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Apple iPad accounts for nearly two out of every three tablet shipments

post #1 of 37
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Apple owned the lion's share of the worldwide tablet market in the first quarter of 2012 after shipping 11.8 million units, 11 times more than second place Samsung managed over the same period.

According to analysis from ABI research released on Monday, strong interest in Apple's third-generation iPad helped the company maintain a nearly 65 percent share of the tablet sector which grew to 18.2 million worldwide shipments by the end of the first quarter.

Samsung shipped 1.1 million tablets during the first three months of 2012, returning to the South Korean giant to the number two spot and displacing Amazon's Kindle which saw sales peter out after enjoying a strong holiday quarter.

?A pattern similar to smartphones is also occurring in tablets,? said Jeff Orr, group director of consumer research at ABI. ?Apple and Samsung have demonstrated staying power while other tablet vendors ebb and flow like the tide.?

Apple managed to hold a majority of shipments after the company released a Retina Display-sporting model and dropped the price of the held over iPad 2 in March. Since the iPhone maker first introduced its tablet in 2010 over 67 million units have shipped worldwide.

Despite shipping more than 8 times as many 3G-enabled units than its nearest competitor, Apple can't claim the crown of having the most mobile broadband users as iPad owners seem content to stay on Wi-Fi. It is unclear what is driving this statistic, but some assume that wireless carrier plan pricing may be a factor.

Overall, the worldwide tablet was hit with a 33 percent sequential loss in shipments from the fourth quarter of 2011, though a year-over-year analysis showed a 185 percent gain for the sector. Of the major brand-name OEMs only RIM and Lenovo managed quarter-to-quarter increases with 233 percent and 107 percent, respectively.

A number of manufacturers like Dell, HP and LG are readying Android 4.0 products for mid-year launches that are expected to fight over market share with upcoming tablets running on Microsoft's new Windows 8 platform.

Apple recently received a green light to sell the iPad in China which is likely to boost sales substantially. The company is also rumored to be preparing a smaller 7-inch version of the device later this year.
post #2 of 37
Quote:
A number of manufacturers like Dell, HP and LG are readying Android 4.0 products for mid-year launches that are expected to fight over market share with upcoming tablets running on Microsoft's new Windows 8 platform.

It's great to see companies getting ready to launch Android OS 4.0 now that it's getting close to being a year old. Andorid OS 4.x still only accounts for 7% of all devices while Android OS 2.x still accounts for 90%. That's worse numbers than when outmoded versions of IE were still reigning.

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post #3 of 37

That's shipped.

 

We saw that the iPad made up 95% of tablet web traffic, didn't we? Well, now.


Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post
…getting ready to launch Android OS 4.0 now that it's getting close to being a year old.

 

It's hilarious. Is Google embarrassed about that? I would imagine anyone would be embarrassed about adoption numbers this low. 

 

android-platform-pie.png

post #4 of 37
How they know how many tablets Samsung shipped, as they don't give those numbers out, is beyond me.

The other problem, of course, is the shipped vs the sold numbers that Apple releases.

But it's more than that. Apple also gives us the number of days, or weeks, supply in the channel. When you add that number to the number sold, you have the number shipped. But no one uses that number from Apple. They just take the sold number and compare it to the shipped numbers of other manufacturers, using guesses for a couple of them as well (Amazon, Samsung).
post #5 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post
The other problem, of course, is the shipped vs the sold numbers that Apple releases.
But it's more than that. Apple also gives us the number of days, or weeks, supply in the channel. When you add that number to the number sold, you have the number shipped. But no one uses that number from Apple.

 

I'm curious: what is the ratio of sold/shipped for Apple? And how do these numbers correlate with the number of devices in use?

post #6 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

It's great to see companies getting ready to launch Android OS 4.0 now that it's getting close to being a year old. ...

 

I think the Ice Cream Sandwich melted before it could be served.

post #7 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

I'm curious: what is the ratio of sold/shipped for Apple?

Over a long enough time frame, the ratio is 1:1 - since virtually every thing Apple makes is sold.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

And how do these numbers correlate with the number of devices in use?

It's not something you can easily figure out from published information because it depends on how long people use their systems. As a very rough estimate, make your best estimate of the average lifetime of the Apple product. Take the average number sold per quarter during that time frame and multiply.
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post #8 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

I'm curious: what is the ratio of sold/shipped for Apple? And how do these numbers correlate with the number of devices in use?

The sold/shipped ratio for Apple (iPads) is very close to 1:1.  Mainly due to the fact that it's been almost impossible to get hold of an iPad by just walking into a store.

post #9 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

I'm curious: what is the ratio of sold/shipped for Apple? And how do these numbers correlate with the number of devices in use?

