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Mac shipments slow on absence of new hardware

post #1 of 44
Thread Starter 
Apple is seeing a decrease in year-to-year Mac sales due to a later than usual refresh cycle for its popular MacBook Pro line of notebooks, but analysts expect iPhone and iPad sales to offset the drop.

Morgan Stanley said in a research note released on Thursday that although the U.S. retail market improved in March, Apple's shipment growth atrophied, falling 4 percent compared to the first quarter of 2011 due to a lack of new hardware.

Analyst Katy Huberty notes Apple refreshed its major notebook line this time last year, which is in line with the release model the company has traditionally followed.

When Apple announced its move from PowerPC to Intel processors in 2005, it changed the name of its notebook line, trading in the PowerBook moniker for the new MacBook and MacBook Pro marks. Since the name swap and first MacBook Pro debut in early 2006, the company has been fairly consistent in rolling out new models twice a year. For example, the latest generation MacBook Pro launched in October 2011 while its predecessor was announced in February of that year.

There are years where the MacBook Pro line sees only one refresh, like 2010's mid-year release where Apple transitioned from Intel's Core 2 Duo chips to newer Core i5 and i7 silicon. The stall was presumably due to a constrained supply of Intel's then-new processors.




Huberty expects faster international growth of the current and yet-to-be-released MacBook Pro and MacBook Air product lines to somewhat offset the early 2012 deceleration. Previous estimates from Morgan Stanley were looking at a 15 percent global Mac unit growth. She goes on to say that the divergence between domestic and international growth has jumped from a previous 4 points to 15 points during the last quarter of 2011.

"More importantly, we expect demand upside from iPhone and iPad (83% of gross profit) to more than offset any Mac downside (9% of gross profit)," Huberty writes.

Apple's iPhone and iPad have seen tremendous adoption rates from both U.S. and international customers, with J.P. Morgan estimating that iPhone shipments could reach 28.1 million in the first quarter of 2012 (the company's second fiscal quarter). The success of the third generation iPad has also boosted estimates, which now stand at 13.8 million shipments in the quarter ending in March.

The Cupertino, Calif., tech giant is set to hold its second quarter earnings call on April 24.

[ View article on AppleInsider ]
post #2 of 44
Well, yeah. Intel's taking its sweet time getting new processors out and Apple's taking its sweet time with the new (internals? redesign?) Mac Pro.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #3 of 44
Totally off topic but on a fun note, and I know it has zero meaning, AAPL topped GOOG at close today ...
Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
Reply
Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
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post #4 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Totally off topic but on a fun note, and I know it has zero meaning, AAPL topped GOOG at close today ...

Meaningless? But now all the people who know nothing about the stock market can say that Apple is ahead of Google!

Also, they're only $10 billion away from a $600 billion market cap.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #5 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Totally off topic but on a fun note, and I know it has zero meaning, AAPL topped GOOG at close today ...

What you mean is: AAPL price per share topped GOOG price per share at close today.

In terms of market share, AAPL exceeded GOOG a long time ago.

My Roth IRA, which is chock-full of AAPL is getting happier every day.
post #6 of 44
The good news is that overall PC shipments from the entire industry are down even more, so Apple is still leading the way and kicking ass.

Also, Macs make far less money for Apple than iOS devices do, so the incredible demand for iOS devices will easily take up the slack.

post #7 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleGreen View Post

What you mean is: AAPL price per share topped GOOG price per share at close today.

In terms of market share, AAPL exceeded GOOG a long time ago.

My Roth IRA, which is chock-full of AAPL is getting happier every day.

Hello .. I was referring to share value .... I think I made that point in the , I know it's meaningless, part! The joke is, many, many folks actually think Google was worth more due to share price, I was alluding to that which is often joked about here, as referenced by Tallest Skil above.

We moved the bulk of our IRAs to APPL at 135

Sorry folks I derailed this thread ... Get back on track now!
Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
Reply
Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
Reply
post #8 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Meaningless? But now all the people who know nothing about the stock market can say that Apple is ahead of Google!

Also, they're only $10 billion away from a $600 billion market cap.

