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JP Morgan: Apple television unlikely to arrive in 2012

post #1 of 34
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Investment bank J.P. Morgan has poured cold water on speculation that Apple will release a connected television set later this year, while simultaneously offering its own speculation that the company may introduce an "iPay" mobile payment platform.

Analyst Mark Moskowitz said on Thursday in a note to investors obtained by AppleInsider that the firm's research "does not indicated any looming TV-related product launch." He also expressed belief that the economic conditions are not right for Apple to release a television this year.

According to the analyst, the TV industry is experiencing "strained" economics, despite the fact that several television makers offer "suitable" solutions.

"We are not sure that the Apple premium could prevail in the TV market, unless there is a radical change of the user interface, integration of the TV programming and data content, and use of gesture or voice control," he said.

Though Moskowitz expressed skepticism about an upcoming HDTV from Apple, he did note that the firm sees Apple as the company to "radically alter the TV landscape" if it's going to happen.

The analyst believes Apple may take a slower, more evolutionary approach to breaking into the home entertainment market. J.P. Morgan said it believes Apple "has the ability to deliver a differentiated home entertainment solution" independent of separate "game-changing content-related deals" that would need to be negotiated.

"Enhanced-content offerings could augment Apple?s TV solution but are not a necessity for Apple to be successful in the living room, in our view," he said.

Instead, Moskowitz put forth "tight integration of hardware and software, industrial design, and ease of use" as equal, if not more important, factors for the company's success in the living room. Those factors, rather than content, could be Apple's key to success because consumers aren't ready to leave behind "traditional cable offerings," the analyst wrote.

Though he is skeptical of both the "timing or reality" of an Apple television, Moskowitz did propose potential evolutionary outcomes that could result in a full-blown TV. He suggested that Apple could first expand its Apple TV into "more of a set top box module."

"We believe Apple can design a smarter set top box to manage all components behind the end user?s TV experience, as well as eliminate the oft-cumbersome user interface provided by the cable and satellite operators," Moskowitz wrote.

Given that Apple released a minor update to the Apple TV this spring with support for 1080p video playback, the analyst said such a device would not arrive until 2013 at the earliest. Potential software features added to the product could include universal remote capabilities through Siri or gestures, advanced set top box capabilities, DVR capability and gaming console options.

Moskowitz then speculated that a "full-fledged" TV could arrive in 2014, though he noted that Apple's preference for double-digit operating margins could pose a problem. "We think that Apple can differentiate a TV through the industrial design and picture quality," he wrote.

HDTV


The analyst pointed to patent filings detailing Apple's efforts to apply in-plane switching technology to larger screens as evidence that the company could offer an improved picture quality over existing television models. Apple's scale and display investments could also enable it to provide "'Retina Display' quality in a large flat-screen format," according to Moskowitz. Finally, Apple's unparalleled industrial design techniques would give it another advantage in building a successful television.

J.P. Morgan's doubt about a 2012 Apple television launch stands in opposition to some analysts who expect such a device to arrive this year. Jefferies analyst Peter Misek said last month that he has "enough confidence" that Apple will release a television set at the end of this year.

iPay

After voicing skepticism about the long-rumored Apple television project, Moskowitz said he was "more optimistic" about Apple releasing a mobile payment platform. He dubbed the hypothetical service "iPay" and suggested it could make use of near field communication (NFC) technology in future iPhone or iPad devices. NFC chips have been rumored as an addition to the iPhone for years, but they have yet to materialize.

"Currently, we do no have any evidence of an ?iPay? platform in development, but it is our view that the company?s current ?Apple Store? app that enables consumers to check themselves out of an Apple Retail Store could be the stepping stone," he said.

Moskowitz was quick to point out that there would be "hurdles" in working with other financial institutions and the credit card company, but he added that "the prospects of a pay with your own device model are increasingly likely."

Rival Google announced and launched its own NFC e-wallet service last year.
post #2 of 34

Mr. Moskowitz is try to take advantage of slow news week! Everyone, keep moving. There is is nothing to see here. Back to sleep!

post #3 of 34

TV is old hat. I would like to see Apple release an iFab and sell blueprints on iTunes e.g. http://cubify.com/ 

These things could really take off under Apple's simplifying hand, but most of them only have Windows software.

post #4 of 34

Yesterday I was at a Samsung demo booth. They showed me their latest "Smart TV". It was a piece of crap. It didn't work.

