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Demand for Kindle Fire collapses as Apple's iPad continues to dominate

post #1 of 62
Thread Starter 
A new survey of potential tablet buyers has found that the Amazon Kindle Fire is "floundering," while Apple's iPad remains the most popular and satisfying choice for consumers.

The new data published on Tuesday by ChangeWave Research comes from a survey of 2,893 North American consumers conducted in May. It has found, once again, that Apple's iPad dominates consumer buying plans going forward.

In the next 90 days, 73 percent of consumers who plan to buy a tablet indicated they will choose Apple's iPad. That compares to just 8 percent who chose the Kindle Fire, and 6 percent who went with the Samsung Galaxy Tab brand.

Though Samsung finished in a distant third, its 6 percent managed to double its share of planned purchases since last quarter. ChangeWave said Samsung is the only manufacturer, besides Apple, who has shown any sign of strength in the tablet market.

Last year, following the launch of the Kindle Fire, ChangeWave found that the $199 device generated impressive demand from consumers, positioning the device to be the first credible competitor to the iPad. But since then, demand for the Kindle Fire has collapsed, as ChangeWave noted that Amazon's device is "floundering."

ChangeWave 1


The biggest reason for this may be customer satisfaction. While 81 percent of third-generation iPad owners indicated they are "very satisfied" with their purchase, just 41 percent of Kindle Fire owners said the same, and 46 percent of Galaxy Tab owners.

The percent of consumers revealing they are "very satisfied" with the third-generation iPad is even greater than the 71 percent of iPad 2 owners who said they are "very satisfied."

ChangeWave 2


While Samsung has gained some momentum, demand for its Galaxy Tab still remains in the single digits among North American consumers. It's because of this that Dr. Paul Carton, ChangeWave's vice president of research, suggested the greatest threat to Apple's iPad might be another, rumored product from the same company: a so-called "iPad mini."

"At the moment, the greatest competitive threat to the new iPad could well be the iPad Mini — which doesn't exist yet, but even if it does, it too will be made by Apple," Carton said. "When it comes to tablets, the ChangeWave survey shows Apple continuing to exert near total control over the market."

ChangeWave asked consumers about the prospect of Apple releasing an "iPad mini," and found that 14 percent of those polled said they are "somewhat likely" to buy such a device, while 3 percent said they are "very likely." The research firm said those numbers are "highly encouraging" for Apple, while "further worrisome" for other manufacturers.

Rumors have claimed that Apple is experimenting with a new, smaller iPad with a screen size of 7.85 inches and a resolution of 1,024 by 768 pixels. One Wall Street analyst said this week that he expects such a device to launch this September.
post #2 of 62

Duh. What a surprise. No wonder these guys don't put out any actual sales numbers.

 

Look at the bright side, though, Amazon: Christmas is only 6 months away!

post #3 of 62

I would like to know, out of the 2893 persons sampled, how many actually are planning on buying a tablet.

post #4 of 62
Don't worry. The upcoming Google Asus Nexus 7" piece of shit will cut down any Samsung momentum before it also quickly fads away

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post #5 of 62

Just like i said.  Sales have collapsed.  kindle is a horrible device. slow. small. very limited in what it can do.  All the marketing hype and shill sites have finally been overwhelmed by the reality of the Kindle being a lackluster cheapo device which can not hold a candle to a full featured iPad.  My guess is the return rate is over 30% on these.

post #6 of 62
My step mom bought my dad a fire last November. He's used it a grand total of three times since he's had it. It sits in a drawer catching dust.

I honestly don't understand what Amazon was thinking when they built this thing. It's a sad piece of equipment. The only reason why it sold well in the beginning is because uneducated non techies who didn't want to spend 500 on a tablet saw this inexpensive device from a prominent company and bit. Half of them probably returned it and the others probably hate their decision.