One trillion here we come ....
Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
Reply
Enjoying the new Mac Pro ... it's smokin'
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini.
Reply
post #9 of 44
Sales go up when you release new stuff. Who would have ever predicted something like that?
post #10 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Apple is seeing a decrease in year-to-year Mac sales due to a later than usual refresh cycle for its popular MacBook Pro line of notebooks . . .

I firmly believe that Steve Jobs would've been screaming at Intel by now because of the delays in Intel getting their chips out the door. Steve got fed up with Motorola and IBM dragging their feet on updates to the PowerPC processors, and now the same problem is starting to happen with Intel.
post #11 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve_in_Austin View Post

Steve got fed up with Motorola and IBM dragging their feet on updates to the PowerPC processors, and now the same problem is starting to happen with Intel.

*coughARMcough*

Yeah, we're years and years away from that.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #12 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve_in_Austin View Post

I firmly believe that Steve Jobs would've been screaming at Intel by now because of the delays in Intel getting their chips out the door. Steve got fed up with Motorola and IBM dragging their feet on updates to the PowerPC processors, and now the same problem is starting to happen with Intel.

I agree, but last we heard, didn't AMD get canned because of a manufacturing delay as well? Where else can they turn now?
post #13 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aureoloss View Post

I agree, but last we heard, didn't AMD get canned because of a manufacturing delay as well? Where else can they turn now?

See above. I'm not sure AMD was ever in the cards.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #14 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Hello .. I was referring to share value ....

Wasn't clear to me that you were.
post #15 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

*coughARMcough*

Yeah, we're years and years away from that.

HAHA if apple goes to arm for desktop you will see the death of apple desktops. Lets not fool ourselves, arm may be great for mobility, but its not where close to Intel desktop performance nor will they ever be close.

arm dominance will be gone as soon as 2014. Intel already beats dual core arm cpu with its single core solution and intel fab is about 3 to 4 years ahead of any foundry
post #16 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

See above. I'm not sure AMD was ever in the cards.

amd was in the running for new airs but failed to deliver in quantity and quality. Excellent gpu performance but low cpu performance.
post #17 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve_in_Austin View Post

I firmly believe that Steve Jobs would've been screaming at Intel by now because of the delays in Intel getting their chips out the door. Steve got fed up with Motorola and IBM dragging their feet on updates to the PowerPC processors, and now the same problem is starting to happen with Intel.

so??

do you know if tim isn't already burning intel's CEO's family and eating them after it?
post #18 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post

do you know if tim isn't already burning intel's CEO's family and eating them after it?

Sounds like a possibility.

Steve, on the other hand, was a vegan.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #19 of 44
Yes and here I am, cash in hand, waiting waiting waiting waiting for the 17" MacBook Pro with Bluetooth 4...
post #20 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkyMark7 View Post

Yes and here I am, cash in hand, waiting waiting waiting waiting for the 17" MacBook Pro with Bluetooth 4...

You will have to wait 2/3 months
post #21 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

See above. I'm not sure AMD was ever in the cards.

I really don't think they'll move towards using them on desk/laptops.
post #22 of 44
Count me as part of this group. I'm on a 2008 MacBook Pro 17" 3,1 that's about to EOL. Was offered a new 15" MBP, but declined. Waiting to see if the 17" line will live on and, if so, in what type of configuration.

Tick tock...
post #23 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bregalad View Post

Sales go up when you release new stuff. Who would have ever predicted something like that?

I'm not surprised at all, I tell anyone that will listen to wait no matter what sort of PC you want to buy. At this point you are talking weeks to a couple of months.
post #24 of 44
But DUDE, Samsung has a ChromeBook you can get............. (with obvious sarcasm)

What's funny is that the average Joe doesn't understand the product cycles and how it affects their shipments. People see a decline in sales and think everyone is abandoning Apple, when it is just a simple preconceived drop due to ramping down of one product and ramping production of a new product that is creating pent up demand.

Not to worry, the lines will still be out the door come product release time. Apple stores are still packed just it's Christmas. Jeeeeeezzz.