UI was horrible. Voice recognition didn't work. Camera motion control didn't work. It would've been better for the company had they not released it.

So Apple, you just keep working on your living room thing and release it when it's ready.

You'll be last in the race, but hopefully game changing enough for people to get wowed. (Just like with the iPhone.)

Apple could make a great interface ready for summer release (as long as it's not voice and motion based.. then it'll take forever to be fool proof)

But to hook up content providers around the world will take them forever, as it has with movies on iTunes, and the current Apple TV.

post #5 of 34

Small detail: it is not JP Morgan that decides what Apple will produce. All JP Morgan can do is make uneducated guesses and create / downplay expectations (think APPL stock manipulation).

post #6 of 34
Quote:
JP Morgan: Apple television unlikely to arrive ever

 

Fixed.

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Originally Posted by asdasd

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post #7 of 34

Someone must be short AAPL.

 

First the run-up on stock price based on crazy, unfounded rumors that Apple would produce a television, then throw cold water on the silly rumors by saying that Apple isn't going to produce a TV.

"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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post #8 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Someone must be short AAPL.

First the run-up on stock price based on crazy, unfounded rumors that Apple would produce a television, then throw cold water on the silly rumors by saying that Apple isn't going to produce a TV.
Bingo.
post #9 of 34
Quote:
"We are not sure that the Apple premium could prevail in the TV market, unless there is a radical change of the user interface, integration of the TV programming and data content, and use of gesture or voice control," he said.

Hmmm... Radical change, gesture or voice control. Was anyone expecting anything less?
post #10 of 34
I'm sick of all these wall street analysts guesses/predictions/research notes being treated as news. This guy doesn't work for Apple and I'm guessing has no inside knowledge of what Apple has in the pipeline.
post #11 of 34
post #12 of 34
post #13 of 34

 

That was one of the sillier articles I've read - and that's saying a lot.


"We saw records that 14 of something were shipped to Apple so we conclude that it must be the next iPhone or an Apple branded TV".

 

Quite a leap of logic there.

"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
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"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
Gatorguy 5/31/13
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post #14 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

TV is old hat. I would like to see Apple release an iFab and sell blueprints on iTunes e.g. http://cubify.com/ 
These things could really take off under Apple's simplifying hand, but most of them only have Windows software.

The way things are going maybe a patent section too? Lol
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Use duckduckgo.com with Safari, not Google Search
Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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post #15 of 34

 

Yeah, Apple certainly doesn't need LCD panels for their other products. lol.gif

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post #16 of 34

 

If I had to make a relatively accurate guess, I'd say these 'shipments' are actually testbed Oompa Loompas that Apple is bringing in to replace their workforce in the near future.

 

Hey!

 

I can analyse shit too!

 

This is awesome!

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post #17 of 34

The guy is almost right on for some points and completly off the tracks for others. 

 

I have notice lots of people are trying to bring down Apple stock since earnings. The market makers were able to buy back and close lots of may19 puts and turn a profit on the last drop but its going to be hard to get the 560-570 range. Its going to be interesting to see where they are going to pin the stock this week.

 

imo we need China mobile for the next leg up (640+). Typical PE compression after earnings range from 12 to 15, that gives us 500 to 612 consolidation. But its going to be hard to compress to 12 PE without any "real" bad news.

 

Investors information:

http://aapltrader99.home.comcast.net/~aapltrader99/Apple_Trading/Welcome.html

http://barefigur.es/

 

That site had the exact same whisper EPS number weeks in advance of earnings...

http://www.earningswhispers.com/stocks.asp?symbol=AAPL


Edited by herbapou - 5/3/12 at 6:23am
post #18 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

 

That was one of the sillier articles I've read - and that's saying a lot.


"We saw records that 14 of something were shipped to Apple so we conclude that it must be the next iPhone or an Apple branded TV".

 

Quite a leap of logic there.


Not any sillier than a picture of a home button or sim card tray and extrapolating what that means for the next gen iPhone. :)

post #19 of 34

" He also expressed belief that the economic conditions are not right for Apple to release a television this year."

 

"We are not sure that the Apple premium could prevail in the TV market, unless there is a radical change of the user interface, integration of the TV programming . . ."

