or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › IDC projects Windows Phone to surpass Apple's iPhone by 2016
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

IDC projects Windows Phone to surpass Apple's iPhone by 2016

post #1 of 99
Thread Starter 
Market analysts at IDC estimate that the share of handsets running Microsoft's Windows Phone will grow to take nearly 20 percent of the market by 2016 at the expense of Apple's iOS and Google's Android.

Results from the firm's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker released on Wednesday point to a marked five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46.2 percent between 2012 and 2016 for the Windows Phone platform citing Microsoft hardware partner Nokia's growing strength in emerging markets.

Although it currently only owns a 5.2 percent market share, less than RIM's BlackBerry, Windows Phone is slated to disrupt the mobile space to become one of the three main smartphone platforms beside Android and iOS. Microsoft's platform is forecast to have a 19.2 percent share of the market by the end of 2016.

"The mobile phone user transition from feature phones to smartphones will continue in a gradual but unabated fashion," said Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "Smartphone growth, however, will increasingly be driven by a triumvirate of smartphone operating systems, namely Android, iOS and Windows Phone 7."

While Android is expected to continue its domination through 2016 with 52.9 percent of the market, the OS will grow only 9.5 percent as the worldwide wireless market expands further into developing areas like China and India. Google's mobile platform, which will become increasingly dependent on Samsung device sales, is forecast to peak in 2012 as shipments begin to cool.

IDC
Source: IDC


The South Korean electronics maker is already the world's largest mobile phone maker and recently overtook Apple in smartphone shipments giving it a dominating presence in the wireless market. As it stands Samsung relies on Android to power its handsets but it may be looking into creating a new operating system as it was announced on Tuesday that the company paid a $500,000 fee to become a Linux Foundation board member. Although only speculation, the company could potentially use its significant coffers to further develop and refine the Tizen mobile OS in a slow move away from an increasingly fragmented Android.

IDC notes that Apple's installed customer base allows little room for growth and estimates that demand for the iPhone will slow in the next five years with sales mainly driven by replacement cycles. The momentum seen by the iPhone 4S in 2012 will result in overall shipment growth but a small decline in market share is expected. By the end of 2016 Apple is seen as having a 19 percent share of the overall smartphone market.

Chart: Worldwide Top 5 Smartphone OS Market Share Forecast, 1Q 2012Description: Tags: Author: IDCcharts powered by iCharts


"Underpinning the smartphone market is the constantly shifting OS landscape," said IDC Mobile Phone Technology and Trends Senior Research Analyst Ramon Llamas. "Android will maintain leadership throughout our forecast, while others will gain more mobile operator partnerships (Apple) or currently find themselves in the midst of a major transition (BlackBerry and Windows Phone/Windows Mobile). What remains to be seen is how these different operating systems ? as well as others ? will define and shape the user experience beyond what we see today in order to attract new customers and encourage replacements."

Beyond the top three platforms, RIM's BlackBerry will surprisingly see relevance as the emerging market exhibits demand for cheap messaging devices. The Waterloo, Ontario-based company will have a CAGR higher than iOS and is projected to maintain a nearly 6 percent share of the market. It is no certainty that RIM can stay alive long enough to benefit from developing nations, however, as corporate turmoil and suffering sales have brought the once mighty telecom to the edge of irrelevance.
post #2 of 99
IDC were predicting Symbian to do this two years ago. Basically they think Nokia has a brand and people follow that brand regardless of the software. This is ludicrous, Nokia had disappeared in Europe for instance. Apple can upset this cart by having cheap off contract phones.
I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
Reply
I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
Reply
post #3 of 99
LoL .
post #4 of 99
Yeah, right! There'll probably be NO Windows Phone by 2016! That's a prediction that makes more sense!
post #5 of 99
Just sticking with Nokia, their business is in free fall.

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-11/nokia-sales-slump-puts-pressure-on-elop-to-consider-split.html

And Microsoft has no brand in mobile and is entering a space with no real apps. IDC talks only about distribution networks, didn't matter a damn to Nokia in Europe.

The Windows phone is making no real inroads anywhere. So useless are IDCs predictions that even Nokia didn't believe the Symbian continuing to be dominant story and abandoned the platform.

And the growth of 9.5% per year. The iPhone is growing at 100% per year.

The pent up demand in these countries is for iPhone's - Android is already there. A cheap off contract phone there and windows is dead.
I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
Reply
I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
Reply
post #6 of 99

IDC has been taking paid statements (bribes) from Microsoft for decades.

 

Get a new trick, MS. It's dead.
 

post #7 of 99

LMAO

 

By then the entire WP7 project is more likely to have been liquidated. 

post #8 of 99

Blackberry will have a 5.9% market share in 2016? I will be surprised if they are even around at the point.

post #9 of 99

The biggest problem I see with Microsoft's new marketing strategy is that they have completely ditched what ever individuality they had, to be completely obsessed with Apple. The new Microsoft way is very unhealthy indeed and they seem to be ignoring their existing user base. 

