it right. I'm liking the tablet space and I'm eager to see how it evolves.

Despite being the biggest fanboy on the planet, I believe innovation is at its best when everyone is bringing ideas to the table(Apple, Microsoft, HP, RIM, ANdroid etc.).
post #24 of 97
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post

When do you think Windows 8 Intel tablets will be generally available and:

1) have Acceptable power to run legacy apps

2) have An acceptable touch interface for legacy apps

3) have Acceptable battery life?

4) provide a viable cost/function alternative to a Windows 8 Laptop

From what I understand, there will be no viable Intel tablets before mid 2013 -- if ever.

I suspect that the iPad will hit 100 million users before Dec 31, 2012,

1)Intel tablets will use ULV i3 and i5's or possibly an Atom, so they will run legacy apps fine. ARM will never run them. Downside is they may require active cooling on the intel solution

2)There are some OS level changes to improve touch recognition(a pointer shows up above your finger for fine detail in old apps), but it will never be ideal

3)Intel will not have ARM level battery life anytime soon, but 4-6 hours on intel might happen

4) probably never, as they will probably try to push them at a premium over notebooks

Intel is getting very efficient very fast, but they still trail behind ARM.
post #25 of 97
Quote:
Originally Posted by Knocks View Post

Windows 8 works extremely well on a desktop. I've only been using the consumer preview for 3 weeks, but have already made it my primary OS and can't imagine going back to Windows 7 or OS X.

Come on, show a bit of enthusiasm. Honestly, trolling ain't what it used to be is it?
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post #26 of 97
Quote:
Originally Posted by Skaag View Post

My prophecy for the whole Windows 8 effort:

- Microsoft will announce a roadmap to release, Their clown CEO will call it the greatest evolution of the OS since Windows NT (Neanderthal Technology)
- Poor Indians will scramble to finish it on time, and they will fail miserable, but Windows 8 will be released anyway, despite warnings from their QA departments not to do so
- Tens of thousands of bugs reclassified as "non critical" will make it into the first release, with two or three massive updates in the next 6 month following the release
- Despite the horrible bugs in the first release, Many windows developers and users will feel Microsoft finally did something "right" with Windows 8... (It's like getting a car with the nylon covers still on the seats, and that new car smell)
- New versions of the Developer Tools will be released, infuriating many Microsoft Developers (Many of the things they learned, they now have to learn to forget, and learn new things that will again change in 6 month)
- 6 month later, Both consumers and developers will all wake up from their illusion to discover they have all been fed the same old crap (They discover that there indeed was a new car smell, and there was nylon covers on the seats, but the car is actually an old 1977 Chevy Nova)
- Horrible security exploits will be discovered that compromise consumer machines and allow for theft of identity and resources (some will be made public, most won't), as well as used for bot nets and spam nets.



Despit everithing you said, I think you give them to much credit.
post #27 of 97
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

My take is after running the beta, pros will prefer 7 on PCs and consumers will prefer iPads for tablets. Then I am biased.

I agree. Windows 8 will be the new Vista
post #28 of 97
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rabbit_Coach View Post

Blessed be whoever believeth.

I personally think the live tile thingy sucks.... Other than that, to me, it's no different than windows 7.
post #29 of 97
Left Windows years ago. Ain't going back. Sorry, Balmerino.
post #30 of 97
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

I don't think the Metro interface is bad on a tablet. I think it's a HORRIBLE idea for a desktop.

Indeed. But this is why their convoluted strategy might fail.

The ARM tablets won't have any of the enterprise level security or features and will thus be eschewed by business. The intel tablets will have battery and sluggishness issues as well as noisy fans and overheating problems.

Almost everyone using a desktop or even a laptop will simply turn Metro off and be left with Windows 7, the only difference being that they will have paid for it as "Windows 8." Consumers who go down this route might feel cheated that they had to pay anything at all.

