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Analyst cuts AAPL rating on iPhone subsidy backlash, estimates $1B earnings miss - Page 2

post #41 of 95
4/9/12 at 8:56pm
Paid shill for the Telcos lowers Apple's rating. Very transparent.
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post #42 of 95
4/9/12 at 8:57pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by SongEmu View Post

If they're losing so much money, maybe they shouldn't be selling the Lumia 900 at such a blatant loss. There's your first mistake. Let the handset stand up on its own, not a $150 million ad campaign.

Microsoft is subsidizing that loss.
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post #43 of 95
4/9/12 at 9:02pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by grover432 View Post

I'd like to see them back it up by shorting the stock.

Than you!
This is total BS!
When the next iPhone drops later this year it will sell like 4 million units in a few days.
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post #44 of 95
4/9/12 at 9:05pm
I suspect we are a looking at another person who can do no more than criticize (meaning he invents nothing, manufactures nothing, and contributes nothing to the lives of others or to the country in which he lives) who is looking for two things:

1. A way to increase his name in the news so he can sell his criticisms for more $$$.

2. Trying to influence the opinion of telecoms by getting some negative into print. It often works well because newsies normally just quote each other rather than actually discover something about which to report.

As someone once said, "Nobody has ever erected a statue to honor a critic."
SkyKing
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SkyKing
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post #45 of 95
4/9/12 at 9:05pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macnewsjunkie View Post

The analysts have been right one quarter out off the last ten years. Even a monkey throwing darts at a random chart could do better than that.

This isn't about predicting the market. It's about manipulating the market. It starts with a few analyst seeding doubts about Apple's sustainability. Then a few more spread more worries. After a while a few brokers dump their clients stocks to drop the price. A few more rumors and they could move the market 200 points. After all Apple has just grown exponentially in the last 3 months. Prime time for the brokers to cash in.
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post #46 of 95
4/9/12 at 9:07pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

I can't seem to locate the word "coroporation" in the dictionary.

Really I honestly like the thought. Coroporation. Maybe we need to change the english dictionary terereminlology. LOL. Get it.
An Apple man since 1977
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An Apple man since 1977
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post #47 of 95
4/9/12 at 9:16pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by maccherry View Post

Than you!
This is total BS!
When the next iPhone drops later this year it will sell like 4 million units in a few days.

Hence the reason why this article surfaced, also, today.

http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/04/app...loser-to-1001/

Why does Apple bashing and trolling make people feel so good?

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Why does Apple bashing and trolling make people feel so good?

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post #48 of 95
4/9/12 at 9:23pm
"Of course, our thesis will not be supported in the current quarter as the pent up demand in China and the launch of the iPhone in 30 additional markets is likely to drive strong sales that will offset the sequential declines in other markets," Piecyk says.

Translation: Don't blame us when we turn out to be completely wrong, because we said we'd be wrong before we were right. By the time it's time for us to be right, we'll have some other thesis entirely.
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post #49 of 95
4/9/12 at 9:42pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

We expect post-paid wireless operators to remain firm in their plan to stunt the pace of phone upgrades in 2012 and we expect to see some initial evidence of their success in the current quarter, Piecyk says.

In regard to how greatly this will affect Apple, Piecyk expects that "in the United States, we expect iPhone sales to decline 4 million sequentially to 9 million with the largest impact coming from AT&T, Apples largest customer." This would relate to a worldwide drop in sales of 27.5 million units in Apple's fiscal quarter third quarter, "resulting in a revenue estimate that is $1 billion below consensus.

I don't buy this argument, and even if he is right about the situation in the US I'm not sure how he's extrapolating the worldwide drop from the US decline. Has he factored in the fact that in China, most people pay full-price for their phones?

Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Adding to his iPhone assertions, Piecyk dismisses the rumors of an Apple HDTV launch in 2012 and downplays the Chinese iPad market citing the tablet's high price point.

