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Exhibits in Oracle case show Google expected Android to take 33% of iPad market in 2011

post #1 of 56
Thread Starter 
In July 2010, Google executives expected their upcoming Android 3.0 Honeycomb release to immediately result in a takeover of a third of the iPad market, according to an internal presentation outed during Oracle's infringement case against the search giant.

The presentation, as detailed in slides published by The Verge, indicated that Google expected its partners to sell 10 million Honeycomb tablets by the end of 2011.

Instead, Honeycomb tablets flopped right out of the gate and never recovered, not only dashing Google's plans for taking over the tablet market that Apple had created the previous year, but also severely delaying the development of Android on smartphones.

Big tablet plans for 2010

Google's presentation slide also indicates that it only expected half a million Android tablets to sell in 2010. The company asked its partners not to ship devices using the older Android 2.2 Froyo, but Samsung and a variety of others did anyway.

Against Google's advice, Samsung claimed to have shipped two million Galaxy Tabs by the end of 2010, but later admitted that these were really just pushed into the channel and actually sold poorly to consumers.

Apple sold 14.8 million iPads by the end of 2010, more than Morgan Stanley had predicted for the entire global market.



Bigger tablet plans for 2011

After launching Honeycomb however, Google hoped to see 10 million tablets sell in 2011 and 20 million in 2012. Google compared its sales figures against the tablet shipments predicted by Morgan Stanley, coming up with and implied 33 percent share in tablets for Android.

Due to a combination of blunders by both Google and its hardware producers, Honeycomb tablets not only failed to attract an audience but were poorly reviewed on the basis of high prices, unfinished software and hardware that didn't function as advertised.

At the end of Apple's second year of iPad sales, the company had sold 67 million units, 25 million more than Morgan Stanley had anticipated for the entire global market.

Google's Honeycomb launch partner Motorola failed to ship more than a couple hundred thousand each quarter, and other Android tablets fared even worse. The most popular Android-based tablets were sold by Amazon and Barnes & Noble, but those devices used non-standard builds of the old Android 2.x release that Google didn't want hardware makers using for tablet products.

Android ads outperformed by Apple

Also revealed in the 2010 documents is the fact that Android was generating less than half of the advertising revenue for Google compared to Apple's iOS. Google noted that Android's advertising run rate was projected to reach $120 million annually, compared to the $281 million that it was earning from Apple's mobile platform.



Other figures from the Oracle trial have underlined the fact that Google has consistently earned far more from Apple's iOS than it has from its own Android platform. The company testified that across four years from 2008-2011, it earned less than $550 million from Android, less than half as much as it earned from Apple in a single year.
post #2 of 56

Google expected Android to take 33% of iPad market in 2010

 

 

Google didn't consult the right 'oracle' for that prediction!  LOL

 

Apple need to close Google ad revenues from iOS.

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post #3 of 56

Hard to take this all in if you're an Android cultist. You've been told, and firmly believe, that Android is destroying iOS and it's only a matter of time before the iDevices disappear in an orgy of Android brilliance. 850,000 activations per day will do the trick any day now. Seems Google fell for its own bullshit predictions.

post #4 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

Hard to take this all in if you're an Android cultist. You've been told, and firmly believe, that Android is destroying iOS and it's only a matter of time before the iDevices disappear in an orgy of Android brilliance. 850,000 activations per day will do the trick any day now. Seems Google fell for its own bullshit predictions.


I almost wonder if Google aren't buying most of the Android crap themselves. That might explain why iOS is so far ahead in actual usage on the Internet. Maybe most of the Android junk in a basement at Google.
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post #5 of 56

"After launching Honeycomb however, Google hoped to see 10 million tablets sell in 2011 and 20 million in 2012."

 

I corrected the above sentence for you:

After launching Honeycomb however, Google hoped to see 10 tablets sell in 2011 and 20 in 2012.

post #6 of 56

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Google expected Android to take 33% of iPad market in 2010

 

 

Google didn't consult the right 'oracle' for that prediction!  LOL

 

Apple need to close Google ad revenues from iOS.

