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Apple television could double US household spending on Apple products

post #1 of 43
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If Apple were to launch a full-fledged television set, it could cause total average annual U.S. household spending on Apple products to double to $888 by 2015, according to a new projection.

Analyst Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley explained in a note to investors this week that Apple's U.S. household spending doubled following the launch of the original iPhone, from $150 per year in 2007 to $295 in 2010. She expects that the iPad will double that spending again, to an average of $635 per household, per year by 2013.

"Given a 97% TV household penetration and a 61% broadband household penetration in the US along with an expected high price (and value) point, an Apple TV is likely to generate a similar increase in average household spend, with some help from iPad and iPhone growth," Huberty wrote.

Her projections call for the average U.S. household with at least $10,000 in disposable income to spend about $888 on Apple products by the year 2015, which would be double the $444 average spent per year in 2011.

If Apple were to take a 10 percent share of global spending on televisions, including hardware, subscriptions and advertising, it would represent $60 billion per year, or an incremental increase of $64 per household, per year globally.

While the initial impact of an Apple television on average household spending would likely be seen mostly in the U.S., Huberty noted that Apple's real growth potential remains outside of the U.S. Ten years ago, Apple generated about 56 percent of its revenue from the U.S., but in its most recent fiscal year, that number fell to 39 percent.

Morgan Stanley


Still, as of last year the average U.S. household spent $444 on Apple products as compared to just $113 for non-U.S. households that have at least $10,000 in disposable income. Huberty noted that in order to hit global household spending on part with U.S. levels today, non-U.S. household spending on Apple products needs to grow 36 percent annually through 2015.

To reach those goals, she believes Apple needs to forge deals with more carrier partners internationally. Huberty noted that 77 percent of carriers in Asia, 78 percent in Eastern Europe, and 88 percent in Africa have no access to the iPhone.

"The combination of new carriers, introduction of a TV, and just our base case assumptions for the remainder of the business build-up to $393 global household spend annually," Huberty wrote. "We assume 10% market share of the global TV market (including hardware, accessories, content, advertising), 40% penetration of addressable (not total) subscribers at major new carriers and regions, low penetration of the remaining subscribers currently with no access to iPhone, and modest growth relative to historical run-rate in current iPhone carriers, iPad, Mac and other businesses."
post #2 of 43

We would all love to get our hands on Apple branded HDTV, tweener iOS devices and a phone only Mae West could love. The question is, what would Apple get out of it?

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post #3 of 43

It's pretty amazing that she can estimate to within $1 accuracy, something 3 years out based on a product that's only a rumor. That is so impressive I think I'll invest my life savings.

post #4 of 43

Ugh. We need a new TV right now!

 

Ship the thing already!

 

Going to shop for a cheapy this weekend to tide us over.

post #5 of 43

Can Apple hit another home run? As much as I love their products, I can not help but wonder...

post #6 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankenSigns.biz View Post

Can Apple hit another home run? As much as I love their products, I can not help but wonder...

 

At the end of the day, it'd be the software, the controls, and the cable carriers that'd determine whether this can be successful. Hardware-wise, it'd be nice but won't be much different from a Samsung/Sharp/LG TV. 

post #7 of 43

Let the electronics giants chase quality up and prices down. All Apple needs to supply is the doo-hickie that attaches to the TV. That way, I can buy the gorgeous 80" monster at Costco vs. the puny 47" or whatever Apple thinks is the sweet spot this year.

 

I like the prior poster's question: What's in it for Apple? This is a content game and Apple can win this by giving us Apps (games) and other cool services linked to the iCloud and iOS devices.

post #8 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

It's pretty amazing that she can estimate to within $1 accuracy, something 3 years out based on a product that's only a rumor. That is so impressive I think I'll invest my life savings.

She has a crystal ball obviously!  Imagine the numbers using the same logic if Apple had a $40,000 iCar!!!! 

 

Off topic a bit but related to new off the wall products Apple 'might' do ...

