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Firm slaps $1001 target on Apple shares ahead of $100B integrated television opportunity

post #1 of 58
Thread Starter 
Arguing that Apple's dominance of the consumer electronics market is positioned to go unchecked for the foreseeable future, Topeka Capital Markets on Monday initiated coverage of the iPad maker with a staggering $1001 price target on the company's shares.

In an inaugural research note to clients, analyst Brain White said he believes the 'Apple story' has a long way to play out over the coming years despite the company's already dominate market position, with the next 12-18 months expected to serve as a 'particular exciting' time for the company on multiple fronts.

"Driven by an ever expanding portfolio of innovative products, a growing integrated digital grid, unmatched aesthetics and a brand that is able to touch the soul of consumers of all backgrounds, Apple fever is spreading like a wildfire around the world and we see no end in sight to this trend," he said.

In particular, White argues that Apple "remains the premiere play on the rise of the mobile Internet around the world" and stands well positioned to capitalize on the trend, especially in China where 3G subscriber rates are expected to swell to 230 million by year's end and make the country's mobile ecosystem "one of the wonders of the technology world."

In supporting his 12-month price target of $1001, the analyst also identified the recent launch of the company's 1080p-capable Apple TV (review) as "another step down the road" toward the company introducing a full-blown integrated television in the future.

"Apple's digital grid is tough to match and iCloud further strengthens this ecosystem, however, Apple is missing an important product and that is a full blown TV," he said. "We believe the pieces are in place for a launch over the next year, driving an entirely new $100 billion market opportunity, while further strengthening the company's digital grid and providing customers with a new TV experience."

Wall Street darling Apple has already seen its shares rise more than 45% from the start of the year when shares were trading at just $411. A blockbuster first fiscal quarter and the subsequent launch of the new iPad help boost shares above the $600 milestone for the first time in the company's history last month.

Though shares retreated somewhat last week as investors took profits and others weighed the risk of continued investment in the company, shares of the company regained their momentum Monday after White issued his note and are currently trading at $610.49, up approximately $11 (or 2%) from Friday's close.

[ View article on AppleInsider ]
post #2 of 58
Hell no!!!
Somebody from the government better step in and slow the sh** down.
post #3 of 58
It's like a poker game out there with these analysts; "I see your $900, and I raise you to $1001!"
post #4 of 58
almost time for the ol' Wall St adage, the faster they rise, the harder they fall.
(referring to stock price, not Apple itself)
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I'm not a pessimist. I'm an optimist, with experience.
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post #5 of 58
Past performance is no guarantee of future results but it's gone up 50% in the last quarter and the trajectory looks good. At $609 today (whoops, $610) it continues to defy many, many expectations. I'm astonished at the disparity in PE multiples, too. Amazon earns almost 150 times earnings and hasn't ever been below 25 times earnings. AAPL is a little over 17 but their positive earnings surprises are consistent and astounding.
post #6 of 58
Well, I thought the $550 prediction was far fetched, back when she was still trading at around $300. Sigh.

"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

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"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."

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post #7 of 58
$1001 is funny though. Sounds more like a Price is Right bid. I'm guessing this prediction contains a bit of showmanship.
post #8 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

Hell no!!!
Somebody from the government better step in and slow the sh** down.

In just one post, you've created two of the most powerful points (usually associated with knee-jerk or semi-trolling reactions) on this matter. Congrats.

As my rebuttal, the government should NOT step in (because what business is it of theirs?), and the stock should NOT be slowed until it reaches its proper balance on its own (which it will). We're in no danger of anything yet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ddawson100 View Post

$1001 is funny though. Sounds more like a Price is Right bid. I'm guessing this prediction contains a bit of showmanship.

"And the actual retail price of a share of Apple stock in 2015 IS… …One thousand and TWO dollars!"

*Ding ding ding ding ding…*

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #9 of 58
Only group of people worse than weathermen/women are stock analysts.

"Like I said before, share price will dip into the $400."  - 11/21/12 by Galbi

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"Like I said before, share price will dip into the $400."  - 11/21/12 by Galbi

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post #10 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by ddawson100 View Post

Past performance is no guarantee of future results but it's gone up 50% in the last quarter and the trajectory looks good. At $609 today (whoops, $610) it continues to defy many, many expectations. I'm astonished at the disparity in PE multiples, too. Amazon earns almost 150 times earnings and hasn't ever been below 25 times earnings. AAPL is a little over 17 but their positive earnings surprises are consistent and astounding.

