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iPad tablet market share will dip to 50% by 2017, study says

post #1 of 110
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Market research firm NPD estimates that Apple's share of the tablet space will dwindle to just over 50 percent by 2017, while Android and Windows-based devices will begin continue to eat into the iPad's overwhelming lead by 2014.

The findings were reported in NPD Group subsidiary DisplaySearch's Tablet Quarterly on Thursday which estimates that the overall tablet market will swell from 81.6 million units in 2011 to 424.9 million units by 2017.

The report notes that worldwide tablet shipments will surpass those of notebooks by 2016 driven by an increasing set of features, operating system diversity and manufacturing capacity.

?So far in this relatively young product category, the tablet PC market has been dominated by Apple and has tended to include a number of competing products that are similarly configured to the iPad,? said NPD DisplaySearch Senior Analyst Richard Shim. ?However, as the market matures and competitors become better attuned to consumer preferences and find opportunities to break new ground, we expect the landscape to change dramatically, giving consumers more choices, which will drive demand for more devices.?

One of the main differentiators between the variety of tablets currently and the proposed future is which operating system is used, and thus far Apple's iOS has dominated the space since its introduction in 2010.

As of the first quarter of 2012, research firm IDC saw the iPad as owning 68 percent share of the entire tablet market.

NPD expects that Apple's share will fall from 72.1 percent in 2012 to reach 50.9 percent in 2017, while Android and Windows RT tablet shipments will grow from 22.5 percent to 40.5 percent and 1.5 percent to 7.5 percent, respectively.

NPD iPad
Source: NPD DisplaySearch


The findings are slightly different than recent numbers posted by Gartner that said the iPad will have less than a 50 percent share of the market by 2016.
post #2 of 110
Who comes up with sh!t??!! I mean really, you can predict 5 years into the future??!! Predict me the next lotto numbers.

Assuming Apple stops all innovation from this point forward, then that might be the case.
post #3 of 110

Also in 2017, pigs will fly..lol.gif

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post #4 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by sflocal View Post

Who comes up with sh!t??!! I mean really, you can predict 5 years into the future??!! Predict me the next lotto numbers.
Assuming Apple stops all innovation from this point forward, then that might be the case.

one would assume that, at least in shaped off past market performance, you can come up with more accurate figures than being right 1:14,000,000 or less.

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post #5 of 110

Unless Google gets serious with Tablets, this will not happen. Windows maybe, because they are pouring everything they have into their next OS. But this is predicted with this year's devices, no one knows what kind of iPad Apple is going to make in two years, or if iOS makes its way into OS X.

 

In conclusion, this report is BS.

Apple had me at scrolling
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Apple had me at scrolling
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post #6 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by sflocal View Post

Who comes up with sh!t??!! I mean really, you can predict 5 years into the future??!! Predict me the next lotto numbers.
Assuming Apple stops all innovation from this point forward, then that might be the case.

 

Agreed!  So far everyone who has made a prediction about how ipads market share would drop has blown it.  Now a new a$$ clown decides to adjust accordingly with the smallest drop in market share yet (over 5 year time span).  He obviously has a better grasp on reality  ;  )

post #7 of 110

Nope.

Originally posted by Marvin

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Originally posted by Marvin

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post #8 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by sflocal View Post

Who comes up with sh!t??!! I mean really, you can predict 5 years into the future??!! Predict me the next lotto numbers.
Assuming Apple stops all innovation from this point forward, then that might be the case.

 

They use existing sales trends, interview stores for buying trends across the various products, then run algorithms to try and predict the future. This is done in every industry so why are you surprised? Do you honestly believe Apple will maintain the lead it has now forever? Seriously, are you that naive? Apple has had leads in the past and squandered them before so WAKE UP.

post #9 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apfeltosh View Post
Do you honestly believe Apple will maintain the lead it has now forever?

 

Yes.

 

Quote:

Apple has had leads in the past and squandered them before…

 

Which?

 

Quote:
…so WAKE UP.