I cannot believe the paranoia at Intel. I guess Andy Grove's management style is still alive and well at Intel. I don't know why Intel cares, Apple still uses Intel processors for their laptops and desktops. So if the computer that shipped has an Apple logo or not, they shouldn't mind. I mean at least Apple also uses an Intel designed Thunderbolt connector which the others don't.
post #25 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Just_Me View Post

amd was in the running for new airs but failed to deliver in quantity and quality. Excellent gpu performance but low cpu performance.

In the AIR, Mini and some other machines the CPU performance would not have been that bad. Now that AMD is producing they are getting a lot of design ins due to the APUs extremely good value in laptops. Llano isn't as bad as many seem to believe.
post #26 of 44
what new hardware? just put a beta voice-recognition software like Siri on every single Mac books and call it "Mac Book S"
post #27 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by tooltalk View Post

what new hardware? just put a beta voice-recognition software like Siri on every single Mac books and call it "Mac Book S"

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #28 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bregalad View Post

Sales go up when you release new stuff. Who would have ever predicted something like that?

Well, not Palm or HP.
post #29 of 44
now, seriously.. Where is my 15" MBA?
post #30 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Just_Me View Post

amd was in the running for new airs but failed to deliver in quantity and quality. Excellent gpu performance but low cpu performance.

The Air was/is a huge seller for Apple. It shows that powerful is not what it use to be. So ARM seems to be working well for task not needing so much power, like content consumption in iOS devices, and Airplay allows it to migrate to larger screens. That said, if ARM can leverage the GPU by oft-loading a lot of the CPU's computation task to multi-core GPU designs, then ARM, along with Apple's optimization and propriety design, might/can be as powerful as an iMac for the consumer market.*

* Apple's market has effectively changed from Pro to Prosumer to Consumer by anybody's metric over the last few years, and since Apple only seems to do what they do best, if it ain't for the consumer don't hold your breath waiting for it.
post #31 of 44
Wonder if Intel is pretending to be late with ivy bridge just so it's ultra campaign can gather steam?
post #32 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by ssls6 View Post

Wonder if Intel is pretending to be late with ivy bridge just so it's ultra campaign can gather steam?

My thoughts exactly
post #33 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Just_Me View Post

HAHA if apple goes to arm for desktop you will see the death of apple desktops. Lets not fool ourselves, arm may be great for mobility, but its not where close to Intel desktop performance nor will they ever be close.

arm dominance will be gone as soon as 2014. Intel already beats dual core arm cpu with its single core solution and intel fab is about 3 to 4 years ahead of any foundry

i think you are missing the big picture. intel is late getting this tick out and it is expected to only be 15% faster clock for clock. The cost per node in foundry build out is growing faster each genation. First we saw the death of frequecy growth along the lines of Moores law. That happened back in 2002 when prescott failed to add anything but extra heat when the clock reached between 2 and 3 ghz. Next we are seeing bigger is better falling by the wayside in gpu's. first AMD went with smaller more efficient cores in their flagship (6970) and now nvidia hs followed suit. The 680 launch has ditched the framework from the 580 and used a smaller die size to focus on performance per watt.

Intel is 2 generations late to the smart phone wars. First the iPhone stole mindshare and developers attention from Windows machines, and then the iPad killed netbooks and now it is eating the 2nd laptop in the family market. Worse still enterprises are busy depolying the more locked down and portble iPad through out the fortune 500. Intel is trying to fight the Macbook air with marketing when the problem is windows. You can't make a profitable laptop for under $800 with the windows and intel taxes taking $250 off the top.

I do not believe that Intel or Microsoft are unaware of these problems. The problem is that they are both addicted to the cash flow from their current business model. How is a one process node lead going to save Intel if the competition can sell $20 chips that provide 50% of the processing power with one tenth the power draw? The increased efficeincy gives Arm the room to grow more powerful chips. What will Intel do in 2 more nodes (4 years) when 90% of the power of their chips only costs $20. How will they pay for the 10 billion $ fabs needed to build their chips if 40% of their market has already switched?

it is not a good time to own these companis.
post #34 of 44
I want my first Mac, I have Money, I'm Waiting.... I just dont know what the hell I'm waiting on because I dont know what's coming because of all this secret secret crap. It's driving my NUTS!!!
post #35 of 44
"More importantly, we expect demand upside from iPhone and iPad (83% of gross profit) to more than offset any Mac downside (9% of gross profit)," Huberty writes.

