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Apple stock closes down 4.15% in largest point drop plunge - Page 2

post #41 of 79
4/17/12 at 1:11am
Its the usual crap, drive the price down prior to the earnings report then it jumps up massively and these fuckers make a fortune.
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post #42 of 79
4/17/12 at 3:14am
It is against the law not to mention your stock investment when discussing a stock.
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post #43 of 79
4/17/12 at 3:47am
At about 2:00 AM Pacific Time, Google Finance showed the early-early "Pre-Morning Trading" (I never understood what this is, as U.S Markets are obviously closed.... Euro trading obviously?) of AAPL at $9.00 down.... insane!

Now, it's only showing it down about $1.00 (3:45 Pacific time).

Jittery hands man. If you can't take the heat, stay out the kitchen!
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post #44 of 79
4/17/12 at 4:14am
Quote:
Originally Posted by irnchriz View Post

Its the usual crap, drive the price down prior to the earnings report then it jumps up massively and these fuckers make a fortune.

Yep. Thankfully I'm in it for the long haul but I'm glad some of my other stock positions don't swing as wildly as Apple does.
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post #45 of 79
4/17/12 at 4:46am
Old Native American folk law:

Analyst who predict share price fall he bad man who speak with forked tongue.

Analyst who predict share price rise he wise man with wisdom and foresight.

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post #46 of 79
4/17/12 at 5:13am
Quote:
Originally Posted by zaren View Post

Buying opportunity!

+1

Did so, yesterday. Actually, I had an order sitting there for just this opportunity.
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post #47 of 79
4/17/12 at 5:17am


If you know anything about Apple you'd realize that looking at 6 months worth of number is not important to a company like this. Job's wanted this company to have long-term goals. Look at the stock chart for 2 years or even 10 years ago. This last 6 months was a HUGE spike and it is totally premature. Personally it was over inflated by "analysts" and now they are paying the price for it. The market it biting back.

https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp...:AAPL&&fct=big

if you look at the last 5 years, you'll see a pretty fast rise in stock price since 2008 Dec. As deserved at it might have been, that could not continue forever. Then starting Dec 2011 you see this massive spike in the price. It's like the housing bubble all over again. My prediction is that AAPL will probably level off if we don't see any new products for the rest of the year and it will probably slowly level off at around 400, where it should have been right about now if it weren't for this spike you see over the past 6 months.
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post #48 of 79
4/17/12 at 5:30am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun, UK View Post

Old Native American folk law:

Analyst who predict share price fall he bad man who speak with forked tongue.

Analyst who predict share price rise he wise man with wisdom and foresight.


The guy who doesn't know a thing about Stocks (self admitted) sticking his nose in with a bearish sentiment that he knows nothing about, again.

Let me spell it out for you: F.U.N.D.A.M.E.N.T.A.L.S.

Do you know that AAPL trades at bargain basement prices for a company that has been growing almost 100% year over year? Do you know that they can buy entire Countries with their hoard of cash? Do you know that they have no debt? Do you know what a P/E ratio is? Do you know that AAPL trades at a Forward P/E of around 12? Do you know that that's much less than the average ho-hum Company on the S&P? Do you know that they just issued a Dividend? Do you know that they are still very much a growth company?

If you do know so, then you'd know that the bearish sentiments are wrong, because they're not backed up by any fundamental logic in any which way.
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post #49 of 79
4/17/12 at 6:07am
Quote:
Originally Posted by antkm1 View Post



If you know anything about Apple you'd realize that looking at 6 months worth of number is not important to a company like this. Job's wanted this company to have long-term goals. Look at the stock chart for 2 years or even 10 years ago. This last 6 months was a HUGE spike and it is totally premature. Personally it was over inflated by "analysts" and now they are paying the price for it. The market it biting back.

if you look at the last 5 years, you'll see a pretty fast rise in stock price since 2008 Dec. As deserved at it might have been, that could not continue forever. Then starting Dec 2011 you see this massive spike in the price. It's like the housing bubble all over again. My prediction is that AAPL will probably level off if we don't see any new products for the rest of the year and it will probably slowly level off at around 400, where it should have been right about now if it weren't for this spike you see over the past 6 months.