That Price/Earnings ratio will drop several notches in a couple of weeks, although it may also climb a couple of notches in the meantime. Some independent analysts are predicting better than a 100% year over year improvement in earnings for the just completed quarter. That will boost year over year total earnings from $32.982 billion to at least $39.382 billion. At, say, $650/share (my guess for the stock price just before earnings are released), that would reduce the P/E ratio to (650/39.4=) 16.5.

As you say, that's a far cry from Amazon's sky-high P/E ratio, although that mostly due to the tiny overall margin Amazon earns (high price/low earnings equals a very high P/E ratio - and vice versa).
post #11 of 58
It all depends on whether Apple has another couple of of blockbuster new products a la the iPod, iPhone, and iPad in the offing. Whether it does, and how impactful it will be, is difficult to predict.

There is no doubt that Apple has lots up its sleeve (TV, car electronics, health, education) that will be successful in the market, but the question is whether it can achieve the scale of success required to move the needle sufficiently. For example, a product that has a net present value of $10B increases your stock price by 10% when you're a $100B company, but by only 2% when you're a $500B company. You'll need a $50B NPV product at that scale to have a similar impact.

That is tough.

If it's just the current set of (fabulously successful, and still lots of room for growth) products, I doubt that this price forecast can be justified.

I think things will go sideways (perhaps slightly up) for a while in a wait-and-see mode, until the market can sort this out.
post #12 of 58
There are quite a number of aspirational clothing brands, there are at least 5 aspirational automobile brands, likewise with home appliances, maybe 4 for cameras. But there is only one aspirational computer and mobile device brand. Only Apple can get away with charging a luxury premium for their products, all the rest are competing on price among each other.
post #13 of 58
Apple's profits are a fraction of the billions it will save schools in books and *airlines in extra fuel lugging tons of flight manuals. It's also a fraction of the value of all the new secondary support jobs it creates. Students learn much more on an iPad then from a book so maybe we can move up from dead last in education in the world. *iPads *help train our military for the digital age and Apple is starting to invest and rebuild America WITHOUT bailouts. Apple tries to improve the lives of the workers in its supply chain and most of all Apple is making people see that creativity is not dead in America. I don't know of any other company that has done and can do so much.

Don't be surprised if Apple's stock zooms to $2000 before years end.
post #14 of 58
You guys should hire an editor to check your speeling and proffreed your articles to catch misteaks.
I seriously doubt that the analyst's name is "Brain" White.
And, Apple has a dominant market position; not "dominate".
post #15 of 58
Ain't that the truth. Sister purchased some at $120. Lucky her.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

Well, I thought the $550 prediction was far fetched, back when she was still trading at around $300. Sigh.
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Originally Posted by Granmastak: Labor unions managed to kill manufacturing a long time ago with their unreasonable demands. Now the people they were trying to protect, are out of a job.
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post #16 of 58
Those who are saying 1001 is to much are nuts...I remember when I got apple ($13.00) when no one wanted it and I took a risk and now the its time for my harvest...those who say its too high are just jealous as if they owned apple they would not bad mouth the high stock price !
post #17 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

It all depends on whether Apple has another couple of of blockbuster new products a la the iPod, iPhone, and iPad in the offing. Whether it does, and how impactful it will be, is difficult to predict.

THIS.

I'm going to play devils advocate on this one... apart from the iPhone and iPad (and MAYBE the Notebook), are there REALLY any other RUNAWAY successes for Apple?

My point is - there's A LOT of expectations for Apple. And the tough thing about being the flavor of the month for consumers and Wall Street, is that unless you keep up the momentum, Apple's meteoric, almost overnight rise, can become an almost overnight free fall.

Apple going into TV is a BIG risk. A TV isn't a $200 phone or $500 iPad or even a $999 notebook pc. It's a $2000+ purchase that most people won't get in line for, get rid of in 2 years.

And given the UI/features found with AppleTV - adding AppleTV to an HDTV really isn't THAT exciting. Really, would you pay a $1000+ premium on a TV, when Apple sells a $99 accessory that allows you to do the same thing?

And if it adds Siri... so you can talk to a TV. Again, a $1000+ worthy feature?

Obviously I am making some assumptions. And again, I am playing devils advocate.
post #18 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuxoM3 View Post

THIS.

I'm going to play devils advocate on this one... apart from the iPhone and iPad (and MAYBE the Notebook), are there REALLY any other RUNAWAY successes for Apple?.

How many do they need to make you happy?

