Analysis: Now is the time to buy Apple stock - Page 2

Quote:

Originally Posted by dasanman69 


2008 was a great time to buy as well, it was well below $100.

2008 ?

Hard to forget THAT year

Seems were a LOT of 'bargains' floating around, yea ?

Well, long as you knew the difference

Between shit and shinola (smile)

Speaking of which - Facebook

(the latest greatest flavor of the week)

Beware, it ain't Apple (more like AOL or Yahoo)

And Suckerman ain't no Steve Jobs

(more like Billy-Bob-Gates or MonkeyBoy)

So before you hitch your wagon to that, or any, horse

Ask yourself this ...

Is the Company's Boss (CEO/etc)

Willing to spend 15 years to Change the World ?

(REALLY Change the World)

And do it for $15.00 ?

.

Ok, Grasshopper, now Choose Wisely ($mile)

.

.

Oh yea, and PS ...

To anyone who thinks they can peddle shit as shinola ?

Remember another ol' saying about 'Fooling Folks'

Some of the time, all of the time, etc etc (look it up)

And Lest We Forget ...

cough, Lehman Bro, cough, Enron, cough, 1929, cough cough

.

Quote:

Originally Posted by drobforever 

 

The question is, why would you buy at 605? Normally for those who bought at 2xx level, they'd have sold most of them, not buy more after it's up more than 200%. Fundamentally, analysts always call AAPL cheap, but it was a lot cheaper at 2xx, 3xx or even 4xx than 605. Technically, it was exploding from 4xx to 6xx, and it's bounded to drop.

 

Anyway, not criticizing here, we all try to learn from our trades.

Apple at $605 was a screaming fundamental buy as well, and will be proven extremely lucrative in due time. A stock is only "cheap" relative to its current and foreseeable company performance. At $200, AAPL was valued much higher relative to company performance, therefore, at $605 and a P/E of about 14, FWD being around 10, AAPL stock relative to company is much cheaper today than it was at $200, yesterday.

How not to buy is what I did about a month ago when it was $604. Just do the opposite of what I did and anyone should be golden. ;-)

Quote:

Originally Posted by uguysrnuts 

How not to buy is what I did about a month ago when it was $604. Just do the opposite of what I did and anyone should be golden. ;-)

I know exactly what you mean. :D

Quote:

Originally Posted by drobforever 

 

The problem is, the article is saying as if oh we don't initiate buy ratings often, only when AAPL is incredibly cheap. But the stocks has gone up so much during the past 1/2 year, even with the recent drop, is still a lot more expensive than before. Also, you can't say he initiated buy rating at 324 means he approved buying at 360, 400, 450, 500, etc. otherwise there's no point to initiate now anyway, we should just follow his suggestion 11 months ago. If he didn't inititate buy ratings at 360, 400, 450, 500, etc, he shouldn't initiate it now, because AAPL has not changed during the past 1/2 year, he couldn't explain whyy he didn't initiate the buy rating before the recent run-up.

Zaky is nothing but a salesman who happens to love Apple.  He has been right all the way up, and he'll be wrong all the way down, whenever the day comes when Apple is superceded by the next big thing.  I've seen bubbles in plenty of stocks in my relatively few years, and every time, every forum had a favorite prescient amateur analyst who eloquently put forth why the stock had nowhere to go but up.  That person looks brilliant as long as the stock rises, but when it stops, it is revealed that the person can only say "(DELL/INTC/MSFT/ETC) can only go up from here!" and can't handle predicting the downward slide.

Disclosure: long AAPL.  Short ZAKY.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rasimo 


"Our buy ratings are a little different than what one would normally expect in that we give a band where we feel the stock is a “strong buy” and where the stock is a “buy.” We also give a price target. But what we don’t do is publish an ongoing buy rating. Our buy ratings are thus temporary in nature."

Does that explain why Apple wasn't a strong by at 400 before it rose 50% or $200?  Nope.  Typical analyst BS.  Just because Zaky likes to place himself outside the world of "typical" analysts, that's all he is.  He just happens to love Apple more than the others and so he's more bullish on it.  He'll tell you (just ask him) that he's been more accurate than the rest.  It's also true that he's been predictably more optimistic than the rest.  He's just another version of the stopped clock and the blind squirrel.  He just happens to love a stock that has been rising for longer than most.

Quote:

Originally Posted by eksodos 

I don't usually take investment advice from gossip sites but I have to say the evidence is quite compelling here. I'm tempted to put my life savings into AAPL because I can only see upside from here.

