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RBC expects new MacBooks in late Q2, next-gen iPhone in Sept., Oct.

post #1 of 19
Thread Starter 
RBC Capital Markets expressed belief on Tuesday that Apple will revamp its MacBook portables later this quarter and release a new iPhone in September or October.

In a note to investors, analyst Amit Daryanani issued predictions that largely echoed prevailing expectations for Apple's near-term plans. Both the suggested June release of new MacBooks and the fall launch of the iPhone fit with reports from other analysts and news outlets.

The investment bank reiterated its Outperform rating and a $700 price target for shares of Apple. The firm believes the Cupertino, Calif., company stock could hit $700 within the next 6-12 months, citing new MacBooks, an upcoming iPhone and a potential "iTV" connected television as catalysts. He also pointed to projected sustained momentum for sales of the new iPad through the "June quarter and beyond" as another factor that will support Apple's growth.

Daryanani highlighted the iPhone as the company's "flagship product" and noted that sales of the device represented 43 percent of Apple's revenue in fiscal 2011. The high margins that the company enjoys with the iPhone should prop up its gross margins if the smartphone continues to grow market share.

RBC cautioned that Apple's apparent two-year design cycle could cause "increased seasonality" as consumers catch on to it and hold off on purchases. For instance, the company saw just 21 percent growth in iPhone shipments year over year in the fourth quarter of 2011, compared to 91 percent growth in Q4 2010.

"In our view, a redesigned version of the iPhone every two years will likely result in higher unit sales relative to the iPhone ?S? versions as carrier contracts last roughly 2 years and consumers have historically been attracted to the new design concepts created by Apple," he wrote.

The analyst believes the next-generation iPhone will come equipped with "the latest 4G/LTE technology" that will likely be paired with redesigned look. He expects Apple to make the device available during the "late summer/early fall time frame."

Last year, RBC analyst Mike Abramsky narrowly misjudged the iPhone 4S release. He told investors last August that Apple was likely to release its new iPhone in the September quarter, rather than in October as other reports had suggested.

RBC Capital Markets - iPhone projections


Ahead of a new iPhone, RBC expects a MacBook Pro update to arrive as early as next month. The analyst also mentioned the likelihood of an "updated version" of the MacBook Air in the next 6 months.

Apple is believed to have been waiting for Intel to ramp up its new generation of Ivy Bridge processors before releasing new MacBook Pros. The last major revision to the product line came in February 2011, though the notebooks did get a modest speed boost last October.

Of the company's Mac offerings, RBC is "most impressed" by Apple's MacBook Air line, Daryanani noted. The firm believes the entire Mac lineup will grow 10-15 percent on an annual basis, though it expects portables to continue to outsell their desktop counterparts. His current projections for fiscal 20123 are 24.2 million Mac units, comprised of 5.4 million desktops and 13.9 million portables.

As for a possible Apple television, the analyst said that such a device would make "strategic sense" for the company as it could help increase the "stickiness" of other Apple products. Standout features that the firm expects the "iTV" to have include Siri voice control, a multi-function remote, Retina Display, FaceTime and "seamless syncing" with other services and products.

Samsung, LG and Sony would represent the main incumbents that Apple would compete against in the television market, according to the analyst. He did, however, express concern that adding a TV to its product lineup might "act as a drag" on Apple's margins. The firm believes Apple's margins for a connected TV could be as low as 15 percent.

Modeling for the first 12 months after release of the rumored television, RBC expects Apple will sell 10 million units over the period, amounting to an estimated $15 billion in revenue and $1.77 in earnings per share.
post #2 of 19

'Ramp up' is getting a boring phase now, lost it's dramatic-ness.

post #3 of 19

I predict there'll be new products by Apple by the end of the year. I'd even go as far as saying they will release new products next year too.

post #4 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post

I predict there'll be new products by Apple by the end of the year. I'd even go as far as saying they will release new products next year too.

 

I disagree. Why should Apple update their products? The Mac Pro is from 2010 and that's sailing smoothly. I mean, who cares if it's Ivy Bridge or Sandy Bridge?
post #5 of 19

i too think that Apple are likely to release new products in , or around, the usual time they have issued new poducts in the past. If not, they will issue them at slightly different times to last year.

