Microsoft also said they would beat iPhone by 2012.
"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."
"Apple should pull the plug on the iPhone."
Come on 'Insider... We know that page hits are important - but this article is about as newsworthy as Steve J. is now living with Elvis in a trailer in Arizona. Yes we are all free to believe what we want.. but some reasonable test should be applied before repeating drivel and calling it news. Here is a new story for you. "Apple to quit designing computers and move into the breaking industry of organic farming.... Ives quits in disgust as he wanted to do macro-biotics instead... Film at 11:00..." that has as much street cred as Windows world domination in phone OS market share.
That's nearly 20 years ago...two decades...that's like a century in technology time....140 dog-years.
When IDC is not making predictions, they are writing religious fiction for Ron L. Hubbard's tax shelter.
there are many, many variables at play to make an informed prediction, but there is a very fair chance windows phones will match ios's market share in 4 years, of course profits is another issue ;). I think it's the apple bias here that won't allow people to believe otherwise.
It doesn't take an Apple bias to see that Microsoft is screwed. Later this year they will release their beta OS8 on the world. It will be available on various beta phones and tablets that will have close to zero apps available. Meanwhile Apple will be releasing their SIXTH generation iOS which has been further polished to integrate the iPhone, iPod Touch, iPad and OSX and Windows.
Everyone will have stars in their eyes over the OS8 hype and all it is supposed to do ... until it becomes evident that it's all a work in progress. Especially compared to Apple's close integration between hardware, software, the iCloud, iTunes, the App Store, the Mac Store, and whatever-else that will be revealed at WWDC next week.
Since Apple announced the iPhone Microsoft has (1) declared their WinMo phones to be a better thing before killing it off, (2) released and killed the KIM phone line, (3) released the WinMo7, (4) only to announce that will be killed and replaced with WinMo8 later this year.
In addition, (5) Apple has released three generations of iPads since the date Ballmer stood sweating profusely at CES holding a barely functional H.P. tablet, that H.P. killed off before manufacturing.
I don't see Microsoft having a "fair chance" at making any headway against their nearly six year delay at this market... especially with that tasteless Metro interface.
... I have used windows since version 3.1. I know every living detail of windows where I don't know the innards of OSX enough to even mention. Just saying, don't try one version of something and try to act like OSX or Apple is the only way to go for the rest of your life...
In this new century it is no longer necessary to know the "innards" of a computer OS any more then you need to be a telephone repairman to operate an iPhone, or be an auto mechanic to drive a car.
Fixing registries, installing drivers, doing tune-ups, and defraging drives are no longer necessary with a modern OS. It's like a toaster, you use it and go on your way.
Do you happen to know if you'll win enough to personally buy 20% of the market for WP8 by 2016? Because as far as I can tell, IDC is counting on it as part of their forecasts! :)
But wait, there's more! How about that ultra-cluttered Explorer ribbon monstrosity? Ballmer FTW!
I could picture WP at 20% of the market even by 2014. Don't forget they won't be marketing only premium devices but also cheaper phones in the $200-$300 pre-paid range. This will surely go down well in Asia where Nokia still has a strong presence and where the biggest growth is expected. With HTC and Samsung also making WP phones, it seems feasible...
I spent some time finding out some older IDC predictions. Actually, this is what journalists and bloggers are supposed to do.
IDC forecasts (as of 2010):
Same prediction with graphic:
And a bonus track:
I hope those brilliant people at IDC put their retirement funds in Nokia and other Phone 7....
Anyone knows how much time Zune would need to overtake that iPod thing, according to IDC "http://www.marketresearch.com/IDC-v2477/Zune-HD-Right-Time-2474350/"
This is last years guess
This time it was 2015. Next year it will be 2017. Last year Apple was going to be even lower in market share
According to Gartner, Apple’s iOS will be the one to do so, growing from a 16 percent market share in 2010 to just 17 percent in 2015.
And here we are at 20%, or so. So now they have to drop Apple back to 19% to make room for the "inevitable" 20% for MS. In that report they predicted android growing to 40%, but that was at a time of enormous android growth, and they were anticipating a massive slow down in Anroid and iOS growth. Which never materialises. Android is ahead of that now, so it has to drop back in market share to make room for the blond eyed boys at MS.
The comments are cynical. One guy says, on Android
" And they said in the 2010 report that it [ Android] would reach *less* than 30% in 2014, but even then it will be behind Symbian, which would've continued to have 31% of the market."
Why is anybody taking them seriously? They have got nothing right in the last 4 years.
It's not the phone. It's the ecosystem. WP7 is pretty nice. But poor app selection. And the native services (everything on Bing) pretty much sucks outside the USA. That's why Android is doing so well.
Nokia might help. Nokia's services (Nokia Drive, Nokia Transport for example) do make up for WP7's shortfalls. The question though is whether it's too little too late now.
NO, i think the person who said Window 8 looks like it was designed by a 3 year old was right. He probably is a current Windows user using Windows XP or Windows 7 and sees how stupid playing with blocks will be in the next version of Windows. It is going to be worse than Vista. It will be a total flop and they will be forced to add back the start menu or loose all their business customers. Businesses will not put up with a full screen of stupid colored blocks to get around in Windows.
Windows 8 inspired by a 3 year old stacking up his blocks. But no 3 year old would be able to use it and businesses will shun it.
News Flash: Microsoft returns to its roots with Windows 8, they go back to Kindergarten and start stacking colored Blocks. Come join them on the floor and lets play blocks.