 

 I just installed the Nest™ which as many here will know is the super intelligent house AC thermostat that was developed by ex Apple folks.  It does make you start to see what Apple thinking can do to products other than computers, phones and tablets.  I am blown away by this thing.  I now start to thinking Apple should have a division for Nest like products.  How about an intelligent oven that talks to the meat thermometer? I wish the smiley faces worked on this new blog!

 

OMG AAPL went up a bit!


Edited by digitalclips - 5/18/12 at 7:17am
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post #9 of 43

I think Apple needs to offer 2 different size TVs. 42-47" and a 50-55" TVs.  And sure, there will be the "Apple" price point.  I think $1299 and $1599 respectively.

post #10 of 43

I'd like AI to run a "2008 retrospective" to put all this crap in context.

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post #11 of 43
I'm with ya!

But seriously, anyone else starting to only hear Charlie Brown adults when analysts speak these days?
post #12 of 43

Re: Drobforever:

Actually, it would be a major improvement from LG, at least. We've a year-old LG HD set, an LG BluRay player, and an HD DirecTV box. I can neither fully control the BluRay from the LG TV controller nor the TV from the BluRay controller. I've managed to get the DTV controller to switch the TV back to the DTV box, but need both the BluRay and the TV controller to shift to BluRay mode. 

 

I can't speak to other major players in the HD market, but could Apple improve on this nonsense? I think they could....

post #13 of 43

I'd home we wouldn't be expected to buy a new set twice as often if we're on the Apple HDTV. Mine is from 2007 and it's still going strong, an SoC from a phone or tablet would be long outdated by now. 

post #14 of 43

The one (Sharp) that makes the 80 inch monster is often mentioned in the same articles as Apple.

post #15 of 43

For $1299 it better make me coffee too lol.gif.  I paid that for a 42" back in 2007.  It still works well, but I'd like to upgrade.  Hopefully whatever they make isn't much of a premium over where the market's currently at.

post #16 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by scades View Post

Re: Drobforever:
Actually, it would be a major improvement from LG, at least. We've a year-old LG HD set, an LG BluRay player, and an HD DirecTV box. I can neither fully control the BluRay from the LG TV controller nor the TV from the BluRay controller. I've managed to get the DTV controller to switch the TV back to the DTV box, but need both the BluRay and the TV controller to shift to BluRay mode. 

I can't speak to other major players in the HD market, but could Apple improve on this nonsense? I think they could....

I don't think they will improve this as I don't believe an Apple HDTV will include a built in Bluray player (they'll expect you to buy movies from iTunes instead) so if you want to watch your existing Bluray movies you will still need a separate player and two remotes.

The real question to whether Apple succeeds is how likely are you to replace your year old TV with a new Apple HDTV (especially if the $99 AppleTV provides the same functionality)?
post #17 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orlando View Post


I don't think they will improve this as I don't believe an Apple HDTV will include a built in Bluray player (they'll expect you to buy movies from iTunes instead) so if you want to watch your existing Bluray movies you will still need a separate player and two remotes.
The real question to whether Apple succeeds is how likely are you to replace your year old TV with a new Apple HDTV (especially if the $99 AppleTV provides the same functionality)?

Built-in Siri function.  AppleTV will probably not include it.

post #18 of 43
I paid ¥40000 (about $500) for my 40" Toshiba Regza. Can't see myself paying much more for a TV. I do have it hooked to an Apple TV.

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post #19 of 43
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Originally Posted by starbird73 View Post

...starting to only hear Charlie Brown adults when analysts speak these days?

 

Wah, wah, wah wah wah?

 

I'm very fond of my many Apple toys, along with my many non-Apple toys, but have a hard time imagining what they can add to a TV that would compel me to purchase. All I can see is the expensive and time consuming nightmare of shipping, stocking and demonstrating such a product. Can you imagine the floor space consumed by this in an Apple store? I'd rather they concentrate more on Macs.

 

But, they do seem to have a knack for pulling rabbits out of hats. Let's hope this one does not have sharp teeth and leap about decapitating people.

post #20 of 43
Well I think that the multiple-remote problem will definitely be solved by Apple including an InfraRed (IR) interceptor chip, and syncing it to a database immediately over the internet.