Horace had a good article last week.

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post #10 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post
Over a long enough time frame, the ratio is 1:1 - since virtually every thing Apple makes is sold.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tawilson View Post
The sold/shipped ratio for Apple (iPads) is very close to 1:1.  Mainly due to the fact that it's been almost impossible to get hold of an iPad by just walking into a store.

 

You say that, but I've seen cases full of iPads at Best Buy, with no lines and no active unloading for sales. The same would go for their computers, I'd wager, but on a longer timeframe and in a smaller scale… 

post #11 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

I'm curious: what is the ratio of sold/shipped for Apple? And how do these numbers correlate with the number of devices in use?

Quarter to quarter, Apple gives various times for in channel supply. I don't remember the exact number given last quarter, but it's around 10 days. In order to do this correctly, I'd have to go and look up the numbers, as the selling period wasn't 90 days.

But making some assumptions for the sake of the discussion, if there was 10 days in channel and Apple had a 90 day selling period, we would take the 11.5 million and decide it by 90, then multiply it by the number of days in channel, in this case 10. Then add that to the sold number, and you get the shipped number. In this hypothetical case, it would be 12,650,000.

As for iPhones last quarter, I believe Apple said two weeks of in channel. I. Luld be wrong in that, but it's a number that comes to mind. If its correct, we get a sold number of 35.1 million, and a shipped number of 40,146,000
post #12 of 37

Who cares about unites shipped?

 

Meaningless benchmark.

post #13 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Over a long enough time frame, the ratio is 1:1 - since virtually every thing Apple makes is sold.
It's not something you can easily figure out from published information because it depends on how long people use their systems. As a very rough estimate, make your best estimate of the average lifetime of the Apple product. Take the average number sold per quarter during that time frame and multiply.

Of course, that's correct, but we see these numbers as a quarterly presentation.
post #14 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by tawilson View Post

The sold/shipped ratio for Apple (iPads) is very close to 1:1.  Mainly due to the fact that it's been almost impossible to get hold of an iPad by just walking into a store.

There is always product in channel. The question is how much. Apple tries for several weeks, usually between 4 and 6 weeks. But on very hot products, particularly for the first half of their full priced life, they can't meet that ideal. A week is the least I've ever heard them state in their quarterly conference call.
post #15 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Horace had a good article last week.

He's always had some of the best analysis.
post #16 of 37
Stunning just stunning adoption of iPad. I'm so proud to have joined the Apple family of products.
post #17 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


Horace had a good article last week.

Thanks for that Soli.

 

So according to Horace at Asymco, both Samsung and Apple had approximately the same percentage of units "shipped but not sold", only a couple of percent difference. That's helpful in understanding where the players rate.

http://www.asymco.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Screen-Shot-2012-05-28-at-5-28-1.10.17-PM.png

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post #18 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

Quote:
A number of manufacturers like Dell, HP and LG are readying Android 4.0 products for mid-year launches that are expected to fight over market share with upcoming tablets running on Microsoft's new Windows 8 platform.
It's great to see companies getting ready to launch Android OS 4.0 now that it's getting close to being a year old. Andorid OS 4.x still only accounts for 7% of all devices while Android OS 2.x still accounts for 90%. That's worse numbers than when outmoded versions of IE were still reigning.


That's strangely reminiscent of the XP scenario. There seems to be something about the non Apple market that likes to cling to legacy software.
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post #19 of 37
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Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

Thanks for that Soli.

So according to Horace at Asymco, both Samsung and Apple had approximately the same percentage of units "shipped but not sold", only a couple of percent difference. That's helpful in understanding where the players rate.
http://www.asymco.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Screen-Shot-2012-05-28-at-5-28-1.10.17-PM.png

What's also interesting to note is that the companies whose sales and marketshare is falling seem to have zero to negative inventory as a result of cutting back severely in production. This is unusual.

Except for poor RIM. They don't seem to be able to get things together. Their channel build out is much greater than their sales drop. As a result, they've declared another write off. This time for a billion bucks! So in less than a year, they've declared $485 million for Playbooks, $290 million for BB phones, And now $1 billion for more BB phones. Terrible for such a small company. I wonder if they will have another Playbook write down anytime soon.