I find it amazing that whenever people point to technicals and the recent price history of the AAPL stock for the absolute and definitive proof that it indeed is overvalued, they conveniently seem to forget the revenue and profit increase in the same period? As if the stock price is somehow totally disconnected from the performance of the actual company.

I bet that if you overlay that particular graph on the stock price graph you would actually come to the conclusion (like many of us) that it is actually *still* undervalued.

Does anyone know why this way of looking at Apples recent success/valuation seem to be so popular? I.e as if the market rules that apply to every other listed consumer electronics company on earth does not somehow apply to Apple?
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post #50 of 79
4/17/12 at 6:08am
Quote:
Originally Posted by antkm1 View Post




https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp...:AAPL&&fct=big

if you look at the last 5 years, you'll see a pretty fast rise in stock price since 2008 Dec. As deserved at it might have been, that could not continue forever. Then starting Dec 2011 you see this massive spike in the price. It's like the housing bubble all over again. My prediction is that AAPL will probably level off if we don't see any new products for the rest of the year and it will probably slowly level off at around 400, where it should have been right about now if it weren't for this spike you see over the past 6 months.

If you look at Apple's earnings when the stock was 400, and Apple's earnings today, what sort of a difference do you see?
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post #51 of 79
4/17/12 at 6:32am
4.15%?

Are we sure it wasn't 4.14888899345%?
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post #52 of 79
4/17/12 at 6:33am
I'll give my reasons for the drop:
1. April options expiry. Stock price trends to max pain point.
2. $630 was the most Apple should trade at until new earnings. Knew I should have sold...
3. Lack of new buyers. When funds or individuals re-balance their portfolios, there's nobody left to jump in.
4. Consistent climb since (before) last quarterly earnings release. History says we need a blow-out this quarter to regain momentum, and history doesn't like the April quarter.

I'll even give some credence to tax selling, but I doubt that has much impact. Big money needs to pay estimated taxes to avoid penalties.

AAPL should hang out from $579-606 for the next week or two, and then begin the slow climb to $650-700 over the next three months, assuming they hit $11.75 EPS. If Chinese New Year was as good as I am hoping thougH, there might be a bit more upside. The following quarter will likely be flat.
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post #53 of 79
4/17/12 at 6:47am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonteponte View Post

I bet that if you overlay that particular graph on the stock price graph you would actually come to the conclusion (like many of us) that it is actually *still* undervalued.

Does anyone know why this way of looking at Apples recent success/valuation seem to be so popular? I.e as if the market rules that apply to every other listed consumer electronics company on earth does not somehow apply to Apple?

I can't link the image from my iPad, But you see huge P/E compression from 35 to 15-20 range in the 2008 crash, a partial recovery to 30 before C3Q2009 earnings after which it dropped to 18-22 for the following quarter. The pattern repeats every quarter through C3Q2011, where after a consolidation period began a steady expansion from 11 to a peak of around 18.

As for the second part of the question... Some people think stock splits have a huge impact on a company...
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post #54 of 79
4/17/12 at 6:57am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

I've been reading some explanations as to the causes and possible reasons behind AAPL's five day in a row drop, and most of them seem like complete made up BS, IMO. Some news articles are blaming some minor piece of bad news, without providing any evidence linking the two or explaining the logic behind their claims. There hasn't really been any major negative news about Apple that would cause such a sell off, not even close to it. There's always the usual doom and gloom news about Apple, practically 365 days a year. And sometimes that news is even based on complete fabrications, such as the false stories and lies spread about Apple and Foxconn by some obese guy, whose name escapes me at the moment, but I can't be bothered to look up that loser's name on Google.