 

lol.gif

post #7 of 56

I'm more convinced then ever that the Android effort is in the verge of collapse.   Its under assault from all angles, and its making Google $0.  And that is before resolution of the Oracle lawsuit

 

The pretenders are always eventually found out.  It's a law of nature  

 

Last, how could any consumer ever trust Samsung? 

 

 

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post #8 of 56

no people are buying the phone but not for the internet...for door stops..they work great i hear.

 

TC

post #9 of 56

Just shows how stupid Google really is, even though they hire a lot of really bright people. iOS generates twice as much ad revenue for them in ONE year as they earned with Android in FOUR YEARS!!! If they hadn't launched Android, Apple would have even significantly more iPhone sales which in fact would have generated EXPONENTIALLY more revenue for Google. Maybe they haven't hired enough math wiz's.

post #10 of 56

so their own platform hurt the potential revenue...ironic

post #11 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Oak View Post

I'm more convinced then ever that the Android effort is in the verge of collapse.   Its under assault from all angles, and its making Google $0.  And that is before resolution of the Oracle lawsuit

 

The pretenders are always eventually found out.  It's a law of nature  

 

Last, how could any consumer ever trust Samsung? 

 

 


It may become a bigger loser once the Oracle suit is done. Funny how some call Apple selling more (many,many more) tablets in a quarter than all of Android will sell in a year a disappointment.
post #12 of 56

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Oak View Post

I'm more convinced then ever that the Android effort is in the verge of collapse.   Its under assault from all angles, and its making Google $0.  And that is before resolution of the Oracle lawsuit

 

The pretenders are always eventually found out.  It's a law of nature  

 

Last, how could any consumer ever trust Samsung? 

 

 

 

I don't understand American consumers purchasing Samesung products either.  Many of the Android proponents appear to be from the United States but they support products that are designed and manufactured elsewhere yet complain Apple isn't manufacturing devices in the United States.  Apple is one of very few success stories in the American economy yet many declare Apple's imminent demise and seem quite desirous of Apple's failure.

 

post #13 of 56

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Oak View Post

 

Last, how could any consumer ever trust Samsung? 

 

 

 

Is that the same Samsung which manufactures the CPU and RAM inside iPhones?

post #14 of 56

Where the heck do you come up with 33% for 2010???  It's well documented that Apple had a 90% market share of worldwide Tablet revenue in 2010.  That leaves 10% to the rest of the Tablet wannabes!  I could care less about the % of units sold of Android tablets compared to Apple iPads, it's all about Revenue, Revenue, Revenue!  Apple is still king and will be for the forseeable future and thats why I will keep my Apple shares and never consider Google stock.

 

So Google expects to sell 10 million Android tablets in 2012, LMAO!  The latest 2012 worldwide tablet shipment projections range from 87 to 106 million units so androids market share in units will be around 10% according to this, while Apples worldwide tablet  market share projected average is 61% of total units or Approx 61 million iPads.  You can do the math yourself but Apple will by far exceed all Android based revenues!

post #15 of 56

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Euphonious View Post

 

 

Is that the same Samsung which manufactures the CPU and RAM inside iPhones?

 

Yes, the same Samsung who ripped off their largest customer.

post #16 of 56
I wonder how long developers will continue to develop for android now that all indications from three major US phone companies suggest that the iPhone is out selling all Android phones combined. Didn't Eric Schmidt predict that by now developers would be prioritizing android? I guess US developers need to learn Chinese and hope Apple doesn't take over China also.

Android tablets are a joke. How can they succeed if even android phones are failing.

I wonder how long before the android lunitics disappear from AI the way the Microsoft lunitics disappeared a few years ago.
post #17 of 56
Quote:
Originally Posted by Euphonious View Post

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Oak View Post

 

Last, how could any consumer ever trust Samsung? 

 

 

 

Is that the same Samsung which manufactures the CPU and RAM inside iPhones?


No, Samsung's mobile division, which does not manufacture parts for Apple, and regularly screws its own customers. I mean, I'm guessing that "Last, how could any consumer ever trust Samsung?" was referencing how Samsung's customers don't get updates to their phones.
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post #18 of 56

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Euphonious View Post

 

 

Is that the same Samsung which manufactures the CPU and RAM inside iPhones?