Right, Chinese are too poor to afford iPads. Just like they they are too poor to afford luxury cars, such as Bentley.

http://www.insidermedia.com/insider/...mes-top-market
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post #50 of 95
4/9/12 at 9:52pm
Analyst blah blah blah. All I know is that I am used to a new subsidized iPhone each year, every year. If this changes, it'd suck. I am ready for The New iPhone this fall, but I happened to check my upgrade date yesterday and the upgrade date is May 2013. Screw that.....
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post #51 of 95
4/9/12 at 10:03pm
It is plausible the carriers will try to get greedy. Sure AT&T would love to have more people embrace Microsoft or Android based phones because it can 1) force people to pay the same price for the same data plan as iPhone, and 2) pay less in a subsidy for a lower quality phone.

However, people making this argument seem to suggest the carriers are losing money with the iPhone. That simply isn't the case. The subsidy is paid off before the first year is up. THe second year is profit.

For carriers to abandon Apple, people will have to ditch Apple in significant numbers for the carriers other options. In truth, I think the carriers likely will embrace other offerings, especially those by Microsoft because Microsoft is desperate to get its foot in the door and it is paying big dollars to try and make that happen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jmmx View Post

I have to say, of all the purveyors of negativity on Apple, this guy at least has a reasonably plausible argument. I think he does exaggerate the impact and ignore compensating growth factors. But at least it is a coherent argument.
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post #52 of 95
4/9/12 at 10:05pm
The carriers are unlikely to stop subsidizing the iPhone UNLESS they are prohibited from locking customers into a 2 year contract. Since I see no indication this is happening anytime soon I'd say this analyst's opinion is just that. An opinion and you know what they say about options. Opinions are like assholes and everybody has one
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post #53 of 95
4/9/12 at 10:09pm
Another reason I like T-Mobile. You do pay less if the phone isn't subsidized.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post

I wasn't aware the carriers were supposed to make money from selling the phones. The carriers sell services... which is what they charge a monthly fee for.

I'm an American... so I only know subsidies. My 16GB iPhone only cost me $200 because Verizon subsidized it. Basically... Verizon then wrote a check to Apple for the remaining $450.

But Verizon does that because they will make it up by me paying a monthly fee over the life of my contract... or at least that's what's supposed to happen.

If that's not working anymore... the carriers need to fix it.

I could certainly afford paying the full $650 for an iPhone.... but not if I'll be paying the same monthly fee as a subsidized customer.

Subsidized:
$200 phone + $90 a month

Unsubsidized:
$650 phone + $90 a month (?)

That doesn't make any sense at all...

If the carriers aren't gonna "finance" new phone sales anymore... then it's back to the drawing board...
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post #54 of 95
4/9/12 at 10:45pm
The iPhone subsidy isn't outrageous and given what the carriers charge for data, it's clear that they're doing just great with their current pricing. If they choose to tighten their upgrade policy, it will only delay new iPhone purchases (upgrades) by 3-6 months. Those who want to stick with an iPhone will continue to do so. So really the impact to Apple's earnings in quarters where a new phone is launched may be pressured by the lack of early upgrades, Apple will still make it up in the following quarters as consumers become eligible to upgrade.

Moreover, this analyst fails to consider the faster pace of international rollouts that Apple now does. With each successive year and each successive product launch, it seems Apple is getting their latest products into more markets more quickly. The additional sales that they pick up internationally, more than makes up for a few less early upgrades in the US during new iPhone launches.
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post #55 of 95
4/10/12 at 12:24am
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

These sad clowns are under no obligation to tell the truth in their little PR fluff pieces, and time after time they've proven the are only out for their own interests... which is what anyone should assume anyway.

Half of them are wrong half the time.

So, he flaps his arms and cries, "The stock is falling, the stock is falling."

Methinks Walter is a little chicken.
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post #56 of 95
4/10/12 at 12:28am
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

Microsoft is subsidizing that loss.

