Apple stock seen hitting $2,000 by the end of 2015 - Page 2

It's a good discussion. I take analysts predictions like this as merely a "what if" scenario. I will use the numbers quarter by quarter to see if they track on this trajectory. Nevertheless, a huge part of the valuation in the future will rely in the further growth outlook at that time. Even if Apple hits all of Zaky's sales and earnings milestones, the perception of future growth will have a significant impact then. We also have the complexity of Apple beginning to distribute earnings through dividends.

That's why I added "Virtually" to my post. Name one mainstream, popular phone that isn't.

As far as subsidy being higher, well of course it is. Because the phone costs more. Do you reall think the subsidy on a "burner" would be the same as a 4S?

The more the analyst says this , the more I feel scared .

Andy´s $2,000 Stock.

I have a great respect for Andy and read him where I found an article of him or about him, but in this case the numbers don´t fit, at least in the IPhone units.   If you add the total number of IPhones in 2014 it´s more than 600 million combined, assuming that a organized secondary market exists for this product (the only case I know in the industry), still means that 1 of every 11 people on the planet will have one.

 

When you analyse the total elders, poors, childs, etc then you rests the people in countries where telecomms are not robust enough.....you finally reach the conclusion that at least 5 billion people are unsuitable by their condition.

 

So you can have a 2 billion people market and then you make your Gauss curve of income, scholarity and age and find that many of them barely earns $ 4,000 per year, have more than 60 or less than 15 and many don´t read or write, paying a smartphone service of $20 is unviable.

 

So perhaps the $2000 magic number can be achieved but not with the actual line of products, many other different products will be necessary for that...Still I will keep my shares, be sure of that.

 

Regards.

Buy an odd lot.

Go back to the context of the original post that you replied to:

You should be able to recognize that the argument was not whether all phones are subsidized or not, but about which phone could be affected most when carriers inevitably lose interest in lavish subsidies because the number of new subscribers will have thinned out.

When the wireless services that the phones consume are the same, it only makes sense to have equal carrier subsidies. That is currently not the case in the US.

LOL, that is pathetically illogical.

Go ahead, don't buy, you'll miss out due to fear of "the laws of too much success" and fall victim to Hedgie's scaring you out of the stock, then, it'll pass $600 and make $600 be "the one I should have gotten in at", while you fall victim to believing it'll "be stuck at $800.. 900.. 1,000.. etc.". This dance has been done since the stock was under $100 ("It'll never hit $100.. 200.. 300.. 400.. 500.. 600.. etc.".

Focus on fundamentals and logistics. Apple has a lot of growth ahead of it.... hell, they could shut their doors down and generate more revenue off of their cash than most of their competitors will even make. The stock may remain absurdly depressed compared to the company's performance, but as always, the company will have to drag it along. Remember that if AAPL had a fair valuation, even less than Priceline's, it would be over $2,000 already. Also, remember that after being at a 12 P/E at the beginning of the year, it almost touched a 19, so the 20's aren't out of reach, per-se, it's just the company grows so fast, it's tough for the stock to keep up with it.. but when those upward corrections happen, boy does it try.

Ooh, look! Another "scared" investor! Thanks to that notion of illogical "fear" (Really? Fear? $150 B in the bank soon, a big dividend, 100% YOY growth WHILST being the richest company in the world, and you're "scared"? Not time to be scared, right now it's time to catch the train while it's rolling and rolling well into the foreseeable future).

I wonder if some of you even read the number instead of sheepishly getting swayed by the media trickery of headlines. Zaky backs his assumptions up with simple logic, numbers, conservatively perceived growth, and a conservative P/E. This isn't "OMGDZ, Apple will be king of the world one day" type stuff.. this is simple predictions using very logically based metrics.

This I agree with. While his iPhone prediction can very well happen I think (China just surpassed the U.S in phone subscribers, and Apple is just getting its feet wet in China, HUUGE growth coming there, and they LOVE Apple products, and will for a long time), I think to really solidify a case to be consistent in their enormously impressive growth, they will need new products.... and rest assured, Management aren't a bunch of dummies (Apple isn't the most valuable company with the most brilliant business model for nothing), and new products will be in the pipeline. At current stock prices, I don't think people are accounting for ANY new models coming out (clearly, with that terribly low P/E ratio), so as they introduce new segments, the stock will soar and correct accordingly.

As I've said before, we've done this dance so many times, yet people always seem to have a short term memory when it comes to AAPL stock.

I heard exactly like that before Arizona real estate bubble bursts. The guy has shot himself before loan sharks get to him.

And when would you cash out, have any ballpark estimate or the magic number to trigger the sale?

