Originally Posted by MacQuest
As an Apple employee at the time, I told 3 people to buy AAPL on Thursday April 24th of 2003, 4 days before the late Steve Jobs introduced the iTunes store on Monday April 28th 2003.
The stock had dipped down to under $13 a share at that time because of rumors/fears that SJ was going to take Apple into the movie industry, thus deviating from it's core computer and technology product business model, because of his being the CEO of Pixar and reports of him meeting with exec's at Universal/Viacom as well as other MOVIE studios previously (Warner Bros., Sony, etc.).
While he WAS meeting with those people at those companies, it was to negotiate for the MUSIC content at that time, NOT the MOVIE content, much less to get into PRODUCING movie content.
My Apple ESP (Employee Stock Purchase) price at that time was just over $10 (20% discount from market value which again, was under $13).
One of the 3 people argued with me saying "Why would I buy Apple stock for $10 a share when I can buy 10 shares of (some Chinese bean stock - seriously) at only $1 a share and have 10x more shares?!"
"I'm not responsible for other people's lack of foresight, much less their ignorance." - ME, 2001
For the person arguing that this is close to insider trading, it's not.
For it to be insider trading:
1. The person would have to have access to non-public information. Since a lot of people knew about Jobs' meeting with those executives, it wasn't non-public. Similarly, if the meetings took place in a public location, then by definition simple knowledge of the meeting would not be non-public.
2. The information would have to be material. There are very few scenarios where simply knowing that two people met would be material. Simply knowing that Jobs met with Sony tells you nothing.
Originally Posted by djmikeo
I guess what I get out from this is if I had bought an equal about of shares of Google and Apple a year ago, the Apple shares would be worth a whole lot more. Consider 100 shares of each.
Google closed at 474.18 or $47418 Today? $63232 or $15,814 increase in value
Apple closed at 338.04 or $33804 Today? $63368 or $29,564 increase in value
And my Apple portfolio is now worth more than my Google portfolio.
That's really the key. Or, more importantly, a prediction of future gains or losses. Apple is on a very strong growth curve with modest P/E ratios. Google's P/E ratios are higher and growth rates are substantially less. Furthermore, there are plenty of potential problems in Google's future:
- Revenues from Android phones are very disappointing
- Falling ad prices
- Samsung getting into mobile advertising
- Fragmentation of Android continues (and may even be accelerating)
- Acquisition of Motorola may turn out to be an albatross
- Motorola acquisition does not appear to protect them from patent problems as they had hoped.