I'm pretty new to the stock market, but I have my own opinion about this matter, and I believe that the selloff might be a combination of things:

(1) A completely natural correction since AAPL has climbed rather quickly recently. It was obviously not going to continue to rise like that forever.
(2) Large institutions selling off and possibly trying to manipulate the market ahead of earnings next week.
(3) Panicky retail investors and average Joes who get shaken out of the market. People without balls should not be in the stock market. The stock market is not for pussies.
(4) Sales caused by computerized trigger points.
(5) The general state of things globally, with economic worries in Europe etc.

AAPL will begin to climb again soon. Exactly when is anybody's guess. Next week's earnings should be interesting.

Add to your list: A rumor was picked up by some institutional investors that AAPL next earnings release will fall short of analyst estimates.
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post #55 of 79
4/17/12 at 7:25am
Oh, look. It's up over nine bucks in less than an hour of trading.

So is Google, which was also down yesterday.

Sounds like yesterday was just a sell-off day for tax purposes.

Nothing to see here, as expected.

Oh, right, Apple Is Doomed still, though.
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post #56 of 79
4/17/12 at 7:40am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Oh, look. It's up over nine bucks in less than an hour of trading.

So is Google, which was also down yesterday.

Sounds like yesterday was just a sell-off day for tax purposes.

Nothing to see here, as expected.

Oh, right, Apple Is Doomed still, though.

Of course Apple isn't doomed but I wouldn't get too excited about the stock price until we see how it goes next week.
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post #57 of 79
4/17/12 at 7:58am
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Of course Apple isn't doomed but I wouldn't get too excited about the stock price until we see how it goes next week.

Well, we're an hour and a half in and they've regained half of what they lost over all of yesterday.
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post #58 of 79
4/17/12 at 8:21am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Well, we're an hour and a half in and they've regained half of what they lost over all of yesterday.

Just half... let's see how it looks next week before earnings.
We know where you are. We know where youve been. We can more or less know what youre thinking about. - Eric Schmidt
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post #59 of 79
4/17/12 at 8:40am
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Just half... let's see how it looks next week before earnings.

...and only up half of yesterday's drop.

But, volume is up relative to the past month, so this might have been the only drop you get to see.
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post #60 of 79
4/17/12 at 9:06am
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

...and only up half of yesterday's drop.

But, volume is up relative to the past month, so this might have been the only drop you get to see.

As long as the volume doesn't mean they are selling into the rallies.
We know where you are. We know where youve been. We can more or less know what youre thinking about. - Eric Schmidt
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We know where you are. We know where youve been. We can more or less know what youre thinking about. - Eric Schmidt
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post #61 of 79
4/17/12 at 9:21am
I though that was just called a market correction or more likely profit taking....

What specifically about this is news worthy????
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post #62 of 79
4/17/12 at 9:32am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Godzilla View Post

The guy who doesn't know a thing about Stocks (self admitted) sticking his nose in with a bearish sentiment that he knows nothing about, again.

Let me spell it out for you: F.U.N.D.A.M.E.N.T.A.L.S.

Do you know that AAPL trades at bargain basement prices for a company that has been growing almost 100% year over year? Do you know that they can buy entire Countries with their hoard of cash? Do you know that they have no debt? Do you know what a P/E ratio is? Do you know that AAPL trades at a Forward P/E of around 12? Do you know that that's much less than the average ho-hum Company on the S&P? Do you know that they just issued a Dividend? Do you know that they are still very much a growth company?

If you do know so, then you'd know that the bearish sentiments are wrong, because they're not backed up by any fundamental logic in any which way.

I was making a satirical point about how analyst comments on here are lauded when they say what you want to hear and lambasted when they say what you dont want to hear, regardless of the veracity of their reasoning. Clearly my sense of humour was lost on you.

As for the remainder of your arguments I simply do not believe or accept a word you say because to put it blunting YOU DON'T HAVE A FUCKING CHRYSTAL BALL SO YOU DON'T KNOW ANYMORE THAN THE REST OF US WHAT THE FUCKING SHARE PRICE IS GOING TO DO OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS.