 

Get back to saving your lost company. lol.gif

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #10 of 110

Amazing how they can predict how well Windows RT is going to do based on no data whatsoever. The dam thing does not properly exists yet.  Also, as far as I remember most of Android recent grows was due to Kindle Fire.  Just couple days ago I read that Fire sales going down like lead balloon. Most of market research is BS (and rest is stating obvious things).  Things do change rather fast, there is no way in hell anyone can predict it.  

post #11 of 110
Remember all those analysts predicting that WinMo would be the future market leader in smartphone OSes? And that was before WinPh was released or announced.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Quote:
Originally Posted by Apfeltosh 
Do you honestly believe Apple will maintain the lead it has now forever?
Yes.
Let's examine this... so in 100 years, 1000 years, and 100,000 years you think Apple will still be leading the pack?

They certainly have plenty of momentum to push them even farther ahead for the forseeable future, but you can't say forever.

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

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post #12 of 110

Please, don't even give this article the slightest bit of credibility by posting a reason why or why not this will happen. Probability one of the most stupid articles ever written on this site. I'm embarrassed for AI.

post #13 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post
Let's examine this... so in 100 years, 1000 years, and 100,000 years you think Apple will still be leading the pack?

 

Yes. Semantics!

 

Quote:
They certainly have plenty of momentum to push them even farther ahead for the forseeable future, but you can't say forever.

 

Sure I can! It just doesn't have to be true! lol.gif

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

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post #14 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

Sure I can! It just doesn't have to be true! lol.gif

Touché.

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"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

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post #15 of 110

I really like how this number keeps getting pushed further and further away. First it was 2012, 2013, 2014, etc etc. At this time next year there will be analysts saying "okay it will DEFINITELY, probably, dip to 50% by 2018."

post #16 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by MusicComposer View Post
I really like how this number keeps getting pushed further and further away. First it was 2012, 2013, 2014, etc etc. At this time next year there will be analysts saying "okay it will DEFINITELY, probably, dip to 50% by 2018."

 

I like how the number keeps getting lower, too.

Originally posted by Marvin

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Originally posted by Marvin

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post #17 of 110

Who knows what we'll be using in 5yrs. I don't think 5 years ago we thought we'd be using iPads and iPhones either. There's always something that comes up better. Apple just has to stay ahead of the game. Keep being a trend setter and not a follower like everyone else. This is kind of a pointless article. 

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post #18 of 110

What makes this especially laughable is that the iPhone was introduced just 5.25 years ago in January. Back up one day before that, and imagine NPD's forecast for Apple's market share in phones, tablets, and other touch devices. Based on past performance, the market share would be zero in 2012, and zero in 2017. Remember that Facebook was only opened to the public 5.5 years ago. Instagram was sold for $1 billion after being in business for 18 months! No technologist has any business predicting 5 years ahead. 

post #19 of 110

But by 2015 Apple will begin pouring all its resources into Monster Truck and literally crush the competition.

post #20 of 110

If Apple does not release a smaller iPad, its market share will become smaller. Even the fan boys know this.

post #21 of 110

"The report notes that worldwide tablet shipments..."

 

Come on guys, they're talking about SHIPMENTS!  lol.gif

post #22 of 110

Apple should get the US Government to let them bring foreign profits back to the US, free of taxes, if it is invested in research and development.  The US would get some of the money back, many bright people would get jobs, Apple could expand its research and the seven dwarfs would have other things to copy for the next few decades.

post #23 of 110

This SO reminds me of all the crap predictions about Apple's future in the music player business when they came out with the iPod which was more expensive then the market leaders at the time. No one thought Apple had a chance. Then we had to endure a year or two of "iPod killers." That was before Microsoft jumped in with the Zune! OMG, you'd swear that Apple was just going to get steamrolled by Microsoft! Then Sony tried to recapture the market which they once OWNED with the Walkman. No body could unseat Apple and here is it, a gazillion years later and Apple still dominates the music player market. 

 

Now, times are different. The tablet market, as it is today, was created by Apple (in b4 MS table) and Apple has led in the sales of the iPad. So, this time Apple didn't jump in late. Apple didn't have to struggle this time to grab market share. Apple has the best customer service, best app store selection, best retail outlets ( both with their own stores and in-store areas), best display, and best UI. That's a winning combo. 

 

What's brand X have? Microsoft has a few company stores for the various brands of tablets can be shown. But Microsoft can't troubleshoot the phones and tablets that their software runs on, while the manufacturers can't do much with the MS software...which is still in Alpha while Apple's software is in version 5. How long will people put up with MS getting their software to function like they thought it would (current Nokia WinMo7 comes to mind). Even if MS takes a couple years to get all their pieces working, that Apple totally has running today, while will customers suddenly find WinMo8 desirable any more then they liked the Zune when it finally got its kinks worked out?