Basically, as soon as you turn on the TV for the first time as well as all of your assorted devices, Apple will ask if you want to be able to control it from the TV remote, which naturally will sync with the Remote app on your iPod Touch, iPhone or iPad.

And seriously, I don't think this would be all that technically challenging for Apple either.

Just an idea 1smile.gif
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post #21 of 43

All well and good except Katy Huberty, the most clueless of the ignorant AAPL analysts, did the projection. 

post #22 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleZilla View Post

Ugh. We need a new TV right now!

 

Ship the thing already!

 

Going to shop for a cheapy this weekend to tide us over.

 

We need a new DVR before the Olympics.  Of course, the whole DVR concept is nearly obsolete.

The Apple television solution won't need much if any recording capability.  But no, we can't wait that long...

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post #23 of 43

It's stupid to pass judgement on a possible Apple TV knowing nothing about it. Who would have imagined in 2006 what an iPhone would be like? Can you remember the plastic crap phones we were grateful for back then? Most of those manufacturers are now basket cases. There's a LOT TV manufacturers could do to sharpen up their act. I shall be interested to see what becomes of the likes of Sony, Panasonic, LG and Samsung if and when Apple do launch a TV. It seems to me that in this interregnum they are just doing more of the same, and maybe they are marching towards the edge of a cliff, They are such sclerotic bureaucracies that that they are incapable of change.

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post #24 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by FrankenSigns.biz View Post

Can Apple hit another home run? As much as I love their products, I can not help but wonder...

 

This is going to be a tough one.

 

When you look at MP3 players, they were mostly awful before the iPod.

 

When you look at Smartphones, they were mostly awful before the iPhone.

 

When you look at Tablets, they were mostly awful before the iPad.

 

TV's however, there are some pretty stunning displays out there already, and at a good price.  Obviously, there is scope to make the user interface a whole lot better, but from the point of view of the basic technology, it's hard to see where a jump forward is going to come from.


With that said, I wish they would hurry up and release one if they are going to.  Like someone else on the board, my current TV is approaching the end of it's life.......

post #25 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by JollyPaul View Post

 

Wah, wah, wah wah wah?

 

I'm very fond of my many Apple toys, along with my many non-Apple toys, but have a hard time imagining what they can add to a TV that would compel me to purchase. All I can see is the expensive and time consuming nightmare of shipping, stocking and demonstrating such a product. Can you imagine the floor space consumed by this in an Apple store? I'd rather they concentrate more on Macs.

 

But, they do seem to have a knack for pulling rabbits out of hats. Let's hope this one does not have sharp teeth and leap about decapitating people.

It actually might be another Mac.  Think about the possibilities.  They could either dump the guts of an iPad, add a few connections and features to a specific version of iOS for the TV.   Or the guts of essentially a Mac Mini with a modified version of the OS specifically for the TV.  What if they put the capabilities of a iPad or Mac in surfing the internet, running apps, doing DVR functionality, video conferencing, gaming, etc. and the screen kicked arse and it was priced about the same as a fully flown iMac for a 40 inch screen?  It may not have tons of ram or hard drive space, or as fast of a processor, but bundling a lot of features that people normally have lots of different types of external boxes they connect to a TV.  Tivo, game consoles, dvd players, cd players, computers. I think that is where they are going.  This would be sold at specialty stereo/home theater stores, electronics department stores, Apple store that have the show room for it.  All they need to do is sell about 10% to 25% of the Smart TV market place, which the current total was 52 million units in 2011 and projected is 92 million units in 2012, and that number is growing.

post #26 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post

It actually might be another Mac.  Think about the possibilities.  They could either dump the guts of an iPad, add a few connections and features to a specific version of iOS for the TV.   Or the guts of essentially a Mac Mini with a modified version of the OS specifically for the TV.  What if they put the capabilities of a iPad or Mac in surfing the internet, running apps, doing DVR functionality, video conferencing, gaming, etc. and the screen kicked arse and it was priced about the same as a fully flown iMac for a 40 inch screen?  It may not have tons of ram or hard drive space, or as fast of a processor, but bundling a lot of features that people normally have lots of different types of external boxes they connect to a TV.  Tivo, game consoles, dvd players, cd players, computers. I think that is where they are going.  This would be sold at specialty stereo/home theater stores, electronics department stores, Apple store that have the show room for it.  All they need to do is sell about 10% to 25% of the Smart TV market place, which the current total was 52 million units in 2011 and projected is 92 million units in 2012, and that number is growing.