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post #63 of 79
4/17/12 at 9:50am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun, UK View Post

YOU DON'T HAVE A FUCKING CHRYSTAL BALL SO YOU DON'T KNOW ANYMORE THAN THE REST OF US WHAT THE FUCKING SHARE PRICE IS GOING TO DO OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS.


Well... It might not be a crystal ball, and long term is harder to project than near term, but given certain inputs you can make reasonable projections to where things will go.

When we hit un-charted territory (such as the mythical $1,000 price point for the stock), all bets are off. If you look at some of the unaffiliated analysts, you can see a bit less rosy tone in the better ones these days. I'd suggest taking a look at this analysis: http://aaplmodel.blogspot.com/
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post #64 of 79
4/17/12 at 10:17am
Who says it has to be news worthy?


Quote:
Originally Posted by sranger View Post

I though that was just called a market correction or more likely profit taking....

What specifically about this is news worthy????
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Originally Posted by Granmastak: Labor unions managed to kill manufacturing a long time ago with their unreasonable demands. Now the people they were trying to protect, are out of a job.
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post #65 of 79
4/17/12 at 11:43am
Apple is DOOMED!!!!!
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post #66 of 79
4/17/12 at 12:43pm
And up again. Gambling has that kind of pattern.

J.
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post #67 of 79
4/17/12 at 12:46pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by jnjnjn View Post

And up again. Gambling has that kind of pattern.

J.

I constantly hear people say that playing the stock market is the same as gambling. I've never seen it that way. In gambling one throw of the dice can wipe you out and the house definitely aint going to give you your money back. With stocks you've always got the hope that a losing stock will go back up again... or at the very least you can sell at a a loss but you still have money remaining in your pocket.

... but AAPL aint no loser... so I don't see how it could be compared to gambling at all.

jmho
We know where you are. We know where youve been. We can more or less know what youre thinking about. - Eric Schmidt
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post #68 of 79
4/17/12 at 1:29pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

Just to remind the clown who doubted what I was saying...

http://forums.appleinsider.com/showp...8&postcount=31

And AAPL is now up MORE (+29.57) than it went down yesterday (-25.10). We've listened the entire day to pundits' explanations of why AAPL is doomed, why the end is near. From the WSJ to Forbes to Time, the talking heads have been pontificating, bloviating, prognosticating, and generally farting from the mouth. The iHaters were on their knees praying to their gods that it was true.

Oops! False alarm in the AAPL collapse department.
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post #69 of 79
4/17/12 at 1:32pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

And AAPL is now up MORE (+29.57) than it went down yesterday (-25.10). We've listened the entire day to pundits' explanations of why AAPL is doomed, why the end is near. From the WSJ to Forbes to Time, the talking heads have been pontificating, bloviating, prognosticating, and generally farting from the mouth. The iHaters were on their knees praying to their gods that it was true.

Oops! False alarm in the AAPL collapse department.

Yep, you got that right.
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post #70 of 79
4/17/12 at 1:43pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

And AAPL is now up MORE (+29.57) than it went down yesterday (-25.10). We've listened the entire day to pundits' explanations of why AAPL is doomed, why the end is near. From the WSJ to Forbes to Time, the talking heads have been pontificating, bloviating, prognosticating, and generally farting from the mouth. The iHaters were on their knees praying to their gods that it was true.

Oops! False alarm in the AAPL collapse department.

Why did you use my post to underline your statement?

My post had nothing to do with the collapse of Apple, being an iHater or anything close to what you are trying to say.

I was asked when the next set of news would take place that would take AAPL significantly off its high and it was fairly obvious, even in January, that if any seemingly negative news would come out then it would be near the April quarterly announcement... and, sure enough, AAPL dropped $75 off its high with just a bit of negative news.

... and I still think it could drop again next week.