 

Then, look at Android in all it's various versions, screen ratios, flavors and hardware qualities... It's like a carnival with each ride playing a different tune. I think Amazon will still be selling readers that you can access Amazon so it can suck your money out of your pocket. But I doubt Amazon really cares if the Smoke and Fire ever do much more than that. The device works perfectly to keep you from surfing beyond Amazon as it is right now. That leaves Samsung, who might actually give Apple some competition. I've been in the Office stores where Samsung, Amazon Fire, B&N Nook, etc are on display. It's pathetic really. Most tablets don't work or are uncharged. They are covered in smudge prints with bright overhead lights washing out the displays. The sales people have only a glimmer of training in how to show them off. Nearly nothing going for the products, including Samsung, to move a shopper to become a buyer. How will Samsung or anyone do well in the face of Apple's well-oiled marketing programs?? 

 

Only those companies that cannot sell the iPad have any reason to be selling anything else. The learning curve is too high and the return on the time spent learning and selling is too low to attract outlets to really push the products. For companies that CAN sell the iPad, the sale is easy and quick and the customer won't be back 16% of the time with a non-working piece of brand X in a bag. 

 

While projections and numbers crunched sound good to the bean counters, there are realities to be dealt with. Remember IBM? They came along and dominated the typewriter market. None of the big names of the day could ever make a dent. Royal OWNED the manual typewriter market and lost it completely to IBM. IBM never was unseated. They saw the future of the PC doing the job of the typewriter and sold out their mechanical and inkjet business to Xmark while the getting was good. 

 

There's no reason why Apple has to lose market share any more then they did with the iPod or IBM did with the Selectric typewriter. Besides, I think Apple knows how to anchor themselves in a niche, even if it's not one of their making... but especially one of their making.

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post #24 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter236 View Post

If Apple does not release a smaller iPad, its market share will become smaller. Even the fan boys know this.

I want a larger iPad.  Wouldn't a reasonable person expect Apple's market share to drop as the market matures?  Of course, profits have thus far followed an entirely different trajectory.

 

We've said it before, Apple is a hardware and software company and innovative.  It will not give up market share easily.

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Where are we on the curve? We'll know once it goes asymptotic!
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post #25 of 110

Maybe this forecast is right.  It says that Apple will sell 215,000,000 iPads in 2017.  With an ASP of $650 and 30% margins, that's $42B in profit.

post #26 of 110

Studies??? 5 year out predictions??? Find me a study that 5 years ago said today in 2012 Apple would have 95% tablet share and be the most valuable company in the world with a $600 stock price and I'll show you a study source I'll pay attention to.

post #27 of 110

There is indeed one way that MS can make inroads on the iPad, and its disturbing and may end up in the court system. Recently, there have been news reports that MS is not going to allow certain apps allowing windows on iPads, unless there is a huge licensing fee. This would cause some problems with Office, etc, and citrix apps remotely accessing Windows on corporate servers. This is not a good thing. Lets see how this develops over time, because our company was definitely planning citrix access for remote access. When I talked to IT recently, they said this was now on hold. This story is just developing :(

post #28 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apfeltosh View Post

 

They use existing sales trends, interview stores for buying trends across the various products, then run algorithms to try and predict the future. This is done in every industry so why are you surprised? Do you honestly believe Apple will maintain the lead it has now forever? Seriously, are you that naive? Apple has had leads in the past and squandered them before so WAKE UP.

 

 

Weren't their "algorithms" predicting that this was going to happen this year, last year or the iPad would not get off the ground at all?

 

Maybe that was someone else but who cares, these things are about as about meaningful as fantasy league sports.

 

I suspect they used the "tablets will mimic the smartphone market so let's base our predictions off that".

 

FALL ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL LIKE rim.

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post #29 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by grblade View Post

Studies??? 5 year out predictions??? Find me a study that 5 years ago said today in 2012 Apple would have 95% tablet share and be the most valuable company in the world with a $600 stock price and I'll show you a study source I'll pay attention to.

 

If I remember that RBC guy was saying sell APPL at $70 because they were going down from there.

