Apple profits surge 94% on sales of 35.1M iPhones, 11.8M iPads - Page 2

 

 

I agree it is very weird to use on an iPad.   That seems rather a strange decision for a blog that is aimed at Apple ....  I'd have suggested making it super iPad friendly!  Then I was never asked.  :)

June quarter (Q3FY12) prediction:

 

$12.35 EPS on $40.1B revenue

 

 

 

The big run-up in Apple began in January, after the earnings announcement in January. It had nothing to do with the holiday quarter guidance, because when the big run-up began the holiday quarter earnings had already been announced.  There were many factors that caused the big run-up during the mid-Jan to mid-April period.  Analysts significantly increasing their estimates, introduction of the retina-display new iPad,and realization by institutional investors that Apple was significantly undervalued were some of the factors.  Not the guidance.  Nobody believes Apple's guidance because it is always too conservative.

 

Doesn't look like you know what you are talking about.

 

 

It's the time of year.

 

I expect to see 18+ million sold during the holiday quarter but no more than 14 million for the other two quarters. iPads, unlike iPhones, are not a must have device... yet (not that you "must have" and iPhone... but I definitely need my iPhone much more than I need my iPad).

 

We'll see...

 

 

Bzzzzzzzz... you lose. The run-up started on November 28th. Guidance is [one of the reasons] that causes the big houses to buy or sell.

 

Try again...

 

 

But, I ...... well, whatever......

 

 

If you think that's the case, why are you holding? Shouldn't you be buying puts?

 

 

I disagree. iPads are a disruptor device and everybody's buying them instead of other devices like laptops and netbooks.

 

 

You can find all the option prices, for both calls and puts, here: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=AAPL&m=2012-04

 

Note tat each contract is for 100 options (thus, for example, one May '12 call contract with an exercise price of $570 would have cost him ~$2,200, etc.).

 

 

First of all, I'm very positive about Apple's position going forward. They are one of very few technology companies well-suited for another bubble burst, and if in the unlikely event they drop to something approaching the lows experienced at the beginning of the recession/depression I will simply load up like there's no tomorrow. I do not get "fancy" with any of my stock trades. It's all "buy" or "sell" with me. That's all.

 

 

Oh... I wouldn't say they are a disruptor device. The iPhone is a disruptor device... manufacturers who were currently making phones when the iPhone was introduced had the snot kicked out of them, disrupting the industry totally. The iPad didn't have much to fight until after it was introduced other than netbooks... and I'm not so sure that laptops have been disrupted... if anything, the Air has increased laptop sales and increased competition, and is the real disruptor in that space imho.

 

 

Sorry, chump.  Guidance may be important when it comes to other companies.  Not Apple.  Even with low guidance, Apple is trading up over 40 points in after-market trading.  The "big houses" are selling, or buying?  It is up 40 points because the "big houses" are ignoring Apple's always ridiculously conservative guidance.

 

You must be short.  I feel sorry for you.  You gotta learn how this game is played.

 

 

Umm.... $1000? Care to explain how you arrived at it?

 

You do know that each 'contract' is for 100 options right?

 

 

Getting fancy is very fashionable these days... I tend to be like you, buy and sell... although options can be fun.

 

 

I just came across this today:

 

The world’s two biggest laptop assemblers are seeking shelter in the cloud as Apple Inc. (AAPL) (AAPL)’s iPad threatens the future of personal computers.

 

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-04-24/ipad-onslaught-sends-taiwanese-laptop-makers-to-the-cloud

 

 

I think you may be having some trouble figuring out the general tongue-in-cheeknesss of IS's posts.....

 

 

I guess you have no explanation as to why AAPL went down to 362 in November then... or why it began to rise before the actual numbers came out in January... after dismal sales of the iPhone were announced in October. Geez... ignoring the guidance I would have just sold all of my Apple stock in October.

 

 

More like ignorance....

 

 

It's not really tongue in cheek this time. I really do feel that AAPL will go lower over the next few months even it runs up a bit from here. Apple is on a tear but there is no way they're going to let this thing run too high before the July and October numbers are announced.

 

I feel that after the 6th gen iPhone is announced then we will see AAPL go into the 700s... I really don't think before that.

 

If they do run this thing into the 700s prior to that on lower and lower guidance then prepare for a real slide just before the 6th gen announcement.

 

jmho

 

 

nanny nanny poo poo...

 

 

Okay... that's interesting. I'll give you that. I just keep feeling that there is more to the decline than just the sale of tablets. I think tablets are close but not quite there yet for outright adoption by businesses... and I have to say that I'm not quite sure who is going to get there first... Apple or Microsoft. If Microsoft happens to deliver on all of their promises then it could become an overnight success. It has to deliver first, though, so it's a bit of a stretch at the moment... being that Microsoft has seldom got it right the first time, which is what the iPad did right out of the gate. Regardless... when the tablet hits more of the laptop's features then you can expect to see sales in the 40-50+ million range per quarter (across all manufacturers).

 

jmho

 

 

The cost is this:

 

 

1 x 550 april put = 1473

2 x 570 may calls = 2068 each

1 x 550 august call = 5575

1 x 550 october call = 6900

1 x 550 jan2013 call = 7311

 

but keep in mind I am down 20k from when Apple was at 640. My hope is to get back that 20k before 640, we will see what happen tomorrow when the options prices with the huge volatility drop are in.   It may not be as good has it looks.  But my options are going to be in the money so it helps.

 

The put is a total lost but I was too nervous I had to buy some protection for my longs.