There will be keeners even among the regular consumers that will buy an ARM Windows 8 tablet, but unless the experience is just f*cking stellar (and we should expect that it won't be even close to that), they will be disappointed.

All the "real" users of Windows, (corporations), will probably remove Metro even though Microsoft will claim those same machines as "Windows 8" machines and say that the whole effort was a roaring success.

Overall, I predict Windows 8 will be a huge disaster but it will be reported as almost the exact opposite by the tech press and by Microsoft. Their market share will continue to decline, but so slowly no one will notice much.
post #31 of 97
I'm also sceptical that the Metro paradigm will work well on the desktop. A lot of people will just use the traditional desktop 100% of the time.

Having said that, there is some absolutely ridiculous braindead fanboyism in here. Comments like 'Microsoft should stop making consumer OSes' show a breathtaking naivety. Why would they stop? Surely you've noticed that 90% of the world uses Windows and most have little desire not to? The majority views are very different outside of the Apple bubble. Come on. Stuff like this is why people sometimes sneer at Apple users. I love my iPhone and MBP, but I don't wanna be tarred with your brush.
post #32 of 97
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

“The last thing Microsoft wants to have is a situation where there are no compelling Windows tablets at a time when the new iPad looks like it’s going to be a good seller for the holidays.”

The last thing Microsoft should do is release a tablet OS before its ready, like RIM did with the PlayBook. And they better have Office ready for it on day one.

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post #33 of 97
W8 is going to be a major flop - until MS backs off and offers a version without Metro that is really just a W7 update.

because running touch-oriented Metro on a PC/laptop is jamming a square peg in a round hole, and running mouse-oriented Windows on a tablet is jamming a round peg in a square hole. some techies and power users will love it, no doubt. but regular consumers are going to find it simply too confusing and too much trouble to deal with. what they really want are simple UI's and integrated cloud services that "Just Work" (as Mountain Lion is intended to do).

in addition, there won't be much popular Windows third party software ready for it that is also well designed for Metro's touch UI. and businesses/IT will totally avoid it - the last thing they want is to go through another big change for staff training after finallly updating to W7 from XP, having totally avoided Vista in between.

one big question is whether MS will allow OEM's to keep selling new PC's with W7 instead - and for how long. another is whether they will bring out an iOS version of their flagship Office too, or hold it back as a Metro tablet exclusive. is Ballmer going to double-down on W8?

by mid-2013, MS will be forced by market resistence to bring out a "light" version of W8 that drops nearly all the Metro stuff. they will need this for the enterprise version from day 1 anyway, but they always price those versions the highest. so they'll strip it own somehow.

but by the time W8/Metro comes out late this Fall, Mountain Lion/iOS 6 will have already eaten MS' lunch anyway.
post #34 of 97
Quote:
Originally Posted by Knocks View Post

Windows 8 works extremely well on a desktop. I've only been using the consumer preview for 3 weeks, but have already made it my primary OS and can't imagine going back to Windows 7 or OS X.

The very fact that you made a consumer preview (basically an alpha) of a new OS your "primary OS" after a couple of weeks of use calls into question your techie credentials. It also proves that even if you know what you are doing, you are no where even close to the "average consumer" or even the average user of Microsoft products.

In other words, your strange experience tells us nothing, and predicts nothing.
post #35 of 97
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Gartner expects that a flood of Android and Windows devices will dilute the iPad's market share to 46 percent in 2015, however that number is contingent on Microsoft meeting a 2012 Windows 8 launch date.

And if the Windows and Android devices are any good. They haven't competed yet. So time will tell but it will be an uphill battle in any case.
post #36 of 97
Quote:
Originally Posted by Postulant View Post

I personally think the live tile thingy sucks.... Other than that, to me, it's no different than windows 7.

The only "regular" (non-techie) person I have seen use Windows Metro on a phone was completely baffled. Could. Not. Make. It. Work.

(at all).

