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Apple stock closes down 4.15% in largest point drop plunge

post #1 of 79
Thread Starter 
Apple stock has shifted downward dramatically over the last week, falling from a 52 week high of 644 down to close at 580 today. Today's drop amounted to $25.10, which appeared to be its largest single point drop.

Apple's share price is still high for the year, having fallen only back down to prices last seen in the middle of March. The company's stock rapidly and steadily appreciated from $411 at the beginning of January, surging on the news of the company's spectacular winter quarter sales.




Some reports attributed the drop to rumors initiated by BITG Research analyst Walter Piecyk, who went against the grain last week in issuing a downgrade on the company based on fears that mobile carriers would begin refusing to pay top subsidies to carry the iPhone.

Piecyk wrote that mobile carriers have "offered generous upgrade policies including some that enabled a fully subsidized phone upgrade only one year in to a two year contract," but warned, "We expect those policies to change as the faster upgrade rate of smartphones compared to legacy feature phones has been a costly surprise to post-paid and pre-paid operators, alike."

As a result, Piecyk predicted a worldwide drop in Apple's iPhone sales of 27.5 million units in the company's fiscal quarter third quarter, "resulting in a revenue estimate that is $1 billion below consensus.”

"Of course, our thesis will not be supported in the current quarter as the pent up demand in China and the launch of the iPhone in 30 additional markets is likely to drive strong sales that will offset the sequential declines in other markets," the analyst wrote.

Carriers have made changes to their boost short term profits after paying Apple industry leading upfront subsidies and guaranteeing minimum iPhone sales with prepaid blocks of orders. Verizon Wireless, for example, has instituted a new $30 fee for upgrading, a move that appears intended to recapture profits from its existing Android users who want to upgrade to an iPhone.

However, a sales collapse due to new carrier fees has not occured in the face of previous efforts by carriers to protect their bottom line with even more expensive early termination fees and other charges targeted at iPhone buyers.

Additionally, there's nothing new about predicting that Apple might lose ground with lower carrier subsidies. Last year, James Ratcliffe, an analyst at Barclays, warned of virtually the same thing, predicting that Verizon would only sell 9 million iPhones in 2011 and AT&T would only sell 6 million, due in part to cuts in carrier subsidies that would make iPhones appear to be more expensive.

In reality, AT&T sold 9.4 million iPhones just in the fourth calendar quarter of 2011, and Verizon sold 4.3 million in the same quarter. Neither carrier has cut its iPhone subsidies, even as Sprint and a variety of new carriers have joined Apple in selling iPhones in the US.

Additionally, Apple is widely expected by analysts to sell 30-37 million iPhones in the current quarter, nearly as many as it did in its blockbuster winter quarter. American carriers have not signaled any intention of cutting their iPhone subsidies, and internationally many carriers sell iPhones at full price. Apple also sells iPad, iPod and Mac products that aren't affected by carrier subsidies and make up roughly half of its business.

[ View article on AppleInsider ]
post #2 of 79
Just to remind the clown who doubted what I was saying...

http://forums.appleinsider.com/showp...8&postcount=31
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post #3 of 79
Buying opportunity!
post #4 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Just to remind the clown who doubted what I was saying...

http://forums.appleinsider.com/showp...8&postcount=31

post #5 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Just to remind the clown who doubted what I was saying...

http://forums.appleinsider.com/showp...8&postcount=31


Nice!
post #6 of 79
Profit taking before earnings release. Nothing to see here, move on.
post #7 of 79
Analysts are useless.
post #8 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post

Profit taking before earnings release. Nothing to see here, move on.

Hmmm... profit taking didn't occur during the last release.
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post #9 of 79
If Microsoft dropped that much it would be 5 bucks a share.
post #10 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheat Thins View Post

If Microsoft dropped that much it would be 5 bucks a share.

Give it time...


j/k
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post #11 of 79
Wasn't Thursday/Friday/Monday the biannual options week sell off where fund shares must be sold off and then repurchased as required by the fund mandates?