 

 

Stop playing contrarian man. The best value in the history of the stock market is right in your face. Get on board and shaddap! 

:D

I have a feeling the low guidance on iPhones might dampen enthusiasm. One analyst pointed out that if Apple were not guiding low on iPads ( they see a sequential increase ) or Macs (ditto), the drop in revenue would mean ten million fewer iPhone sales. In fact Apple agreed and gave 5 reasons why, unlike last year, they expect significant falls this June quarter. Last year they were supply constrained and hadn't rolled out to all carriers.

Ergo, I would imagine that the stock will stay around the $600 level and could even fall if Apples guidance turns out to be true, a buying opportunity prior to the iPhone 5 launch, and the positioning of the 3GS as a real low cost phone.

investors chomp at the bit to see any sequential market share decline as the start of the collapse of Apples share of the market - based on nonsense comparisons with windows and Mac.

So I welcome the inevitable, so I can get in.

 

 

Contrarian? I guess you haven't been reading my comments.

 

 

I was surprised that iPods are selling as well as they are in this day and age. Still twice as many iPods as Macs. Not that I give a rat's backside.

 

That iPhones are outselling iPads by such a large margin also surprised me. I was thinking iPads were being adopted by enterprise and education in larger quantities than iPhones. Not that it really matters, I'm only as good a guesser as the average analyst.

 

 

In the U.S. market, the 3GS is free with AT&T and unavailable to other telcos. I'd expect the iPhone 4 will slide down and become free AND available through more telcos... especially Verizon.

If you want investment advice... you are not deep enough in the money on those calls. The put didn't do anything for you, and you took far too much risk for the potential gain on all the calls. It might have turned out well this time around (as in you made a profit), but you didn't make enough profit to offset the risk you took. You bought too much time value of money and not nearly enough room for gain.

Spending the same amount of money, I would have done (3) July 525's plus (1) Jan13 570's for roughly the same upside potential. For dramatically lower risk, assuming you didn't have any other holdings, a single January 2014 $350 wouldn't have been a bad choice.

 

 

I like guessing. It doesn't really matter but it's fun imho. (for instance... I predicted 13 million iPads for the last quarter and I was high (I was also wrong abut my prediction )

 

Nobody knows what the future holds.

 

 

Apple's numbers. especially the margins, should be totally impossible... yet there they are! In a world where some electronic hardware companies are losing money, Apple is doing better then ever. The fact they are out-performing Microsoft is even more astounding. I pray that Steve Ballmer stays in good health and remains at the MS helm until he completely turns that ocean liner into a submarine.

 

 

There is a reason I didn't go in july, it won't make it to next earnings. So to have time to recover in case of a miss, august is better and october insure iPhone 5 hype. I don't like july options at all.  The may calls are a gamble I know, they will still be 2 times there cost tomorrow.  In case of a miss I would had use the put money and buy a june call after the correction.  I still have plenty of cash to add more leaps but I would like to avoid that.  I never play options with more than 10% of the portfolio but if I see apple go extremely undervalue I can temporally go to 20% like I did in january.

 

 

That's not really true. Apple is not a hardware company. They are a software company that builds the hardware to run it on. It's a totally different mindset, so the results are different too.

 

 

if those numbers and dats are correct then serious wow. 

 

 

I agree with you when it comes to general use by businesses for employees who use a multitude of applications both locally and on the network:   Microsoft Office plus whatever proprietary accounting or other apps a particular company uses.    No one is going to be very efficient trying to use those kinds of apps on an iPad.   

 

But for employees who do one thing:   order takers, inventory, certain medical apps, etc., the iPad is a great device and many businesses are adopting it for those kinds of purposes.

 

We are getting spoiled by Apple's ridiculously high numbers.    They're selling these devices like they're cans of soup!     One thing everybody forgets is that Apple has changed the adoption rate of new devices to levels unheard of with any other consumer electronic device.   And as such, if the numbers don't grow each quarter by some ridiculous rate, people claim doom.   

 

I think I've probably posted this several times before, but this is the adoption time to 1 million units BA (before Apple).   All numbers come from Greystone Communications, Yankee Group except for the iPad number.  Apple now does in a weekend what it used to take an industry (never mind a single company) months or years to accomplish.

 

# of months to 1 million units

iPad: 28 days  (14 months=25 million units)

DVD: 21 months

XM Satellite radio: 23 months

CD players: 28 months

MP3 players: 28 months

Radio: 39 months

TV: 40 months (although this # doesn't make sense to me.   I doubt there were 1 million TVs in use by November of 1945)

DVR: 53 months

VCR: 58 months

Online Subscriber Services: 114 months

Cable/Satellite TV: 144 months

 

 

 

 

I hadn't even noticed a change until you mentioned it.

 

 

Pay attention, man!

 

Note to everyone:  I used to come here to read and post for at least an hour or two every day... Now I can't stand coming here. I have to limit my time to 20 to 30 minutes at a time maximum. I really hate the site changes.

Edited by SpamSandwich - 4/24/12 at 7:47pm

 

 

True!

 

But if they had the $2,810,000 to buy those shares in the first place... clearly they are doing something that makes them that kind of money all the time.

 

Still though... $200,000 in a short time is nothing to sneeze at!

 

 

Absolutely spot on. I am the same way.

 

A pathetic set of design changes. It seriously sets the site back. 

 

Ah well, as with most good things, one should have expected that it was too good to last.....

 

 

You can't always believe everything you read on the internet.... ;-)

 

 

Leverage is a beautiful thing....