- iPod
- iPhone
- iPad
- MacBook Air
- Apple TV (to a slightly lesser extent)
- Apple Retail Stores
- Apple online store
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post #19 of 58
If it hits $1001, and my first shares were bought for $2.50 (split adjusted), that means that AAPL is a 400-bagger. What makes my day is when I go to the mall, zoo, park, and see just about everyone with a wireless electronic device, most of them by Apple.
post #20 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mightymike View Post

Apple's profits are a fraction of the billions it will save schools in books and *airlines in extra fuel lugging tons of flight manuals. It's also a fraction of the value of all the new secondary support jobs it creates. Students learn much more on an iPad then from a book so maybe we can move up from dead last in education in the world. *iPads *help train our military for the digital age and Apple is starting to invest and rebuild America WITHOUT bailouts. Apple tries to improve the lives of the workers in its supply chain and most of all Apple is making people see that creativity is not dead in America. I don't know of any other company that has done and can do so much.

Don't be surprised if Apple's stock zooms to $2000 before years end.

Uzzz no izzz gonna b rite
post #21 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

How many do they need to make you happy?

- iPod
- iPhone
- iPad
- MacBook Air
- Apple TV (to a slightly lesser extent)
- Apple Retail Stores
- Apple online store

iPod, iPad and iPhone are huge hits and account for three quarters of Apple's revenue. The MacBook Air is not in the same league and the AppleTV is still just a hobby.
post #22 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuxoM3 View Post

THIS.

I'm going to play devils advocate on this one... apart from the iPhone and iPad (and MAYBE the Notebook), are there REALLY any other RUNAWAY successes for Apple?

My point is - there's A LOT of expectations for Apple. And the tough thing about being the flavor of the month for consumers and Wall Street, is that unless you keep up the momentum, Apple's meteoric, almost overnight rise, can become an almost overnight free fall.

Apple going into TV is a BIG risk. A TV isn't a $200 phone or $500 iPad or even a $999 notebook pc. It's a $2000+ purchase that most people won't get in line for, get rid of in 2 years.

And given the UI/features found with AppleTV - adding AppleTV to an HDTV really isn't THAT exciting. Really, would you pay a $1000+ premium on a TV, when Apple sells a $99 accessory that allows you to do the same thing?

And if it adds Siri... so you can talk to a TV. Again, a $1000+ worthy feature?

Obviously I am making some assumptions. And again, I am playing devils advocate.

The iPhone is taking the majority of the mobile handset profits. The market for smartphones is still growing at a fast pace.

The iPad is a relatively new device and has few (if any real contenders) it is already disrupting the notebook market. Lots of room for growth, plus the margins might be bigger.

As for what is left of the notebook market, Apple only has a small share still, so lots of room for growth which is happening.

Yes, I agree that people don't usually throw out a TV after a few years, but that is exactly what they do with a $2000 Macbook Pro.

The way I see it, Apple is either dominating a growing market (iPhone/iPad), or is growing rapidly in established markets (macs). Lots and lots of room to grow, plus they're just getting started in China (and soon India?). However, I'm still weary on these predictions.
post #23 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by tundraboy View Post

There are quite a number of aspirational clothing brands, there are at least 5 aspirational automobile brands, likewise with home appliances, maybe 4 for cameras. But there is only one aspirational computer and mobile device brand. Only Apple can get away with charging a luxury premium for their products, all the rest are competing on price among each other.


IMO, Apple is moving away from this strategy. The iPad was not introduced with a large premium; other brands are finding i difficult to match the low price.

The 3GS is given away for free.

There is basically no aspirational audience for the iPod. And the iPod was the turning point for the Apple brand, which went from niche to commodity within a few years after introduction.
post #24 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mightymike View Post

Students learn much more on an iPad then from a book

The same was said about the CD-ROM. But they never caught on.

The jury is still out on the textbook/iPad question. As of now, there is no critical mass.
post #25 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

How many do they need to make you happy?

- iPod
- iPhone
- iPad
- MacBook Air
- Apple TV (to a slightly lesser extent)
- Apple Retail Stores
- Apple online store

The iPad is certainly a bigger financial hit for the same them frame than the iPhone. I think it could overtake the iPhone in revenue and profit in a couple years. I also think that in 5 years the iPad could potentially outsell all other PCs combined.

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post #26 of 58
I bought a few more shares just before close on Friday at around 599, and today AAPL takes off like a rocket ship!
post #27 of 58
whatever, Samsung still makes a better refrigerator.
post #28 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

How many do they need to make you happy?