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post #30 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post

This SO reminds me of all the crap predictions about Apple's future in the music player business when they came out with the iPod...

 

There's no reason why Apple has to lose market share any more then they did with the iPod or IBM did with the Selectric typewriter. Besides, I think Apple knows how to anchor themselves in a niche, even if it's not one of their making... but especially one of their making.

Historically, the portable digital music business might well be viewed in almost its entirety as an Apple preserve, from almost the beginning to the end...  It has been said that genius is not witnessed in beginning something but in being the last player - Apple might well achieve that feat and probably already has in purely portable, digital music.

 

It is conceivable that Apple might see out the tablet era as well as we know it today.  Once tablets supplant notebooks the glorified consumption device tag will be irrelevant and a new era will begin.

 

All the best.

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post #31 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by iVlad View Post

Unless Google gets serious with Tablets, this will not happen. Windows maybe, because they are pouring everything they have into their next OS. But this is predicted with this year's devices, no one knows what kind of iPad Apple is going to make in two years, or if iOS makes its way into OS X.

 

In conclusion, this report is BS.

 

given the current trend, indeed. As you say unless there is some serious competition. in terms of numbers sold and not returned by the customers two days later etc. 

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

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post #32 of 110

I find it hard to believe that anyone can predict 5 years in advance how the tablet or any market will change. There are too many variables involved which make this type of prediction nothing more than a guess. Demographics, state of the economy, inflation, new inventions as well as at least a dozen other factors will all play a factor in this kind of call ,and as anyone can see these are complicated areas to predict.

post #33 of 110

Space people will land on earth in 2017 film at 11PM.

post #34 of 110

It is quite easy to design simple tablets with limited functionality (eBooks reading). Most on line retail companies in the publishing business (in Us as well as in other countries) do this. The price can be cheap, and the OS does not really matter.

 

Whereas some can achieve somme success in this strategy makes no doubt for me, competing with Apple on the market of a versatile tablet is another story ..

 

So, it all depends what we call a "tablet" ....

post #35 of 110

Let's do some simple math.  If Apple sold a little over 40 Million units in 2011 and if these projections are correct, which i doubt.  Apple will have 50% of 424 Million units?  That means they will sell approx. 210 Million units in 2017.  That 5x 2011 numbers.  The only reason why they might only sell that many is that they might not be able to make more.  I think whomever came up with these numbers made some false assumptions that Android will still be shipping older versions of their OS in 5 years from now and that Microsoft will actually make a dent in the tablet market.  So far, Apple is making lots of successful inroads in the corporate market, the education and government markets, not to mention the average consumer market.  If Apple progresses the way they have so far, I think the market share will stay around 65 to 75%, it is just a matter of how fast the market grows in general.  But that's just my opinion.

post #36 of 110

Yup, everyone knows that owning 50% of any market sucks.

post #37 of 110

Wow!  Predictions like this must hurt really bad, when they pull them out of their posterior like that!

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post #38 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apfeltosh View Post

 

They use existing sales trends, interview stores for buying trends across the various products, then run algorithms to try and predict the future. This is done in every industry so why are you surprised? 

 I'm so surprised that they can predict a trend five years into the future, on a product category that was effectively created a little more than two years ago.  There is not enough history to be able to predict with any accuracy that far ahead.  In fact considering what Apple did with a somewhat similar product category - personal music players - I believe you could predict just the opposite.  

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We've always been at war with Eastasia...

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post #39 of 110

Assuming this actually happens, is that really a bad thing? Obviously the tablet market will be absolutely massive in 2017, much bigger than it is now, and if Windows 8 survives this will be a major focus for Microsoft, with hundreds of OEMs making Win tablets. If 1 out of every 2 tablets sold in the world came from Apple, thats nothing to scoff at. Still, trying to predict anything in the tech world 5 years away is complete idiocy. 

post #40 of 110
Quote:
Originally Posted by TomMcIn View Post

Apple should get the US Government to let them bring foreign profits back to the US, free of taxes, if it is invested in research and development.  The US would get some of the money back, many bright people would get jobs, Apple could expand its research and the seven dwarfs would have other things to copy for the next few decades.


1. How can Apple possibly spend over $75 billion in R&D?

2. All bright people already have jobs.
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