- Mark Moskowitz, May 2, 2012

 

Marky - try and follow me here, buddy. Apple, now the largest corporation in the world, released it's first iPhone in Jan 2007, on the eve of the worst depression in US history since the Great Depression. And I think all will agree, not only was it a "radical change of interface", it took a 20 year cell phone old industry and turned it upside down.

 

And then, during said worst recession since the Great Depression, 2008-2009, started it's ascent to where it is today, by releasing 5 more versions of the iPhone, year after year, each one out selling the previous one. 

 

Do you see a pattern here, Marky? 

 

Oh, and yeah, one more thing. In April 2010, in still extremely bad economic times, they released another little product called the iPad, and then 2011 & 2012, released 2 more versions, each also outselling the previous versions.

 

No, I'm pretty sure Apple just does what it does because they ARE that good. They don't wait for strong markets to release products. They create markets by creating great products.

 

What a knuckle-head. Even my 9 year old son could figure this one out. 


Edited by joey15219 - 5/3/12 at 10:01am
post #20 of 34

And my 9 year old could also figure out that this a-hole is publishing this garbage as a means of negatively influencing AAPL's stock price, while the investor's at JPM are sitting there with their mouse pointers on the "short" button.

 

Are you not aware that Apple is in the works to carve out spaces for Apple Stores inside of Wal-Mart and Target stores? Do you think that is so they can sell iPhones and iPads there?

 

Obviously that is where they are going to put iTV's on display. The TV's are going to be more expensive, so they are anticipating that People are going to want to go see one and try it out before they buy it - just like they do now before buying a TV.

post #21 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by joey15219 View Post
Are you not aware that Apple is in the works to carve out spaces for Apple Stores inside of Wal-Mart and Target stores? Do you think that is so they can sell iPhones and iPads there?

 

Yes, given that we've already seen that is the case.

 

A television remains pointless, really.

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post #22 of 34

This is why the Internet is a bad thing. Before the Internet there were only newspapers, magazines and TV news. The available space or time meant it had to be reserved for real and relevant information. Now with billions of web pages everybody who has something to say gets to. People who in the past who would never have listened to "some analyst at JP Morgan" or devote the resources to him,  now see it all as click bait. Unfortunately the Internet has room for "everybody's opinion". Including mine.lol.gif

post #23 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

A television remains pointless, really.

5 years ago, an Apple cell phone seemed pointless to me too. However, I've learned. If you have not, then sit on the sidelines and watch the show.

 

The television industry is a very badly designed business model. The cable co's force you to buy channels you'll never watch, and force you to watch commercials you don't want to see on the channels you do want to watch, among other things. While over charging for the whole mess.

 

You clearly don't get that Apple is very, very different and unique. Once in a life time type of company.

post #24 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by joey15219 View Post
The television industry is a very badly designed business model. The cable co's force you to buy channels you'll never watch, and force you to watch commercials you don't want to see on the channels you do want to watch, among other things. While over charging for the whole mess.

 

Agreed.

 

But explain to me why I should waste money on a display panel of a quality I do not choose and at a price that benefits neither myself nor the company selling it to change that?

We already have the solution. Apple just isn't doing anything with it. 

 

Quote:
You clearly don't get that Apple is very, very different and unique.

 

Sure I don't. lol.gif You clearly don't get that Apple is NOT being themselves about this whole thing. We need to take a step equivalent to that of the iTunes Music Store in 2003.

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post #25 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by joey15219 View Post

5 years ago, an Apple cell phone seemed pointless to me too. However, I've learned. If you have not, then sit on the sidelines and watch the show.

 

The television industry is a very badly designed business model. The cable co's force you to buy channels you'll never watch, and force you to watch commercials you don't want to see on the channels you do want to watch, among other things. While over charging for the whole mess.

 

You clearly don't get that Apple is very, very different and unique. Once in a life time type of company.

Commercials pay for the shows. If you don't the commercials, then the show is going to cost a lot more or the show won't be made.

post #26 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by pt123 View Post

Commercials pay for the shows. If you don't the commercials, then the show is going to cost a lot more or the show won't be made.

I understand why cable works that way currently, but that does not mean it's the best way. But for people who can't think outside the box, it's the only way, until some company comes along with a revolutionary new and better way of doing something that is not very good to begin with.

 

Enter Apple. Stay tuned . . .

post #27 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by pt123 View Post

Commercials pay for the shows. If you don't the commercials, then the show is going to cost a lot more or the show won't be made.