First off it's not about making 'us', it's about making BIG investors happy. We're talking stock price and business here, not end consumer.
Quote:
- iPod

iPod goes in the WAS category for earnings driver. Still a solid performer, It's essentially at a saturation point and isn't going to drive that much future growth, and be a leader for a $1000 stock price. You'd hate to stay a slow decline for the category going forward, but realistically that's what it is without some major deviation in future generations.
Quote:
- iPhone
- iPad

Naturally.
Quote:
- MacBook Air

Maybe, potentially. As of today not exactly just yet. Let's see what happens in the 13 and 15in space this year before calling it a home run yet.
Quote:
- Apple TV (to a slightly lesser extent)

A device made from leftover A5s? Definitely not.
Quote:
- Apple Retail Stores
- Apple online store

Corporate overhead? Expense? Not a Product? May be elegant and good marketing, but also not a $1000 stock driver.

The big one you're missing is iTunes. Otherwise it's going to take another future Home run product to break the next big level from here. What, When are the uncertainty factors.
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I'm not a pessimist. I'm an optimist, with experience.
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post #29 of 58
@thataveragejoe
Exactly man - that's what the fabois seem to miss...

The stock price right now is fixed to the CURRENT successes of the company and some growth in other markets. But for investors to plunk down 40% more to push $1000, Apple NEEDS to have one (if not two) solid products to excited about.

Apple HDTV will NOT be an immediate home run.
I'm not saying that because I am being a naysayer... but the consumer decision process for a $200 iPhone or $500 tablet IS MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH different from a $2999 HDTV. (Assuming a premium price on the TV for a 55" model). As an example... HDTV growth has stalled, for a number of reasons, but the biggest perhaps, is that most households already have one. And "upgrades" for TVs tend more toward replacement because of broken versus just an impulse buy. And if it is an impulse buy, the features have to be compelling enough for a reinvestment of $3000... which may be REALY tough as solid 55" HDTVs are half that price.

Competitors aren't snoozing either. Samsung has a new voice and gesture controlled TV rolling out. Kinect is coming to TV also. And content for TV isn't quite like music either.
post #30 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

. . . Apple fever is spreading like a wildfire around the world and we see no end in sight to this trend," he said.

In particular, White argues that Apple "remains the premiere play on the rise of the mobile Internet around the world" and stands well positioned to capitalize on the trend, especially in China where 3G subscriber rates are expected to swell to 230 million by year's end and make the country's mobile ecosystem "one of the wonders of the technology world."

Finally some sober realism from the analyst world. I like this kind of talk. It means you can still buy in.

Also, for those who don't see where the next big thing is coming from, don't forget wearable screens and wristphones/cameras. There's a long way to go.
post #31 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

I bought a few more shares just before close on Friday at around 599, and today AAPL takes off like a rocket ship!

Nice job grabbing shares on a dip like that, but I don't know that I'd call it taking off "like a rocket ship!".

A $14 move on a $45 stock is a blockbuster. A $14 move on a $600 stock is only 2%. Sure, its far better than staying flat or moving the other direction, but it's the equivalent of Microsoft move of 60 cents. No one notices that.

Just keeping things real
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post #32 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuxoM3 View Post

THIS.

I'm going to play devils advocate on this one... apart from the iPhone and iPad (and MAYBE the Notebook), are there REALLY any other RUNAWAY successes for Apple?

My point is - there's A LOT of expectations for Apple. And the tough thing about being the flavor of the month for consumers and Wall Street, is that unless you keep up the momentum, Apple's meteoric, almost overnight rise, can become an almost overnight free fall.

Apple going into TV is a BIG risk. A TV isn't a $200 phone or $500 iPad or even a $999 notebook pc. It's a $2000+ purchase that most people won't get in line for, get rid of in 2 years.

And given the UI/features found with AppleTV - adding AppleTV to an HDTV really isn't THAT exciting. Really, would you pay a $1000+ premium on a TV, when Apple sells a $99 accessory that allows you to do the same thing?

And if it adds Siri... so you can talk to a TV. Again, a $1000+ worthy feature?

Obviously I am making some assumptions. And again, I am playing devils advocate.


Expect all possible options of how we use and how and where we get are tv shows/movies/games from ...expect a game changer not as a TV for shows/sports, but a centre piece in the house....cost and features should be expected for it to be game changer.
post #33 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuxoM3 View Post

@thataveragejoe
Exactly man - that's what the fabois seem to miss...

The stock price right now is fixed to the CURRENT successes of the company and some growth in other markets. But for investors to plunk down 40% more to push $1000, Apple NEEDS to have one (if not two) solid products to excited about.