And Ballmer laughed at the original Apple iPhone because it cost a whopping $500... five years later, he's shaking the piggy bank to buy a tiny piece of that big joke.
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post #57 of 95
4/10/12 at 2:24am
This is how Apple laughs back-

Apple market cap: $593B
share price: $636

MS market cap: $260B
share price: $31

I like Apple's version better.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post

And Ballmer laughed at the original Apple iPhone because it cost a whopping $500... five years later, he's shaking the piggy bank to buy a tiny piece of that big joke.
Originally Posted by Granmastak: Labor unions managed to kill manufacturing a long time ago with their unreasonable demands. Now the people they were trying to protect, are out of a job.
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Originally Posted by Granmastak: Labor unions managed to kill manufacturing a long time ago with their unreasonable demands. Now the people they were trying to protect, are out of a job.
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post #58 of 95
4/10/12 at 2:35am
Quote:
Originally Posted by studiomusic View Post

They had this guy on CNBC this morning.

CNBC is apparently the Fox News of the Business news channels. I can't back it up, but when I watch twitter for AAPL , apparently CNBC moves markets, often in the opposite direction. Bloomberg on the other hand doesn't move the market when they have people on that talk about AAPL.

The AAPL pattern is, up on monday and tuesday, down on wednesday, thursday, and then the last 30 minutes of friday is a market-correction to push up or down below weekly option expiry. When the analysts were predicting unicorns and rainbows to make AAPL "miss" it didn't even miss it's own numbers, just the analysts numbers. Yet the stock price went down to the 200DMA and then shot straight back up 4 weeks before Janurary's earnings. Talk about no confidence in supposed weakness.

So it's pretty safe to say that the Analysts are just making guesses. If anything, AT&T would have deserved the downgrade if that was in fact what AT&T was considering doing. This is a non-event. Ultimately what you'll see is that wireless companies will raise the price of the phone, or stop subsidizing using their own money (As in requiring more expensive post-paid plans.)
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post #59 of 95
4/10/12 at 3:45am
Perhaps Ed Zabisky\tACI Research\t$270\t 25-Jan-12
should go on TV and explain how AAPL should be $270 and is now $639.

I like the position of "It has done so well, it can't possible go any higher." First time I heard that was when AAPL was $30. That was when I loaded up.
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post #60 of 95
4/10/12 at 4:09am
I prefer your foresight to my hindsight-

I believe Apple can make good on that $1000 a share.


Quote:
Originally Posted by efithian@mac.com View Post

Perhaps Ed Zabisky\tACI Research\t$270\t 25-Jan-12
should go on TV and explain how AAPL should be $270 and is now $639.

I like the position of "It has done so well, it can't possible go any higher." First time I heard that was when AAPL was $30. That was when I loaded up.
Originally Posted by Granmastak: Labor unions managed to kill manufacturing a long time ago with their unreasonable demands. Now the people they were trying to protect, are out of a job.
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Originally Posted by Granmastak: Labor unions managed to kill manufacturing a long time ago with their unreasonable demands. Now the people they were trying to protect, are out of a job.
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post #61 of 95
4/10/12 at 5:08am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

I can't seem to locate the word "coroporation" in the dictionary.

You could have fun making your own definition up for that one, it's a doozy!
Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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post #62 of 95
4/10/12 at 5:13am
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

He's not saying whose fault it is, he's saying that it won't go on forever and when it does stop, it's Apple that sells less phones. I think it's eventually true but I think he's a bit early on this prediction.

Historically Apple seem to keep well timed new cards up their sleeves when products start to reach saturation, even being willing to cannibalize them.

I fully expect we will all be here in the future, talking about the tear away success of another Apple product filling in and compensating for iPhone sales decline when that day finally arrives.
Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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post #63 of 95
4/10/12 at 5:21am
Quote:
Originally Posted by ghostface147 View Post

Analyst blah blah blah. All I know is that I am used to a new subsidized iPhone each year, every year. If this changes, it'd suck. I am ready for The New iPhone this fall, but I happened to check my upgrade date yesterday and the upgrade date is May 2013. Screw that.....

