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The DOA Tablet

post #1 of 4
4/25/12 at 6:23am
Thread Starter 

Windows 8 tablets are DOA. The question isn't whether they will be good tablets with a decent OS, it's always going to be "why should I buy this over an iPad". And the answer to that question, as we've seen from every Android tablet is that there's no good reason. The only tablet that has managed to get traction in the market other than the iPad is the Kindle Fire, and that's because Amazon went after a cheaper segment of the market while covering a decent set of consumption use cases.

 

Sure, Windows tablet will sell some. There will be vertical segments or some enterprises that have IT departments forcing crap down users' throats, but in the mass consumer market it's going to be challenged to claw out 5% share. And I'm being very generous with that value.

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post #2 of 4
4/25/12 at 11:37am

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by focher View Post

Windows 8 tablets are DOA. The question isn't whether they will be good tablets with a decent OS, it's always going to be "why should I buy this over an iPad". And the answer to that question, as we've seen from every Android tablet is that there's no good reason. The only tablet that has managed to get traction in the market other than the iPad is the Kindle Fire, and that's because Amazon went after a cheaper segment of the market while covering a decent set of consumption use cases.

 

Sure, Windows tablet will sell some. There will be vertical segments or some enterprises that have IT departments forcing crap down users' throats, but in the mass consumer market it's going to be challenged to claw out 5% share. And I'm being very generous with that value.

 

Desktop integration and seamless transitions.

If Microsoft succeeds in doing what they're trying to do they will enable seamless flow between the desktop and tablet. Microsoft has always held sway over the business market for it's ease of centralized management compared to it's *nix brethren. If Apple can't manage to nit things together with iOS and OSX and Microsoft can with a unified Windows 8 platform then they will win (long term).

 

Consumers on the other hand will choose what makes their life easiest and is essentially the cheapest (TCO) solution. That right now is Windows desktop running iTunes syncing to an Apple mobile device. If Microsoft can make it cheaper, easier and more reliable to do than Apple then Microsoft will win the consumer market as well. This will be a much greater challenge as the $499 price point for the iPad is pretty damn cheap and the iPhone (with iOS) is really the best mobile platform. That can change easily if Microsoft can woo popular developers as well as create main stream software for use with the entire platform (remember Microsoft is a software company). They already have a stellar phone manufacturer (Nokia) in their pocket with an established loyal consumer base (Europe).

2011 13" Core i5 Macbook Pro | Intel 520 SSD | 8GB Corsair DDR3 1333 | OSX 10.7
iPhone 4S - AT&T

iPad 3 Wi-Fi

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2011 13" Core i5 Macbook Pro | Intel 520 SSD | 8GB Corsair DDR3 1333 | OSX 10.7
iPhone 4S - AT&T

iPad 3 Wi-Fi

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post #3 of 4
4/26/12 at 9:03am
Thread Starter 

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by AHrubik View Post

Desktop integration and seamless transitions.

 

They already have a stellar phone manufacturer (Nokia) in their pocket with an established loyal consumer base (Europe).

 

The first thing is based on an entirely false premise - that the desktop matters. When I say that it doesn't matter, I don't mean it's going away. It's just becoming increasingly niche, and it's definitely not determining tablet sales. The ability to have access to your data, regardless of device or location, is not being managed through desktop integration. Microsoft's dominance on the desktop is getting it NOTHING on the smartphone and tablet side.

 

Bringing up Nokia is kind of a joke, right? Nokia is a dead company. They are RIM from 2-3 years ago. Dead man walking. They just don't know it. Their handset sales are in free fall, even in Europe. Psion had a great European dominance too. Ever heard of them? No? Exactly.

 

The fact is that, while Microsoft deserves praise for innovating on the smartphone/tablet OS user interface it isn't getting them any market penetration. It will survive because Microsoft is willing to dump billions into a market which it wants, even when it cannot get it (MSN and Bing are two prominent examples). No one is saying Microsoft is dying. They will grow and be very profitable. They just aren't going to do it in the consumer space, and that's where the growth and revenue exist. And the consumer space is increasingly dictating the enterprise space in the mobile arena.The day is already here when IT departments won't decide which devices employees use.

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post #4 of 4
4/26/12 at 9:32am
What it comes down to, I think, is that consumers couldn't care less about Windows tablets prior to the iPad. I sincerely doubt that consumers will be interested in Windows tablets simply because the iPad rocks.
"You can converge a toaster and a refrigerator but, ya know, those things are probably not going to be pleasing to the user."
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"You can converge a toaster and a refrigerator but, ya know, those things are probably not going to be pleasing to the user."
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