What they need to understand is that people won't settle for cheap devices anymore. Theyd rather go without than own a piece of junk. Apple is hugely responsible for this way of thinking. No matter what anyone says, the iPad is very affordable. At a 500 entry, the average middle class family can own one if they really wanted one. This creates a problem for companies like android and amazon because Apple is now creating premium products at very affordable prices whereas Samsung, HTC, etc. are creating plastic devices at the same price point and Amazon is just creating junk thinking the world will continue to fall for it. Amazon had a good ride, but now that ride has come to an end. The sad part is they were taking a loss on each sale so their profits are probably slim to none.
post #7 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheShepherd View Post

I would like to know, out of the 2893 persons sampled, how many actually are planning on buying a tablet.

More importantly, what is the correlation between what people 'plan' to buy and what they actually buy?

Unless someone can show that this type of survey has useful predictive value, it's a waste of time.
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post #8 of 62

My wife bought a Fire right when they came out (preordered I think) and she was quite excited.  However she was quickly frustrated with the performance of the thing, returned it, and went back to her Kindle.  I had an iPad and she questioned the point of it, it didn't appeal to her.  Now she has the "new" iPad and loves it.

 

I think the stats on the Kindle Fire and other smaller tablets would cause Apple to rethink any plans for a mini iPad.  I suspect the rumored device is nothing more than a contingency plan that Apple will never implement unless they have to.
 

post #9 of 62

I mostly agree with what you said.   Except.. "At a 500 entry, the average middle class family can own one if they really wanted one. " I got my son one (iPad 2 refurb from Apple ) for $345.   Occasionally they show up for $315.   Works great and full warrantee.  

 

Just a thought.

post #10 of 62

We saw this coming. 

 

Another iPad-wannabe bites the dust. 

 

All that "Jeff Bezos is the next Steve Jobs" talk . . . *rolleyes*

post #11 of 62

Damn! I was absolutely sure that The Fire would dominate the tablet space!
 

lol.giflol.giflol.gif

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post #12 of 62
I'm more amazed by the number of people still falling for Samsung's trickery and buying their soon-to-be abandonwares.

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post #13 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by williamh View Post

My wife bought a Fire right when they came out (preordered I think) and she was quite excited.  However she was quickly frustrated with the performance of the thing, returned it, and went back to her Kindle.  I had an iPad and she questioned the point of it, it didn't appeal to her.  Now she has the "new" iPad and loves it.

Since the Kindle FIre first appeared I've forecasted that the device could be make plenty of people who didn't think they wanted any tablet actually get interested in the platform and go for a full tablet experience after attempting to use the Fire for there regular computer needs. All in all it looks like the Fire is good for iPad sales.

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post #14 of 62
What I think is underestimated are two advantages. One is that the iPad is just about perfect in terms of size. Smaller and it becomes less enjoyable to use. Larger and it becomes too cumbersome for a handheld. The other great strength of this device is access to plenty of inexpensive applications. For less than $100 you can equip an iPad with plenty of excellent apps.

It's the just-right nature of this device combined with a compelling affordability that has left competitors with no clear weakness to exploit. Sure in the early going there was concern over the lack of Flash support but no one's really talking much about that any more. Flash is dying and everybody knows it.

Apple couldn't have played this any better.

Makes you wonder why, having done so, rumors that Apple is planning to make a smaller iPad refuse to die. This fight was over virtually from the start and all Apple has to do is make refinements over time to continue to own the tablet market.

It's not the iPad that needs to be reimagined, if you will, but rather the Touch. That device needs to be a little larger, in my opinion, to hit the sweet spot for a pocketable device. Not too much, mind you, but just the right amount. The iPad seems perfect to me as sized, yet not the Touch. Leaving room for the Touch to get a little larger is one of the reasons that I don't see a 7-inch iPad variant in Apple's future plans.
post #15 of 62

No interest in the Fire, although I'll probably soon get one of the cheaper black and white kindles for book reading.  Already have an iPad 2, and those are the only kindles that offer something I don't already have.

post #16 of 62

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post #17 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carmissimo View Post