 

No, the manufacturer of the CPU and RAM inside iPhones is a whole different Samsung company. It's easy to confuse the two.

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post #19 of 56

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Icelus View Post

I wonder how long developers will continue to develop for android now that all indications from three major US phone companies suggest that the iPhone is out selling all Android phones combined. Didn't Eric Schmidt predict that by now developers would be prioritizing android? I guess US developers need to learn Chinese and hope Apple doesn't take over China also.
Android tablets are a joke. How can they succeed if even android phones are failing.
I wonder how long before the android lunitics disappear from AI the way the Microsoft lunitics disappeared a few years ago.

 

The Microsoft lunatics will soon rise from their tombs and lurch about the landscape in search of iDevice user's brains. To save yourself just throw down a WinMo8 spec book and they will attack each other over it, thinking that it has any relevance in today's world. :)

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post #20 of 56

Lol, Morgan Stanley is Katy Huberty, one of the worst Apple analysts and definitely not a star-rated ANAL-yst according to Starmine.

 

The fact that Apple outsold Morgan Stanley's projected numbers means almost nothing.

 

However, the fact that Apple did it two years in a row pretty much verifies how bad the MS predictions really are.

 

Katy Huberty's predictions about Apple will likely be WRONG.

 


Edited by cvaldes1831 - 4/25/12 at 8:58pm
post #21 of 56

And Google also show the original Android phone in 2006

Screen Shot 2012-04-26 at 11.41.37 AM.jpg

 

Google has no vision and no class? Who would have thought. lol.gif

 

btw, does this forum work on Safari? I can't post on both my Mac and iPad. (Oh, this new forum is a nightmare to post. It's not working correctly even with Firefox.)


Edited by matrix07 - 4/25/12 at 11:14pm
post #22 of 56
No problems with Posting using my iPad so far. As can bee seen.
post #23 of 56

Strange. I might try it again tonight. Couldn't post, or even "like" post for a couple of nights.

post #24 of 56

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

At the end of Apple's second year of iPad sales, the company had sold 67 million units, 25 million more than Morgan Stanley had anticipated for the entire global market.

You are comparing iPad sales from Q2/2010 to Q1/2012 with the prediction of 2010 + 2011. The correct sales numbers are 14.8 million + 40.5 million.

So Apple sold 13.3 million more than Morgan Stanley had predicted.

 

BTW Google really expected Android customers to replace their Android phones in 2012 & 2013 by 100% with a new Android phone. lol.gif

post #25 of 56
What would Android's share of the phone market be had Apple origionally released iPhone on AT&T, Verizon and Spint?
post #26 of 56

This trial has really made android and Google look terrible.

 

Apple should starve Google for biting the hand that feeds. Start with dumping google maps.

post #27 of 56

overdue - I like google maps but jeaz why doesn't it have a scale on the iPhone?

post #28 of 56
The original google phone looks so vulgar, and a cheap blackberry ripoff
post #29 of 56

It's funny that iOS seems to be directly funding Android. If Apple could figure out a way to cut off the profits Google is getting from iOS then Android would probably disappear. It's weird, but I actually find myself rooting for Windows Phone to succeed because the fandroids are so annoying. Microsoft still can't get their act together though. The Nokia Lumia 900 was supposed to be a huge hit for Windows Phone and it's barely made a dent.

post #30 of 56

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by j1h15233 View Post

It's funny that iOS seems to be directly funding Android. If Apple could figure out a way to cut off the profits Google is getting from iOS then Android would probably disappear. It's weird, but I actually find myself rooting for Windows Phone to succeed because the fandroids are so annoying. Microsoft still can't get their act together though. The Nokia Lumia 900 was supposed to be a huge hit for Windows Phone and it's barely made a dent.

 

What do you think iAds are all about? Apple isn't cutting Google's profits off entirely, but they're sure taking a bite out of them.

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post #31 of 56

It is interesting that Apple have already sold more iPads in the first quarter than Google had predicted all Android tablets for the whole 2012 year.

post #32 of 56

I wish Apple would(could?) just ban all ad networks from iOS other than iAds.

post #33 of 56
Apple needs to keep Google around to avoid becoming at target of anti monopoly laws.