What if they stuck two processors inside, one to do DVR, and one to run apps?  I mean, anything is possible with Apple and this TV.

post #27 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank View Post
What if they stuck two processors inside, one to do DVR, and one to run apps?  I mean, anything is possible with Apple and this TV.

 

You're thinking with your ear pressed up against the side of box, listening to what is outside.

 

You say 'anything is possible', and what you're saying IS 'anything', but it's much closer to 'that which is' than 'that which should be'.

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post #28 of 43

And this is Apple's concept of iWallet - a wallet with contents half-owned by Apple.
 

post #29 of 43

Samsung has already led the way into smart TV. The halo effect from the Samsung Galaxy phones and tablets will increase the sales of more Samsung smart TV. Apple needs to catch up with this big Samsung ecosystem which is maintaining the Android market share lead over Apple IOS.

post #30 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post

And this is Apple's concept of iWallet - a wallet with contents half-owned by Apple.
 

You say that like it is a bad thing. :)

post #31 of 43

What is the point of selling an entirely new TV when Apple can just sell an updated Apple TV with the same capabilities? MORE people would be able to buy a $100 - $150 device versus replacing a TV so why embed this tech in a TV instead of just connecting it via an HDMI cable?

 

Why not instead give us a set-top box with more capabilities right now? WHY don't we have access to more "channels" or apps on our iOS-driven Apple TV? Why did I have to buy a Roku 2 to sit next to my Apple TV to round out the content that my family uses?

post #32 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by SixnaHalfFeet View Post

You say that like it is a bad thing. :)

 

Not at all. It's ... magical.

post #33 of 43

Given a 97% TV household penetration and a 61% broadband household penetration 

 

... holy Toledo! As much of a fan as I might be about Apple products -- I'd have to at least USE one of these mythical Apple TVs before assuming a 97% penetration.

 

Sheesh -- let's not make up for the doomsday rants we endured for years about Apple with hyperbole like this. If Apple only captures 25% of the market in 2 years -- it will be deemed a failure by every anti-Apple blogger.

post #34 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by lamewing View Post

What is the point of selling an entirely new TV when Apple can just sell an updated Apple TV with the same capabilities? MORE people would be able to buy a $100 - $150 device versus replacing a TV so why embed this tech in a TV instead of just connecting it via an HDMI cable?

 

Why not instead give us a set-top box with more capabilities right now? WHY don't we have access to more "channels" or apps on our iOS-driven Apple TV? Why did I have to buy a Roku 2 to sit next to my Apple TV to round out the content that my family uses?

 

Because Apple already sells a $99 device that makes little profit. They want the "value added" on a TV set -- not compete with razor thin margins on a flat panel.

 

The Apple TV will have best of class quality, and it will accomplish things that a lot of technology challenged home users are going to think Apple invented -- because they've never been able to do them before. A lot of critics say that Apple fanboiys think Apple invented everything -- when that's really the case with NEW USERS. Sure, those Android phones could do X, Y and Z if you turned the right screw -- but the CONSUMERS don't know that until it's accessible.

 

 

Apple is creating the Full Widget because they they can control the experience and charge higher margins. What else is new?

post #35 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by scades View Post

Re: Drobforever:

Actually, it would be a major improvement from LG, at least. We've a year-old LG HD set, an LG BluRay player, and an HD DirecTV box. I can neither fully control the BluRay from the LG TV controller nor the TV from the BluRay controller. I've managed to get the DTV controller to switch the TV back to the DTV box, but need both the BluRay and the TV controller to shift to BluRay mode. 

 

I can't speak to other major players in the HD market, but could Apple improve on this nonsense? I think they could....