For anyone who's ever seen a bubble pop, the above quote should send a chill down your spine.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ko024 

I understand what you are saying but I think he is about timing, and part of that timing is when earning are released and PE is affected.  Lets make it really simply.  If my friend had 10k and wanted to invest in aapl....  If it was a year ago, Zacky would have told my friend that at the 310 level in June, that was a "back the truck up" type level. That is to say, feel free to pour your money in, this is at or near the bottom of the recent sell off and aapl is going higher....  Well it did go higher, it went to 400.. Now, what you are saying is that Zacky should have continued his buy rating then.. I understand your frustration there, but Zacky would argue that during the run up from 400 to 500 to 600, these were not "back the truck up" moments... Now that earning have elapsed, PE has compressed, aapl and the markets have sold off, and now at 530 with a PE of 12.9, aapl is a "back the truck up" buy again.. You are saying, well it would have been better to buy at 400s.. sure, but at those levels and at that time, Zacky was not confident in the immediate bounce upwards and my friend investing the 10k may or may not feel comfortable investing at that moment...  Anyway, the point is, Zacky plays it this way, and he has been correct every time....

As has anyone who bought Apple stock for any reason in the past 10 years.

He's just an Apple lover who likes to throw numbers out.  Don't be fooled into thinking that he'll tell you to sell when it turns.  He'll be denying it all the way down like all fanboys do.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cash907 

Honestly, I'm counting the days until I unload my Apple stock. I don't have much faith in Cook, and when the bottom eventually drops out, it's going to be ugly.

Bogus. You won't find a better CEO on Wall Street. You know that whole profit and immaculate operations process that feeds Apple? That's Tim Cook's leadership at play for over a decade.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cameronj 

For anyone who's ever seen a bubble pop, the above quote should send a chill down your spine.

I don't think you know what a "bubble" implicates. AAPL is trading at what the companies book value will be in 2014, AAPL has OVER 10% of its share price and market cap in cash (cash is accumulating fast). This is the anti-bubble.

Also, Zaky doesn't simply "like a Stock that has 'happened to go up' more than others". AAPL hasn't "happened to go up more than others", and considering the legions of illogical emotionalists who can't see the greatest investment (and VALUE) of our time, Zacky has found the best stock, and called it right (BULLISH).

Quote:

Originally Posted by SpamSandwich 

 

In ten years, we may be trading in "goldbucks" instead.

I already own gold.  Got in at 238/oz.

Quote:

Originally Posted by uguysrnuts 

How not to buy is what I did about a month ago when it was $604. Just do the opposite of what I did and anyone should be golden. ;-)

On one trading forum my username is buywhenisell...

... on yet another it's sellwhenibuy.

Many of us know where you are coming from.

[but I wouldn't despair too much about AAPL @ $604. You may not sleep right on occasion worrying about it but my guess is that you will be happy fairly soon]

Put in a buy order for tomorrow to start scaling in at these levels. Let the manipulators work for YOU! (I sound like a commercial :D)

Quote:

Originally Posted by PCCLONE 

I already own gold.  Got in at 238/oz.

Good move.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cameronj 

For anyone who's ever seen a bubble pop, the above quote should send a chill down your spine.

A person who invests in only one asset is a fool who hasn't experienced painful, costly failure yet.

hmm down to $530, and more anal-ysis from Zacky. You boys shouldn't of bought at $600. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by myapplelove 

hmm down to $530, and more anal-ysis from Zacky. You boys shouldn't of bought at $600. 

Not if they're looking to get out in a short term horizon.

That $600 will look mighty nice when the stock is accelerating right past it. 

Next boost (small) will be release of new Apple MacBooks in June. September or October introduction of a 4G iPhone 5 is much more important, especially since it will be followed by a contract with China Mobile. A smaller (7"?) iPad and possible iTV could help, but I'm not counting on either this year.

Quote:

Originally Posted by drobforever 

 

The problem is, the article is saying as if oh we don't initiate buy ratings often, only when AAPL is incredibly cheap. But the stocks has gone up so much during the past 1/2 year, even with the recent drop, is still a lot more expensive than before. Also, you can't say he initiated buy rating at 324 means he approved buying at 360, 400, 450, 500, etc. otherwise there's no point to initiate now anyway, we should just follow his suggestion 11 months ago. If he didn't inititate buy ratings at 360, 400, 450, 500, etc, he shouldn't initiate it now, because AAPL has not changed during the past 1/2 year, he couldn't explain whyy he didn't initiate the buy rating before the recent run-up.