But don't forget... I'm also the person who said that anyone buying at this time will make money even if it drops to $500 over the coming months. I honestly believe that Apple will sell 50 million phones in the holiday quarter, and that, if anything, will drive the price to at least $700.
We know where you are. We know where youve been. We can more or less know what youre thinking about. - Eric Schmidt
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post #71 of 79
4/17/12 at 2:52pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonteponte View Post

I find it amazing that whenever people point to technicals and the recent price history of the AAPL stock for the absolute and definitive proof that it indeed is overvalued, they conveniently seem to forget the revenue and profit increase in the same period? As if the stock price is somehow totally disconnected from the performance of the actual company.

I bet that if you overlay that particular graph on the stock price graph you would actually come to the conclusion (like many of us) that it is actually *still* undervalued.

Does anyone know why this way of looking at Apples recent success/valuation seem to be so popular? I.e as if the market rules that apply to every other listed consumer electronics company on earth does not somehow apply to Apple?

There ya go. You got the picture. Anybody here, if you are holding AAPL long, you got to STAY THE FUCK OUT OF THE TECHNICAL TRADERS' NETS!!!!!!!

They got a million chart 'pictures' they can refer to, ( rationalize their crazy ideas with) and unless YOU are a day trader watching charts they will snare you. Don't sell stock based on their doom and gloom. How many cycles of this shit have I seen??? FIVE YEARS worth at least.. Yeah, apple can't go any higher because it's entered a reverse parabolic on the charts and 10 news stories, and I look and all of you here on AI are glum asking why did I buy any apple products? sheesh.

The technical traders were blabbing around beginning of last week that they wanted to buy into AAPL but only at around $570 or so. Well, you know what? They got algorithms they know how to fire off, and DAMN if it didn't go down to 573. That was the new resistance level. Its always fairly close to what they wanted. Then what happened? Well, the technical traders got their 'number' so...APPL shot straight back up to 607.

Don't listen to technical traders. You can't play their game. They said pretty damn near the same thing at $529, it fell and came back. You could sell into their game and never see that number again to buy back into the stock.

Look at the fundamentals, the store traffic, the products, and stay LONG if you are long. There are very few places where it's kinda obvious you could buy and sell trades. The last really obvious one was right before the Xmas quarter, when the slingshot was pulled so far back, the price was so low, and you could clearly see the momentum on the new SIRI iPhone etc=monster holiday quarter. You could have bought and sold extra then. The rest is stuff you can't catch. The technical traders will always have a faster connection than you and be controlling more of the story. Now the story is... It was all TAXES....
End of rant.
if you fight the rumors, you'll lose no matter what. What if a rumor is true and Apple fights it? or if Apple fights all rumors, but let's another rumor fly, does that mean it's the truth? Jungmark
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if you fight the rumors, you'll lose no matter what. What if a rumor is true and Apple fights it? or if Apple fights all rumors, but let's another rumor fly, does that mean it's the truth? Jungmark
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post #72 of 79
4/17/12 at 2:54pm
Quote:

If you know anything about Apple ..SNIP...

if you look at the last 5 years, you'll see a pretty fast rise in stock price since 2008 Dec. As deserved at it might have been, that could not continue forever. Then starting Dec 2011 you see this massive spike in the price. It's like the housing bubble all over again. My prediction is that AAPL will probably level off if we don't see any new products for the rest of the year and it will probably slowly level off at around 400, where it should have been right about now if it weren't for this spike you see over the past 6 months.

Horse manure.
if you fight the rumors, you'll lose no matter what. What if a rumor is true and Apple fights it? or if Apple fights all rumors, but let's another rumor fly, does that mean it's the truth? Jungmark
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if you fight the rumors, you'll lose no matter what. What if a rumor is true and Apple fights it? or if Apple fights all rumors, but let's another rumor fly, does that mean it's the truth? Jungmark
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post #73 of 79
4/17/12 at 4:42pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by palomine View Post

There ya go. You got the picture. Anybody here, if you are holding AAPL long, you got to STAY THE FUCK OUT OF THE TECHNICAL TRADERS' NETS!!!!!!!