 

No matter what Microsoft does, they can never be "cool" like Apple. Microsoft represents a business office brand and by chance became associated with gamers & consumers,due to its open PC architecture, that enables graphics cards to be added in to empty slots. But Microsoft has never been cool, it has generally been a broken product and no matter hard they try they just have to much baggage. 

 

No one wants Windows phone and I see that in the foreseeable future, no matter how many analysts they bribe.

post #10 of 99

The biggest problem I see with Microsoft's new marketing strategy is that they have completely ditched what ever individuality they had, to be completely obsessed with Apple. The new Microsoft way is very unhealthy indeed and they seem to be ignoring their existing user base. 

 

No matter what Microsoft does, they can never be "cool" like Apple. Microsoft represents an odd business office brand and by chance became associated with gamers & consumers, due to its open PC architecture, that enables graphics cards, to be added in to empty slots. But Microsoft has never been cool, it has generally been a broken product and no matter how hard they try, they just have to much baggage. 

 

No one wants Windows phones and I see that in the foreseeable future, no matter how many analysts they bribe. 

 

Metro is ugly; it is too minimal and dummy looking, and tries too hard to be a fisher price toy. Also it is weirdly tacked on to an existing desktop OS which causes a major disturbance in brain patterns!

 

NOTE

 

It is funny to see so many flyers in my letterbox from PC Tech Sole Traders offering me $80 p/h to fix my PC from viruses and registry problems etc. Computers shouldn't be full of malware and problems they should just work, my Atari 800 never crashed once.


Edited by theskivvys - 6/6/12 at 5:40pm
post #11 of 99
I don't think IDC have ever predicted that either android or iOS would be where they are today, their report for 2012 no doubt has Symbian dominating. They then never mention their past massive inaccuracies, and trend iOS and Android down on the same illogical methodology which made their predictions for now such bollocks. The question I have is can people sue?
I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
Reply
I wanted dsadsa bit it was taken.
Reply
post #12 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

I don't think IDC have ever predicted that either android or iOS would be where they are today, their report for 2012 no doubt has Symbian dominating. They then never mention their past massive inaccuracies, and trend iOS and Android down on the same illogical methodology which made their predictions for now such bollocks. The question I have is can people sue?

I seem to recall they've always been heavy on Symbian and Windows.

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply

"The real haunted empire?  It's the New York Times." ~SockRolid

"There is no rule that says the best phones must have the largest screen." ~RoundaboutNow

Reply
post #13 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by theskivvys View Post

No matter what Microsoft does, they can never be "cool" like Apple. Microsoft represents a business office brand and by chance became associated with gamers & consumers,due to its open PC architecture, that enables graphics cards to be added in to empty slots. But Microsoft has never been cool, it has generally been a broken product and no matter hard they try they just have to much baggage. 

The history and rivalry between Direct3D and OpenGL in the mid-90s says differ.

post #14 of 99

I wish that Microsoft would put work into Windows Phone 7 to make it even remotely plausible this could be the case.

 

But all this says in reality is, "never listen to me again; I'm a hack".

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply

Originally posted by Marvin

Even if [the 5.5” iPhone exists], it doesn’t deserve to.
Reply
post #15 of 99

Apple has yet to publish their 2012 numbers yet so their projections are already suspicious with regards to the 2012 numbers.  We'll have to wait until Jan/Feb to see the REAL 2012 numbers.  THEN they have to make predictions.

post #16 of 99

Windows 8 looks like it was designed by a 3-year old and this prediction sounds like it was made by a 3-year old. 

post #17 of 99

Also, are these numbers based on entire installed base OR shipments for the respective years.  Microsoft has a LOT of catching up first.

post #18 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

IDC were predicting Symbian to do this two years ago. Basically they think Nokia has a brand and people follow that brand regardless of the software. This is ludicrous, Nokia had disappeared in Europe for instance. Apple can upset this cart by having cheap off contract phones.

Yeah, I think this nails it. 

 

Really bizarre. 

post #19 of 99

there are many, many variables at play to make an informed prediction, but there is a very fair chance windows phones will match ios's market share in 4 years, of course profits is another issue ;). I think it's the apple bias here that won't allow people to believe otherwise.

post #20 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by Negafox View Post

The history and rivalry between Direct3D and OpenGL in the mid-90s says differ.

 

not following. can you elaborate?

post #21 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by MJ Web View Post

Windows 8 looks like it was designed by a 3-year old and this prediction sounds like it was made by a 3-year old. 

It wouldn't surprise me if the person that made the calculations is a Windows user, therefore based on these assumptions. Windows 8 looks like it was designed by a 3 year old FOR a 3 year old so they can make predictions that are in line with 3 year olds.

post #22 of 99
I think "IDC" is some college drop-out's garage business. He just sends crap out like this with graphs, goofy sources and no real data to back it up... Just for kicks.
post #23 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

IDC were predicting Symbian to do this two years ago. 

 

And I believe last year they said that Windows Phones would do the same thing in 2015. I wonder if next year they will say 2017

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

Reply

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

Reply
post #24 of 99

So exactly what mathematical model do you use to predict that something that has almost no traction now will manage to beat everything else out there in 5 years? 