I'm ready to get off that treadmill. Now that it's possible to get a regional carrier (which uses the AT&T network, so I won't lose any coverage) at a deeply discounted price with no subsidy, I'm going that way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by KingKuei View Post

The iPhone subsidy isn't outrageous and given what the carriers charge for data, it's clear that they're doing just great with their current pricing.

I'm paying $150 for two lines with limited data (2 GB on one line and 150 or 250 MB on the other). For $90, I can get two lines on Straight Talk with unlimited data. So I save $60 per month or $1440 over 2 years.

I can buy a new iPhone for $700 and sell my old one for about $300. My daughter's phone is about $400 and the old one will sell for perhaps $100. So my net cost is $600, saving me $840 over 2 years. Heck, even if I replace the phones EVERY year, I come out ahead.

Only 2 more months until my AT&T contract expires.

Quote:
Originally Posted by uguysrnuts View Post

This is how Apple laughs back-

Apple market cap: $593B
share price: $636

MS market cap: $260B
share price: $31

I like Apple's version better.

You forgot a few:
AT&T market cap: $182 B
Verizon market cap: $106 B
BITG Research market cap: $17.52
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post #64 of 95
4/10/12 at 5:45am
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

He's not saying whose fault it is, he's saying that it won't go on forever and when it does stop, it's Apple that sells less phones. I think it's eventually true but I think he's a bit early on this prediction.

Technologically, the iPhones are failing behind but thanks to poor marketing on the part of Android and the market fractionation of manufacturers, Apple has been spared - for the moment. Life cycles happen and it will happen to Apple as well.
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post #65 of 95
4/10/12 at 5:50am
I actually concur with him.

When looking for a new phone, the 4s just wasn't appealing to me. I went with a Galaxy Note and I'm very happy with it. I was surprised at how happy I was with it (and still am). Android has come a long way. There's a good bit of competition. iOS isn't the game changer it once was.

I know many others who have also jumped ship from iOS to Android. I suspect we're going to see a leveling off and even decline of iPhone sales. Probably the carrier decisions aren't made in a vacuum but with the knowledge that lots of customers are happy with Android phones so iPhone doesn't have the same leverage as before.
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post #66 of 95
4/10/12 at 6:37am
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptMatt View Post

I actually concur with him.

When looking for a new phone, the 4s just wasn't appealing to me. I went with a Galaxy Note and I'm very happy with it. I was surprised at how happy I was with it (and still am). Android has come a long way. There's a good bit of competition. iOS isn't the game changer it once was.

I know many others who have also jumped ship from iOS to Android. I suspect we're going to see a leveling off and even decline of iPhone sales. Probably the carrier decisions aren't made in a vacuum but with the knowledge that lots of customers are happy with Android phones so iPhone doesn't have the same leverage as before.

Thanks for that. I can't speak for everyone but I'd say that most of us have never heard this perspective before.
We know where you are. We know where youve been. We can more or less know what youre thinking about. - Eric Schmidt
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We know where you are. We know where youve been. We can more or less know what youre thinking about. - Eric Schmidt
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post #67 of 95
4/10/12 at 6:53am
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptMatt View Post

I actually concur with him.

When looking for a new phone, the 4s just wasn't appealing to me. I went with a Galaxy Note and I'm very happy with it. I was surprised at how happy I was with it (and still am). Android has come a long way. There's a good bit of competition. iOS isn't the game changer it once was.

I know many others who have also jumped ship from iOS to Android. I suspect we're going to see a leveling off and even decline of iPhone sales. Probably the carrier decisions aren't made in a vacuum but with the knowledge that lots of customers are happy with Android phones so iPhone doesn't have the same leverage as before.

Given that the statistics seem to demonstrate otherwise in terms of sales, your example doesn't have legs to stand on, moreover the track record of this analyst is very poor. In this same article the analyst retracted his $600 predicted cap for Apple stock price after it was overrun thoroughly. The rest of your statements reflect only your personal preference, not an accurate picture of the market. So you support the premise of a proven incompetent analyst and see that as a wise thing?

