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IDC predicts Apple's iOS to grow to 17% of all smart connected devices in 2016

post #1 of 16
Thread Starter 
A new analysis combining PCs, tablets and smartphones into one category of "smart connected devices" projects iOS devices will grow from a 14.6 percent share of the market in 2011 to 17.3 percent in 2016.

Market research firm IDC released a new study estimating a total of 916 million units and $489 billion dollars in revenue for all smart connected devices last year. The research combined estimates from the groups PC, mobile phone and media tablet trackers.

The 2012 forecast for unit shipments of the category is 1.1 billion units worldwide. IDC predicts shipments will double from their 2011 numbers to almost 2 billion units by 2016. Compound annual growth rate (CAGR)

"Whether it's consumers looking for a phone that can tap into several robust 'app' ecosystems, businesses looking at deploying tablet devices into their environments, or educational institutions working to update their school's computer labs, smart, connected, compute-capable devices are playing an increasingly important role in nearly every individual's life," said Bob O'Donnell, IDC vice president.

According to the analysis, iOS devices will comprise 17.3 percent of the market in 2016, up from 14.6 percent last year. Meanwhile, x86-based Windows PCs are expected to decline sharply from 35.9 percent share in 2011 to 25.1 percent in 2016.




Chart: Worldwide Smart Connected Device Shipments, 2010-2016 (Unit Millions)Description: This data comes from IDC's WW Quarterly PC Tracker, WW Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, and WW Quarterly Media Tablet and eReader Tracker.Tags: Tracker, mobile phones, tablets, forecast, PCs, devices, consumer, IDC ...Author: IDCcharts powered by iCharts



Devices running Google's Android mobile OS on ARM CPUs are predicted "grow modestly" from 29.4 percent to 31.1 percent in 2016. IDC expects unsustainably thin profit margins on low-end Android devices and developer preference for the more profitable iOS app ecosystem to eventually slow the platform's growth.

"Android's growth is tied directly to the propagation of lower-priced devices," said Tom Mainelli, IDC's research director for mobile connected devices. "So, while we expect dozens of hardware vendors to own some share in the Android market, many will find profitability difficult to sustain. Similarly, we expect a large percentage of application developers to continue to focus their efforts on iOS, despite the platform's smaller overall market share, because iOS end users have proven more willing to pay for high-quality apps."

Over the next few years, consumers are expected to continue a trend toward owning multiple devices. ""We are in the multi-device age," O'Donnell said.

China and other Asia Pacific countries are projected to lead smartphone growth. A separate study by Flurry Analytics earlier this month found that China now leads the world in iOS and Android device activations.

[ View article on AppleInsider ]
post #2 of 16
The graph shows the PC market as growing, whereas for the last several years it has been slowly shrinking.
"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge
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post #3 of 16
It looks like Android has cracked the secret of Nokia's success as the seller of the most mobile phones in the world.
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post #4 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

It looks like Android has cracked the secret of Nokia's success as the seller of the most mobile phones in the world.

Well... "Android" isn't a company.... but you can credit Google for creating an OS for lots of other companies to use.

And this is interesting: "Android's growth is tied directly to the propagation of lower-priced devices... IDC expects unsustainably thin profit margins on low-end Android devices and developer preference for the more profitable iOS app ecosystem to eventually slow the platform's growth."

So basically... these companies will be shoveling out tons of cheap Android devices... but they might not be profitable or even sustainable...

Seems like "market share" isn't all it's cracked up to be!
post #5 of 16
By IDC's definition, Apple is currently selling just under 60 million devices a quarter

In 2016, 17% of 2 billion is 340 million for the year. Or, 85 million a quarter

In other words, IDC is projecting Apple units will only grow 40% over the next five years. Only 7.5% per year. Vs current 100% growth rates

I understand 100% will not last. But, IDC is woefully under estimating Apple and it's growth

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post #6 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post

Well... "Android" isn't a company.... but you can credit Google for creating an OS for lots of other companies to use.

And this is interesting: "Android's growth is tied directly to the propagation of lower-priced devices... IDC expects unsustainably thin profit margins on low-end Android devices and developer preference for the more profitable iOS app ecosystem to eventually slow the platform's growth."

So basically... these companies will be shoveling out tons of cheap Android devices... but they might not be profitable or even sustainable...

Seems like "market share" isn't all it's cracked up to be!

Which is precisely what Nokia found out as they dawdle into irrelevance with nothing to look forward to apart from income from patent trolling.

Much like Google's vision for Motorola.
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post #7 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

Which is precisely what Nokia found out as they dawdle into irrelevance with nothing to look forward to apart from income from patent trolling.

Much like Google's vision for Motorola.

Nokia was a hot hardware seller until their products were no longer desirable...

But Google gets a fraction of a penny every time someone looks at their Android phone... isn't that a good plan?
post #8 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post

The graph shows the PC market as growing, whereas for the last several years it has been slowly shrinking.

That is incorrect AFAIK.

Got any cites to show that the PC market has been shrinking for the last several years?

AFAIK, it is growing at about a 4% annual rate.
post #9 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post

Nokia was a hot hardware seller until their products were no longer desirable...

But Google gets a fraction of a penny every time someone looks at their Android phone... isn't that a good plan?

Actually, Moto and Nokia had all the contracts with the Telcos and willingly allowed the Telco to screw with the simple embedded os to their hearts delight.