The problem for Samsung though is that the numbers aren't real, they're guesses as Samsung doesn't release these numbers.
post #20 of 37
I would suggest RIM is close to the tipping point where the negative perception is retarding sales to the point of extinction.
I would be highly surprised if RIM lasts 2 more years.
post #21 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

You say that, but I've seen cases full of iPads at Best Buy, with no lines and no active unloading for sales. The same would go for their computers, I'd wager, but on a longer timeframe and in a smaller scale… 

True... but a week later there could still be a case full of iPads... but they would be different iPads. Doesn't Apple turn over its inventory, on average, about once a week?

Who knows how many iPads are in the case at Best Buy... but a Best Buy store is open for 11 hours every day. I bet a couple iPads leave the store with a new owner, on average, every single day. With 130,000 iPads sold worldwide every day... a couple iPads from each Best Buy every day is certainly attainable.

The bring this back around... I do believe the iPad shipping/sales ratio is 1:1. I've never heard of a store that had to send an iPad back to Apple because they couldn't sell it.

I can't imagine a single iPad sitting on the shelf for longer than a week. In other words... I don't think a case full of iPads is bad.
post #22 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

You say that, but I've seen cases full of iPads at Best Buy, with no lines and no active unloading for sales. The same would go for their computers, I'd wager, but on a longer timeframe and in a smaller scale… 

 

Apple has reported it replenishes its entire product lines every 5 business days. So 4 times a month or 48 times a year they replenish their entire supply shipments. Yet, you're worried what Best Buy ships?

 

In three years from now, Best Buy, most likely won't exist.

post #23 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post
In three years from now, Best Buy, most likely won't exist.

 

Don't get my hopes up like that.

post #24 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

That's shipped.

We saw that the iPad made up 95% of tablet web traffic, didn't we? Well, now.

I was thinking about the same thing. Samsung etc love to tell about how many they shipped, but what about sales. How many of those units a in consumer hands and stay there past the 14-30 day return window.

You can say you shipped 100 million units but that isn't so impressive if only 20 million sold and 19 million were returned within two weeks. Versus say another company that shipped 20 million. Sold all of them and only half a million were returned, 90% of that to get a better model of the same product

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post #25 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

How they know how many tablets Samsung shipped, as they don't give those numbers out,

No, Samsung happily gives out shipped numbers. They don't tell sales

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post #26 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

You say that, but I've seen cases full of iPads at Best Buy, with no lines and no active unloading for sales. The same would go for their computers, I'd wager, but on a longer timeframe and in a smaller scale… 

1. Apple's channel inventory is reported quarterly - and hasn't changed all that much.
2. Apple hasn't had a write down for unsold merchandise for at least a decade.
3. Apple's average inventory turn figure is 5 days.

Given those facts, shipments are not significantly different than sales for Apple.
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post #27 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

That's shipped.

 

We saw that the iPad made up 95% of tablet web traffic, didn't we? Well, now.


 

It's hilarious. Is Google embarrassed about that? I would imagine anyone would be embarrassed about adoption numbers this low. 

 

android-platform-pie.png

 

And there lies one of the issues I have with Android - I have no idea what the benefits or otherwise are of the different versions.

 

What I do find truly bizarre is the fact that I could walk into a store tomorrow and buy a brand new Android phone, that not only doesn't have the latest version of OS on it, but possibly can't even run the latest version.


At least with Apple I know that when I buy something brand new, it will be running the latest and greatest software, even if the hardware isn't the best possible (i.e. I can still buy the iPhone 4 instead of the 4S).

post #28 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


1. Apple's channel inventory is reported quarterly - and hasn't changed all that much.
2. Apple hasn't had a write down for unsold merchandise for at least a decade.
3. Apple's average inventory turn figure is 5 days.
Given those facts, shipments are not significantly different than sales for Apple.

 

Those facts are a real testament to Tim Cooks skills.  Remember the fiasco Apples inventory used to be before he joined them.......

post #29 of 37

As others have already pointed out, why is AI not doing a better job putting the shipped vs sold notion into focus. That should be seen in the headline or within the first paragraph. It's a very important difference.

post #30 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson View Post

 

And there lies one of the issues I have with Android - I have no idea what the benefits or otherwise are of the different versions.

 

What I do find truly bizarre is the fact that I could walk into a store tomorrow and buy a brand new Android phone, that not only doesn't have the latest version of OS on it, but possibly can't even run the latest version.


At least with Apple I know that when I buy something brand new, it will be running the latest and greatest software, even if the hardware isn't the best possible (i.e. I can still buy the iPhone 4 instead of the 4S).

 

The irony is that fAndroids use software upgrades as an argument against Apple iPhone since older hardware versions don't get all the features whereas Android-based smartphones don't receive the latest software upgrades as a general rule.  Cognitive Dissonance (aka "Reality Distortion Field?")

post #31 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson View Post

And there lies one of the issues I have with Android - I have no idea what the benefits or otherwise are of the different versions.