It is becoming more and more obvious that Apple has won. Simply everyone you see has an iPhone. Google will still be struggling with a Siri competitor when Apple releases the next hot new thing.

Maybe the android lunatics have already disappeared, they seem terribly quiet.
post #34 of 56

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by j1h15233 View Post

It's funny that iOS seems to be directly funding Android. If Apple could figure out a way to cut off the profits Google is getting from iOS then Android would probably disappear. It's weird, but I actually find myself rooting for Windows Phone to succeed because the fandroids are so annoying. Microsoft still can't get their act together though. The Nokia Lumia 900 was supposed to be a huge hit for Windows Phone and it's barely made a dent.

 

Apple has figured out a way to cut Google's ad profits, Siri.  She completely bypasses all the advertised ads you would typically see when doing "a normal" search from www.google.com.

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post

btw, does this forum work on Safari? I can't post on both my Mac and iPad. (Oh, this new forum is a nightmare to post. It's not working correctly even with Firefox.)

 

My results have been flakey at best.  This new forum design has been such a step backwards it should be embarrassing.  It is obvious no one thought to see what the forums look like on an iPhone.  I use to visit the site often when standing in line, waiting for some one, etc. but now I don't bother.  It's too much of a hassle to zoom and pan constantly.  It might work great on an iPad but sucks on an iPhone.

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post #35 of 56

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by aderutter View Post

I wish Apple would(could?) just ban all ad networks from iOS other than iAds.

 

Not a chance. Too many developers make their money on ads and not all of them would switch to iAds.


Apple can make iAds more competitive - which they're doing. They can use Siri to bypass Google on non-application stuff. But I can't see any way they'd simply cut off third party ads entirely.

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post #36 of 56

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by razorpit View Post

My results have been flakey at best.  This new forum design has been such a step backwards it should be embarrassing.  It is obvious no one thought to see what the forums look like on an iPhone.  I use to visit the site often when standing in line, waiting for some one, etc. but now I don't bother.  It's too much of a hassle to zoom and pan constantly.  It might work great on an iPad but sucks on an iPhone.

 

AI forums were no better on an iPhone before the switch. Where the iPhone version of the main AI site is perfectly fine, once you clicked on the "comments" button in an article to go to the forums, everything became microscopic. It was like that before and it's like that now. I'm note sure what you're referring to.


Edited by Rob55 - 4/26/12 at 8:26am
post #37 of 56

This nicely illustrates the necessity for marketing and business folks to be at least as expert in their fields as the engineers they hire are in theirs. Google is clearly suffering from very weak management. Their engineering is likely to be good enough though perhaps not at the level of Apple. 

 

Like Steve Jobs has been quoted as saying more or less, if you want to be the best, you have to hire the best. 

post #38 of 56

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by waldobushman View Post

This nicely illustrates the necessity for marketing and business folks to be at least as expert in their fields as the engineers they hire are in theirs. Google is clearly suffering from very weak management. Their engineering is likely to be good enough though perhaps not at the level of Apple. 

 

Like Steve Jobs has been quoted as saying more or less, if you want to be the best, you have to hire the best. 

 

Steve also directs the responsibility of a company's success to the CEO, who must have vision, and a board that do more than just try to preserve the status quo.

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post #39 of 56

 

Gartner: Global Tablet PC Sales to Double to 119 M. Units This Year

2012/04/26
Taipei, April 26, 2012 (CENS)--Global sales of tablet PCs are estimated to double to 119 million units this year from 60 million units sold last year, with Apple Inc. to command a dominant share of 61.4%, according to Gartner Inc., a British global PC market researcher. 

Gartner’s latest report indicates that Apple is expected to sell around 73 million units of iPad worldwide this year, more than Hewlett-Packard Co.’s PCs in sales volume. The market researcher also projects optimistically that global sales of tablet PCs will surge to 180 million units in 2013 to near those of ordinary laptops. 

Of the estimated tablet PC sales, models powered by Google’s Android mobile operating system will account for 38 million units this year. Gartner pointed out that the sales volume will continue to rise to 61-some million units in 2013, but can’t match that of Apple’s iPad until 2016, when an estimate of 170 million units of iPad and 130 million units of Android-installed tablets will be sold. 