Or am I mixing stuff up here?
post #12 of 79
I stopped reading at "analyst"
Flying is not inherently dangerous, but terribly unforgiving of any mistakes, neglect or inattention to detail.
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Flying is not inherently dangerous, but terribly unforgiving of any mistakes, neglect or inattention to detail.
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post #13 of 79
I've been reading some explanations as to the causes and possible reasons behind AAPL's five day in a row drop, and most of them seem like complete made up BS, IMO. Some news articles are blaming some minor piece of bad news, without providing any evidence linking the two or explaining the logic behind their claims. There hasn't really been any major negative news about Apple that would cause such a sell off, not even close to it. There's always the usual doom and gloom news about Apple, practically 365 days a year. And sometimes that news is even based on complete fabrications, such as the false stories and lies spread about Apple and Foxconn by some obese guy, whose name escapes me at the moment, but I can't be bothered to look up that loser's name on Google.

I'm pretty new to the stock market, but I have my own opinion about this matter, and I believe that the selloff might be a combination of things:

(1) A completely natural correction since AAPL has climbed rather quickly recently. It was obviously not going to continue to rise like that forever.
(2) Large institutions selling off and possibly trying to manipulate the market ahead of earnings next week.
(3) Panicky retail investors and average Joes who get shaken out of the market. People without balls should not be in the stock market. The stock market is not for pussies.
(4) Sales caused by computerized trigger points.
(5) The general state of things globally, with economic worries in Europe etc.

AAPL will begin to climb again soon. Exactly when is anybody's guess. Next week's earnings should be interesting.
post #14 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Just to remind the clown who doubted what I was saying...

http://forums.appleinsider.com/showp...8&postcount=31

The sun shines on a dogs @ss every once in a while...

Mac Mini (Mid 2011) 2.5 GHz Core i5

120 GB SSD/500 GB HD/8 GB RAM

AMD Radeon HD 6630M 256 MB

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Mac Mini (Mid 2011) 2.5 GHz Core i5

120 GB SSD/500 GB HD/8 GB RAM

AMD Radeon HD 6630M 256 MB

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post #15 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by macxpress View Post

The sun shines on a dogs @ss every once in a while...

The other guy was going after me fairly hard for the simple thing I was saying. He didn't even have the balls to place a non monetary bet with me.

He deserves the moniker I gave to him...

... and this dog's ass is very tanned.
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post #16 of 79
A new analyst, same old game. Talk it down. Buy it lower, sell it higher. Bet this analyst makes a market in AAPL. He's likely in the options business and had to force AAPL down to make his profit or not take a loss, depending on whether this was a call or put.
post #17 of 79
Here's why. Aapl went up and up and up to about 625-635. It tried at least three times, maybe four to rise higher. It proved it couldn't. Folks reasoned that if it couldn't go up and stay up any longer then it would be flat to sinking. So they decided to sell and lock in earnings.

That was my impulse, but of course I didn't sell. Because I'm an amateur and nver can get myself to follow those impulses. But the pros can. Now they'll test it down until it can't stay down any longer... And I'll mistime getting in again, but will pick it up in time to make my standard $500.
post #18 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Just to remind the clown who doubted what I was saying...

http://forums.appleinsider.com/showp...8&postcount=31

post #19 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

.
(5) The general state of things globally, with economic worries in Europe etc.

This is something that is rarely mentioned. What is the state of the market in general. If it is going up but Apple down, then I might worry. But if it is all going down, not so much

Combine this with the recent hyperbolic mostly FUD over the sudden 'flood' of Mac viruses and the supply issues with the iPad. Plus the lack of computer updates that 'should have happened by now' and it spells a drop. Not the first time, not likely to be the last

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #20 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Just to remind the clown who doubted what I was saying...

http://forums.appleinsider.com/showp...8&postcount=31

Quote:
Originally Posted by macxpress View Post

The sun shines on a dogs @ss every once in a while...

Or a broken clock will be right twice a day.

To island hermit: next time you have some stock tips, please let me know. I have some money that I'm looking to invest and seeing you predicted this you should be able to predict other changes as well. Let's get rich together.

Author of The Fuel Injection Bible

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Author of The Fuel Injection Bible

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post #21 of 79
I am betting it is reluctant institutional selling. End of quarter and they have sell some shares to keep under their 5% holding rule. Stock price should rebound as soon as this selling is done.
post #22 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by EricTheHalfBee View Post

Or a broken clock will be right twice a day.

To island hermit: next time you have some stock tips, please let me know. I have some money that I'm looking to invest and seeing you predicted this you should be able to predict other changes as well. Let's get rich together.

