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Apple expected to become world's first trillion-dollar company by 2014

post #1 of 80
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Shares of Apple have been projected to reach $1,000 in calendar year 2014, which would give the company a market capitalization of about a trillion dollars, making it the first company to ever reach that milestone.

Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray raised his 12-month price target for AAPL stock to $910 on Tuesday, up from his previous prediction of $718. He sees shares of the company reaching the $1,000 mark just beyond his one-year price target window.

As it has for years, the iPhone will continue to drive Apple's growth going forward, Munster believes. He sees at least 70 percent of all two-year-old iPhone owners upgrading in a given quarter.

"That suggests 33% of iPhones in a given quarter through 2015 are 'in the bag,'" he said. "We believe this is conservative given it expects an average iPhone life of 24 months."

Piper Jaffray's surveys found that 30 percent of iPhone 4S buyers at launch were upgrading from an iPhone 4, which suggests the upgrade window for those users is closer to 21 months.

"If we assume an average iPhone life of 21 months, and 85% of users upgrade to a new iPhone, that implies 45% of iPhones through 2015 are 'in the bag,'" he wrote.




For the March quarter, Munster sees Apple selling 33 million iPhones, which is a 10 percent increase from his previous prediction of 30 million. He expects the iPhone will have an average selling price of $630.

"We believe demand remains strong for the iPhone 4S based on global store checks and momentum from the 3rd-gen iPad launch," he said. His estimates are slightly ahead of Wall Street's expectations of 30 million iPhones for the March quarter.

Munster's discussion of a $1,000-per-share value of Apple came just a day after analyst Brian White with Topkea Capital Markets said he expects shares of AAPL to reach $1,001. He sees the price being driven largely by the $100 billion opportunity in the television market, which Apple is widely expected to enter in the next year.

Also this week, Mark Moskowitz with J.P. Morgan increased his December 2012 price target to $715, up from his previous prediction of $625. He sees Apple selling 31.1 million iPhones and 13.8 million iPads in the March quarter.

Apple is scheduled to reveal its earnings for the March 2012 quarter on April 24 after markets close. A conference call with analysts will occur at 2 p.m. Pacific, 5 p.m. Eastern.

[ View article on AppleInsider ]
post #2 of 80
I am an Apple fan. i believe in this prediction, and I never believed any doubts previously expressed here and there concerning its capability to sustain such growth.

However, the big danger for Apple is to become like all gigantic companies, more concerned with resolving their internal conflicts than issuing new products, and listen to their consumers. A few people, no matter how dedicated and talented they can be, cannot run such a large company : new management layers will be added , and result in inefficiency. I wonder how Apple will cope with this ...
post #3 of 80
$1000 per share would put the market cap at $930B, not a trillion.
post #4 of 80
I highly doubt this will happen. Some kind of split in the company will happen before this. We don't like when companies get this big.

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post #5 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by macxpress View Post

I highly doubt this will happen. Some kind of split in the company will happen before this. We don't like when companies get this big.

Splits have nothing to with the aggregate market value.

You have $20 in your wallet whether you have one $20 bill or two $10 bills or four $5 bills twenty $1 bills.
post #6 of 80
PetroChina, when it launched on the Shanghai stock exchange was the first Trillion dollar company in 2007.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2007/nov/06/china
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post #7 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by macxpress View Post

I highly doubt this will happen. Some kind of split in the company will happen before this. We don't like when companies get this big.

Apple Mobility and Apple Solutions!
post #8 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by macxpress View Post

I highly doubt this will happen. Some kind of split in the company will happen before this. We don't like when companies get this big.

Tell it like it is brother! Apple, I believe with all this success, will start to do stupid sh**.
But just give me an Apple smart tv and an iPad that I can write on with no damn lag!!
After that, let them go clinical crazy!
post #9 of 80
I personally don't see this is a "bad" thing, and it really has nothing to do with Apple needing to grow the company, just sales. That is what makes Apple fairly unique in this regard. Imagine moving the Apple products into 50% of every western country household on the planet, whether iOS or OSX device. Then add China, Asia, and the rest at 10%.

