Firm slaps $1001 target on Apple shares ahead of $100B integrated television opportunity - Page 2

I believe a couple of people are missing something.

As far as blockbuster products and market drivers toward $1000 stock price:

• iPod
• iTunes
• iPhone
• iPad (Education market, Automotive market, Travel market penetration)
• MacBook Air (already redefined the notebook market)
• iCloud (run away success although not monetized)
• Siri (potential not even close to being realized, think "Made for Siri")
• Maps and Navigation (may help adoption rates in Automotive market?)
• AppleTV (?)

Growth in China, India and Brazil.

I don't believe that a single product line will necessarily move Apple stock another 400 points. Instead, a combination of existing products, known but not-fully-realized products and emerging markets could move Apple Stock another 400 points.

Although I can't see any revolutionary changes Apple could implement in the Television market, I am not sure Apple needs to offer anything revolutionary. The television market is primed for disruptive forces as many people seem disturbed by the high-cost, low-quality offerings of subscription television.

How could apple potentially disrupt the television market? If Apple can replace multiple devices with a single device, AppleTV:

• Retina Display with Siri controls
• Entertainment Center (Genius cataloged with Ping integration to see what your friends are watching and television subscriptions via iTunes)
• Game console (Game Center with high-quality iOS games)
• "Home Center" (Calendar, Contacts, FaceTime, iMessage and "Made for AppleTV" home automation)
• "Learning Center" (educational apps, iTunes U, Podcasts)

It is possible that only Apple is capable of producing high-quality displays (4k x 4k display) at an acceptable price point at this time

Good call!

See Para 4 of: http://hbr.org/2012/04/the-real-lead...teve-jobs/ar/1

I agree with apple being the first trillion solar company and this is why. Apple will be the biggest computer manufacturer in the world this year. Apple tv will come out and sell but iPad/MacBook air/etc... Will out sell every pc manufacturer in the world this year and that will make apple the #1 seller of phones/tablets/pc's in the world which IMHO Merritt the 1001$ a sha price...

"Brain" White lives in a jar in a laboratory. He is doing fine... despite his obvious disadvantages.

i remember getting 1.5% interest on my savings account over a whole year, getting 2% over a weekend is still pretty good doogs in my book.

Revenue means little. If it did, in 2011, for example, GM with $135B in sales should have been a more valuable company than Apple ($127B in sales). Or Exxon Mobil, with forecasted sales of ~$500B in 2012 should be, by far, the world's most valuable company.

Indeed. 2% per day is many hundred % annualized.

Estimated EPS * Estimated PE = Forecasted Stock Price

It worries me more when they turn out as nice round numbers.

"...to go unchecked for the foreseeable future." Wow, these are some heavy, heavy, words. And he's right you know, short of a manufacturing meltdown or natural calamity or (gasp!) Tim Cook's sudden death, Apple is essentially unstoppable, and 3-5 years from now Apple will define and own 75% of the profits of a many trillion dollar electronics marketplace. When you run the 10 year numbers, it's conclusions are staggering.

$1001 share I believe is to conservative, $2,000 is not unreasonable to ponder now.

Wanna fund your retirement in one fell swoop?

Buy 100k of Apple today.

It has nothing to do with revenue but future revenue. And in apple case being the top seller of pc's in the world this years means even more future growth compare to the projections for iPad/iPhone it Merritt's 1001$ a sha IMHO...

Get a clue.

It has nothing to do future revenue either: all that matters is expected future cash flows, and how fast it grows.

#1) Not everyone has $100K lying around.....let alone to invest (all your eggs in one basket) in one company. That's foolish investing.

#2) Care to share how you came to your 10 year numbers?

#3) The global markets are very unstable and can (and might) tank and pull a lot of companies down with it. Do you forget 4 years ago so easily?

Explain your bold statement, please.

Taxes will go up on stock dividends next year also. That will force many longs to cash out.

If they do, it will probably go up from 15% to 20%. Not the end of the world for a lot of people.

Moreover, even if they "cash out", where are they going to put it?

Get a clue

Cash flows means revenue...

This is better thought out than the last part, although it's speculation on where growth is likely to be rather than estimates on how much. Education could be a huge untapped market with textbooks available in ipad form. The others just didn't take them seriously, so they were able to build up a whole ecosystem before other companies really started moving.


That was a remarkably stupid comment, which is silly as the first part was well thought out. Apple really doesn't have much to do with panel development. Best guesses were that Sharp developed it, and Samsung was ahead of them on high res panel testing by at least a year or two (google it). What Apple has in this regard is brand recognition. I think they'd need more. I don't argue that they could bring out an Apple branded television if it had more going for it than just resolution. It's just the idea that they're the only ones who could do it at this point when they actually depend heavily on others for a lot of the R&D that is ridiculous. Apple could basically add their signature styling, possibly the UI, and the weight of their brand.

Sure, but Apple][ said he bought "more shares", not options.

As for "gambling" with options, there's nothing wrong with that either, as long as you can afford to take the losses. Except something like selling naked calls, which normal people should never, ever, ever do.

Heh. One can wish!

anantksundaram, I know you know better, because of your typically high-quality posts here over the years, but for JBFromOZ's benefit, I'll say this:

A 2% in one day in a relatively volatile stock means nothing, because it will just as likely drop 1.5% tomorrow, followed by a rise of 1.7% the next. Unless the goal was to purchase a big chunk on a dip and sell immediately to capture that 2% gain, it's just noise. And unless someone is dealing in fairly large dollar amounts, I'm not sure that's worthwhile.

For example, imagine you bought 10 shares at $600 (yes, very small # of shares, but it's $6k, which is in the range for small investors). Stock moves 2%, or $12/share. Now it's worth $6120, so $120 profit. Minus the in/out commissions, let's say a cheap discount firm @ $8 each way, so profit of $104. Probably not worth the effort and risk of $6k to pull $100 like that, especially because if you try to do it repeatedly you'll lose almost as often as you win, and in the end, commissions will eat you up.

Certainly there are strategies that sophisticated investors can use to do better than this, and if you're investing $600k instead of $6k, that makes the $100 profit more like $10k profit, so scale also matters. But a 2% move in AAPL on any given day just shouldn't be a big a deal for most people.

Bottom line is this: JB, your 1.5% interest on savings is what it is because it's virtually guaranteed. Investing in equities is a very risky game, with potential for large losses.