Apple HDTV will NOT be an immediate home run.
I'm not saying that because I am being a naysayer... but the consumer decision process for a $200 iPhone or $500 tablet IS MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH different from a $2999 HDTV. (Assuming a premium price on the TV for a 55" model). As an example... HDTV growth has stalled, for a number of reasons, but the biggest perhaps, is that most households already have one. And "upgrades" for TVs tend more toward replacement because of broken versus just an impulse buy. And if it is an impulse buy, the features have to be compelling enough for a reinvestment of $3000... which may be REALY tough as solid 55" HDTVs are half that price.

Competitors aren't snoozing either. Samsung has a new voice and gesture controlled TV rolling out. Kinect is coming to TV also. And content for TV isn't quite like music either.

I see great potential, within the home, for the iPad to become the personal [individual] activity center -- where each individual has his own device for:

-- watching TV
-- watching Movies
-- basic computing
-- special needs
-- religious training
-- workshop and home improvement projects
-- security monitoring and home maintenance
-- installation and repair instruction and reference manuals
-- gardening activities
-- event planning
-- presentations and presentation creation
-- reading and library
-- doing work and homework
-- studying
-- courses, classes, speciality training
-- drill and practice
-- playing games (single or multiplayer)
-- communication (text, email, Skype, FaceTime)
-- activity monitoring and intercommunication
-- taking photos videos
-- creating/editing videos, montages
-- listening/watching music
-- creating music
-- research
-- storyboarding and prototyping ideas
-- collaboration, brainstorming
-- scheduling, calendar, reminders
-- personal care, exercise, health and diet
-- cooking, cooking instruction and recipes
-- itinerary and trip planning
-- shopping, product review, comparison and analysis
-- buying
-- creative writing, drawing, painting, mechanical drawing, drafting, CAD
-- sharing with friends and family

Then, as WiFi and high-speed cellular become ubiquitous and more affordable -- these activities will expand to outside the home -- and into the workplace.

In our home of 2 adults and 3 teenagers, each individual has had an iPad for over 1 year -- and at least one of us has done most (if not all) of the items listed above.

And we ain't seen/done nothin' yet!
"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
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"...The calm is on the water and part of us would linger by the shore, For ships are safe in harbor, but that's not what ships are for."
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post #34 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blah64 View Post

Nice job grabbing shares on a dip like that, but I don't know that I'd call it taking off "like a rocket ship!".

A $14 move on a $45 stock is a blockbuster. A $14 move on a $600 stock is only 2%. Sure, its far better than staying flat or moving the other direction, but it's the equivalent of Microsoft move of 60 cents. No one notices that.

Just keeping things real

Depends on how you are investing... a $550 Call with April expiration would have given you a 25% return; selling a $650 put would also give you similar return.

...and before anybody says that isn't investing, it is just gambling... it depends on what your intent is at option expiration. I've been lucky to have to sell a lot of puts this quarter to end up with some in-the-money to replace shares next month.
post #35 of 58
Steve, you created one fine company.

Please update the AppleInsider app to function in landscape mode.

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Please update the AppleInsider app to function in landscape mode.

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post #36 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd_in_sb View Post

Steve, you created one fine company.

That is Steve's greatest legacy the company (people and mindset) that is Apple.
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post #37 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

The iPad is certainly a bigger financial hit for the same them frame than the iPhone. I think it could overtake the iPhone in revenue and profit in a couple years. I also think that in 5 years the iPad could potentially outsell all other PCs combined.

iPad sale will explode through the roof when we can write on the screen. When that happen, bye bye PC for the majority of people.
post #38 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post

iPad sale will explode through the roof when we can write on the screen. When that happen, bye bye PC for the majority of people.

You can write on the screen already:
http://store.griffintechnology.com/c...-colorstudiohd
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Gatorguy 5/31/13
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post #39 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

You can write on the screen already:
http://store.griffintechnology.com/c...-colorstudiohd

No, not like that. Writing on screen Apple Style. Intuitive, natural and native support. Can be pen, pencil, brush, rubber with handwriting recognition as good as SIRI, and zero lag.
post #40 of 58
Quote:
Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post

No, not like that. Writing on screen Apple Style. Intuitive, natural and native support. Can be pen, pencil, brush, rubber with handwriting recognition as good as SIRI, and zero lag.

There isn't much more 'intuitive or natural' (as you put it) magic to be had. At the root of it you will still need some type of capacitive type pen as long we as are using capacitive touch screens, which have been around for some time. Anything else is just software.
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