 

Me? I may not have that luxury to wait. Outside factors forced me to sell to raise cash. You know what happened to Euro.

More irrelevant doomsday scenario's. So Apple is like the Arizona housing bubble? LOL, where do you guys come up with this stuff?

 

There's been many a slip between the lip and the cup.

 

You seem to take this quite personally.

Nope. I just hate irrationality. I've heard people compare Apple to that of U.S bonds, now to the Arizona housing bubble. What I realize is that doomsday-seekers will stop at nothing to scare themselves out of smart investments. Apple is the exact opposite of any of any of that.

 

I also dislike irrationality. That's why I found it funny that some people were predicting $700 in a month and nothing-but-up etc. after the last quarterly results.

 

It was quite obvious that AAPL was headed for nothing but down for a period... a period that could last until the end of the year.

 

I just didn't understand how people could think that AAPL was headed up when Apple itself was guiding down for at least the next quarter... having already been down from the previous quarter.

 

Is Apple doing well?  Of course.  Investors get nervous with any company, especially Apple, when it looks as if the balance sheet won't pick up speed again for a few months. Their thinking is as I stated... "There is many a slip between the lip and cup".

However, who can blame anyone for thinking that AAPL should head up and up, when it just posted incredible (INCREDIBLE) quarterly results.... in fact, their best ever. XMax quarter was initially their best quarter, but such a blowout in what's usually a pretty slow quarter, showing that XMas-Quarter numbers were no fluke, is the strongest "Buy Signal" if I've ever heard one.

 

Not to mention, Forward P/E levels almost in the single digits, iPhone 5 coming this year, who knows what else coming this year, etc. Fundamentally, AAPL stock has a ton of upward correction. Now, of course the market is irrational, and those who invest more in market psych and short trends could have seen some sideways time coming, but that's a more illogical, unverifiable form of investing. 

 

I don't think AAPL will go sideways until the end of the year. I think it'll definitely be over $700, BUT, at worst, it might take iPhone 5 build up and launch to get us there.

 

... and yet, here we are... down another $5.

 

Could it be that you are wrong about how the markets actually work?

Understand that how the market works is merely a guess, I'm not contesting that. I'm talking *fundamentals*. If the market were fundamentally driven, then buying AAPL anywhere is a great investment, because it's drastically undervalued. Your "I told you so" is simple luck, AAPL could have easily gone the other way.... BUT.... the market is irrational, isn't it? Maybe I trust fundamentals too much, and in the short term it's quite inconsistent, but in the long term, it's still the best way to invest.

 

Luck?  I must be pretty lucky.

 

... but I know I could get it right 15 times over 5 years and you'd still say it's luck.

At the same time, when AAPL was stuck at $380 levels and even lower with a 13 P/E last year, and I bought thinking the Stock should be at $600 already, was that fundamental logic or luck? Or when AAPL is well over $800 in a year and a half or so (maybe by the end of this year), will that be luck or simple fundamental sense? 

 

I think the divide here is short term VS long term outlook. If Joe-Investor likes AAPL, and liked Apples performance and fundamentals to buy after their earnings release to invest in the company for a longer term, by the time he's ready to sell, $620 or $550 won't be such a big difference. It's like the Buffett way of thinking: You like a company and the stock? Simply buy it, get in, and ignore the noise. If you're trading for short term gains, every dollar and time limit counts (this is why trading drove me NUTS, regardless of how I was doing).

 

Try and explain that to someone who bought above $620. Those people understand what I am saying. Sure it's nice to believe that Apple will rise above $700, and it most likely will... but anything can happen between now and then.

 

Noise doesn't come just from those who are pessimistic...

When AAPL fell to $360, I had bought my most recent shares at $420. I felt bad then, sure, but I feel pretty damn good about my logical and fundamentally sound call now. Same will happen to those who bought at $620. At $620, you're still getting a brilliant company at a very cheap price (P/E of 14). You can't predict where the markets will go, but you can practically predict where a stock will go in the long term (up, down, stock price ratio relative to assumed earnings, etc.).

 

If someone's going long, then all they can beat themselves up about is not waiting a week+ before they bought at $620. But hey, $620 is a great technical price, and they'll make a HUGE profit on that in the long run, and I'm not even talking multiple years. 

Now, I could care less about buying at $360 or $420, but back then, it obviously bothered me. Same will happen again, as it's happened so many times before, as it will happen so many more times going forward.

To those who bought at $620, I say "Ignore the noise, don't worry about day to day, just worry about how much money you'll be counting when your solid and wise investment pays off".

 

You're just guessing.

You're getting desperate. There was no guessing involved. I'll bet you all my AAPL shares that AAPL will get well above $620 again. How much are you willing to bet that they won't?

