FWIW - take this assessment with a grain of salt... a couple of things to consider...
1. When's the last time you SAW an ad (TV/Web/etc) for an iPad and the Kindle Fire
2. Apple LOST marketshare to Amazon video in ONE YEAR (2010 - Apple have 70%+, 2011 - 30%+... Amazon 1% 2010, now 40% in 2011).
If you look at total gross unit sales, the Kindle is a success and with Amazon bitch-slapping Apple on video content delivery, it's only a matter of time before iPad sales reach an apex.
Really? If Kindle is such a success, why do all reports say that sales plummeted after the first of the year?
And, btw, it will be interesting to see where you came up with Amazon having 40% of the tablet market for 2011. if you're going to make up numbers, why not make up something believable? Heck, if you want to make up numbers, why not say Amazon had 250% of the market in 2011. Why not a gazillion percent?
And Apple dominance at the $499 price point *may* be threatened with the new crop of faster, cooler tablets (android/Windows)... because they'll be coming in at $299 and $399... and people WILL question, are they really getting any more value at $499? versus $299 or even $199?
Funny, that's what everyone has been saying since the iPad first came out. The figures cited in this article say that it hasn't happened yet. Please wake me up when it happens.
And feel free to tell me where I can buy a 'faster, cooler tablet" for $299.
Other than, of course, the fact that the boxes contain power adapters for US power. And the fact that electronic devices need approval before being sold in most other countries.
BTW, your doubt about Kindle Fire sales dropping isn't of any interest. What EVIDENCE do you have? Most published reports say that sales dropped dramatically after the first of the year. The most favorable (for Amazon) report I've seen said that sales 'only' dropped by 50%. Most of them say that sales dropped by 75% or more.