As to the Microsoft’s Windows 8, which has been long awaited by global non-iPad tablet vendors to shake up Apple’s leading status in the competitive landscape, Gartner opines that sales of tablets installed with this new operating system will total only 4.86 million units this year, but will shoot up to 14.5 million units for a 7.9% share of the total tablet PC sales in 2013. 

Gartner emphasized that non-iPad suppliers still have a long way to go to catch up with Apple, though they have been working hard on differentiating hardware specifications and application systems of their models to attract consumers. Of the total sales of 60-some million tablet PCs last year, only 17 million units were non-iPad models, according to Gartner’s report. 

But, the launch of Windows 8 is likely to cast a ray of hopes for non-iPad suppliers targeting the commercial segment, Gartner furthered, mainly because most enterprises are more familiar with Microsoft’s PC operating systems, which will grant these suppliers a promising opportunity for boosting their overall sales in the short term. In 2015, the market researcher continued, commercial tablets will command a 35% share of the total sales. 

 

 

According to Gartner, Android isn't doing as bad as everyone here is stating. It's still a viable market and growing rapidly this year.

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post #40 of 56

 

Quote:
Originally Posted by Relic View Post

 

Gartner: Global Tablet PC Sales to Double to 119 M. Units This Year

2012/04/26
Taipei, April 26, 2012 (CENS)--Global sales of tablet PCs are estimated to double to 119 million units this year from 60 million units sold last year, with Apple Inc. to command a dominant share of 61.4%, according to Gartner Inc., a British global PC market researcher. 

Gartner’s latest report indicates that Apple is expected to sell around 73 million units of iPad worldwide this year, more than Hewlett-Packard Co.’s PCs in sales volume. The market researcher also projects optimistically that global sales of tablet PCs will surge to 180 million units in 2013 to near those of ordinary laptops. 

Of the estimated tablet PC sales, models powered by Google’s Android mobile operating system will account for 38 million units this year. Gartner pointed out that the sales volume will continue to rise to 61-some million units in 2013, but can’t match that of Apple’s iPad until 2016, when an estimate of 170 million units of iPad and 130 million units of Android-installed tablets will be sold. 

As to the Microsoft’s Windows 8, which has been long awaited by global non-iPad tablet vendors to shake up Apple’s leading status in the competitive landscape, Gartner opines that sales of tablets installed with this new operating system will total only 4.86 million units this year, but will shoot up to 14.5 million units for a 7.9% share of the total tablet PC sales in 2013. 

Gartner emphasized that non-iPad suppliers still have a long way to go to catch up with Apple, though they have been working hard on differentiating hardware specifications and application systems of their models to attract consumers. Of the total sales of 60-some million tablet PCs last year, only 17 million units were non-iPad models, according to Gartner’s report. 

But, the launch of Windows 8 is likely to cast a ray of hopes for non-iPad suppliers targeting the commercial segment, Gartner furthered, mainly because most enterprises are more familiar with Microsoft’s PC operating systems, which will grant these suppliers a promising opportunity for boosting their overall sales in the short term. In 2015, the market researcher continued, commercial tablets will command a 35% share of the total sales. 

 

 

According to Gartner, Android isn't doing as bad as everyone here is stating. It's still a viable market and growing rapidly this year.

 

You're really willing to pay attention to that article?

First, they're obviously including Kindle and other forked-Android products in the Android numbers. Kindle doesn't help Google or Android adoption at all, so really should be broken out separately.


Second, they're using Android projections to compare to Apple's actual sales.

My favorite, however, is "Gartner pointed out that the sales volume will continue to rise to 61-some million units in 2013, but can’t match that of Apple’s iPad until 2016, when an estimate of 170 million units of iPad and 130 million units of Android-installed tablets will be sold." Wait a second, if 170 M iPads and 130 M Android tablets are sold, how has Android matched Apple?

 

These guys can't even do simple math.



And, of course, that assumes that all the Android tablet makers are content to continue to sell products that they don't make much (if any) money on.

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