I understand why cable works that way currently, but that does not mean it's the best way. But for people who can't think outside the box, it's the only way, until some company comes along with a revolutionary new and better way of doing something that is not very good to begin with.

 

Enter Apple. Stay tuned . . .

post #28 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Agreed.

 

But explain to me why I should waste money on a display panel of a quality I do not choose and at a price that benefits neither myself nor the company selling it to change that?

 

You should not waste your money on buying the product, if you do not want it, but it does not make an argument that others will follow what you decide for yourself.

post #29 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

Sure I don't. lol.gif You clearly don't get that Apple is NOT being themselves about this whole thing. We need to take a step equivalent to that of the iTunes Music Store in 2003.

 

iTunes, EXACTLY!!!

 

They ARE being themselves, you're just not seeing it.

 

iTunes is just a software solution for their hardware at the time (iPod) to deliver "other people's content" to the device.

The iPod grew up to be an iPhone, the iPhone gained a cousin called the iPad, and iTunes has expanded it's collection of other people's content to deliver to iPod, iPhone, iPad, and iMac's & Mac Books, and now will deliver to the iTV, or iPanel as some have suggested.

 

I buy whatever shows I want, not what the cable co's shove down my throat. And the major tv networks will follow. This will also free up your entertainment center of your, DVR, DVD, cable box, any sort of media sharing hardware that you may have, and about 100 feet of cable/wires.

post #30 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by joey15219 View Post
You should not waste your money on buying the product, if you do not want it, but it does not make an argument that others will follow what you decide for yourself.

 

I'm making a nigh-unshakeable argument that there is zero purpose or meaning to an Apple television. If you'd like to tell me what a $2,000 TV can do that a $99 box couldn't do better, I'm all ears.

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post #31 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by DCGOO View Post

Quote:
"We are not sure that the Apple premium could prevail in the TV market, unless there is a radical change of the user interface, integration of the TV programming and data content, and use of gesture or voice control," he said.
Hmmm... Radical change, gesture or voice control. Was anyone expecting anything less?

My money says that Apple has a totally new way of controlling the TV. It will be called the iWalk. People will actually get up from their sofa and walk across the room and mechanically adjust the volume and change channels. People will once again interact with their TVs on a personal basis. Imagine, during a horror flick, if enough people screamed, "Don't go in the basement!" The actor on the screen would actually stop and think about it.

post #32 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by joey15219 View Post

I understand why cable works that way currently, but that does not mean it's the best way. But for people who can't think outside the box, it's the only way, until some company comes along with a revolutionary new and better way of doing something that is not very good to begin with.

 

Enter Apple. Stay tuned . . .


Not very good? Depends on who you ask. The best way would be if it was free for me and no commercials. How is that for out of the box and revolutionary?

post #33 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by joey15219 View Post

I understand why cable works that way currently, but that does not mean it's the best way. But for people who can't think outside the box, it's the only way, until some company comes along with a revolutionary new and better way of doing something that is not very good to begin with.

 

Enter Apple. Stay tuned . . .

Oh yea, just look at the music industry and how well they're doing now because of Apple, its a no-brainer for the TV industry to follow suit. 

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post #34 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by joey15219 View Post

I understand why cable works that way currently, but that does not mean it's the best way. But for people who can't think outside the box, it's the only way, until some company comes along with a revolutionary new and better way of doing something that is not very good to begin with.

 

Enter Apple. Stay tuned . . .

 

Mkay...cable networks spends $20B a year on content.  They generate $22B in ad revenue and $25B in fees from companies like Comcast and DirectTV.

 

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/dec/08/business/la-fi-ct-cable-economics-20111208

 

So, to get access to the same content as Comcast Apple would have to pay about the same as Comcast (around 7 billion).  Assuming the content producers would sell it to them but lets assume that even though Netflix has some problems doing so.

 

Now Apple has to make 7 billion a year on content to break even on that expense.  Why does that strike me as highly improbable?

 

For cable networks to move to a new business model it has to generate $48B in revenue a year.  Why does that strike me as highly improbable?

 

You know, it's pretty arrogant to imply that folks that disagree with a rumor can't think outside the box.  There have been lots of rumors that haven't panned out and an Apple HDTV has been a perennial favorite since 2006.

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