Perhaps you can post for us pictures of you holding that massive slab up to your face while talking on the phone? Also reminding myself to buy stock in stylus companies as the predicted resurgence of resistive/capacitative stylus use driven by the Galaxy Note will take the market by storm!
If you are going to insist on being an ass, at least demonstrate the intelligence to be a smart one
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If you are going to insist on being an ass, at least demonstrate the intelligence to be a smart one
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post #68 of 95
4/10/12 at 6:53am
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptMatt View Post

I actually concur with him.

When looking for a new phone, the 4s just wasn't appealing to me. I went with a Galaxy Note and I'm very happy with it. I was surprised at how happy I was with it (and still am). Android has come a long way. There's a good bit of competition. iOS isn't the game changer it once was.

I know many others who have also jumped ship from iOS to Android. I suspect we're going to see a leveling off and even decline of iPhone sales. Probably the carrier decisions aren't made in a vacuum but with the knowledge that lots of customers are happy with Android phones so iPhone doesn't have the same leverage as before.

The problem with his analysis is that what you're describing has been going on since the beginning. Apple has always lost a few customers to Android (and to other vendors). Android has lost customers to Apple. Historically, Apple's customer retention has been extremely high and the analyst has not presented any evidence suggesting that it has changed.

Now, the analyst is claiming something different. He's claiming that:
1. The carriers are suddenly unhappy with subsidizing phones.
2. Somehow the carriers' unhappiness will cause Apple's sales to decline.

It's interesting to note that he has no evidence for either of those claims.
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post #69 of 95
4/10/12 at 7:11am
EVERYONE IS NOW GREEDY IN CORPORATE AMERICA... Story at 11.
I'm surprised this hasn't been more prominent. It's a mystery of the completely obvious.
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post #70 of 95
4/10/12 at 7:57am
I don't understand why you guys keep posting news like this. Every time it's the same responses they don't know what their talking about, Apple is invincible, no one else has products that even come close, they should fire the guy, who do those people think they are, ect.

I just want the stock to split again. We bought 1,000 shares at 14 back in 2001 and have not sold since. After the split in 2005 we received 2,000 shares, we've bought 500 more shares since then and now own 2500. Needless to say we've made a total investment of just about 30,000 dollars. Nothing compared to what the stock has netted us today. Unfortunately it looks like we're going to have to liquidate half of it to pay for medical bills for me and to pay off our house. Which will makes us completely debt clean. Which is what I want if I go. Whatever is left over I want to reinvest into Nokia. That's another stock that is about to take off again, so is Samsung.
I've seen things you little people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion bright as magnesium. I rode on the back decks of a blinker and watched c-beams glitter in the...
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I've seen things you little people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion bright as magnesium. I rode on the back decks of a blinker and watched c-beams glitter in the...
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post #71 of 95
4/10/12 at 8:00am
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

The problem with his analysis is that what you're describing has been going on since the beginning. Apple has always lost a few customers to Android (and to other vendors). Android has lost customers to Apple. Historically, Apple's customer retention has been extremely high and the analyst has not presented any evidence suggesting that it has changed.

Now, the analyst is claiming something different. He's claiming that:
1. The carriers are suddenly unhappy with subsidizing phones.
2. Somehow the carriers' unhappiness will cause Apple's sales to decline.

It's interesting to note that he has no evidence for either of those claims.

And if he did he wouldn't him trading the stock be insider trading. I know several people who switched to Android and ultimately ended up with iPhones again.
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post #72 of 95
4/10/12 at 8:01am
Quote:
Originally Posted by dbtinc View Post

Technologically, the iPhones are failing behind but thanks to poor marketing on the part of Android and the market fractionation of manufacturers, Apple has been spared - for the moment. Life cycles happen and it will happen to Apple as well.

In what way?
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post #73 of 95
4/10/12 at 8:18am
Quite the bubble mentality here! Apple certainly isn't going to collapse, but the days of making easy money with that stock are gone.