They got a million chart 'pictures' they can refer to, ( rationalize their crazy ideas with) and unless YOU are a day trader watching charts they will snare you. Don't sell stock based on their doom and gloom. How many cycles of this shit have I seen??? FIVE YEARS worth at least.. Yeah, apple can't go any higher because it's entered a reverse parabolic on the charts and 10 news stories, and I look and all of you here on AI are glum asking why did I buy any apple products? sheesh.

The technical traders were blabbing around beginning of last week that they wanted to buy into AAPL but only at around $570 or so. Well, you know what? They got algorithms they know how to fire off, and DAMN if it didn't go down to 573. That was the new resistance level. Its always fairly close to what they wanted. Then what happened? Well, the technical traders got their 'number' so...APPL shot straight back up to 607.

Don't listen to technical traders. You can't play their game. They said pretty damn near the same thing at $529, it fell and came back. You could sell into their game and never see that number again to buy back into the stock.

Look at the fundamentals, the store traffic, the products, and stay LONG if you are long. There are very few places where it's kinda obvious you could buy and sell trades. The last really obvious one was right before the Xmas quarter, when the slingshot was pulled so far back, the price was so low, and you could clearly see the momentum on the new SIRI iPhone etc=monster holiday quarter. You could have bought and sold extra then. The rest is stuff you can't catch. The technical traders will always have a faster connection than you and be controlling more of the story. Now the story is... It was all TAXES....
End of rant.

PREACH ON BROTHAAAAA!!

Word to the wise.
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post #74 of 79
4/18/12 at 8:51am
Quote:
Originally Posted by palomine View Post

There ya go. You got the picture. Anybody here, if you are holding AAPL long, you got to STAY THE FUCK OUT OF THE TECHNICAL TRADERS' NETS!!!!!!!

They got a million chart 'pictures' they can refer to, ( rationalize their crazy ideas with) and unless YOU are a day trader watching charts they will snare you. Don't sell stock based on their doom and gloom. How many cycles of this shit have I seen??? FIVE YEARS worth at least.. Yeah, apple can't go any higher because it's entered a reverse parabolic on the charts and 10 news stories, and I look and all of you here on AI are glum asking why did I buy any apple products? sheesh.

The technical traders were blabbing around beginning of last week that they wanted to buy into AAPL but only at around $570 or so. Well, you know what? They got algorithms they know how to fire off, and DAMN if it didn't go down to 573. That was the new resistance level. Its always fairly close to what they wanted. Then what happened? Well, the technical traders got their 'number' so...APPL shot straight back up to 607.

Don't listen to technical traders. You can't play their game. They said pretty damn near the same thing at $529, it fell and came back. You could sell into their game and never see that number again to buy back into the stock.

Look at the fundamentals, the store traffic, the products, and stay LONG if you are long. There are very few places where it's kinda obvious you could buy and sell trades. The last really obvious one was right before the Xmas quarter, when the slingshot was pulled so far back, the price was so low, and you could clearly see the momentum on the new SIRI iPhone etc=monster holiday quarter. You could have bought and sold extra then. The rest is stuff you can't catch. The technical traders will always have a faster connection than you and be controlling more of the story. Now the story is... It was all TAXES....
End of rant.

If you say so...
We know where you are. We know where youve been. We can more or less know what youre thinking about. - Eric Schmidt
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post #75 of 79
4/18/12 at 8:55am
As an investor you'll find this article on Mark Gorton a worthy read:

"Gorton is a high-frequency trader. His company, Tower Research Capital LLC, with its 275-person global staff of engineers and computer science and physics majors, is part of an industry that today is responsible for more than half of all stock trading in the United States, according to the Tabb Group, a financial markets research and strategic advisory firm. Gorton's is an industry under scrutiny. "
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...n_1429935.html

melior diabolus quem scies

"No theatrics and no more personal attacks, just stick to the logic and tell me why I don't have any argument ~ Jragosta/2012

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melior diabolus quem scies

"No theatrics and no more personal attacks, just stick to the logic and tell me why I don't have any argument ~ Jragosta/2012

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post #76 of 79
4/18/12 at 9:09am
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

If you say so...