Never ever take stock advice from someone on the internet... but you already know that.
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post #23 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ric2 View Post

I am betting it is reluctant institutional selling. End of quarter and they have sell some shares to keep under their 5% holding rule. Stock price should rebound as soon as this selling is done.

Rebound as soon as the selling is done?

Let's see the quarterly first.
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post #24 of 79
Buying Opportunity for those that want to get in. Run has been too far too fast. Earnings should be good ,however good with Apple is not good enough. The earnings on the 24th have to be Pristine.
Be aware though if the market pulls back........so will Apple
post #25 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

AAPL will begin to climb again soon. Exactly when is anybody's guess. Next week's earnings should be interesting.

And if the earnings don't meet expectations do you really think that the 3rd or 4th fiscal earnings will be any better in July and October?

These guys will dump AAPL using the excuse that Apple didn't match the holiday quarter. That's all they need for a small panic.
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post #26 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Rebound as soon as the selling is done?

Let's see the quarterly first.

It will certainly be interesting. In the past the market has reacted to incredible news witha selloff, but that seems to be going on now. Most of these gamers like to bet against AAPL. They have always lost. Maybe the manipulators know something we don't. Or maybe they are just manipulating the market like they always do. Perhaps it is time to add a couple hundred more shares. I usually miss the bottom, I'll have to check the price more often tomorrow.
post #27 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

And if the earnings don't meet expectations do you really think that the 3rd or 4th fiscal earnings will be any better in July and October?

These guys will dump AAPL using the excuse that Apple didn't match the holiday quarter. That's all they need for a small panic.


The problem with meeting expectations is that the expectations are all over the map, does Apple need to beat the very highest expectations or if it just meets the average of all analyist expectations the stock will tank. The institutional guys (70% holders of AAPL) hold Apple to a higher standard then any other company in the market. I think the fund guys still can't get in their head what Apple is today, they still see it as the bit player of the 90's and sell at every bad Apple news no matter how silly or inconsequential.
post #28 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by ktodack View Post

The problem with meeting expectations is that the expectations are all over the map, does Apple need to beat the very highest expectations or if it just meets the average of all analyist expectations the stock will tank. The institutional guys (70% holders of AAPL) hold Apple to a higher standard then any other company in the market. I think the fund guys still can't get in their head what Apple is today, they still see it as the bit player of the 90's and sell at every bad Apple news no matter how silly or inconsequential.

Apple will do just fine... but these guys do have to make money... and they'll make it any way that they can. It's all guess work no matter who holds AAPL... some people can afford better calculators than us, though, and they play the odds.
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post #29 of 79
profit-taking to pay taxes.

Time to buy in!

F
post #30 of 79
Remember that brokers make their commissions on both sides. Both buying and selling.

So they need churn.

What do we have, folks?

Churn.
post #31 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Just to remind the clown who doubted what I was saying...

http://forums.appleinsider.com/showp...8&postcount=31

Doubting a guess...ok
post #32 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by webfrasse View Post

Doubting a guess...ok

He said I should know when the next bad news would come out if I was so damn smart... I think I did okay and it isn't the first time by any stretch... and since it's all a guess no matter who you are (unless you're an inside trader).
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post #33 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by SongEmu View Post

Analysts are useless.

Hence the inclusion of the word 'anal' in their description.

All these posts about stock and market analysis, yet not a single person has accurately assessed the situation and spoken out about the truth?

I suppose someone should step up to the plate:

Apple is doomed.

(Slapppy was correct)
post #34 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by franktinsley View Post

image

I think you need the Woz version of that.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #35 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by ktodack View Post

The problem with meeting expectations is that the expectations are all over the map, does Apple need to beat the very highest expectations or if it just meets the average of all analyist expectations the stock will tank. The institutional guys (70% holders of AAPL) hold Apple to a higher standard then any other company in the market. I think the fund guys still can't get in their head what Apple is today, they still see it as the bit player of the 90's and sell at every bad Apple news no matter how silly or inconsequential.

Excellent point! Yep, some people don't respect Apple, AAPL… They don't want to accept that their past predictions on Apple turned out to be wrong! So they look for anything negative about Apple!