I wish that all analysts and sites that make predictions would be forced to account for their transgressions before they were allowed to make another prediction.
Force them to release an article where they explicitly state, "I was wrong in my prediction of ________________. This is why I was wrong: _________________." etc.
Originally posted by Relic
Originally posted by Relic
My prediction, which I have been making since last year, is that on upper end Smartphones in 2016 or thereabouts, iOS will be #1 and Windows Phone (WP) will be #2. Android will be a small percentage. On low end Smartphones, the low powered, cheap with contract ones, Android will come in #1 there. This will replace the current "feature phone" market.
There is no unified Android experience. Samsung, Motorola, HTC, etc are all a different user experience (UX). This will turn off repeat buyers of Android phones. They are not developing brand loyalty to Android as there is no single Android. This UX fragmentation will cause (and is already causing) consumer disappointment with Android.
However, the so-called feature phone market is being replaced by low end Android phones that offer, out of the box, simple apps for texting, internet, games, calendar, etc. They are the new feature phone. Android is good for that market as it is a cheap way for feature phone makers to offer these simple services on their phones and they can use low end POS phone components to make them. And lots of consumers just want a phone that will provide voice, texting, simple internet browser, maybe a calendar and other widgets, and a couple of games.
We are already seeing that Android users buy FAR LESS apps than iOS users. A large percentage of the Android activations are already these low end feature phone replacement phones, not high end smart phones. That will just become more so the case and the UX fragmentation will weaken Android in the high end. Both iOS and WP avoid the UX problems, provide a much more streamlined and consistent experience that extends beyond their first phone -- an ongoing UX. And once they invest in the so-called "eco-system" of their phone, whether iOS or WP, they are much more likely to stay with the platform for the long haul. As has been seen with the low rate of app buying by Android users, they are not buying in to their eco system as much and don't have that same attachment. WP is too early to say, but I am guessing that in the long run, you will have higher eco system buy-in amongst those who choose WP compared to Android.
Also a factor are the phone makers. They are all already hedging their bets keeping alternatives to Android alive. None of them want to be beholden to Google for their survival and they don't really trust Google. They have to pretend that they do, but they are all keeping escape routes open. And with the likelihood of the need to pay increased royalties to Apple, MS, and others over patent issues, the less-expensive part of Google is slowly fading as well.
By 2016 I see iOS as #1 in Smartphones, WP as #2. Low end Smartphones (what would be considered a Smartphone today) will be the new "feature phone" and I don't count those as Smartphones in 2016. Android will rule there. iOS (Apple using older models of iPhone for the low end of their offering) and WP will play a role here and will provide a path for these feature phone users to migrate to Smartphone users.
The chadbag has spoken! :) Mark my words and let's follow this up in 2016.
How about this: Apple will continue to increase its share as they roll out new devices and software. Android will stay even or maybe contract a little bit. It's hard to tell since there are a plethora of devices for clueless people to choose from (quality and fragmentation be damned), so Android will continue to be a big player for quite some time.
RIM will go the way of the dinosaur, and Win Phone 7 will no longer exist, because M$ will quickly replace it with Win 8 ("Windows everywhere"), which may only have a 50% chance of being successful. Nokia will be kicking around longer than RIM, but their chances aren't good. Were it not for their new sugar-daddy, they'd already be gone.
In the end, you'll have only 3 major players: Apple, Samsung, Google/Moto.
Yeah, "oops" again!
Welcome to the world of "paid PR posing as journalism or analysis"...
The moment I saw blackberry retaining most of their remaining 6% market share after four years, I knew they were just making stuff up here. I mean... Windows Phone overtaking iOS? In 4 years… How? That'll be some trick...
"Analysis"… bwa hahaaa!! More like Johnny Carson doing Carnac the Magnificent! :P
GS, your post of that 2010 chart just knocks it out of the park… IDC is seriously making things up. Pure hooey!
One of the interesting things about this particular analyst, IDC, is that they don't allow the empirical evidence to sway them, which is more the work of a cult than a team which is supposed to give people advice on investment.
Look at their 2010 report. Absolutely everything is wrong. Their "model" over emphasises, every time, Blackberry, Nokia and Windows phones. And underestimates iOS and Android. With the collapse of Symbian - even the CEO of Nokia didn't believe this report - they moved on to amalgamating their predictions for Symbian and Windows into one percentage. When their model fails - and I cant think of a bigger failure than that prediction for Symbian in 2014, they never apologise, and use the same model again.
A year or two before the 2010 prediction they showed iOS at 5% by now - just about where it was. In all these years Apple has pretty much beaten, or kept up with a rapidly growing market. Even when Android was at full tilt. So Apple clearly grown from 10% of the smart phone market in 2010 to 20% now, and it continuing to outpace the market. IDCs prediction of y-o-y growth for iOS is way off. So whats the story now? In the latest report they see apple growing at 10% y-o-y, while Android falls to 9.5%. While Android is slowing, Apple is about 80% y-o-y as it always has been. Both are way off. The empirical evidence that they were wrong on iOS growth before - and Android too - has no effect on their model. They plug in the same, or higher growth rates, to Blackberry and Windows to get to their previously decided upon figure, which in windows phone's case is always ahead of iOS, and always 4 years down the line.
The reports even do this from report to report. Last years report saw windows overtaking iOS in 2015, and saw it having 86% CAGR (yoy) while Apple would drop to 10%. The opposite happened last year, Windows in total has stalled, so they predicted the same again this year. From now Windows will grow at 86%, while Apple drops to 10%. Next year, it will be 2017.
Can people sue em?