 

Purchase a universal remote, Logitech and Philips have some nice models

post #36 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fake_William_Shatner View Post
Because Apple already sells a $99 device that makes little profit.

 

Do you know that?

 

Quote:
 They want the "value added" on a TV set -- not compete with razor thin margins on a flat panel.

 

So they don't want to waste their time in a market where they will make no money… by wasting their time in a market where they will make no money?

 

Quote:

The Apple TV will have best of class quality, and it will accomplish things that a lot of technology challenged home users are going to think Apple invented — because they've never been able to do them before.

 

It already does. So what's the point of forcing people to spend unnecessarily more for a panel they don't want?

Originally Posted by Marvin

The only thing more insecure than Android’s OS is its userbase.
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post #37 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by peter236 View Post

Samsung has already led the way into smart TV. The halo effect from the Samsung Galaxy phones and tablets will increase the sales of more Samsung smart TV. Apple needs to catch up with this big Samsung ecosystem which is maintaining the Android market share lead over Apple IOS.

what an idiotic statement. Samsung is just a player no different than any other cheap ass tv manufacturer is. There is nothing special about their tv's.  Ecosystem? what the **** are you on? please dont make yourself out to be such a fool with stupid ass statements. samsung tv's In fact they are junk based on my experience. I have the last samsung tv I will ever own, a 42inch lcd and it has to be restarted almost every time I change its channel because the sound goes out. its a 3 year old tv... Neighbor has similar problems with their samsung tv too. they are cheap ass crap made for people that don't know any better. My neighbor and i have learned our lesson well and wont make the same mistake ever again **** SAMSUNG JUNK!!! my neighbor also has a junk samsung shitdroid phone he can't wait to dump. He will get an iPhone, as he puts it "the real thing

To summarize, if you are going to say stupid things, others will think you are stupid.

post #38 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfanning View Post

 

Purchase a universal remote, Logitech and Philips have some nice models

 

While this is one solution, depending on the brand(s) of the devices in question, it's not always an optimal solution. A friend of mine has a fairly nice home entertainment and gaming system in his den. And the so called "universal remote" he uses to control it looks more like something from NASA's mission control. There are, IMO, still way too many buttons for the average person to even understand what they're looking at, short of taking a class... which he offers for anyone who stays over for the weekend.

 

Whether Apple actually produces a TV or not, if they continue to play with the concept, I hope the working title of the project is iKISS (Keep It Simple Stupid).

 

Ideally (in my mind) a user should be able to simply say, "replay Formula One race from Bahrain", and within a few seconds I'd be watching the race. Or "play Identity", and it would fetch that movie from iTunes or where ever. And if I had "I, Claudius" loaded in the DVD, I could request that it play that series. And the same basic requests could be made for video games, etc. In addition to better than average picture quality, if the device could simplify the process(es) we now have to go through, IMO, that alone would indeed make it magical.


Edited by Jag_Warrior - 5/19/12 at 1:27pm
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post #39 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jag_Warrior View Post

 

While this is one solution, depending on the brand(s) of the devices in question, it's not always an optimal solution. A friend of mine has a fairly nice home entertainment and gaming system in his den. And the so called "universal remote" he uses to control it looks more like something from NASA's mission control. There are, IMO, still way too many buttons for the average person to even understand what they're looking at, short of taking a class... which he offers for anyone who stays over for the weekend.

 

In that case he has have purchased a universal remote that fitted his purposes.  The Logitech one I have is simple, there isn't a lot of buttons, and in the majority of the time you use the same button to perform the same function when controlling different devices.

post #40 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by ascii View Post

It's pretty amazing that she can estimate to within $1 accuracy, something 3 years out based on a product that's only a rumor. That is so impressive I think I'll invest my life savings.

 

Ranked 54 out of 57 analysts...

 

"Otherwise the bottom of the list was populated by pros who seem to have missed those photographs of Chinese iPhone buyers mobbing the Beijing Apple Store. How else could Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore, ISI's Brian Marshall and Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty have submitted iPhone sales estimates of 26, 26 and 30 million units, respectively?"

 

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/tag/katy-huberty/

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