My prediction, which I have been making since last year, is that on upper end Smartphones in 2016 or thereabouts, iOS will be #1 and Windows Phone (WP) will be #2. Android will be a small percentage. On low end Smartphones, the low powered, cheap with contract ones, Android will come in #1 there. This will replace the current "feature phone" market.
There is no unified Android experience. Samsung, Motorola, HTC, etc are all a different user experience (UX). This will turn off repeat buyers of Android phones. They are not developing brand loyalty to Android as there is no single Android. This UX fragmentation will cause (and is already causing) consumer disappointment with Android.
However, the so-called feature phone market is being replaced by low end Android phones that offer, out of the box, simple apps for texting, internet, games, calendar, etc. They are the new feature phone. Android is good for that market as it is a cheap way for feature phone makers to offer these simple services on their phones and they can use low end POS phone components to make them. And lots of consumers just want a phone that will provide voice, texting, simple internet browser, maybe a calendar and other widgets, and a couple of games.
We are already seeing that Android users buy FAR LESS apps than iOS users. A large percentage of the Android activations are already these low end feature phone replacement phones, not high end smart phones. That will just become more so the case and the UX fragmentation will weaken Android in the high end. Both iOS and WP avoid the UX problems, provide a much more streamlined and consistent experience that extends beyond their first phone -- an ongoing UX. And once they invest in the so-called "eco-system" of their phone, whether iOS or WP, they are much more likely to stay with the platform for the long haul. As has been seen with the low rate of app buying by Android users, they are not buying in to their eco system as much and don't have that same attachment. WP is too early to say, but I am guessing that in the long run, you will have higher eco system buy-in amongst those who choose WP compared to Android.
Also a factor are the phone makers. They are all already hedging their bets keeping alternatives to Android alive. None of them want to be beholden to Google for their survival and they don't really trust Google. They have to pretend that they do, but they are all keeping escape routes open. And with the likelihood of the need to pay increased royalties to Apple, MS, and others over patent issues, the less-expensive part of Google is slowly fading as well.
By 2016 I see iOS as #1 in Smartphones, WP as #2. Low end Smartphones (what would be considered a Smartphone today) will be the new "feature phone" and I don't count those as Smartphones in 2016. Android will rule there. iOS (Apple using older models of iPhone for the low end of their offering) and WP will play a role here and will provide a path for these feature phone users to migrate to Smartphone users.
The chadbag has spoken! :) Mark my words and let's follow this up in 2016.