What I do find truly bizarre is the fact that I could walk into a store tomorrow and buy a brand new Android phone, that not only doesn't have the latest version of OS on it, but possibly can't even run the latest version.


At least with Apple I know that when I buy something brand new, it will be running the latest and greatest software, even if the hardware isn't the best possible (i.e. I can still buy the iPhone 4 instead of the 4S).

It's even worse than what you've highlighted. There's a strong 'bait and switch' component to all of it.

Android advocates insist that google is frequently updating Android and that many existing phones will run the latest version. What they fail to tell you is that even if the phone is technically capable of running the next version of Android, the carriers will almost certainly not make it available.

My daughter's phone met the minimum specs for something like 3 more versions of Android than the one on the phone - yet no upgrade was ever available. That's far too common.
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post #32 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post

 

Apple has reported it replenishes its entire product lines every 5 business days.

 

 

 

I believe that was just in their stores. 3rd party might be more like every 10-15 days. That still isn't that bad though. 

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post #33 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by Patranus View Post

Who cares about unites shipped?

 

Meaningless benchmark.

Heh heh. That just about says it all. Irrelevant metric.

post #34 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

I believe that was just in their stores. 3rd party might be more like every 10-15 days. That still isn't that bad though.

No. The number is for Apple's total inventory turns - for everything they make and sell. After it's sold, it's no longer Apple's inventory - it's a sale.

Now, it's conceivable that some retailers might order more than they need and have excess units on the floor, but there's no evidence for that - and it's irrelevant unless the units are returned to Apple (which apparently isn't happening or it would appear on their 10K and 10Q forms).
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post #35 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post

Android advocates insist that google is frequently updating Android and that many existing phones will run the latest version. What they fail to tell you is that even if the phone is technically capable of running the next version of Android, the carriers will almost certainly not make it available.

My daughter's phone met the minimum specs for something like 3 more versions of Android than the one on the phone - yet no upgrade was ever available. That's far too common.

I'm guessing there are a couple reasons for this.

The Android OEMs only make money from the initial sale of the phone... so why would they spend a bunch of time, effort and money to make software updates for an older phone? Especially for 2 years or more?

I know it would make you happy if your daughter's phone could get updates... but it wouldn't make them any more money. So I guess that's why they don't even bother.

Plus... each manufacturer could have a dozen phones on the market at any given moment... with a few new phones released every quarter. That's a lot of phones to keep updated... phones that will never earn them another dime after that initial sale.

And... the very nature of Android is that it's available from many manufacturers. If you have an HTC phone now... there's no guarantee that you'll buy another HTC phone next time. It's the same sorta thing that happens with PCs... you could have an HP now and buy a Dell next time. There's nothing really holding you to any particular brand.

You'd think the Android OEMs would do everything possible to keep customers happy so they will buy their phones again... since they only make money from the initial sale of the phone.

So I think we've found the conclusion:

They'd rather just sell you a new phone... rather than keep your current phone updated.
post #36 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by tawilson View Post

The sold/shipped ratio for Apple (iPads) is very close to 1:1.  Mainly due to the fact that it's been almost impossible to get hold of an iPad by just walking into a store.

It must be different where you live. Every Apple store has them in stock here. Best Buy has them. I'm not sure about Target. 

 

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

 

You say that, but I've seen cases full of iPads at Best Buy, with no lines and no active unloading for sales. The same would go for their computers, I'd wager, but on a longer timeframe and in a smaller scale… 

I'm not sure about full cases here, but they were not approaching sold out status. If you wanted one, you could buy one, which has the pleasing side effect of discouraging scalpers.

 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


It's even worse than what you've highlighted. There's a strong 'bait and switch' component to all of it.
Android advocates insist that google is frequently updating Android and that many existing phones will run the latest version. What they fail to tell you is that even if the phone is technically capable of running the next version of Android, the carriers will almost certainly not make it available.
My daughter's phone met the minimum specs for something like 3 more versions of Android than the one on the phone - yet no upgrade was ever available. That's far too common.

Assuming your daughter isn't an adult and making her own purchases, I'm surprised she has an an Android. Personally I would have switched to an iphone long ago if I didn't hate AT&T. I dislike changing carriers when my current coverage has been fine, and they've never messed up my billing.

post #37 of 37
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post

I'm curious: what is the ratio of sold/shipped for Apple? And how do these numbers correlate with the number of devices in use?

When you look at the fact that Apple turns inventory every 5 days, you can pretty much. Punt on all of them being in the sold category.
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