That is gonna be one heck of a gross income, for not much more than always producing as much product as the consumer can purchase. It is Apple's lack thereof that gave Android a window of opportunity that was exploited quite well. Since both Google and Microsoft are intent upon continuing to shoot themselves in the foot in various ways, the window is closing rapidly, leaving only Apple devices as the only true integrated and consumer friendly system to consider.

Innovating and producing products that consumers want to buy is what Apple does best. I don't see any reason that they would need to add more personnel to continue to do just that, other than more Apple Stores. Maybe give the folks at UPS and FedEx a personal bonus
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post #10 of 80
It's not going to happen. If Steve Jobs were still alive I'd say it was possible. But Apple has lost its visionary leader. Already, Apple has started to veer away from Steve's way of doing things in little ways. Over time that process will accelerate and Apple will become just another corporate monster. Apple's cachet, so meticulously cultivated by Jobs, will evaporate and sales will stagnate. The inevitable decline has already begun. Apple may be growing for now, but it's just momentum at this point. The driving force is gone.
post #11 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDoppio View Post

Apple Mobility and Apple Solutions!

Ooh....ugh!
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post #12 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePixelDoc View Post

I personally don't see this is a "bad" thing, and it really has nothing to do with Apple needing to grow the company, just sales. That is what makes Apple fairly unique in this regard. Imagine moving the Apple products into 50% of every western country household on the planet, whether iOS or OSX device. Then add China, Asia, and the rest at 10%.

That is gonna be one heck of a gross income, for not much more than always producing as much product as the consumer can purchase. It is Apple's lack thereof that gave Android a window of opportunity that was exploited quite well. Since both Google and Microsoft are intent upon continuing to shoot themselves in the foot in various ways, the window is closing rapidly, leaving only Apple devices as the only true integrated and consumer friendly system to consider.

Innovating and producing products that consumers want to buy is what Apple does best. I don't see any reason that they would need to add more personnel to continue to do just that, other than more Apple Stores. Maybe give the folks at UPS and FedEx a personal bonus

Couldn't have said it better. FedEx and UPS must have a department called 'Not Apple'

My only concern is the possible Apple TV. If Apple products stay as they are now and just keep getting better they can achieve the trillion level but a new product category that fails to please will send the shares down I bet and we all know whatever Apple come out with will be vilified by the Apple haters. Just wait and see ... It won't work if you hold it upside down in a tub of water and shake it and it will be too warm if held underr a duvet for two days or if you sit on the antenna wearing tin foil pants the picture will go fuzzy ...
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post #13 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by popnfresh View Post

It's not going to happen. If Steve Jobs were still alive I'd say it was possible. But Apple has lost its visionary leader. Already, Apple has started to veer away from Steve's way of doing things in little ways. Over time that process will accelerate and Apple will become just another corporate monster. Apple's cachet, so meticulously cultivated by Jobs, will evaporate and sales will stagnate. The inevitable decline has already begun. Apple may be growing for now, but it's just momentum at this point. The driving force is gone.

Totally agree. People just don't understand this fact yet. As one great example, take a look at Apple's newest commercial "iCloud". I sat 3 non-technical people in a room, and not one of them could tell me WTF was going on in that ad. The ad doesn't even have a voiceover to explain what you're watching onscreen. Steve Jobs NEVER would have approved that ad, but now that Phil Schiller is running the marketing show, there's nobody to keep his bad instincts in check anymore. Same thing with all the other executives... Ron Johnson is gone, and the worst retail guy in UK history is now running Apple Retail?! The Titanic is beginning to sink, the cracks are already showing, yet nobody is paying attention.
post #14 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDoppio View Post

Apple Mobility and Apple Solutions!

I think this is sarcasm! If so, this is a very funny jab at Motorola.

If this is a serious posting, this would clearly be the wrong direction for Apple, as one of their few strengths is the tight synergy between all their departments.
post #15 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by scotty321 View Post

Totally agree. People just don't understand this fact yet. As one great example, take a look at Apple's newest commercial "iCloud". I sat 3 non-technical people in a room, and not one of them could tell me WTF was going on in that ad. The ad doesn't even have a voiceover to explain what you're watching onscreen. Steve Jobs NEVER would have approved that ad, but now that Phil Schiller is running the marketing show, there's nobody to keep his bad instincts in check anymore. Same thing with all the other executives... Ron Johnson is gone, and the worst retail guy in UK history is now running Apple Retail?! The Titanic is beginning to sink, the cracks are already showing, yet nobody is paying attention.