Excuse me but you make absolutely no sense! If you initiated a buy when he last said, you did exceptionally well. There is NO other consideration! And once again, if you buy now, you will do exceptionally well. The point of the article is that he is the most accurate analyst at calling the bottom. Pay attention and try to keep up....

Quote:

Originally Posted by myapplelove 

hmm down to $530, and more anal-ysis from Zacky. You boys shouldn't of bought at $600. 

And you should "of" paid attention in grade school.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rasimo 


"Our buy ratings are a little different than what one would normally expect in that we give a band where we feel the stock is a “strong buy” and where the stock is a “buy.” We also give a price target. But what we don’t do is publish an ongoing buy rating. Our buy ratings are thus temporary in nature."

No need repeating, he apparently can't read!

Quote:

Originally Posted by drobforever 

 

The question is, why would you buy at 605? Normally for those who bought at 2xx level, they'd have sold most of them, not buy more after it's up more than 200%. Fundamentally, analysts always call AAPL cheap, but it was a lot cheaper at 2xx, 3xx or even 4xx than 605. Technically, it was exploding from 4xx to 6xx, and it's bounded to drop.

 

Anyway, not criticizing here, we all try to learn from our trades.

Dude, please, go away as you obviously have no clue what you are talking about!

Quote:

Originally Posted by ko024 

 

I dont think you understand what is really going on here.  You say "AAPL has not changed".  That is not true.  The most recent earning has placed AAPL at a PE of less than 13 at current share price.  When AAPL was at 530 about two months ago the PE was at 16+.  You see Andy publishes his buy recommendations after the stock has sold off and enters PE multiples as low as 13.  As he stated, this has only happened several times in the past (the most recent one being 11 months ago when apple was trading at a PE of 13 again).  I just want to make it clear that it is not the stock price that matters, but the PE ratio, both trailing and forward, and the point is, according to that measure, aapl is a screaming buy right now...  If you dont understand we can try to explain further...

don't try to put forth rationale arguments as the guy is obviously an idiot...

Apple's fundamentals haven't changed at all. It's just that stocks as a whole aren't an attractive asset class to be parking money in. 

All the arguments I've been hearing about how Apple's growth isn't sustainable sound like saying, "Eventually everything that is born has to die." Don't tell me that Apple's growth will level off. Tell me HOW Apple will level off. Will Apple die of cancer or natural causes?

Quote:

Originally Posted by cameronj 

Does that explain why Apple wasn't a strong by at 400 before it rose 50% or $200?  Nope.  Typical analyst BS.  Just because Zaky likes to place himself outside the world of "typical" analysts, that's all he is.  He just happens to love Apple more than the others and so he's more bullish on it.  He'll tell you (just ask him) that he's been more accurate than the rest.  It's also true that he's been predictably more optimistic than the rest.  He's just another version of the stopped clock and the blind squirrel.  He just happens to love a stock that has been rising for longer than most.

You seem to be as clueless as drobforever....

What about buying ARM instead? Whether iPhone or Android wins, ARM benefits. The upside might be higher?

Quote:

Originally Posted by cameronj 

For anyone who's ever seen a bubble pop, the above quote should send a chill down your spine.

And just what bubble would that be? Almost everyone agrees that AAPL is undervalued based on its P/E, not overvalued. The company is in fine shape and firing on all cylinders. Tim Cook is coming into his own. The only bubble I see is the eternal skepticism by some that AAPL just can't be as good as it seems. Are you one of those who think Apple is an impossible fad that will just blow up and go away any day now? 

Oops, excuse me. I just read some of your earlier posts and that's exactly what you are.

Thanks. I just can't help but be envious of my sister, who loaded up when it was $120.

Quote:

Originally Posted by island hermit 

 

On one trading forum my username is buywhenisell...

 

... on yet another it's sellwhenibuy.

 

Many of us know where you are coming from.

 

[but I wouldn't despair too much about AAPL @ $604. You may not sleep right on occasion worrying about it but my guess is that you will be happy fairly soon]

Quote:

Originally Posted by lkrupp 

 

And just what bubble would that be? Almost everyone agrees that AAPL is undervalued based on its P/E, not overvalued. The company is in fine shape and firing on all cylinders. Tim Cook is coming into his own. The only bubble I see is the eternal skepticism by some that AAPL just can't be as good as it seems. Are you one of those who think Apple is an impossible fad that will just blow up and go away any day now? 