What I think is underestimated are two advantages. One is that the iPad is just about perfect in terms of size. Smaller and it becomes less enjoyable to use. Larger and it becomes too cumbersome for a handheld. The other great strength of this device is access to plenty of inexpensive applications. For less than $100 you can equip an iPad with plenty of excellent apps.
It's the just-right nature of this device combined with a compelling affordability that has left competitors with no clear weakness to exploit. Sure in the early going there was concern over the lack of Flash support but no one's really talking much about that any more. Flash is dying and everybody knows it.
Apple couldn't have played this any better.
Makes you wonder why, having done so, rumors that Apple is planning to make a smaller iPad refuse to die. This fight was over virtually from the start and all Apple has to do is make refinements over time to continue to own the tablet market.
It's not the iPad that needs to be reimagined, if you will, but rather the Touch. That device needs to be a little larger, in my opinion, to hit the sweet spot for a pocketable device. Not too much, mind you, but just the right amount. The iPad seems perfect to me as sized, yet not the Touch. Leaving room for the Touch to get a little larger is one of the reasons that I don't see a 7-inch iPad variant in Apple's future plans.

That, of course, assumes that everyone's needs are the same and that there's only one 'right' size for the iPad.

When first selling the product, it made sense to limit it to a single size. Reduced market confusion and much simpler supply chain. Now that the iPad is a roaring success, it's entirely possible that there will be a 7-8" device. Standard marketing practice.
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post #18 of 62

The only reason it ever sold well is because you could buy that family member or spouse a "$200 tablet for Christmas, that does most of the stuff a $500 iPad does".  Because thats what it was advertised as.

 

Chances are that family member or spouse never even wanted the damn thing, never found a use for it.  And more importantly that family member or spouse went out an bought an iPad later.  Which means your $200 cheapass Christmas present now sits in desk drawer.  But hey.. its the thought that counts right?

post #19 of 62

A more apt name for the Kindle Fire is the Amazon Shopping Tablet and people complain about Apple's walled garden.  

post #20 of 62

I figure two scenarios are typical of Kindle Fire purchases.

 

Scenario 1: Grandma asks what Johnny wants for Christmas and gets "iPad!" in reply.  She checks it out at Walmart and her eyes pop at the price so the sales clerk tells her, "Go with the Kindle Fire.  It works just as well at a much lower price."  So Johnny gets a Kindle Fire for Christmas, and if he was raised properly  he says thank you, feigns absolute delight, then lets the damn thing collect dust in his room.  Spoiled rotten Johnny throws a hissy fit right at Grandma, asks for the receipt to return the thing and keeps the money.

 

Scenario 2:  Bob is familiar with the iPad, having mucked around with his buddy Mike's iPad when they hung out.  But the iPad's over his budget so he decides to wait for a lower priced competitor.  Out comes the Kindle Fire and he orders it based on the misleading reviews published by Amazon shills.  After two days of using the Fire, he realizes it's a POS that is nothing like the iPad.  Returns the dang thing and like a woman scorned becomes a walking, talking anti-Fire advocate.

post #21 of 62

This is great news. I always believed people wanted a no compromise tablet experience.

post #22 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by tundraboy View Post

I figure two scenarios are typical of Kindle Fire purchases.

 

 

Or parents are looking for a device to entertain the kids with video, books and games and pick the Kindle over the iPod Touch.

 

IMHO rumors for the iPad Mini are actually those for a larger updated iPod Touch.  Which I would have purchased over the Fire but is even slower than the Fire and smaller for viewing.  

 

The only think the Fire needs to do for me is run netflix, amazon video, simple games and light web browsing.  For that it works well.

post #23 of 62

I certainly get why people buy the Fire: very cheap price, Amazon ecosystem, etc.  But the customer satisfaction ratings on the Samsung Galaxy Tab are every bit as bad as those for the Fire, and it is more expensive to boot.  Who are the people buying it?  And if they are Android fans/Apple haters why are the customer satisfaction ratings so low -- wouldn't they stand by their Android device come hell or high water?  I am genuinely curious.

post #24 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted13 View Post

I certainly get why people buy the Fire: very cheap price, Amazon ecosystem, etc.  But the customer satisfaction ratings on the Samsung Galaxy Tab are every bit as bad as those for the Fire, and it is more expensive to boot.  Who are the people buying it?  And if they are Android fans/Apple haters why are the customer satisfaction ratings so low -- wouldn't they stand by their Android device come hell or high water?  I am genuinely curious.