If you'd like an example of "bubble mentality" consider this article: http://www.investorelite.com/article...ousing-bubble/

My favorite quote from the article: "Want to know how bad the housing bubble is going to get? Look around you right now, today December 30th 2005 is as bad as its going to get."

The almost complete denial of any weakness to the stock is classic bubble mentality. At this point new Apple investors are only lining the pockets of existing shareholders.
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post #74 of 95
4/10/12 at 8:20am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Relic View Post

Whatever is left over I want to reinvest into Nokia. That's another stock that is about to take off again, so is Samsung.

Ditto!
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post #75 of 95
4/10/12 at 8:21am
Money talks (profits), b*lls*it walks (analysts)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Misa View Post

CNBC is apparently the Fox News of the Business news channels. I can't back it up, but when I watch twitter for AAPL , apparently CNBC moves markets, often in the opposite direction. Bloomberg on the other hand doesn't move the market when they have people on that talk about AAPL.

The AAPL pattern is, up on monday and tuesday, down on wednesday, thursday, and then the last 30 minutes of friday is a market-correction to push up or down below weekly option expiry. When the analysts were predicting unicorns and rainbows to make AAPL "miss" it didn't even miss it's own numbers, just the analysts numbers. Yet the stock price went down to the 200DMA and then shot straight back up 4 weeks before Janurary's earnings. Talk about no confidence in supposed weakness.

So it's pretty safe to say that the Analysts are just making guesses. If anything, AT&T would have deserved the downgrade if that was in fact what AT&T was considering doing. This is a non-event. Ultimately what you'll see is that wireless companies will raise the price of the phone, or stop subsidizing using their own money (As in requiring more expensive post-paid plans.)
Originally Posted by Granmastak: Labor unions managed to kill manufacturing a long time ago with their unreasonable demands. Now the people they were trying to protect, are out of a job.
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Originally Posted by Granmastak: Labor unions managed to kill manufacturing a long time ago with their unreasonable demands. Now the people they were trying to protect, are out of a job.
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post #76 of 95
4/10/12 at 8:25am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Relic View Post

I don't understand why you guys keep posting news like this. Every time it's the same responses they don't know what their talking about, Apple is invincible, no one else has products that even come close, they should fire the guy, who do those people think they are, ect.

That is, of course, total nonsense.

When someone posts a legitimate, well-supported complaint about Apple, it is readily accepted. It is the endless FUD that people spread with no evidence and no basis in facts that gets flamed.
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post #77 of 95
4/10/12 at 8:28am
1 - Too true.

2 - Android folks here may not like that statement.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AdonisSMU View Post


1- And if he did he wouldn't him trading the stock be insider trading.

2 - I know several people who switched to Android and ultimately ended up with iPhones again.
Originally Posted by Granmastak: Labor unions managed to kill manufacturing a long time ago with their unreasonable demands. Now the people they were trying to protect, are out of a job.
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Originally Posted by Granmastak: Labor unions managed to kill manufacturing a long time ago with their unreasonable demands. Now the people they were trying to protect, are out of a job.
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post #78 of 95
4/10/12 at 9:00am
Apple up $3.79 at this point today. Sounds like the market is voting with its feet.
A.k.a. AppleHead on other forums.
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A.k.a. AppleHead on other forums.
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post #79 of 95
4/10/12 at 9:14am
What a crappy way to make a living. Pay must be good, though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

Paid shill for the Telcos lowers Apple's rating. Very transparent.
Originally Posted by Granmastak: Labor unions managed to kill manufacturing a long time ago with their unreasonable demands. Now the people they were trying to protect, are out of a job.
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Originally Posted by Granmastak: Labor unions managed to kill manufacturing a long time ago with their unreasonable demands. Now the people they were trying to protect, are out of a job.
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post #80 of 95
4/10/12 at 9:17am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robin Huber View Post

Apple up $3.79 at this point today. Sounds like the market is voting with its feet.

Up $0.07 now.
PhilBoogie
That's Google alright. For a stupid company they sure do dumb things.
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PhilBoogie
That's Google alright. For a stupid company they sure do dumb things.
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