Wishful thinking is not math.

post #25 of 99
Let's not forget that MS has already stated that current wp7/7.5 handsets will NOT be able to upgrade to wp8, which is one reasOn wp7 isn't selling.
post #26 of 99

IDC should take a shot at predicting who will be making profit and how much.

post #27 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by jakeb View Post

So exactly what mathematical model do you use to predict that something that has almost no traction now will manage to beat everything else out there in 5 years? 

Wishful thinking is not math.

 

Heh -- yeah, I'd like to see the functional form of the regression model that concludes from Windows' plummeting sales and the soaring sales of iOS and Android that these trends will suddenly, almost magically, reverse at some point just over the horizon. 

post #28 of 99

LMAO,

 

this is not possible a cheaper alternative to iphone is already there : Android.

 

But Microsoft is probably safe in the enterprise market. However, the way IPADs are selling Microsoft will take further hit in business in the consumer market. 

post #29 of 99

It looks like the people at IDC are smoking something?

Like everyone else said, RIM will be lucky if they are still around by 2016, and same with Microsoft, they'll be lucky if they are selling at least 1 windows phone a week. They were late to the game, you snooze you lose, fair and square. Windows has always been behind, at least that is what i thought, when i got my first Laptop on Vista, i hated it from the day i got it to the day i killed it on purpose to get a Mac. I will never go back to a windows product in my life!

post #30 of 99
Quote:
Originally Posted by lala123 View Post

LMAO,

 

this is not possible a cheaper alternative to iphone is already there : Android.

 

But Microsoft is probably safe in the enterprise market. However, the way IPADs are selling Microsoft will take further hit in business in the consumer market. 


I live in a County where we the people at the education board are Anti-Apple, and over the last few weeks they have been buying iPads THANK GOD! for the special education departments so they can learn that it is a big part and will do great things, we have windows XP desktops still.... STILL in 2012, XP and DESKTOPS and we have a few flat screen monitors, supposedly will all be flat screen monitors next year.... and we are finally getting iPads now, id say Microsoft needs to watch its back, everyone is starting to love the one they were hating on before, Apple.

 

Oh, and the cheaper, crappier iPhone is definitely Andriod, or if you want an iPhone wanna be, preferably something from Samsung!

post #31 of 99

IDC has absolutely no credibility.  They have predicted this in the past with Symbian and also in 2010, predicated that by 2013 Windows would command the mobile platform, ahead of Apple and Android.  They are obviously being 'sponsored' to make these statements.

post #32 of 99

IDC is paid MSFT PR.  This is disgusting.  No ethics whatsoever.  

post #33 of 99

"Market analysts at IDC estimate that the share of handsets running Microsoft's Windows Phone will grow to take nearly 20 percent of the market by 2016 at the expense of Apple's iOS and Google's Android."

oh yes........and I am going to win the lotto tomorrow too.......

Tallest Skil:


"Eventually Google will have their Afghanistan with Oracle and collapse"

"The future is Apple, Google, and a third company that hasn't yet been created."


 


 

Reply

Tallest Skil:


"Eventually Google will have their Afghanistan with Oracle and collapse"

"The future is Apple, Google, and a third company that hasn't yet been created."


 


 

Reply
post #34 of 99
Quote:

when i got my first Laptop on Vista, i hated it from the day i got it to the day i killed it on purpose to get a Mac. I will never go back to a windows product in my life!

 

 

The fact that you tried Windows Vista explains all of that... though I must say (as much as I love my iPhone, Apple TV, Macbook Pro, etc etc) I far and beyond prefer Windows 7 to any windows version and in MY OPINION the OSX desktop operating system doesn't hold a candle to it, but just because I don't care for OSX right now doesn't mean I pledge to never use it again... Products change. I try to give them another chance every few years at least or keep an eye on it. Of course I may think OSX sucks but I am only a general user on it where I have used windows since version 3.1. I know every living detail of windows where I don't know the innards of OSX enough to even mention. Just saying, don't try one version of something and try to act like OSX or Apple is the only way to go for the rest of your life...

post #35 of 99

Anyone know what was their prediction on the success of the Kin phone?  Wasn't that an iPhone killer?

post #36 of 99

Was someone given free crack to the analysts at IDC?  These bozos can't predict what the market will look like tomorrow.

post #37 of 99

It's amazing what one can do (and the amount of bullshit one can sling) when handed the keys to all the cute little forecasting features, along with the cool 3D graphics, of Excel. 

post #38 of 99

Relax, folks. I am sure it's April 1.

 

Wait....

post #39 of 99
Right everybody! Bookmark this and prepare your chowder award to IDC in 4 yrs time.
post #40 of 99

IDC predicts that in 4 years Microsoft will beat Apple by 0.2%. They do not give margin of error for their "prediction" because it is at least an order of magnitude greater than 0.2%.

 

But this is good enough to make headlines that Microsoft will beat Apple by 2016. This is the same tactics IDC/Microsoft used in previous "predictions". I am too lazy to dig out all of them but they will be good enough to sue IDC and everybody that publishes them :)

New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: iPhone
AppleInsider › Forums › Mobile › iPhone › IDC projects Windows Phone to surpass Apple's iPhone by 2016