Struggling Cingular takes a leap of faith with Apple and the rest of the industry [minus RIM] still attempts to apply that same approach with Android leaving a lot of crap on their phones, but this time if the consumer wants to hack their phone they can modify it themselves.

Apple brings and end-to-end premium quality solution for consumers and a world class API set for devs resulting in billions to devs, billions to telcos and tens of billions to Apple.

Win, Win, and a Win all around for Apple's ecosystem.
post #10 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post

Nokia was a hot hardware seller until their products were no longer desirable...

But Google gets a fraction of a penny every time someone looks at their Android phone... isn't that a good plan?

A good plan it would have been except that the lion's share of Google's mobile advertising revenue is derived from Apple products; as indicated by a Google director. As Apple has declared "thermonuclear war" on Google it is likely we will see the gradual reduction in importance of Google products within Apple products and services. For example, Apple released Siri with iPhone 4S which presumably has reduced some need for Google Search.

As we know, Google doesn't charge fees for licensing Android. We can assume that revenue from Android apps is fairly insignificant as Google executives have indicated displeasure with app sales.

On October 13, 2011 Larry Page announced that Google mobile revenue is expected to reach USD $2.5 b in 2012. Estimates suggest that Google mobile revenue reached USD $1 b in 2011.

Apple iPhone generated USD $24.42 b revenue in 1Q2012. Apple indicated recently that over USD $4 b has been paid to iOS developers to date.

As we can see, Apple has paid developers more money from iOS than Google (let alone Android developers) have profited thus far. Since Google spent USD $12.5 b for Motorola Mobility this does not appear to be a sustainable trend.
post #11 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post


Apple brings and end-to-end premium quality solution for consumers and a world class API set for devs resulting in billions to devs, billions to telcos and tens of billions to Apple.

Win, Win, and a Win all around for Apple's ecosystem.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MacBook Pro View Post

A good plan it would have been except that the lion's share of Google's mobile advertising revenue is derived from Apple products; as indicated by a Google director. As Apple has declared "thermonuclear war" on Google it is likely we will see the gradual reduction in importance of Google products within Apple products and services. For example, Apple released Siri with iPhone 4S which presumably has reduced some need for Google Search.

As we know, Google doesn't charge fees for licensing Android. We can assume that revenue from Android apps is fairly insignificant as Google executives have indicated displeasure with app sales.

On October 13, 2011 Larry Page announced that Google mobile revenue is expected to reach USD $2.5 b in 2012. Estimates suggest that Google mobile revenue reached USD $1 b in 2011.

Apple iPhone generated USD $24.42 b revenue in 1Q2012. Apple indicated recently that over USD $4 b has been paid to iOS developers to date.

As we can see, Apple has paid developers more money from iOS than Google (let alone Android developers) have profited thus far. Since Google spent USD $12.5 b for Motorola Mobility this does not appear to be a sustainable trend.

Yep!

By comparison... Android's ecosystem and revenue stream looks like a mess.

I wonder why people think market share is king?

It doesn't look like it's gonna pay off...
post #12 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by I am a Zither Zather Zuzz View Post

That is incorrect AFAIK.

Got any cites to show that the PC market has been shrinking for the last several years?

AFAIK, it is growing at about a 4% annual rate.

Two articles from two different years found in 2 seconds with the search paramters of 'PC market shrink". Not exactly rocket surgery.

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post #13 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacBook Pro View Post

For example, Apple released Siri with iPhone 4S which presumably has reduced some need for Google Search.

And now you know why Google had to create Android. To not do so would have left Google's future in the hands of others.

Technology changes fast. Products like Siri changed the playing field. If you are not in a position to control your own destiny you will eventually end up as road kill.
post #14 of 16
Do any of us want to look up what the likes of IDC and Gartner predicted or projected 3 or 5 years ago? We all know that it'd be laughably and woefully wrong. I'm just amazed that companies actually pay IDC and Gartner for their "analysis" of this stuff.
post #15 of 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by alexkhan2000 View Post

Do any of us want to look up what the likes of IDC and Gartner predicted or projected 3 or 5 years ago? We all know that it'd be laughably and woefully wrong. I'm just amazed that companies actually pay IDC and Gartner for their "analysis" of this stuff.

Well. Not too long ago IDC predicted that by 2015 WP7 would overtake iOS in marketshare and would be the premier Android challanger at over 20% market share, while iOS would have around 15% or so...

With the storming success of the iPad and the release of "New iPhone" later this year, slowing growth does not really seem to be the future of iOS...
post #16 of 16
Tablet sales grew by over 150% last year. Yet IDC is predicting that tablet sales will grow at a rate of 30% each year for the next five years, totaling sales of less than 200 million in 2016. That is a wholly unrealistic projection.

It is more likely that tablet sales will reach 100 million this year and 200 million by the end of 2013. If that happens, then tablet sales may well exceed that of traditional PCs by 2014 or 2015.

IDC has the right idea. Where there was only one category of PCs, there are now three: phones, tablets and traditional PCs. But IDC is woefully underestimating the impact of tablets (which they still quaintly insist on calling "media tablets"). Tablets will supplement some PCs, replace some PCs, create new computing markets and create new computer users. Smart Phones will become ubiquitous, tablets will become the new PC and PCs will be relegated to the third of three. Still important. But just the third of three.
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