From the videos I've seen of Windows Metro running on a tablet, it looks good, but seriously complicated. It has the tile desktop which is hard enough to manipulate, but the whole OS is built around a series of basically undiscoverable gestures on the bezel.

Consumers already have troubles with iOS and most find Android even harder. As a techie myself I can appreciate some of the sophistication of Metro, but it's not really consumer friendly IMO. Even if their strategy works and MS corners the market for techies who use tablets, the portion of the market that's too dumb to figure all that sh*t out and prefers iOS is probably a hundred times larger.
post #37 of 97
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody View Post

In other words, your strange experience tells us nothing, and predicts nothing.

Big words from someone who just made a whole post full of unfounded conjecture.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody View Post

Almost everyone using a desktop or even a laptop will simply turn Metro off and be left with Windows 7

All the "real" users of Windows, (corporations), will probably remove Metro even though Microsoft will claim those same machines as "Windows 8" machines and say that the whole effort was a roaring success.
post #38 of 97
Quote:
Originally Posted by Baka-Dubbs View Post

1)Intel tablets will use ULV i3 and i5's or possibly an Atom, so they will run legacy apps fine. ARM will never run them. Downside is they may require active cooling on the intel solution

2)There are some OS level changes to improve touch recognition(a pointer shows up above your finger for fine detail in old apps), but it will never be ideal

3)Intel will not have ARM level battery life anytime soon, but 4-6 hours on intel might happen

4) probably never, as they will probably try to push them at a premium over notebooks

Intel is getting very efficient very fast, but they still trail behind ARM.

If what you say is true, then it appears that the Windows 8 Intel tablets will be a significant improvement in performance, a middling improvement in UX -- at an equal or higher price over prior Windows tablets...

I have no way to judge whether this will be acceptable to enough users to be competitive.


Though, it seems to me that the secret of a post-pc world is to find an easier, better, cheaper way to do things... not drag forward all the past legacy sins of bloat, security holes, inconsistent UI...


It is interesting to me that companies like Adobe, Avid, Autodesk and the like are not trying to force the legacy foot into the tablet shoe.

Rather, they are rethinking their legacy apps and modularizing them to fit within the tablet environment, user needs and UX.

Hopefully, MS is doing that with Office.


I guess, what I am saying is that a legacy app.. is a legacy app on the Mac or PC -- you could serve it up on a tablet and call it "chipped beef on toast" -- but it is really the same old "SOS".
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post #39 of 97
Quote:
Originally Posted by Euphonious View Post

Big words from someone who just made a whole post full of unfounded conjecture.

my post was clearly just a prediction and my opinion positioned between several other posts doing the same thing.

IMO your's kind of implied that you were somehow pontificating on the absolute goodness of Metro and presenting same as fact.
post #40 of 97
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody View Post

Indeed. But this is why their convoluted strategy might fail.

The ARM tablets won't have any of the enterprise level security or features and will thus be eschewed by business. The intel tablets will have battery and sluggishness issues as well as noisy fans and overheating problems.

Almost everyone using a desktop or even a laptop will simply turn Metro off and be left with Windows 7, the only difference being that they will have paid for it as "Windows 8." Consumers who go down this route might feel cheated that they had to pay anything at all.

There will be keeners even among the regular consumers that will buy an ARM Windows 8 tablet, but unless the experience is just f*cking stellar (and we should expect that it won't be even close to that), they will be disappointed.

All the "real" users of Windows, (corporations), will probably remove Metro even though Microsoft will claim those same machines as "Windows 8" machines and say that the whole effort was a roaring success.

Overall, I predict Windows 8 will be a huge disaster but it will be reported as almost the exact opposite by the tech press and by Microsoft. Their market share will continue to decline, but so slowly no one will notice much.

I think you are right!

But, from what I understand MS was insisting that Metro won't be able to be "turned off".

I don't know if this is changed -- but it seems a really dumb decision!
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