I would reckon that if Apple continue to grow at their recent pace, then their share price will go up, but if their market share and profits contract then there is the possibility of the share going down.

 

However, even though I am putting my neck on the line here, I also predict that other companies world-wide, will also release new versions of their products at some stage in the future.

 

For anybody who runs a news site, you can copy and paste this ground breaking prediction and issue a new story on it each week, and feel free to quote me as a source. I am an expert in the industry. I swear. I have very "reliable" sources, who have revealed all this to me , exclusively.

 

Can I have my consultancy fee now?

 

Lastly, my predication is that AppleInsider will most likely run a story almost identical to this very regularly until the launch of these proudcts and then link back to one of the earlier stories to prove their "prediction" was right, most likely with the line "As first reported by" .....

 

 

Must go kick a kitten...

post #6 of 19
wow more expert anal-ysis...impressive...
post #7 of 19

You are right as long as it works .
 

post #8 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

RBC Capital Markets - iPhone projections

Cool. So Apple is going to sell 50 BILLION iPhones in the Christmas quarter? And the average price will be under a dollar?

I'm not sure how much faith to put into a projection from a company which doesn't know the difference between millions and billions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Strawberry View Post

I predict there'll be new products by Apple by the end of the year. I'd even go as far as saying they will release new products next year too.

Well said.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CGJ View Post

I disagree. Why should Apple update their products? The Mac Pro is from 2010 and that's sailing smoothly. I mean, who cares if it's Ivy Bridge or Sandy Bridge?

Actually, I don't think the current Mac Pro is either. The current Mac Pro is Westmere, IIRC.
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"I'm way over my head when it comes to technical issues like this"
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post #9 of 19

Correct.  Westmere is a die shrink of Nehalem.  Sandy Bridge Xeons were just released in March.

 

EDIT: I also think it's really funny to say late 2Q.  We're in the last 3 days of May.  June is the end of 2Q.  If it's this quarter, when else could it be?! 


Edited by SSquirrel - 5/29/12 at 5:59am
post #10 of 19
Wow. This guy is really sticking his neck out.

/s
post #11 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by DarenDino View Post

'Ramp up' is getting a boring phase now, lost it's dramatic-ness.

Dramatic-ness? Do you mean "drama?" ;-)

post #12 of 19
To me what he's trying to do is overinflate the stock price and then tell everyone when to sell, so when the price falls, others can swoop in and buy it up again. Trying to do persuade the market when to buy hot stocks. That's only my opinion but it usually seems to happen that way. Personally, I think the current price is still overinflated.

Thinking very conservatively, to remain successful, a company has to sustain long-term growth with low % profits. That's was pretty much SJ's main goal with apple financially. He wanted the company to have the longevity of an IBM or HP does. He wanted a legacy. What happened in reality (IMO) was he knew his time on earth was shortened by at least 20 years, so he had to speed things up, I think that's why apple's stock went ballistic. He had a finite amount of time to see his vision realized and it just so happened technology could accommodate this. So he ramped up timeframes on products.

Never before (this is debatable) has a company released so many new products in such a short period of time with this much success as Apple has. Let's clarify that by starting with the first iPhone in 2007. You had the MB Air, Apple TV, iPhone, iPod touch and the iPad in as little as 5 years. And even then the last there there had major revamps every other year it seems. You didn't see these kinds of overhauls annually from any other major tech company prior to that. Maybe it was every 2-3 years you'd see Dell or HP come out with major overhauls, but nothing like this. I start at 2007 because I felt that the iMac and the iPod had very natural progression of evolution. Just look at the stock values between 2001 and today and you'll see what I mean.

[=http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AAPL&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=][/]
Edit: add to that the fact that Apple's stock has risen "570%" since the launch of the iPhone in 2007.
[=http://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/apples-new-products-do-stock-prices-and-estimates-surge-547400889][/]

The sad reality is that his "grand project" (so to speak) is almost complete. Of what we (the general public) know that's left...he stated in the biography: re-imagine photography, re-invent textbooks and re-invent the Living room (TV)...then what? There was that rumor of the his pipe-dream to re-invent the car, but unless he had some great design sessions with Ive (& suppliers) spanning many years, i doubt the end product will be anything with Jobs' mark on it. Then what? We'll have just annual updates and nothing else to show but a severally inflated stock value? Now I'm not saying this could happen in the next 5 years, but it will happen eventually. The real test will be then.