Again, long term investor VS short term trader. Here lies the disparity.

That's a safe bet. The question is, when?

 

I never said that it wouldn't but anyone who thinks that they are doing anything but guessing in the stock market is a fool.

 

After the iPhone was introduced (and then again after the iPad was introduced) it became very clear that Apple was firing on all cylinders and that AAPL was undervalued.

 

During this time we saw AAPL hit a high of $200 and then sink back to a ridiculous value under $90. Investors always seem to treat Apple with a "show me" attitude.

 

Show them what and when??!... lower and lower iPhone sales (regardless if the numbers are still greater than last year), lower and lower iPad sales (regardless if the numbers are still greater than last year), lower and lower iPod numbers... and the iMac numbers don't seem to matter to investors.

 

The potential at Apple is enormous, no doubt. The financials are staggering, no doubt.

 

... but until Apple either brings out another wonder product and/or has another enormous holiday quarter it doesn't have much to show to get the price back over the high of $640 (any other company might have been over $740 at that point).

 

It's just the way the markets treat Apple.

Say what? So investors, namely Vanguard and Reinassance, are saying that iPhone 5 means nothing now. And if you want $700 per share, bring me the next iWonder?

 

How would Ive do that?

That's what I said. It seems you, like Apple][ and Long Term Capital of 1989, trust the full faith in fundamentals and matermatics and throw away human factors altogether. My aunt invested with them and lost all her savings.

 

Humans don't use their heads when things are too good or too bad. I am expecting someone to lose his nerve and set off the stampede at $650. Just one traders got a cold feet, but at this price of AAPL, one man running could get the same result as someone yelling 'Fire!' in the cinema. You will only get trampled to death holding on to fundamentals.

 

Can you afford to eat up the losses and volatility of, say, 30% up and down for 5-6 years?

 

What the **** are you talking about?

 

Did you miss the part about the monster holiday quarter. (hint - that would be the effect of iPhone ver. 6)

 

... and I'm totally missing the reference to Ive... being that he is only a part of the equation.

 

[  you can't even say **** on here anymore... now that's hilarious. I wonder what happens when I call someone a **** ]

Edited by island hermit - 5/16/12 at 9:21am

 

People who have rode this same ol' same ol' since they bought the stock long ago, are doing pretty well with their purchases. They rode out AAPL going from $360 to $300, $430 to $350, etc. etc. last year, and the year before.... and before, etc.

 

If you want to make real profits on AAPL, you simply buy and hold. If you are a great trader, and have lots of time and energy and stress to spare, then you can do quite well by trading it. 

 

Certain companies it's best to judge by fundamentals first, and Apple is one of them. I for one am not swayed by downward trends and won't be selling, been there done that. What I do hope I can do is have enough capital to buy more if it gets to certain trigger points.

This is what I refer to. So you said investors will never get the stock to $650 because they want something more than iPhone and iPad could give them, then what else is there? And if Mac numbers are irrelevant now, is it just leave the next iWonder Product, which have to blow away both iPhone and iPad like they blew iPod away in 2007? They tried iDividens, and only brought it above $600.

 

How do we get Godzilla's magic number of $1000 per share before he died of old age, hit the retirement, or forced to offload to raise cash for whatever reason, without the next iOS device? Judging by his style of writing and use of vocabs, he doesn't have that long.

 

Apple has a chance to bring AAPL up to $700 after the 2012 holiday quarter if they sell 47-50 million iPhones, keep iPad sales steady and keep iMac sales steady. If iPad sales increase and Mac sales increase along with 47-50 iPhones then we'll see $750.

 

... but $1000. Wow! Don't know how unless another magic iProduct hits the shelves or they sell 25 million iPads and 60 million iPhones and 8 million Macs... which could happen... one day... really...

 

A 26 P/E currently would get them there, nothing "magical" there. 

If Apple stayed completely dormant, China could get them there as they're still in infantile stages of the "Apple Experience". Not to mention, standard growth of the existing models would get them there. Guys like you who don't have the wit, logic, or sack to jump in and go for a fundamentally "duh!" ride, will play naysayer and shriek in fear "Where are the buyers?! How can this stock move upt?!" all the way there, just as you probably did since $200 a share.

Come aboard, enjoy the ride. The fundamentals are mapped out, and conservative guidance and a low P/E will get AAPL to $1,000 a share soon enough. The real question is "where will they go from there?". Apple has momentum in spades right now, and emerging markets, as long as they keep themselves hungry, 1 Trillion Dollar Market Cap should be expected. They should already essentially be there. I mean, they have 15% of that in cash right now for sh*t's sake.