There's still a lot of FUD being spread about Apple. People are being told not to buy it because of the closed ecosystem or because Apple isn't a 'green' company or because Apple product are toys or for lots of other reasons. Some people fall for that and end up buying competitors' products - only to find themselves disappointed.
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post #25 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


There's still a lot of FUD being spread about Apple. People are being told not to buy it because of the closed ecosystem or because Apple isn't a 'green' company or because Apple product are toys or for lots of other reasons. Some people fall for that and end up buying competitors' products - only to find themselves disappointed.

Yes, that and all those Chinese workers that get exploited by Apple that leads them to commit suicide, all those US jobs that Apple won't bring back, the overheating-gate, the 4G-gate, the size gain-gate, the weight gain-gate.... what am I missing?lol.gif

post #26 of 62

I wonder what % of people who have owned BOTH an iPad AND a Samsung or Fire, would say they are satisified with the non-iPad!

 

An iOS knock-off, be it tablet or phone, is a pretty cool thing (better than the iPhone 1.0 we once loved for sure) if you don’t know what you’re missing.

post #27 of 62
Quote:
ChangeWave asked consumers about the prospect of Apple releasing an "iPad mini," and found that 14 percent of those polled said they are "somewhat likely" to buy such a device, while 3 percent said they are "very likely." The research firm said those numbers are "highly encouraging" for Apple.

Am I reading this right? How is 14% and 3% “highly encouraging”?

post #28 of 62

I wouldn't be surprised if Apple releases a 7" tablet...and brands it as an iPod Touch, not as an iPad.

 

That would instantly devalue all of the 7" iPad competitors in the market.

post #29 of 62

BUT BUT BUT All the media pundits, analysts, and Apple haters were telling us that Apple MUST respond to this Kindle fire threat or they'd be screwed. As predicted, a big bang then a fizzle like all these other ipod/iPhone/iPad killers. 

post #30 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by sunspot42 View Post
I wouldn't be surprised if Apple releases a 7" tablet...and brands it as an iPod Touch, not as an iPad.

 

This post hit me with a powerful wave of deja vu. I'm not sure why.

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post #31 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheShepherd View Post

I would like to know, out of the 2893 persons sampled, how many actually are planning on buying a tablet.

good point, this was not a statistically sound survey. 

 

but I think it was also something of a 'no sheet, sherlock' if you look at the various articles about sales etc. the Fire is still in the early days and frankly it's not that awesome. That they released a device that requires you to be logged in to access your media, doesn't ask for a password to buy something and had zero parental restriction controls was a huge mistake. One that is going to leave a serious bad mark on their rep for a while. It could be another year or two before they get any real change in fortune on this gig. If they keep going that long. They should have started with what it initially sounded like it was going to be, a device for their media like a Super Kindle. Even Apple started small in the end by releasing the iPhone before the iPad. 

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post #32 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by williamh View Post

I think the stats on the Kindle Fire and other smaller tablets would cause Apple to rethink any plans for a mini iPad.  I suspect the rumored device is nothing more than a contingency plan that Apple will never implement unless they have to.

 

 

I agree on the first, disagree on the second. Apple has never played "what are the other boys doing" and that is one Steve thing I think that will stick. Any less than 10 inch iPad was a prototype. That's all. It will never been released. And Apple isn't holding it as a back up plan in case someone else goes big with a smaller device. Again, not their style. 

 

Now might Apple up the size of the iPod touch to say a 5-6" range, still using iphone/ipod apps. Sure they might. And will folks go around all "Steve Jobs lied, that's a 7 inch iPad" sure they will. Because they are waiting for someone to prove yet again that Steve lied. 

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post #33 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpy View Post

BUT BUT BUT All the media pundits, analysts, and Apple haters were telling us that Apple MUST respond to this Kindle fire threat or they'd be screwed. 

 

And they did. By doing nothing different. And it worked. Apple's iPad is soaring to the skies (literally if you are flying in Singapore or Australia on the right airlines). 