Yes, I know, technology is evolving faster every year so some of my points could be mute, but to me it just seems it's going way way faster than it probably should to sustain long-term growth. And analysts like this guy could frankly care less about long-term growth, which (IMO) is what got this country into the 2008 mess that it's currently try to gt out of.

Fortunately I'm pretty confident that Apple has it all under control, if they've learned anything from the 2nd Jobs years, hopefully the idea of legacy will stick.

Just my thoughts, I could be way off base, but that's my perspective.
Edited by antkm1 - 5/29/12 at 7:13am
post #13 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Wow. This guy is really sticking his neck out.
/s

 

You are being sarcastic but this is a guy that is actually doing the wise thing. He's not claiming that Apple's Sept/Oct release of the iPhone was a fluke but going to the very possibly correct notion that it is a standing shift to be followed for the foreseeable future. He is pairing the computers, or at least notebooks, with the start of Back to School. BUT NOT making while claims about the specs. Or even claiming they will announce at WWDC. He seems to be following the notion that Apple is taking that event back to the software and any hardware release is secondary. Wise since that is how it could be. 

 

His $700 stock value prediction is tame but far more likely especially since he gives 12 months for it. He mentioned the whole 'iTV' because he'd be seen as stupid not to, but he doesn't paint it as a sure thing. And he buries the lead on what it could have feature wise. He makes note of how each iPhone seems more aimed at the folks that bought 2 years ago not last year (something I have also noted a few times in different threads) with a tone of 'don't panic' over the idea that sales might not soar up each after year as folks are waiting. He doesn't mention that some carriers are dropping the mid cycle upgrade and that will also affect sales 

 

Boring but for once an analyst that seems to be using his head for something other than holding his hat and his bluetooth. 

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #14 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Wow. This guy is really sticking his neck out.
/s

He is likely one of those beasts without a neck!

It is a shame that such obvious comments kept people employed. There is a lot of waste in our economy.
post #15 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

You are being sarcastic but this is a guy that is actually doing the wise thing. He's not claiming ...

I agree, except for the statement that the iTV will have a Retina Display. I haven't read of any manufacturer who makes them that large.
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post #16 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post
I agree, except for the statement that the iTV will have a Retina Display. I haven't read of any manufacturer who makes them that large.

 

Super Hi-Vision panels exist, but only at 80" and larger, and they start at $100,000.

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
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Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone] exists, it doesn’t deserve to.
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post #17 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post

I agree, except for the statement that the iTV will have a Retina Display. I haven't read of any manufacturer who makes them that large.

Most HDTVs are likely already being viewed with Retina Display quality with a baseline of 20/20 vision.

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post #18 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post

I agree, except for the statement that the iTV will have a Retina Display. I haven't read of any manufacturer who makes them that large.

A 1080p movie on a 50" screen is about 92% "retina" already when viewed at a distance of 6'. Read this to find out why, [=http://www.tuaw.com/2012/03/01/retina-display-macs-ipads-and-hidpi-doing-the-math/][/]

Super high vision need not apply to the naked eye...its all about perception at normal viewing distances. You're never going to benefit from it. But I'm sure it'll be the industry's way to make us buy all our old movies on an "updated" format :P
post #19 of 19
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


Actually, I don't think the current Mac Pro is either. The current Mac Pro is Westmere, IIRC.

The quads are based on the original Nehalem process. They're just updates of the 2009 models. The 6, 8, and 12 core are Westmere. Intel didn't release a complete Westmere revision. Some other brands did use the E5620 Xeons for their lower end quad workstations instead of the W3530. I'm not sure that they were actually faster though. They cost a little more, and they are dual socket compliant. The lower clock speed (2.4 instead of 2.8) probably eats the majority of the benefit there, and none of the benchmarking sites really suggest much of an advantage in the 2.4. The W3530 was basically a direct replacement for the W3520 which was clocked at 2.66 instead of 2.8. 

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