I know that you happen to be among the few who can trade back and forth in choppy waters,, living on an island and all. I did read your previous analysis, it makes sense even to me. I just cannot trade that way ( don't know how) so my blunt strategy is to stay long as long as it makes sense. I just hate seeing the other longs in here get stampeded out of their holdings. BTW, thanks for your analysis. I may actually learn something.
if you fight the rumors, you'll lose no matter what. What if a rumor is true and Apple fights it? or if Apple fights all rumors, but let's another rumor fly, does that mean it's the truth? Jungmark
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if you fight the rumors, you'll lose no matter what. What if a rumor is true and Apple fights it? or if Apple fights all rumors, but let's another rumor fly, does that mean it's the truth? Jungmark
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post #77 of 79
4/18/12 at 9:25am
Quote:
Originally Posted by palomine View Post

I know that you happen to be among the few who can trade back and forth in choppy waters,, living on an island and all. I did read your previous analysis, it makes sense even to me. I just cannot trade that way ( don't know how) so my blunt strategy is to stay long as long as it makes sense. I just hate seeing the other longs in here get stampeded out of their holdings. BTW, thanks for your analysis. I may actually learn something.

You are right... the traders are going to have their day with AAPL over the next few months and it will make a few longs question their holdings. I don't have the stomach for holding after I've made a few bucks. The markets are just too volatile right now.

At the end of the day, though, imho AAPL will rise into the $700 to $750 range... but maybe not until the next holiday quarter is announced.

I don't have the software capabilities that the big traders have and for that reason I am out of AAPL for a while. I believe it will eventually sink back to the low 500s before it heads higher, even if it goes higher over the next month or so (but I don't think it will). If I get knocked out of the game then so be it... even though I didn't catch the absolute high I've still got a little bit to go before that happens... regardless, I'll stay out.
We know where you are. We know where youve been. We can more or less know what youre thinking about. - Eric Schmidt
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We know where you are. We know where youve been. We can more or less know what youre thinking about. - Eric Schmidt
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post #78 of 79
4/18/12 at 12:13pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

You are right... the traders are going to have their day with AAPL over the next few months and it will make a few longs question their holdings. I don't have the stomach for holding after I've made a few bucks. The markets are just too volatile right now.

At the end of the day, though, imho AAPL will rise into the $700 to $750 range... but maybe not until the next holiday quarter is announced.

I don't have the software capabilities that the big traders have and for that reason I am out of AAPL for a while. I believe it will eventually sink back to the low 500s before it heads higher, even if it goes higher over the next month or so (but I don't think it will). If I get knocked out of the game then so be it... even though I didn't catch the absolute high I've still got a little bit to go before that happens... regardless, I'll stay out.

Just out of curiosity, why not options? Your logic would justify selling covered calls and holding on to your position. (I don't agree with your logic, but if there is an earnings disappointment I can imagine how it would be possible.)
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post #79 of 79
4/18/12 at 12:26pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

Just out of curiosity, why not options? Your logic would justify selling covered calls and holding on to your position. (I don't agree with your logic, but if there is an earnings disappointment I can imagine how it would be possible.)

on edit: Sorry... you're right... in a way.

The truth of the matter. I'm feeling very jittery about the entire market. I just want out.

BTW - why would I sell a covered call if I thought that AAPL was going to head down closer to $500? ... and then at the same time, the chance that the stock could go to over $700 as GS is predicting?

Too much volatility... too many options at this point.... imho


Edited by island hermit - 4/21/12 at 6:15am
We know where you are. We know where youve been. We can more or less know what youre thinking about. - Eric Schmidt
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We know where you are. We know where youve been. We can more or less know what youre thinking about. - Eric Schmidt
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