Steve Jobs passed and a lot of pundits predicted GLOOM!!! They'll had to eat their predictions too… Talking AAPL down won't change that fact!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

I've been reading some explanations as to the causes and possible reasons behind AAPL's five day in a row drop, and most of them seem like complete made up BS, IMO. Some news articles are blaming some minor piece of bad news, without providing any evidence linking the two or explaining the logic behind their claims. There hasn't really been any major negative news about Apple that would cause such a sell off, not even close to it. There's always the usual doom and gloom news about Apple, practically 365 days a year. And sometimes that news is even based on complete fabrications, such as the false stories and lies spread about Apple and Foxconn by some obese guy, whose name escapes me at the moment, but I can't be bothered to look up that loser's name on Google.

I'm pretty new to the stock market, but I have my own opinion about this matter, and I believe that the selloff might be a combination of things:

(1) A completely natural correction since AAPL has climbed rather quickly recently. It was obviously not going to continue to rise like that forever.
(2) Large institutions selling off and possibly trying to manipulate the market ahead of earnings next week.
(3) Panicky retail investors and average Joes who get shaken out of the market. People without balls should not be in the stock market. The stock market is not for pussies.
(4) Sales caused by computerized trigger points.
(5) The general state of things globally, with economic worries in Europe etc.

AAPL will begin to climb again soon. Exactly when is anybody's guess. Next week's earnings should be interesting.

579.86 -25.37 (-4.19%)

64 off High of 644!!!! A STEAL!!!
http://www.google.com/finance?client=ig&q=NASDAQ:AAPL

BTW, Google was down on 4/16/12 too and just as badly!!! While others guess:

http://www.techinvestornews.com/Apple looking to grab headlines with Provocative Language like:

Top 5 Reasons Apple Could Be Cracking - Fast Money - CNBC - CNBC http://j.mp/IhA3T9

Apple is growing: http://j.mp/I0AWAh WORLDWIDE!!!

The Pundits have to keep their Headlines provocative to attract audiences, eyeballs, clicks!!!!

Future iPhones, iPads, Mac & iOS Software -- ALL those Upgrades will keep adding to Apple's fire for YEARS to come, as the world transitions to a more Mobile Future, away from the mostly Windows!!! Apple TV, iTV, iPanel, or whatever Apple calls their Next Big Thing will be another Game Changer, which will get better with time!!!

Guessing the Bottom or the High to Sell or Buy is for Fools, Speculators etc!!!!

Congratulations to those who bought AAPL in the last few days!!!

The Higher the AAPL Goes, the Wider the Price Swings will get… There probably is or will be a Graph Chart to prove that point…

Steve Jobs built a great Team, Company, and AAPL Shareholders will be a happy bunch for years to come!!!

Go  Apple!!!

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Go  Apple!!!

Reply
post #36 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by macologist View Post

Congratulations to those who bought AAPL in the last few days!!!

Especially so to those who bought on the morning of April 10!
post #37 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by I am a Zither Zather Zuzz View Post

Especially so to those who bought on the morning of April 10!

I can't believe I'm saying this but... +1 to that comment.
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post #38 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by plovell View Post

Remember that brokers make their commissions on both sides. Both buying and selling.

So they need churn.

What do we have, folks?

Churn.

Correct.

Since I took over the family estate Morgan Stanley doesn't show much interest in the estate now that I tell them if and when we buy or sell. The stockbroker doesn't even bother calling anymore.
post #39 of 79
Fxxk the option traders for killing options buyers unfairly !!
post #40 of 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by meeksdigital View Post

I stopped reading at "analyst"

LOL.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

(1) A completely natural correction since AAPL has climbed rather quickly recently. It was obviously not going to continue to rise like that forever.
(2) Large institutions selling off and possibly trying to manipulate the market ahead of earnings next week.
(3) Panicky retail investors and average Joes who get shaken out of the market. People without balls should not be in the stock market. The stock market is not for pussies.
(4) Sales caused by computerized trigger points.
(5) The general state of things globally, with economic worries in Europe etc.

AAPL will begin to climb again soon. Exactly when is anybody's guess. Next week's earnings should be interesting.

Amen. I'm really surprised at how "pussy" some investors are, when fundamentals and logic are staring them right in the eyes. Unfortunately, many of us with balls to stick to our logistics have to roll our eyes through some of this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by I am a Zither Zather Zuzz View Post

Especially so to those who bought on the morning of April 10!

Yes, actually. Even the guy/girl who payed $644. In a year+ (or sooner) from now, they'll be up enough to not care whether they bought in at $600 or $644. I remember when I bought at the top when the top was $422.... going into that manipulated "miss" earnings call. Not feeling too bad about that buy now.
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