What was so complicated about seeing a calendar updated across three devices via iCloud?
What that too hard to grasp?

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post #16 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by scotty321 View Post

Totally agree. People just don't understand this fact yet. As one great example, take a look at Apple's newest commercial "iCloud". I sat 3 non-technical people in a room, and not one of them could tell me WTF was going on in that ad. The ad doesn't even have a voiceover to explain what you're watching onscreen. Steve Jobs NEVER would have approved that ad, but now that Phil Schiller is running the marketing show, there's nobody to keep his bad instincts in check anymore. Same thing with all the other executives... Ron Johnson is gone, and the worst retail guy in UK history is now running Apple Retail?! The Titanic is beginning to sink, the cracks are already showing, yet nobody is paying attention.

I have one suggestion. Find some more intelligent friends.
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post #17 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by popnfresh View Post

It's not going to happen. If Steve Jobs were still alive I'd say it was possible. But Apple has lost its visionary leader. Already, Apple has started to veer away from Steve's way of doing things in little ways. Over time that process will accelerate and Apple will become just another corporate monster. Apple's cachet, so meticulously cultivated by Jobs, will evaporate and sales will stagnate. The inevitable decline has already begun. Apple may be growing for now, but it's just momentum at this point. The driving force is gone.

I agree... SJ was unique in terms of leadership, creativity. He created products and entire new markets that people were not aware they needed. He ran a tight budget on expenses... now they are busy giving themselves huge stock options plans and using the cash to do buybacks, etc. I do not see anybody filling his place. Kind like trying to replace Alexander The Great... nobody even came close.

On the plus side we got the huge Chinese market starting with China Mobile. SJ left Apple TV plans. I am sure they could come with something fancy with all kinds of a la carte features. The problems is that the content out there stinks. No sure the dudes in power got what it takes.

However, the wheels will spin for a while and anything more is beyond my wildest dreams. What a gift. Looking to pay for my kids' education and be comfortable the few years I got.
post #18 of 80
I predict apple will become the first trillion dollar a year company.

$1 a day from 3billion people

or $3 / day for 1 billion

So $1 / day for phone (ASP $630/2yrs), $1 / day tablet, $1 / day computer ($1500/5yrs - generous) or $1 / day content ($365/yr).

$1,000,000,000,000 a year turnover
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post #19 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by AjitMD View Post

I agree... SJ was unique in terms of leadership, creativity. He created products and entire new markets that people were not aware they needed. He ran a tight budget on expenses... now they are busy giving themselves huge stock options plans and using the cash to do buybacks, etc. I do not see anybody filling his place. Kind like trying to replace Alexander The Great... nobody even came close.

On the plus side we got the huge Chinese market starting with China Mobile. SJ left Apple TV plans. I am sure they could come with something fancy with all kinds of a la carte features. The problems is that the content out there stinks. No sure the dudes in power got what it takes.

However, the wheels will spin for a while and anything more is beyond my wildest dreams. What a gift. Looking to pay for my kids' education and be comfortable the few years I got.

You think Steve just conjured all these products up all by himself and none of them were from Jony or other Apple designers and R&D people who came to him with a nifty new idea or prototype that they were working on?

The man was a driving force and had great vision, but to say that with him gone Apple is set to go down the toilet --well that is always possible, but highly likely as you make it sound? At worst I'd say the jury is out.
post #20 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by popnfresh View Post

It's not going to happen. If Steve Jobs were still alive I'd say it was possible. But Apple has lost its visionary leader. Already, Apple has started to veer away from Steve's way of doing things in little ways. Over time that process will accelerate and Apple will become just another corporate monster. Apple's cachet, so meticulously cultivated by Jobs, will evaporate and sales will stagnate. The inevitable decline has already begun. Apple may be growing for now, but it's just momentum at this point. The driving force is gone.

Short much AAPL lately?
post #21 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Oak View Post

What was so complicated about seeing a calendar updated across three devices via iCloud?
What that too hard to grasp?