Great more iOS users... now they can change the name again to. Apple toys

IOS : dumbing down of apple will be complete
post #36 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by tooltalk View Post

what new hardware? just put a beta voice-recognition software like Siri on every single Mac books and call it "Mac Book S"

lol.
post #37 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Just_Me View Post

amd was in the running for new airs but failed to deliver in quantity and quality. Excellent gpu performance but low cpu performance.

True, but that doesn't mean that they won't be considered in the future. AMD's competitiveness has cycled back and forth for decades. Sometimes they're not very competitive. At other times, they do pretty well. I could picture them making some headway - perhaps in the iMac line, for example.

Of course, I don't see them replacing Intel across the board.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ljocampo View Post

The Air was/is a huge seller for Apple. It shows that powerful is not what it use to be. So ARM seems to be working well for task not needing so much power, like content consumption in iOS devices, and Airplay allows it to migrate to larger screens.

How does the MBA show that ARM is working well? The MBA uses an Intel chip and tells you nothing about whether ARM would work at all.

Even though the Air uses a low performance Intel chip (by some standards), it's still probably an order of magnitude faster than the fastest ARM chip available today.
"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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post #38 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macnewsjunkie View Post

i think you are missing the big picture. intel is late getting this tick out and it is expected to only be 15% faster clock for clock. The cost per node in foundry build out is growing faster each genation. First we saw the death of frequecy growth along the lines of Moores law. That happened back in 2002 when prescott failed to add anything but extra heat when the clock reached between 2 and 3 ghz. Next we are seeing bigger is better falling by the wayside in gpu's. first AMD went with smaller more efficient cores in their flagship (6970) and now nvidia hs followed suit. The 680 launch has ditched the framework from the 580 and used a smaller die size to focus on performance per watt.

Intel is 2 generations late to the smart phone wars. First the iPhone stole mindshare and developers attention from Windows machines, and then the iPad killed netbooks and now it is eating the 2nd laptop in the family market. Worse still enterprises are busy depolying the more locked down and portble iPad through out the fortune 500. Intel is trying to fight the Macbook air with marketing when the problem is windows. You can't make a profitable laptop for under $800 with the windows and intel taxes taking $250 off the top.

I do not believe that Intel or Microsoft are unaware of these problems. The problem is that they are both addicted to the cash flow from their current business model. How is a one process node lead going to save Intel if the competition can sell $20 chips that provide 50% of the processing power with one tenth the power draw? The increased efficeincy gives Arm the room to grow more powerful chips. What will Intel do in 2 more nodes (4 years) when 90% of the power of their chips only costs $20. How will they pay for the 10 billion $ fabs needed to build their chips if 40% of their market has already switched?

it is not a good time to own these companis.

If Apple was so stupid to move their Macbooks to ARM....they would lose me as a customer in a heartbeat. I love my iPhone, love my iPad, but at times I need a computer to do real work. An ARM CPU would kill a Macbook for anything but web surfing.

I use iPhoto, iMovie, Aperture, Office.....all of which are not speed demons on my current Intel Core 2 duo 2009 2.53ghz Macbook. I want the latest i5 or i7 in a Macbook, I plan to buy in the fall, not some ARM chip or even some ultra power sipping version of the i5/i7.
post #39 of 44
Is there still someone out there buying overaged, underpowered, and completely overpriced Mac Pros?
post #40 of 44
Quote:
Originally Posted by agramonte View Post

"More importantly, we expect demand upside from iPhone and iPad (83% of gross profit) to more than offset any Mac downside (9% of gross profit)," Huberty writes.

Great more iOS users... now they can change the name again to. Apple toys

IOS : dumbing down of apple will be complete

Except some of us aren't about to buy any iPhones or iPads until Apple has a computer we want to spend money on.
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