 

Meanwhile . . .

 

kindlebirdcage.png

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post #34 of 62

I doubt the sales of the Kindle Fire have collapsed - if they had, Amazon would be selling them world-wide to shift stock, instead of just the USA. 

post #35 of 62

FWIW - take this assessment with a grain of salt... a couple of things to consider...

 

1. When's the last time you SAW an ad (TV/Web/etc) for an iPad and the Kindle Fire

2. Apple LOST marketshare to Amazon video in ONE YEAR (2010 - Apple have 70%+, 2011 - 30%+... Amazon 1% 2010, now 40% in 2011).

 

If you look at total gross unit sales, the Kindle is a success and with Amazon bitch-slapping Apple on video content delivery, it's only a matter of time before iPad sales reach an apex.

I see this happening right around the holidays this year as Windows 8 rolls in.
 

And Apple dominance at the $499 price point *may* be threatened with the new crop of faster, cooler tablets (android/Windows)... because they'll be coming in at $299 and $399... and people WILL question, are they really getting any more value at $499? versus $299 or even $199?

 
 
post #36 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuxoM3 View Post

FWIW - take this assessment with a grain of salt... a couple of things to consider...

 

1. When's the last time you SAW an ad (TV/Web/etc) for an iPad and the Kindle Fire

2. Apple LOST marketshare to Amazon video in ONE YEAR (2010 - Apple have 70%+, 2011 - 30%+... Amazon 1% 2010, now 40% in 2011).

 

If you look at total gross unit sales, the Kindle is a success and with Amazon bitch-slapping Apple on video content delivery, it's only a matter of time before iPad sales reach an apex.

I see this happening right around the holidays this year as Windows 8 rolls in.
 

And Apple dominance at the $499 price point *may* be threatened with the new crop of faster, cooler tablets (android/Windows)... because they'll be coming in at $299 and $399... and people WILL question, are they really getting any more value at $499? versus $299 or even $199?

 
 

 

Hilarious post, will read again. This 'It's only a matter of time until i-Product reaches apex'  and 'just wait until product X' line is such a horrible, horrible cliche that history proves to be idiotic every single time it's uttered. 

post #37 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sqeze View Post

I doubt the sales of the Kindle Fire have collapsed - if they had, Amazon would be selling them world-wide to shift stock, instead of just the USA. 

I'm not sure I agree with that wholeheartedly but I do like your thinking here and your rationale makes sense. Welcome to the forum. Please continue to think outside the box.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpy View Post

Hilarious post, will read again. This 'It's only a matter of time until i-Product reaches apex'  and 'just wait until product X' line is such a horrible, horrible cliche that history proves to be idiotic every single time it's uttered. 
I love how he has Amazon with 1% of the tablet market in 2010 despite not having a tablet until the end of 2011.

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post #38 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sqeze View Post

I doubt the sales of the Kindle Fire have collapsed - if they had, Amazon would be selling them world-wide to shift stock, instead of just the USA. 

 

The Fire is a video content device... Amazon video content to be specific.

 

They wouldn't be able to offer video content outside of the US (I suppose they could but it would cost them more than the device is worth to set up the infrastructure).

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post #39 of 62

Though it's a familiar area for angst (5? 4s? OMG!!!!!) I don't actually get it. Look at the lineup: Touch, Phone, Pad... they all look the same (do the "Samsung lawyer" test: line them up at a distance and try and pick them out....). That's because, IMHO, they ARE all the same on a fundamental level., variations on a theme. So a 7 inch iWhatever will be more of that same theme. And as a horsepower fan I'd prefer a 7 inch whatever with the internals of the current iPad, or higher. Oh and for somewhat more convenient portability than a pad, though less than a phone, the 7 would be a nice addition for those like myself that want more readability than the phone provides in a more portable package.

 

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post #40 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


 People are being told not to buy it because of the closed ecosystem

Meanwhile that's one of the key advantages!

 

Besides, consumers *are* actually choosing closed ecosystems. Apple's success has proven the closed, controlled ecosystem's landslide superiority when it comes to User Experience. 

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