I completely agree, pretty straight forward. Not everyone is going to understand every commercial. There are countless Apple commercials over the years, while Steve was around, that certain people probably wouldn't understand. As long as the commercial engages the customer and they visit the website, everything can be made sense of.

What about the 1984 commercial that is so famous. I don't believe for one second that an everyday person understood what was going on during the Superbowl when it aired. They might have known it was important and from Apple, but it wasn't exactly the most clean and understanding of commercials.

People love putting the dooms day cap out on Apple since Steve isn't around. I'd agree, the jury is out but to say all the wheels are in motion for Apple to fail is ludicrous. People have been bitching about Apple and their decisions long before Steve died, for instance, the new iTunes logo. People complained up and down that it was horrible. If that happened after Steve had died, people would be screaming from the roof tops how Apple is in a downward spiral. Now it's all an afterthought.
post #22 of 80
This is an interesting prediction.

I look forward to this, their future merger with Weyland-Yutani, and their company spin-off into Apple Communications, Apple Entertainment, Apple Vehicle Division, MacBook Airways, Apple Employment (otherwise known as the 'Job's Jobs Foundation'), Mac-To-The-Future Industrial Computers, Apple Robotic and Cybernetic Division, and Apple Terra-forming.

May we all live long, prosper, use the 4S, think differently, and be excellent to each other.
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post #23 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by scotty321 View Post

Totally agree. People just don't understand this fact yet. As one great example, take a look at Apple's newest commercial "iCloud". I sat 3 non-technical people in a room, and not one of them could tell me WTF was going on in that ad. The ad doesn't even have a voiceover to explain what you're watching onscreen. Steve Jobs NEVER would have approved that ad, but now that Phil Schiller is running the marketing show, there's nobody to keep his bad instincts in check anymore. Same thing with all the other executives... Ron Johnson is gone, and the worst retail guy in UK history is now running Apple Retail?! The Titanic is beginning to sink, the cracks are already showing, yet nobody is paying attention.

it is one of those weird ads to keep you " in the fold" as opposed to " getting you in the fold"...
or " now that were married, let me tell you about..."
post #24 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by GTR View Post

This is an interesting prediction.

I look forward to this, their future merger with Weyland-Yutani, and their company spin-off into Apple Communications, Apple Entertainment, Apple Vehicle Division, MacBook Airways, Apple Employment (otherwise known as the 'Job's Jobs Foundation'), Mac-To-The-Future Industrial Computers, Apple Robotic and Cybernetic Division, and Apple Terra-forming.

May we all live long, prosper, use the 4S, think differently, and be excellent to each other.

Can I play, too????

I predict that Apple will merge with France.
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post #25 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Splits have nothing to with the aggregate market value.

You have $20 in your wallet whether you have one $20 bill or two $10 bills or four $5 bills twenty $1 bills.

Name a company that didn't have its value go down after it was split into different divisions...

It will either start to do stupid things, and/or be forced to do things it doesn't want to do.

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post #26 of 80
Apple will continue on its momentum for a while just like it did the last time Steve departed and it was highly profitable (during the Sculley era). However, these analysts seem to have no vision beyond extending a growth curve out beyond the present along the same line. Apple stock is in a bubble. Be sure to cash out before it pops!
post #27 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by macxpress View Post

Name a company that didn't have its value go down after it was split into different divisions...

It will either start to do stupid things, and/or be forced to do things it doesn't want to do.

Apple has been split into divisions since forever.
post #28 of 80
The idea that Apple's business can't be successful without Steve Jobs is ridiculous. Every other successful company has something in common with Apple — they don't have Steve Jobs either.
post #29 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by sessamoid View Post

Apple has been split into divisions since forever.

The only two real divisions they have are Corporate and Retail. We'll see what happens when Apple Corporate gets split.

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post #30 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Magic_Al View Post

The idea that Apple's business can't be successful without Steve Jobs is ridiculous. Every other successful company has something in common with Apple they don't have Steve Jobs either.

Agreed!

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post #31 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by macxpress View Post

Name a company that didn't have its value go down after it was split into different divisions...

It's happened plenty of times. Remember back in the 80's and 90's when corporate raiders were buying companies and then splitting them up? The fact is that often a conglomerate is worth less than the sum of its parts.