 

Oops, excuse me. I just read some of your earlier posts and that's exactly what you are.

Nope, I'm long Apple.  But I'm not dumb enough to think that there's nothing that can go wrong like some people are.  I guess you didn't read my posts very carefully.

But yes, when investing amateurs like yourself say things like "almost everyone agrees that AAPL is undervalued..." it's a very good sign for more seasoned investors to be wary.  Once the riff raff starts thinking they know how to get rich, you can bet that there aren't many buyers left out there who don't already own too much of the stock.

Quote:

Originally Posted by drobforever 

This guy lost all credibility when he didn't initiate buy rating during the past 11 months, but now.

 

He should've initiated buy ratings long time ago, when the stock was like 400 or even 360.

Its called risk/reward, and he judged the risk/reward to not be in his favor at 400 and 360.  Common sense.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lkrupp 

 

And just what bubble would that be? Almost everyone agrees that AAPL is undervalued based on its P/E, not overvalued. The company is in fine shape and firing on all cylinders. Tim Cook is coming into his own. The only bubble I see is the eternal skepticism by some that AAPL just can't be as good as it seems. Are you one of those who think Apple is an impossible fad that will just blow up and go away any day now? 

 

Oops, excuse me. I just read some of your earlier posts and that's exactly what you are.

Apple is firing on all cylinders, but the question has to be asked about where further exponential growth can come from.  The ipad and iphone are currently doing very well in BRICS countries, and are bringing growth there, but once those markets are saturated, where does apple go from there?  An apple TV would be far lower margin, have less broad-based appeal, longer replacement cycle, and licensing issues all over the place that would prevent it from being as ubiquitous as the iphone/ipad.  Should apple release a yet-lower priced ipad, they will also have an entire range of computing products covering a price range from $200-2000+.  There is not a whole lot of room to grow there unless they introduce yet a new product category.  I'm not saying that they won't, but I do think these are valid reasons for the stock not having a P/E ratio of 50+.

Quote:

Originally Posted by drobforever 

 

The problem is, the article is saying as if oh we don't initiate buy ratings often, only when AAPL is incredibly cheap. But the stocks has gone up so much during the past 1/2 year, even with the recent drop, is still a lot more expensive than before. Also, you can't say he initiated buy rating at 324 means he approved buying at 360, 400, 450, 500, etc. otherwise there's no point to initiate now anyway, we should just follow his suggestion 11 months ago. If he didn't inititate buy ratings at 360, 400, 450, 500, etc, he shouldn't initiate it now, because AAPL has not changed during the past 1/2 year, he couldn't explain whyy he didn't initiate the buy rating before the recent run-up.

so what? we can't go back in time, and we're not at 11 months ago.  he's saying its relatively cheap now for what is known about the stock, and what he considers adequate risk/reward. looking at the left side of the chart is always easy.

Quote:

Originally Posted by cameronj 

Zaky... has been right all the way up, and he'll be wrong all the way down... every forum had a favorite prescient amateur analyst who eloquently put forth why the stock had nowhere to go but up.  That person looks brilliant as long as the stock rises, but when it stops, it is revealed that the person can only say "... up from here!" and can't handle predicting the downward slide.

cameronj said it well. Zaky's analysis is based on little than more than the comparison of historic P/E ratios for AAPL. Such analysis can turn wrong if acceleration of earnings can't be sustained. 

There are fundamental forces at the market that go beyond P/E ratios.

I see iOS fatigue on the horizon. Multiple icons drain your focus. Plus perennially unreliable syncing. Add to that a tiny 3.5” screen and no wonder Angry Birds, which requires rudimentary finger gestures, is the king.

The time is ripe for a mobile device with a bigger screen, a UI that steers your focus toward creating and editing meaningful content rather that distracting you with colorful entertainment icons.

Unless Apple ups its game soon, I see trouble. Competitors, while being at a disadvantage due to non-integrated software and hardware, are not sleeping. 

Quote:

Originally Posted by enature 

Competitors, while being at a disadvantage due to non-integrated software and hardware, are not sleeping. 

Apple aren't either. People seem to underestimate Apple's management team.... the same people who were pivotal parts of getting this company to where they are at.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Godzilla 

 

Apple aren't either. People seem to underestimate Apple's management team.... the same people who were pivotal parts of getting this company to where they are at.

Did you like the part about iOS fatigue?

I thought that was kinda cute.