Originally Posted by island hermit
Okay... that's interesting. I'll give you that. I just keep feeling that there is more to the decline than just the sale of tablets. I think tablets are close but not quite there yet for outright adoption by businesses... and I have to say that I'm not quite sure who is going to get there first... Apple or Microsoft. If Microsoft happens to deliver on all of their promises then it could become an overnight success. It has to deliver first, though, so it's a bit of a stretch at the moment... being that Microsoft has seldom got it right the first time, which is what the iPad did right out of the gate. Regardless... when the tablet hits more of the laptop's features then you can expect to see sales in the 40-50+ million range per quarter (across all manufacturers).
I agree with you when it comes to general use by businesses for employees who use a multitude of applications both locally and on the network: Microsoft Office plus whatever proprietary accounting or other apps a particular company uses. No one is going to be very efficient trying to use those kinds of apps on an iPad.
But for employees who do one thing: order takers, inventory, certain medical apps, etc., the iPad is a great device and many businesses are adopting it for those kinds of purposes.
We are getting spoiled by Apple's ridiculously high numbers. They're selling these devices like they're cans of soup! One thing everybody forgets is that Apple has changed the adoption rate of new devices to levels unheard of with any other consumer electronic device. And as such, if the numbers don't grow each quarter by some ridiculous rate, people claim doom.
I think I've probably posted this several times before, but this is the adoption time to 1 million units BA (before Apple). All numbers come from Greystone Communications, Yankee Group except for the iPad number. Apple now does in a weekend what it used to take an industry (never mind a single company) months or years to accomplish.
# of months to 1 million units
iPad: 28 days (14 months=25 million units)
DVD: 21 months
XM Satellite radio: 23 months
CD players: 28 months
MP3 players: 28 months
Radio: 39 months
TV: 40 months (although this # doesn't make sense to me. I doubt there were 1 million TVs in use by November of 1945)
DVR: 53 months
VCR: 58 months
Online Subscriber Services: 114 months
Cable/Satellite TV: 144 months