Of course, if the 'parts' logically fit together (as Apple's do), then the conglomerate could be worth more than the sum of its parts. But that's not guaranteed.
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post #32 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

$1000 per share would put the market cap at $930B, not a trillion.

I think I calculated it will need to be $1074 per share, based on the current number of outstanding shares, to reach that level.

Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Splits have nothing to with the aggregate market value.

You have $20 in your wallet whether you have one $20 bill or two $10 bills or four $5 bills twenty $1 bills.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sessamoid View Post

Apple has been split into divisions since forever.

I think he means they will be forced to split the company into two separate companies. But I don't see why that would happen.


Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

PetroChina, when it launched on the Shanghai stock exchange was the first Trillion dollar company in 2007.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2007/nov/06/china

They really should qualify it was sustainable.


Quote:
Originally Posted by popnfresh View Post

It's not going to happen. If Steve Jobs were still alive I'd say it was possible. But Apple has lost its visionary leader. Already, Apple has started to veer away from Steve's way of doing things in little ways. Over time that process will accelerate and Apple will become just another corporate monster. Apple's cachet, so meticulously cultivated by Jobs, will evaporate and sales will stagnate. The inevitable decline has already begun. Apple may be growing for now, but it's just momentum at this point. The driving force is gone.

You're so right¡ Steve died on October 5th and the iPhone 4S was launched on October 14th. If he had been alive there is no way they would have used the same look and design as the iPhone 4. What was Apple thinking?

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post #33 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by macxpress View Post

Name a company that didn't have its value go down after it was split into different divisions...



At&T?

That is just a guess, BTW.
post #34 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by macxpress View Post

Name a company that didn't have its value go down after it was split into different divisions...

It will either start to do stupid things, and/or be forced to do things it doesn't want to do.

I thought you were referring to stock splits. I see you're referring to the market value impact of splitting up a company.

Actually, a preponderance of the empirical evidence there suggests that in enhances value, by getting rid of a conglomerate discount, aligning incentives better, and the simple fact that the ability to trade on a whole portfolio of assets is generally worth less than the ability to trade on individual assets in the portfolio.

There is nothing inherent with splitting up a company that will make it start to do "stupid things" or "things it doesn't want to do." Why do you claim that?
post #35 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by sessamoid View Post

Apple has been split into divisions since forever.

I think he means splitting up into separate publicly traded companies.
post #36 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by lmac View Post

Apple will continue on its momentum for a while just like it did the last time Steve departed and it was highly profitable (during the Sculley era). However, these analysts seem to have no vision beyond extending a growth curve out beyond the present along the same line. Apple stock is in a bubble. Be sure to cash out before it pops!

I'm not sure that with its current P/E it really is a bubble. Then agsain, I'm not sure that the growth rate will continue much longer.

It iwll be interesting to see what happens over the next 3 to 5 years. Anything is possible, but I would not bet against Apple at this point. They are doing remarkably well. And considering how few products they have, in so few categories, they could easily get much bigger, fast.
post #37 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I think I calculated it will need to be $1074 per share, based on the current number of outstanding shares, to reach that level.

Correct. Interesting to see how "$70B" had become a "rounding error" (i.e., $930B can be rounded up to $1T) in much of the market commentary today!

Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

I think he means they will be forced to split the company into two separate companies. But I don't see why that would happen.

I caught that. See above.
post #38 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by Magic_Al View Post

The idea that Apple's business can't be successful without Steve Jobs is ridiculous.

Just look at the Grateful Dead without Jerry. Furthur is just as good!
post #39 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by I am a Zither Zather Zuzz View Post

Just look at the Grateful Dead without Jerry. Furthur is just as good!

Yet they still manage to sell out a majority of their shows, including the up coming tour.

With that aside, are you really comparing a multibillion dollar company with a band?
post #40 of 80
Quote:
Originally Posted by lmac View Post

Apple will continue on its momentum for a while just like it did the last time Steve departed and it was highly profitable (during the Sculley era). However, these analysts seem to have no vision beyond extending a growth curve out beyond the present along the same line. Apple stock is in a bubble. Be sure to cash out before it pops!

The stock is not in a bubble. P/E is low, especially when you exclude cash. Maybe earnings growth won't continue much longer at this pace but it shows no signs of slowing down this year.
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